Friday, February 9, 2018

Bubble watch part 6 (Pac-12 fail edition)


Arizona (19-6) (9-3) RPI 21 SoS 39
Vital signs:
7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 51
avg RPI win 129
2-3 vs. Group 1
6-3 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  A&M, Alabama, Arizona St
Bad losses:  @Colorado perhaps, Atlantis was a disaster
You do have to remember that there's not that much high-end success on this resume.  I do think they'll get a bump for being a conference champ from the committee, but the @Colorado and @Washington losses are more damaging to them than usual because of the lack of high-end wins.


Arizona St (18-6) (6-6) RPI 34 SoS 66
Vital signs:
7-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 111
avg RPI win 137
3-3 vs. Group 1
7-5 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Kansas, N-Xavier, USC?
Bad losses:  Oregon, @Colorado, and just too many in-conference in general
The high end wins will carry the resume for the time being, but they're losing too many swing games in the conference to be safe.

UCLA (17-7) (8-4) RPI 51 SoS 64
Vital signs:
5-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 68
avg RPI win 143
2-3 vs. Group 1
3-3 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-Kentucky, @Arizona
Bad losses:  @Oregon St, Colorado, @Stanford?
Two high-end wins save the rest of what is a mediocre overall resume.  Did have some other big games, lost them.  It's really your standard, stock version of a bubble profile.  Only 2 true road wins, with many opportunities coming, so there's a resume flaw and a direct path for them to fix it coming up.

USC (17-8) (8-4) RPI 44 SoS 48
Vital signs:
7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 33
avg RPI win 142
2-5 vs. Group 1
4-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-MTSU, N-New Mexico St
Bad losses:  @Stanford, Princeton
Diamond Head has wins over MTSU and NMSU.  Those are better than you think.  Those also aren't enough if those are your best wins.  USC will need to obtain quality wins, and they're sorta kinda running low on opportunities.  The good news is they avoided the bad loss in conference play, mostly.  The bad news is the loss to Princeton removes a lot of that gain.

Washington (17-7) (7-4) RPI 39 SoS 38
Vital signs:
4-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 43
avg RPI win 147
4-3 vs. Group 1
1-3 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Kansas, @USC, Arizona St, Arizona
Bad losses:  Cal, @Wazzu
The good news here is the high end wins are enough to get them to the tourney.  The bad news is there's a couple troubling losses ruining everything.  Their finish will be more about bad loss avoidance than quality win pickups.

Utah (14-9) (6-6) RPI 58 SoS 52
Vital signs:
5-7 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 202
avg RPI win 158
2-6 vs. Group 1
2-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  Mizzou, @Arizona St, Washington?
Bad losses:  @UNLV
Their issue is the raw number of losses, especially in conference...they've had plenty of chances against the upper crust of the conference and lost probably 1 or 2 too many.  It's an uphill climb for them going forward.

I think we can cut off the bubble from there.  Oregon and Stanford lack quality wins.  Colorado has them but has lost a few too many questionable games.

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