Monday, December 30, 2019


There's still an air of projection in these.  Too many upsets have caused a lot of volatility at the top.  I think getting granular with the analysis at this stage in the season is a mistake.  So there's still some projection built in.

Don't read too much into individual teams.  Once again, pay attention to conferences.  Yes, teams get bids, not conferences.  But conference play determines how strong each individual team's resume is.

B1G is in good shape to produce top teams, and I like their odds of getting more than 6 in.
ACC is weaker than normal, but should be fine.
Big East and Big 12 are fine.
Pac-12 should finally be a little stronger than years past.  They're still 6th among power conferences in my book, but a lot closer to the top 5.
SEC might be the one in trouble.  3 bid season is in play if things break badly.

WCC is in real good position.  BYU has a real chance to make it 3 bids out of there.

I'm having a real tough time seeing an at-large bid from anyone outside the top 10 conferences.  UNI has a fighting chance, but that's about it.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Duke, Ohio St, Kansas
The 2 line:  Auburn, Butler, Louisville, Oregon
The 3 line:  San Diego St, Baylor, West Virginia, Maryland
The 4 line:  Villanova, Michigan St, Dayton, Memphis
The 5 line:  Michigan, Wichita St, Virginia, Arizona
The 6 line:  Florida St, Colorado, Kentucky, Creighton
The 7 line:  Penn St, Iowa, Stanford, Marquette
The 8 line:  Xavier, North Carolina, Washington, Arkansas
The 9 line:  St Mary's, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, VCU
The 10 line:  Utah St, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Houston
The 11 line:  Virginia Tech, Northern Iowa, North Carolina St, Florida, St Louis
The 12 line:  BYU, Seton Hall, Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Yale,
The 13 line:  Vermont, Belmont, Akron, Louisiana Tech
The 14 line:  Stephen F Austin, New Mexico St, Delaware, Rider
The 15 line:  Wright St, Hawaii, Arkansas St, Eastern Washington
The 16 line:  North Dakota St, Colgate, Campbell, St Francis(PA), Texas Southern, Morgan St

Next 4 in:
Virginia Tech
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
St Louis
Seton Hall

Last 4 out:

Next 4 out:

Break it down!:
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 6
Pac-12 5
A-10 3

Sunday, December 29, 2019

12/29 recap

West Virginia 67, Ohio St 59 - from what I see, goes down as a neutral site win.  Quality for WVU
Kansas 72, @Stanford 56 - true road wins are never trivial
@LSU 74, Liberty 57 - finally someone beat Liberty
Arkansas 71, @Indiana 64

Hartford 67, @Northwestern 66 - lol
Harvard 71, @Cal 63

12/28 recap

Signature wins:
@Kentucky 78, Louisville 70 (OT) - UK kinda needed a signature win, so here you go

Wisconsin 68, @Tennessee 48 - I thought UT was better than this
Cal St-Fullerton 77, @UCLA 74

12/27 recap

There were literally 2 games this day, but my duty is for daily recaps!

Loyola(MD) and My St Mary's win non-con games at home.  That's it.

12/25 recap

Diamond Head:
Houston 75, Washington 71 - a mild upset, and Houston leaves with the one quality win available in this tournament
Georgia Tech 70, Hawaii 53
Boise St 72, UTEP 67
Ball St 61, Portland 46

12/23 recap

Diamond Head:
Washington 72, Hawaii 61
Houston 70, Georgia Tech 59 - the right two teams made the final here, probably
Boise St 85, Portland 69
UTEP 71, Ball St 70

12/22 recap

South Carolina 70, @Virginia 59 - such a weird loss for UVa.  The type that costs you a full seed line in March.  USC gets a magic elixir to be back in the at-large conversation
Yale 54, @Clemson 45 - hmmm
Xavier 67, @TCU 59 - quality road win here
Radford 73, Richmond 58 - so much for Richmond as a darkhorse contender in the A-10

Diamond Head:
Hawaii 67, UTEP 63
Georgia Tech 74, Boise St 60
Houston 81, Portland 56
Washington 85, Ball St 64 - a service hold day in this tournament for the most part, depending on your feelings of GT being bad or not

12/21 recap

Signature wins:
@Villanova 56, Kansas 55 - I do question the ability of the Big East to provide signature win chances for its teams outside of Nova, so this is a more important win than I'd usually suggest
Ohio St 71, Kentucky 65 - UK might be absorbing too many body blows to be a legitimate contender for the 1 line (and maybe the 2 line, but there's time)
Colorado 78, Dayton 76 (OT) - this is a good neutral site win that should hold up
St John's 70, Arizona 67 - another neutral site win that should hold up well

quality wins:
Butler 70, Purdue 61 - neutral site win, but Purdue might not be good
San Diego St 80, Utah 52 - neutral site win
Indiana 62, Notre Dame 60 - god, too many neutral site games today
Utah St 65, Florida 62
Creighton 67, @Arizona St 60

West Virginia 75, @Youngstown St 64 - road wins are never trivial
Florida St 66, South Florida 60
@Wichita St 73, VCU 63
Harvard 88, @George Washington 75
Missouri 63, Illinois 56
@Oklahoma 53, UCF 52
@Providence 70, Texas 48 - boy this loss looks really dumb on paper
North Carolina 74, UCLA 64
Alabama 92, Belmont 72
Liberty 80, Akron 67 - will you just lose already Liberty
Minnesota 86, Oklahoma St 66
North Dakota 75, @Nebraska 74 - lol
Boston College 64, Cal 60
St Louis 66, Kansas St 63
@Texas A&M 64, Oregon St 49
@DePaul 83, Northwestern 78
USC 70, LSU 68
Iowa 77, Cincinnati 70
St Mary's 68, Nevada 63

Monday, December 23, 2019

12/20 recap

@Georgia 87, SMU 85 (OT)
Norfolk St 72, Bowling Green 67 (OT) - we're stretching if we're calling this the 2nd biggest game of the day.  Ok, let's shut it down here.

12/19 recap

quality wins:
@Seton Hall 62, Maryland 48
@Auburn 79, NC State 73 - I call both these wins short of signature as they're home wins.  Can't emphasize enough that most teams of quality will have a few of these.  (of course, Maryland is better than NCST by a bit)

I don't see much else worth highlighting.  Maybe Houston beating UTEP at home is notable.

12/18 recap

signature wins:
@Gonzaga 94, North Carolina 81 - uh wait, does this count as a signature win anymore?
Utah 69, @Kentucky 66 - and does THIS count?  Probably, yeah, but still.  Uninspired by UK so far, still don't trust Utah
East Tennessee St 74, @LSU 63 - I'll listen to an argument about ETSU's at-large hopes right now

quality wins:
@Cincinnati 78, Tennessee 66 - can't decide whether this is actually a bad loss for UT, or just a quality win for Cincy with no real harm to UT's resume
St Mary's 96, Arizona St 56 - said it plenty by now, but all these wins matter for St Mary's resume

Loyola(Chi) 78, Vanderbilt 70
DePaul 73, @Cleveland St 65 - go away, DePaul
Ball St 65, @Georgia Tech 47
UNC Greensboro 54, @Vermont 53 - this might hold up as a quad 1 win
Richmond 62, @Old Dominion 59 - road wins are never trivial
VCU 76, @Charleston 71 - yeah
Alabama 105, @Samford 87 - yeah
Utah St 76, South Florida 74 (OT) - near disaster for USU's resume

12/17 recap

Florida 83, Providence 51 - neutral site wins usually aren't trivial, but this one might be
@Creighton 83, Oklahoma 73 - this should hold up as a decent home win, and a road loss that isn't too damaging
Purdue 69, @Ohio 51 - road win
@Stanford 64, San Francisco 56 - USF isn't bad, so this is not a trivial result
UTEP 67, UC Irvine 61 - couple of notable mid-majors here
Miami 78, Temple 77

12/16 recap


I got nothing for you on this day.  Does UC Irvine beating Kent St on a neutral court count as notable?  Yeah, I think so.  Evansville lost a road game to Jacksonville St, that looks ugly.  That's all I got for this day.

12/15 recap

@Minnesota 84, Ohio St 71 - road wins are going to be gold this year
@Nebraska 70, Purdue 56

Wofford 68, @North Carolina 64 - I think Wofford has absorbed too many body blows to be serious contenders for an at-large bid, but still.  Woof, UNC
NC State 80, @UNC Greensboro 77 - this will go down as a quality win for NCSU, and a critical blow to fantasy at-large hopes for UNCG
Oklahoma St 61, @Houston 55 - road wins are never trivial
South Carolina 67, @Clemson 54

12/14 recap

signature wins:
Oregon 71, @Michigan 70 (OT) - signature road wins are worth a full seed line, I would guess
Gonzaga 84, @Arizona 80 - Gonzaga's looking really, really good for the 1 line out west
Memphis 51, @Tennessee 47 - signature road wins matter a lot

dumb losses:
@Rutgers 68, Seton Hall 48 - I don't care if it was a road game, it's still a dumb loss
Colgate 67, @Cinncinnati 66 - need to recalibrate my expectations for the AAC

@Kentucky 67, Georgia Tech 53
Auburn 67, St Louis 61 - a better win than most would realize
Michigan St 72, Oakland 49 - creative accounting - this is a neutral site win
@Wake Forest 80, Xavier 78 - a modest upset
Mississippi St 67, Kansas St 61
@Georgetown 89, Syracuse 79
@Arkansas 98, Tulsa 79
@Penn St 73, Alabama 71
@Notre Dame 75, UCLA 61
@Wichita St 80, Oklahoma 75
@New Mexico 69, New Mexico St 62
@Arizona St 79, Georgia 59
Liberty 61, @Vanderbilt 56 - ok time to get serious about Liberty and at-large talk, I think
St Mary's 89, @Cal 77 - road wins are never trivial
BYU 68, Utah St 64 - that might hurt USU a bit.  At-large not a lock.  And it really, really helps BYU

Sunday, December 22, 2019

12/13 recap

Colorado 56, Colorado St 48 - looks like a neutral site win

@Indiana 96, Nebraska 90 (OT) - if you beat Nebraska in overtime, did you really win?

Really light night here.

12/12 recap

Iowa 84, Iowa St 68 - goes down as a neutral site win
Northern Iowa 82, @Grand Canyon 58 - I'd just like to take this space to mention the travesty that is the Iowa state series.  ISU/Iowa used to play UNI/Drake yearly, and now they don't, and instead of just not doing it, they hided behind the guise of the yearly ISU/Iowa series.  Go to hell

There were only 6 games this night.  Rant over.

12/11 recap

@Illinois 71, Michigan 62 - I think one adjustment we're all going to have to make:  most bubble teams will have a signature road win on the resume.  We'll have to adjust accordingly.  Bubble teams will need more than 1, or other resume features.  One win won't be enough.  Seeing an abundance of these wins already
@Rutgers 72, Wisconsin 65 - I mean, if Rutgers is getting one, EVERYONE is getting one

Yale 83, @UMass 80
@South Carolina 90, UNC Asheville 85 (OT) - just a reminder that USC isn't good
@Missouri St 75, Arkansas St 53
@Tulsa 69, Boise St 56

Saturday, December 21, 2019

12/10 recap

Signature wins:
Texas Tech 70, Louisville 57 - goes down as a signature win on a neutral site
@Penn St 76, Maryland 69 - wait, do we have to take Penn St seriously now?
@Baylor 53, Butler 52 - should hold up as a signature win even it it was at home.  Big 12 now really looking good at the top
Northern Iowa 79, @Colorado 76 - and now UNI has a signature win that they can build an at-large resume around
Indiana 57, UConn 54

12/9 recap

@Iowa 72, Minnesota 52

...there were 4 games this day.  What a waste of a day.

12/8 recap

@Virginia 56, North Carolina 47
@Florida St 72, Clemson 53

@Michigan St 77, Rutgers 65
@Purdue 58, Northwestern 44

signature non-con wins:
Gonzaga 83, @Washington 76 - I have a feeling we'll spend the entire season giving Gonzaga the 1 seed out west again.  With this road win in hand, not sure I see how they fail to get there eventually
@Iowa St 76, Seton Hall 66
Dayton 78, St Mary's 68 - there's a neutral site win, in a game of 2 teams that desperately needed it to avoid having to deal with the bubble in a few months

other non-con:
Houston 76, @South Carolina 56
St Louis 86, Tulane 62 - should end up being a decent neutral site win
Wichita St 80, @Oklahoma St 61 - road wins, etc etc
Texas 60, Texas A&M 50
Buffalo 74, @DePaul 69 - FINALLY someone puts an end to this DePaul nonsense
Liberty 70, Grand Canyon 61 - wait, Liberty is undefeated?

12/7 recap

After a slight interruption in coverage, we're back.  I expect to be daily by March, but due to personal reasons, day-to-day availability is spotty at the moment. 

So now we're running recaps from 2 weeks ago.  This might actually be interesting to filter through.

@Maryland 59, Illinois 58 - top 4 seeds don't get taken to the brink by teams like Illinois
@Ohio St 106, Penn St 74
@Wisconsin 84, Indiana 64 - I think we're going to be learning that road wins in the B1G are basically impossible

Syracuse 97, @Georgia Tech 63
Boston College 73, @Notre Dame 72
NC State 91, @Wake Forest 82

other conference play:
@Utah St 77, Fresno St 70 (OT) - good lord that was almost a disaster
New Mexico 79, @Wyoming 65

quality non-con wins:
@Kansas 72, Colorado 58 - the non-con home win that should hold up pretty well
@Baylor 63, Arizona 58 - ditto.  Big 12 looking good here
@Butler 76, Florida 62 - ditto
@Xavier 73, Cincinnati 66
Marquette 73, @Kansas St 65 - not sure KSU is any good, but still, road wins
Georgetown 91, @SMU 74

other notable non-con results:
Memphis 65, @UAB 57 - road wins are never trivial
Villanova 78, @St Joseph's 66 - well, this one might be trivial
@St John's 70, West Virginia 68
@Creighton 95, Nebraska 76
Washington St 63, New Mexico St 54
Arkansas St 66, @Tulsa 63 - this raised an eyebrow of mine
@Santa Clara 71, Cal 52 - another eyebrow raised.  Cal probably isn't any good, but still, these holds at home matter to the WCC
Missouri 64, @Temple 54
@North Dakota St 78, East Tennessee St 68

Friday, December 6, 2019

12/6 recap

@Louisville 64, Pitt 46
Duke 77, @Virginia Tech 63

@Michigan 103, Iowa 91

@Rhode Island 75, Providence 61
@Alabama 78, Stephen F Austin 68
USC 80, @TCU 78

12/5 recap

@Auburn 81, Furman 78 (OT) - a close shave.  Furman looks good again, albeit without the at-large resume punch they had last year
Louisiana Tech 74, @Mississippi St 67 - yeesh
Oklahoma 82, @North Texas 80 - even bad road wins are road wins

12/4 recap

Maryland 72, Notre Dame 51
@Purdue 69, Virginia 40 - I mean, what the hell, Virginia?  Do something on offense
Ohio St 74, @North Carolina 49 - that's a signature road win with a capital everything
@Georgia Tech 73, Nebraska 56
@NC State 69, Wisconsin 54
@Penn St 76, Wake Forest 54

Utah St 71, @San Jose St 59 - your signal that conference play is starting across the country.  SDSU and USU hold serve on night 1
@Utah 102, BYU 95 (OT) - BYU has probably absorbed too many losses to be relevant
Georgetown 81, @Oklahoma St 74 - road wins are never trivial
@San Francisco 76, Cal 64 - and this is why
@DePaul 65, Texas Tech 60 (OT) - we're in an emergency now.  DePaul still hasn't lost and this is a problem

Thursday, December 5, 2019

12/3 recap

@Louisville 58, Michigan 43 - UL starting to build up some currency towards ensuring a 1 seed if they slip up a bit in the ACC.  Meanwhile, Michigan has done plenty already so this doesn't hurt at all
Duke 87, @Michigan St 75 - true road wins for Duke in the non-con are a rare beast.  Because they never play them to begin with
@Indiana 80, Florida St 64 - Indiana needed some resume heft; this will count
Northwestern 82, @Boston College 64 - in spirit, this counts as a B1G/ACC game just as much as the other games
Iowa 68, @Syracuse 54
@Pitt 71, Rutgers 60

@Memphis 71, Bradley 56
Butler 67, @Ole Miss 58
Richmond 80, @Hampton 63 - I'm not sure why Richmond is playing this road game, but still, it's a road win
@Cincinnati 82, Vermont 73
@TCU 81, Illinois St 69
Arizona St 71, @San Francisco 67

12/2 recap

B1G ACC Challenge:  hey it's that time of year again where two big conferences schedule against each other in an effort to shut out other conferences from quality games, hiding behind the guise of a legitimate charity!

Miami 81, @Illinois 79
@Minnesota 78, Clemson 60

Nothing else of note here.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

12/1 recap

Orlando Invl:
Maryland 84, Marquette 63 - Maryland quietly building a resume
USC 77, Harvard 62 - Harvard schedule ambitiously and have probably taken a body blow or two too many
Temple 66, Davidson 53
Fairfield 67, Texas A&M 62 - good lord A&M is bad

Wooden Legacy:
Arizona 73, Wake Forest 66
Providence 80, Pepperdine 77
UCF 77, Charleston 56
Penn 95, Long Beach St 79

@West Virginia 86, Rhode Island 81
@Yale 65, Vermont 52

11/30 recap

UNC Greensboro 65, @Georgetown 61 - UNCG might not be bad, remember
@Richmond 64, Boston College 44 - meanwhile, BC is bad
Stephen F Austin 76, @Arkansas St 57 - yeah, we're paying attention to SFA now
@Cincinnati 72, UNLV 65 (OT)
Tulsa 67, @Vanderbilt 58
Belmont 71, @Middle Tennessee 59

Emerald Coast Classic:
Tennessee 72, VCU 69
Florida St 63, Purdue 60 (OT)

11/29 recap

Battle 4 Atlantis:
Michigan 82, Gonzaga 64 - these are some kind of signature wins Michigan is taking home from Atlantis
North Carolina 78, Oregon 74
Seton Hall 84, Iowa St 76
Alabama 83, Southern Miss 68

NIT Tip Off:
Oklahoma St 78, Ole Miss 37
Penn St 85, Syracuse 64

Orlando Invl:
Maryland 80, Harvard 73
Marquette 101, USC 79
Temple 65, Texas A&M 42
Davidson 67, Fairfield 56

Las Vegas Invl:
Creighton 83, Texas Tech 76 (OT)
San Diego St 83, Iowa 73 - here's your presumptive MWC favorite

Wooden Legacy:
Arizona 92, Penn 82
Wake Forest 88, Long Beach St 75
Charleston 63, Providence 55
UCF 78, Pepperdine 65

Emerald Coast Classic:
Purdue 59, VCU 56
Florida St 60, Tennessee 57

Louisville 71, Western Kentucky 54 - goes down as a neutral site win
@St Mary's 81, Utah St 73 - that Wisky loss is going to look weird on St Mary's resume, but they're in good shape again
DePaul 73, @Minnesota 68 - oh lord DePaul might actually be good for real
@LSU 73, Missouri St 58

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

11/28 recap

Battle 4 Atlantis:
Gonzaga 73, Oregon 72 (OT) - signature win alert.  Matters more for Gonzaga than most
Michigan 73, North Carolina 64 - there's a signature win too
Iowa St 104, Alabama 89
Seton Hall 81, Southern Miss 56

Orlando Invl:
Maryland 76, Temple 69
Harvard 62, Texas A&M 51 - there's one to revive the at-large hopes, if only modestly
USC 54, Fairfield 47
Marquette 73, Davidson 63

Las Vegas Invl:
Iowa 72, Texas Tech 61
San Diego St 83, Creighton 62

Wooden Legacy:
Arizona 93, Pepperdine 91
Long Beach St 66, Providence 65
Wake Forest 65, Charleston 56 - wincing a bit, that was a real chance for the CAA to get some street cred
Penn 68, UCF 67

Barclays Center Classic:
Memphis 83, NC State 78 - matters more for Memphis than it would for most teams.  Remember, AAC

11/27 recap

Kansas 90, Dayton 84 (OT) - rough for Dayton:  Georgia win won't move the needle; will the Va Tech win do that?
BYU 90, Virginia Tech 77 - BYU gets a couple decent wins, not sure it's enough to move the needle but it's a lot better than nothing.  Heck, they leave with better resume builders than Dayton, as they beat UCLA who is better than Georgia
Michigan St 75, UCLA 62
Georgia 80, Chaminade 77

Battle 4 Atlantis:
North Carolina 76, Alabama 67
Gonzaga 94, Southern Miss 69 - wait, how did Southern Miss get invited to this rave?
Oregon 71, Seton Hall 69 - man, that's a brutal draw.  One of these teams had to go to the losers' bracket?  That's a resume killer
Michigan 83, Iowa St 76

Preseason NIT:
Ole Miss 74, Penn St 72
Oklahoma St 86, Syracuse 72 - I'm not particularly excited about any of these 4 teams

West Virginia 75, Wichita St 63 - WVU gets the two neutral site wins here
Northern Iowa 78, South Carolina 72

Las Vegas Classic:
Oregon St 83, San Jose St 48

Cayman Islands:
George Mason 68, New Mexico St 64
Nebraska 74, South Florida 67
Colorado St 79, Washington St 69
Loyola(Chi) 68, Old Dominion 61

Fort Myers:
Pitt 72, Northwestern 59 - the 15th best ACC team wins two here.  Go figure
Bradley 73, Kansas St 60

Gulf Coast:
Wright St 71, Miami(OH) 66
LaSalle 81, South Alabama 76 (OT)
Drake 63, Murray St 53
Northeastern 79, Weber St 69

Gotham Classic:
St Louis 64, @Boston College 54 - true road wins matter

11/26 recap

Kansas 71, BYU 56
Dayton 89, Virginia Tech 62 - VT and Georgia aren't the most impactful wins for Dayton, really.  But they get Kansas now
Michigan St 93, Georgia 85
UCLA 74, Chaminade 48

HOF Classic:
Oklahoma 77, Missouri 66
Butler 68, Stanford 67 - Butler gets the two neutral site wins here

Legends Classic:
Auburn 79, Richmond 65 - two decent neutral site wins for Auburn here
New Mexico 59, Wisconsin 50 - Wisky isn't good, folks

MGM Resorts Main Event:
Colorado 71, Clemson 67 - two decent neutral site wins for Colorado here
TCU 64, Wyoming 47

Cancun Challenge:
Wichita St 70, South Carolina 47
West Virginia 60, Northern Iowa 55

Gulf Coast:
Drake 59, Northeastern 56
Murray St 69, Weber St 68
South Alabama 82, Miami(OH) 71
LaSalle 72, Wright St 70

Cayman Islands:
Colorado St 61, Loyola(Chi) 60
New Mexico St 65, South Florida 45
Washington St 66, Old Dominion 50
George Mason 85, Nebraska 66

Arizona St 67, @Princeton 65 - road wins are never trivial
@DePaul 88, Central Michigan 75 - DePaul is undefeated.  I'm so confused
Stephen F Austin 85, @Duke 83 - lol

Monday, December 2, 2019

11/25 recap

Virginia Tech 71, Michigan St 66 - whoa.  Significant all around.  Va Tech will be swimming around in signature win chances in the this helps.  It's one less one they gotta get in the ACC.  Biggest news might be trapping MSU on the loser's side of the bracket and hurting their SoS a bit.  Also depriving other teams of a signature win chance against them
Dayton 80, Georgia 61 - and it's Dayton who gets hurt by the upset the most
Kansas 93, Chaminade 63
BYU 78, UCLA 63

HOF Classic:
Butler 63, Missouri 52
Stanford 73, Oklahoma 54

Legends Classic:
Auburn 84, New Mexico 59
Richmond 62, Wisconsin 52 - Richmond is better than usual, and Wisky is worse than usual.  Gotta remember that

Cayman Islands Classic:
New Mexico St 78, Colorado St 70 (OT)
South Florida 66, Loyola(Chi) 55
George Mason 60, Old Dominion 53
Nebraska 82, Washington St 71 - kind of funny the two P5 schools play each other early in this one.  Some good mid-major names in this tourney, ODU and Loyola lose reasonable chances at resume-enhancers here

Gulf Coast Showcase:
South Alabama 74, Northeastern 62
Miami(OH) 67, Drake 59
Wright St 72, Weber St 57
La Salle 75, Murray St 64 - lots of fun mid-majors in this one.  I like this tourney

Paradise Jam:
Grand Canyon 68, Illinois St 63
Western Kentucky 69, Fordham 64
Cincinnati 81, Valparaiso 77 (OT)
Nevada 77, Bowling Green 62 - dammit BGU one day after I was on your bandwagon

Fort Meyers:
Pitt 63, Kansas St 59
Northwestern 78, Bradley 51

@Ohio St 71, Kent St 52
Arkansas 62, @Georgia Tech 61 (OT)

11/24 recap

Paradise Jam:
Nevada 84, Valparaiso 59
Bowling Green 91, Cincinnati 84 (OT) - ok, this is one that made me notice.  Let's start up the dream of a MAC at-large bid again!

Myrtle Beach:
Baylor 87, Villanova 78 - shouldn't be a game that will alter the trajectory of either team significantly....probably just a seed line game
Mississippi St 81, Coastal Carolina - well this tourney didn't do much for anyone's resume after all, IMO.  We know Baylor/Nova will be fine, and everyone else is meh
Ohio 75, Middle Tennessee 63
Tulane 65, Utah 61

MGM Resorts Main Event:
Colorado 56, Wyoming 41
Clemson 62, TCU 60 (OT)

Charleston Classic:
Florida 70, Xavier 65 - there's a quality win.  Just like Nova/Baylor, shouldn't change the trajectory of either team, but it's worth a seed line, sure
UConn 80, Miami 55
Buffalo 75, Missouri 74 - useful for mid-major pecking order determinations.  MVC sucks again
Towson 76, St Joseph's 64

HOF Tip-Off:
Virginia 48, Arizona St 45 - go to hell, Virginia
St John's 78, UMass 63
over in the meh bracket side, Rider beat Vermont.  aw man

Jamaica Classic:
Utah St 68, North Texas 59
LSU 96, Rhode Island 83

Islands of the Bahamas:
George Washington 66, Milwaukee 63
Rice 77, East Carolina 69
Evansville 115, Morgan St 112 (3OT)
Liberty 62, UMKC 49 - Liberty won this tournament.  Neat

Junkanoo Jam:
Indiana St 84, Air Force 74
Duquesne 71, Loyola Marymount 50

Saturday, November 30, 2019

11/23 recap

HOF Tip-Off:
Arizona St 80, St John's 67
Virginia 58, UMass 46

Paradise Jam:
Fordham 70, Grand Canyon 58
Western Kentucky 83, Illinois St 69

Islands of the Bahamas:
Milwaukee 62, Morgan St 57
UMKC 74, East Carolina 68
George Washington 78, Evansville 70
Liberty 71, Rice 59

non-tourney rubble:
@Memphis 87, Ole Miss 86
DePaul 72, @Boston College 67 - everybody panic.  DePaul is 6-0 (with a bunch of empty calorie wins, but still)
SMU 72, @UNLV 68
St Louis 60, Belmont 55 - important win for a StL team that should be an at-large factor

interesting mid-major stuff:
@UCF 72, Charleston 71
@Penn St 58, Yale 56 - Yale showing well in a road game
Penn 81, @Providence 75 - Providence sucks
Boise St 82, @Pacific 76 (3OT)
Texas Southern 98, @Northern Kentucky 96 (2OT)

MAAC/ASun Challenge:
Did you know there was one?  Neat.  Looks like 2 teams from each conference (Iona, Monmouth, Kennesaw St, Stetson) convering on a neutral site.  Nothing of impact happened, but it existed.  Bully to them.

Summit/WAC Challenge:
And there was one of these too!  This is a more traditional home/away setup.
Utah Valley 68, @North Dakota St 62 - that's a good poach for the WAC

11/22 recap

2K Empire Classic:
Duke 81, Georgetown 73 - ho hum for Duke here.  These wins won't move the needle for them
Texas 62, California 45

Myrtle Beach:
Baylor 77, Coastal Carolina 65
Villanova 83, Mississippi St 76 - service holds for the top 2 teams here
Tulane 86, Middle Tennessee 74
Utah 80, Ohio 66

Jamaica Classic:
Utah St 80, LSU 78 - you don't need me to tell you this was more critical for USU given general access to signature win chances
Rhode Island 60, North Texas 47 - if you're wondering, I have to imagine they made the top 2 teams play each other in the semis to guarantee a signature win chance for USU/LSU
we ain't covering the lower half of the tourney here, but UMBC and Nicholls lost, which is weird

Paradise Jam:
Valparaiso 78, Grand Canyon 74
Cincinnati 66, Illinois St 65
Nevada 74, Fordham 60
Bowling Green 77, Western Kentucky 75

Xavier 75, UConn 74 (2OT)
Florida 78, Miami 58
Missouri St 71, St Joseph's 69
Buffalo 76, Towson 73

Islands of the Bahamas:
Liberty 78, Morgan St 48
Rice 75, Milwaukee 69
UMKC 74, George Washington 68
East Carolina 85, Evansville 68

Junkanoo Jam:
Indiana St 72, Loyola Marymount 60
Duquesne 69, Air Force 63

non-tournament games do exist:
@Oregon 78, Houston 66
Wake Forest 82, @Davidson 70
Temple 70, @USC 61 - a quality road win?

Thursday, November 28, 2019

11/21 recap

Tournaments start.

2K Empire Classic:
Duke 87, California 52
Georgetown 82, Texas 66 - I don't know if Georgetown is ready for the bubble this year, but this is a start

Myrtle Beach:
Villanova 98, Middle Tennessee 69
Baylor 76, Ohio 53
Mississippi St 80, Tulane 66
Coastal Carolina 79, Utah 57 - what the hell happened here?  Disaster for Utah who's now trapped on the obviously wrong side of the draw.  I do wonder about these tournaments, if it's worth going to 8 teams instead of 4.  Everyone good is sweating out a quarterfinal

Charleston Classic:
Xavier 73, Towson 51
Miami 74, Missouri St 70
Florida 70, St Joseph's 62
UConn 79, Buffalo 68 - service holds in this tourney, and chances by the boards for good mid-majors

Junkanoo Jam:
Loyola Marymount 78, Air Force 64
Duquesne 74, Indiana St 71

@Arizona St 71, South Dakota St 64
Omaha 85, @Washington St 77 - ok the Pac-12 is starting to slip again
@TCU 59, UC Irvine 58 - wouldn't worry about the closeness of this game
@Notre Dame 64, Toledo 62 (OT) - nor this one
New Mexico 78, @New Mexico St 77
Hofstra 88, @UCLA 78 - ok time to restart the Pac-12 fail tracker

11/20 recap

@Georgia 82, Georgia Tech 78 - if I'm starting here, you know it was a garbage day
James Madison 80, @Old Dominion 78 - surprised by this one
Northern Kentucky 59, @Ball St 57
Belmont 73, @Lipscomb 67
Texas St 64, @UNLV 57
Arkansas St 80, @Colorado St 78
@Boise St 72, BYU 68 (OT)
San Diego St 66, @San Diego 49
St Mary's 68, @Fresno St 58

A weird day of a lot of road mid-major wins.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

11/19 recap

dumb loss of the day:
Boston U 78, @South Carolina 70 - I'm not sure BU was even supposed to be great

@Davidson 91, Nevada 71 - a reminder Nevada is way down this year
Charleston 76, @Marshall 66 - road wins are never trivial
@Murray St 79, Southern Illinois 66

Mid-majors showing well:
@Kansas 75, East Tennessee St 63
@Virginia 61, Vermont 55
@Rhode Island 70, Nicholls 65 - Nicholls seems to be a problem this year.  Stretching URI, LSU, Illinois to the brink and beating Pitt
@Alabama 81, Furman 73
In all these cases, longshot at-large hopes probably disappeared

Mid-majors showing really, really well:
Radford 67, @Northwestern 56

11/18 recap

SMU 59, @Evansville 57 - I hope no one boarded the Evansville bandwagon quickly after the UK game.  That's probably gonna go down at a fluke.  SMU does pick up a useful road win the process though

here's an impossibly dumb upset:
Montana Tech 74, @Montana 72

I'm not seeing much else that matters on this day.  Utah Valley hung with Kentucky for a full game; looks like the WAC should be a solid mid-major conference again.  William & Mary hung in against Oklahoma at Oklahoma.  Nothing else approaching a notable result.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

11/17 recap

Seton Hall 83, @St Louis 66 - this should last as a signature road win for the resume
@UConn 62, Florida 59 - UF doing legitimate damage to its resume early in the year

quick hitters:
@Arizona 83, New Mexico St 53
@Wisconsin 77, Marquette 61
UCF 67, @Illinois St 65
@Oklahoma St 64, Yale 57

Monday, November 18, 2019

11/16 recap

Tennessee 75, Washington 62 - a notable neutral site win
@LSU 75, Nicholls 65 - Nicholls is frisky!  won at Pitt and hung with LSU and Illinois.  Notable
Vermont 70, @St John's 68 - don't laugh, but Vermont has signature win chances coming up.  This is getting serious

@Old Dominion 76, Northeastern 69 - mid-major road win that caught my eye
Belmont 100, @Boston College 85 - another one
Temple 70, @LaSalle 65
San Francisco 76, @Southern Illinois 60

Buffalo 88, Harvard 76 - MAC favorites > Ivy favorites
USC 76, @Nevada 66

11/15 recap

Gonzaga 79, @Texas A&M 79 - any road win by 30 is a signature win
@Xavier 59, Missouri 56 - this should hold up as a quality win by March
West Virginia 68, @Pitt 53
@Rhode Island 93, Alabama 79
@Nebraska 90, South Dakota St 73 - this is actually a pretty terrible loss given how bad Nebraska is
BYU 72, @Houston 71 - a road win of modest value.  Worth monitoring BYU in the WCC just in case
@Utah 73, Minnesota 69

This actually feels like a light impact day.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

11/14 recap

Michigan St 76, @Seton Hall 73 - there's a quality road win.  MSU will be fine.  And Seton Hall will be fine too, although I wonder about their signature win access in the Big East.  Could've really used this as a lynchpin of the resume

Penn St 81, @Georgetown 66
@Richmond 93, Vanderbilt 92 (OT)

@East Tennessee St 61, Winthrop 58 - why it's so brutal as a midmajor.  Playing these kinds of road games all the time.  This shouldn't be a damaging loss, but you know it will be

11/13 recap

@Ohio St 76, Villanova 51 - as you can guess by now, I only put modest stock into big games where the home team holds serve
@VCU 84, LSU 82 - this is another one of those types of games.  Although with the A-10, VCU might've needed this a bit more than LSU

St Joseph's 96, @UConn 87 - here's a result that's mildly curious.  UConn can't really maintain at-large hopes with these kinds of losses

Oklahoma St 73, @Charleston 54 - true road win over the CAA favorites will absolutely carry value in March

@Marquette 65, Purdue 55
@Northwestern 72, Providence 63 - the Gavitt games aren't really providing a lot of intrigue here

Saturday, November 16, 2019

11/12 recap

Evansville 67, @Kentucky 64 - uhhhhhhhhhhhh

Check back in 3 months to see what I think of this.  Can't take Evansville seriously as a tourney threat.  Kentucky will be fine long term but it can absolutely cost them the 1 line in March

Oregon 82, Memphis 74 - goes down as a sexy neutral site win for Oregon

status quo games:
@Xavier 63, Missouri 58 (OT)
@Michigan 79, Creighton 69
@Butler 64, Minnesota 56
@Cal 79, UNLV 75 (OT)

Pitt 71, @Robert Morris 57 - hey, any true road win has value
Auburn 70, @South Alabama 69 - and this is why.  Any road win is a quality win now
@Santa Clara 70, Washington St 62 - and this is really why
Miami 79, @UCF 70
Oklahoma 77, Oregon St 69 - neutral site win

moderately interesting mid-major related games:
Coppin St 76, @Loyola(Chi) 72 - the hell happened here?
@Tennessee 82, Murray St 63
@USC 84, South Dakota St 66

11/11 recap

Winthrop 61, @St Mary's 59 - wait, what?  A lot of goodwill from a road win at Wisconsin is gone with this (although if you had a choice of a split, you'd rather have the good win and bad loss, than a normal loss and normal win).

Is Winthrop in play?  Not really.  Schedule doesn't really give them a realistic chance to build a resume, and the Big South isn't good enough to support any kind of candidacy.

DePaul 93, @Iowa 78 - is DePaul finally good?  Probably not, but I don't know how to explain this one.

The rest of the schedule this day is pretty barren.

Monday, November 11, 2019

11/10 recap

Florida St 63, @Florida 51 - a signature road win.  More interested in what this does to Florida, as opportunities to get these back in the SEC are more limited than they are in the ACC.  These sting the resumes a bit

@Arizona 90, Illinois 69
Vermont 66, @Bucknell 63 - two road wins now for Vermont.  This helps the seed line

...actually there's not much going on for this day.

11/9 recap

Texas 70, @Purdue 66 - true road win for Texas.  These things matter on the resume
Nicholls St 75, @Pitt 70 - speaking of true road way to describe this other than catastrophic for Pitt, but I don't think they were going anywhere anyways
Southern Utah 79, @Nebraska 78 (2OT) - speaking of going nowhere...
San Diego St 76, @BYU 71 - this should hold up as a quality road win
Kansas St 60, @UNLV 56 (OT) - this one not as much, but still, road win
@Oregon St 80, Iowa St 74
Oklahoma 71, Minnesota 62 - looks like a neutral site win

Most of the other games are of the cupcake variety, or of the mid-major on mid-major variety.
Of note:
LaSalle beats Iona at home in OT
road wins for Delaware (>SIU), Wright St (>MiamiOH), UMass (>Fairfield), Middle Tennessee (>Lipscomb), Northern Iowa (>NIU), Western Michigan (>Milwaukee), South Dakota St (>CSUB).

Saturday, November 9, 2019

11/8 recap

Catastrophic losses of the day:
Merrimack 71, @Northwestern 61 - what the hell
@Furman 87, Loyola(Chi) 63 - MVC is a tire fire again

@Colorado 81, Arizona St 71 - someone help me figure this out, does this count in the Pac-12 standings?

neutral site games:
Auburn 76, Davidson 66 - neutral site wins are always useful
Washington 67, Baylor 64 - hey, the Pac-12 isn't throwing up on itself this year!

@Kansas 74, UNC Greensboro 62 - UNCG playing a relatively tight game
North Carolina 78, @UNC Wilmington 62 - notable because this goes down as a true road win for UNC
Vermont 61, @St Bonaventure 58 - true road win for the AEast faves
@Northeastern 84, Harvard 79 - yes a road loss, but not one Harvard could afford for any hope of an at-large
Illinois 83, @Grand Canyon 71 - road wins are never trivial

Thursday, November 7, 2019

11/7 recap

Not much happened.  Winthrop won a road game and it might be the most notable thing.  Rutgers barely beat Bryant at home, but that's Rutgers.  UAB got a road win at Troy, okay.  I got nothin' else today.

11/6 recap

@North Carolina 76, Notre Dame 65
Virginia 48, @Syracuse 34 - goddammit Virginia
@Boston College 77, Wake Forest 70
@Pitt 63, Florida St 61

Signature wins:
@Ohio St 64, Cincinnati 56 - probably won't have as much impact as you'd hope, as this is a home win, but still
@Illinois St 79, Belmont 72 - this should hold some value.  And Belmont's at large hopes are gone really early this time around

Not a lot going on this night.  Plenty of service holds.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

11/5 recap

Welcome to daily recaps!  A quick look at what games actually mattered.

Kentucky 69, Michigan St 62
Duke 68, Kansas 66 - you won't see me say too much on these heavyweight matchups.  Their impact is obvious.  Top teams playing for positioning on the 1 line.

They're playing league games already.  20 game conference schedule now.
Louisville 87, @Miami 74
Virginia Tech 67, @Clemson 60
Georgia Tech 82, @NC State 81 (OT)

Signature wins:
St Mary's 65, @Wisconsin 63 (OT) - when you play in the WCC, signature win chances are scant.  Very important pickup, even if Wisky is down
Penn 81, @Alabama 70 - probably the most notable mid-major win of the day

Notable games:
Utah 79, @Nevada 74 - just to remind you that Nevada has receded
UC Riverside 66, @Nebraska 47 - well that's a dumb loss
Davenport 82, @Grand Canyon 73 - GCU was actually supposed to be good, I think
@Valparaiso 79, Toledo 77
@Northern Iowa 58, Old Dominion 53
@St Joseph's 86, Bradley 81
Little Rock 67, @Missouri St 66 - oops.  This was a weird opening night for the MVC
@Kansas St 67, North Dakota St 54 - this win should look better than people think

Most other games are of the service hold varieties, where better teams held home floor over early cupcakes.  We don't mention them in here.

Monday, November 4, 2019


A more full post will follow tomorrow, but for one night, let's just absorb this seed list, shall we?

Things to remember:  I normally megaloathe preseason brackets.  I'm not a big fan.  I prefer to use actual information instead of conjecture, although I do have to use conjecture for the first month or so anyways.  So don't read much of anything into where I have a particular team.  It doesn't matter.

What DOES matter is the number of bids per conference.  This is indicative of what I think the strength of each conference is.  Look for trends, not for specific seeds of specific teams.

Season tomorrow.  Bracket tomorrow.  Seed list NOW.

The 1 line:  Michigan St, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville
The 2 line:  North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova
The 3 line:  Maryland, Florida, Virginia, Memphis
The 4 line:  Oregon, Baylor, Ohio St, Seton Hall
The 5 line:  Texas Tech, LSU, Tennessee, Purdue
The 6 line:  Colorado, Arizona, Marquette, Cincinnati
The 7 line:  Iowa St, Michigan, St Mary's, VCU
The 8 line:  Houston, Xavier, Iowa, North Carolina St
The 9 line:  Utah St, Florida St, Texas, Auburn
The 10 line:  Wisconsin, Mississippi St, Creighton, Washington
The 11 line:  Wichita St, Davidson, San Diego St, Arizona St, Syracuse, Oklahoma St
The 12 line:  Missouri St, Harvard, Western Kentucky, Buffalo
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Charleston, Belmont, East Tennessee St
The 14 line:  North Dakota St, Iona, UC-Irvine, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line:  Texas-Arlington, Liberty, Colgate, Vermont
The 16 line:  Radford, Weber St, LIU Brooklyn, Stephen F Austin, North Carolina Central, Grambling

Next 4 in:
Wichita St

Last 4 in:
San Diego St
Arizona St
Oklahoma St

Last 4 out:
Notre Dame

Next 4 out:

Break it down!:
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 5
Pac-12 5
A-10 2

Sunday, March 17, 2019

FINAL NIT projections

The 1 line:  UNC Greensboro, Alabama, TCU, Indiana
The 2 line:  Furman, Texas, North Carolina St, Creighton
The 3 line:  Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line:  Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line:  Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line:  Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, Hofstra
The 7 line:  Harvard, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line:  Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St

Last 4 in:  BYU, Utah, Oregon St, Toledo,
Last 4 out:  East Tennessee St, Wichita St, San Francisco, Fresno St

1) UNC Greensboro vs. 8) Campbell
4) Nebraska vs. 5) Arkansas
3) Georgetown vs. 6) Hofstra
2) North Carolina St vs. 7) Wright St

1) Alabama vs. 8) Norfolk St
4) Davidson vs. 5) Providence
3) Clemson vs. 6) Toledo
2) Furman vs. 7) Harvard

1) Indiana vs. 8) St Francis(PA)
4) Xavier vs. 5) Dayton
3) Lipscomb vs. 6) Utah
2) Texas vs. 7) South Dakota St

1) TCU vs. 8) Sam Houston St
4) Colorado vs. 5) BYU
3) Memphis vs. 6) Oregon St
2) Creighton vs. 7) Loyola(Chi)


The 1 line:  Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line:  Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line:  Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Iowa St, Auburn, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line:  Mississippi St, Marquette, Buffalo, Maryland
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Minnesota
The 9 line:  Oklahoma, Baylor, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line:  UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line:  VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line:  Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  St Louis, Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St
The 14 line:  UC Irvine, Vermont, Bradley, Yale
The 15 line:  Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

My official final bubble is 5 teams playing 3 spots.

Last 3 in:
Ohio St

Last 2 out:


Balance became an issue.  Had to send Tennessee west.

1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/Prairie View A&M
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Florida
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Auburn vs. 12) Murray St
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Bradley
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) St Mary's
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) UCF

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/North Carolina Central
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Louis
5) Villanova vs. 12) Oregon
3) Florida St vs. 14) Yale
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa

1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Minnesota vs. 9) Baylor
@San Jose
4) Kansas vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) Arizona St

1) Duke vs. 16) Iona
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Liberty
3) Houston vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Indiana
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington

3/17 recap

B1G finals:
Michigan St 65, Michigan 60

SEC finals:
Auburn 84, Tennessee 64 - Auburn gains a seed line late.  Let's see if the committee cares.  Gonzaga to the 1 line

AAC finals:
Cincinnati 69, Houston 57 - well, that settled the 2 line debate for Houston

Ivy finals:
Yale 97, Harvard 85

A-10 finals:
St Louis 55, St Bonaventure 53

Fun Belt finals:
Georgia St 73, UT Arlington 64


1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/North Carolina Central
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Oklahoma
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Bonaventure
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Indiana
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Washington

1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Murray St
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Auburn vs. 11) St Mary's
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) Montana
7) Nevada vs. 10) Iowa

1) Tennessee vs. 16) Iona
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Minnesota
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Villanova vs. 12) Liberty
3) Florida St vs. 14) Harvard
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Louisville vs. 10) UCF

1) Duke vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Baylor vs. 9) Florida
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Oregon
3) Houston vs. 14) Bradley
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Arizona St

Saturday, March 16, 2019


Moving Duke to #2 overall.  I wouldn't argue with anyone who moves them to #1 overall, and their #2 SoS is sterling.  Just feel like Virginia kept a cleaner sheet throughout the year.

Gonzaga/UNC/Tennessee/Kentucky can go in almost any order.  Gonzaga's SoS hung tough all year - 52 overall.  I think I move Tennessee to 3rd as they kept the cleanest sheet all year (no losses outside Q1a).

This is an unusual case where we have a lot of feedback within the top 6 teams.  Duke swept Virginia; Gonzaga beat Duke but lost to Tennessee/UNC; Tennessee took 2 of 3 off of UK; UNC took 2 of 3 off of Duke , Kentucky beat UNC.  That's an incredible amount of feedback, and it also instructs us to one inevitable problem:  someone's gonna get seeded right behind a team they beat, and there's no way to avoid that.  With that in mind, I think the committee gives the West to UNC, knowing Gonzaga can be the 2 in the west.  But boy, I don't feel very confident about this call.

People think Michigan St can be on the 1 line...don't see it.  They're closed out of the feedback loop I mentioned above, and a couple sloppy losses doom them.  I've been debating Houston vs. Michigan and have changed my mind a few times already.  I reserve the right to change my mind again.

I almost put Kansas on the 3 line, but I think the committee eye tests them down to the 4 line.  No arguments if they move up, though.

I almost moved Villanova higher.  13 Q2 wins!  But the Big East was such a Q2 factory.  They had 8 wins alone in Q2b, and I almost have to admit their 13 Q2 win total is a bit of a byproduct of the arbitrary cutoffs.  I think the 5 line is fair for them.  As for Va Tech, I almost pulled the trigger to move them down to a 6.  I think there's a legit argument there.  That's another case where I think the eye test will be used.

I did some seed scrubbing in the lower lines, but those are much less interesting to write about.  To the bubble we go.

I dunno, I'm staring at Indiana's wins, and every other bubble team's wins, and I'm having a tougher time thinking they'll be left out.  Same kinda vibe I have with Texas.  I'm looking at the TCU/Ohio St/Belmont/Temple gaggle and seeing the same generic problem of lack of impact wins.  I'm going with the compromise solution for now (Indiana in, Texas out), but man, I'm waffling.

We've seen 15-loss teams sneak in (but they're usually something like 19-15).  Does 17-15 make it?  16-16 probably can't.

I'm also moving up Creighton a bit to hedge my bet.  Don't see them making it but I see a lot of similar characteristics to bubble teams in their profile.

It's brutal that I keep slipping these SoCon teams further down but there's so much traffic still on the bubble this late.  Brutal for Furman, who I had in like 2 days ago.  A-10 and Pac-12 poachings cost 2 spots, then the executive call on Indiana.

The PIG has moved up to the 11 line, which is a big BIG BIG deal.  The way it had been lined up, one of them would've had to be sent to San Jose.  Not so now.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, North Carolina
The 2 line:  Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line:  Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line:  Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Mississippi St, Iowa St, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line:  Marquette, Buffalo, Auburn, Maryland
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor
The 9 line:  Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line:  UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line:  VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line:  Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St, St Bonaventure
The 14 line:  UC Irvine, Harvard, Vermont, Bradley
The 15 line:  Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

Next 4 in:
Arizona St

Last 4 in:
St John's
Ohio St

Last 4 out:

Next 4 out:
North Carolina St
UNC Greensboro

NIT lines:
The 1 line:  Temple, Belmont, Furman, Texas
The 2 line:  North Carolina St, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Alabama
The 3 line:  Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line:  Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line:  Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line:  Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
The 7 line:  Hofstra, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line:  Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St

Last 4 in:  Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
Last 4 out:  Wichita St, San Francisco, South Carolina, Fresno St
Next 4 out:  Butler, St Louis, South Florida, Utah Valley

3/16 recap

ACC finals:
Duke 73, Florida St 63

SEC semis:
Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78 - god, what a mess the 1 line is now.  Thoughts coming very soon
Auburn 65, Florida 62

B1G semis:
Michigan St 67, Wisconsin 55 - it's all window dressing at this point for all B1G teams, they're locked into seeds IMO
Michigan 76, Minnesota 49

AAC semis:
Houston 61, Memphis 58
Cincinnati 66, Wichita St 63 - 2 very important service holds means the committee is freed up tomorrow to do some extra bracketing.  Thank God

Big East finals:
Villanova 74, Seton Hall 72

Big 12 finals:
Iowa St 78, Kansas 66 - KU's seed is going to be fascinating

Pac-12 finals:
Oregon 68, Washington 48

MWC finals:
Utah St 64, San Diego St 57

A-10 semis:
St Bonaventure 68, Rhode Island 51
St Louis 67, Davidson 44 - oh god, what happened to the A-10 tournament.  This is a tire fire of a final

MAC finals:
Buffalo 87, Bowling Green 73 - one day, my dream of a multi-bid MAC will come to fruition

AEast finals:
Vermont 66, UMBC 49

CUSA finals:
Old Dominion 62, Western Kentucky 56

Southland finals:
Abilene Christian 77, New Orleans 60

WAC finals:
New Mexico St 89, Grand Canyon 57

MEAC finals:
North Carolina Central 50, Norfolk St 47

SWAC finals:
Prairie View A&M 92, Texas Southern 86

Big Sky finals:
Montana 68, Eastern Washington 62

Big West finals:
UC Irvine 92, Cal St Fullerton 64

Ivy semis:
Harvard 66, Penn 58
Yale 83, Princeton 77

Fun Belt semis:
Georgia St 59, Texas St 46
UT Arlington 67, Georgia Southern 58

Friday, March 15, 2019



The 1 line:  Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan St, Houston
The 3 line:  Michigan, LSU, Florida St, Texas Tech
The 4 line:  Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Auburn, Marquette
The 6 line:  Buffalo, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa St
The 7 line:  Nevada, Wofford, Louisville, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Baylor, Ole Miss, Syracuse
The 9 line:  Oklahoma, Washington, Minnesota, VCU
The 10 line:  UCF, Florida, Arizona St, Iowa
The 11 line:  St John's, Utah St, St Mary's, Ohio St, TCU
The 12 line:  Belmont, Temple, Davidson, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line:  Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line:  Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  North Dakota St, Abilene Christian, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Right now my bubble is 22 teams playing 10 spots.  I like to widen the bubble late; we'll spend the next 48 hours paring these teams down, on both ends.  If your team is above this; you're in the lockbox and I see no rational argument to keep you out.  If your team is below this; you suck and have no rational path to an at-large bid.

Bubble in:

Next 4 in:
Arizona St
St John's

Last 4 in:
Ohio St

Last 4 out:
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St

Next 4 out:

Bubble inception:

3/15 recap

ACC semis:
Florida St 69, Virginia 59 - you know, if you really wanted to, you could put 4 ACC teams on the top 2 lines.  FSU's floor is now the 3 line.  Virginia....I think is still #1 overall, but I gotta look at this closer if Duke wins tomorrow
Duke 74, North Carolina 73 - I don't think the committee will put 3 ACC teams on the top line, so I think UNC is kinda screwed.  But they have a resume worthy of the 1 line.  Maybe UVa/Duke/UNC/Gonzaga on the 1 line, UK/UT winner as the top 2?  I doubt they'd pull that trigger.

SEC quarters:
Kentucky 73, Alabama 55 - boy, I don't know about Alabama.  Don't think I can do it
Tennessee 83, Mississippi St 76 - UK/UT for the 1 line, IMO
Florida 76, LSU 73 - and there goes LSU from the 1 line....and 2 line conversation.  I was always a little aggressive with LSU the past couple weeks, thinking a dual SEC title would carry weight.  But without this, and Michigan/FSU/Houston charging, I'm moving them to the 3 line.  Florida probably has to be in now, btw
Auburn 73, South Carolina 64 - Auburn losing a chance at a signature win does kinda hurt.  Florida won't move the needle

Big East semis:
Seton Hall 81, Marquette 79 - I'm going to mis-seed these teams by at least 2 lines, I guarantee.  I have no idea what to do
Villanova 71, Xavier 67 (OT) - I just don't think the case can be made for X.  In the end, no longshot BE hopeful comes through

B1G quarters:
Michigan St 77, Ohio St 70 - unfortunately for MSU, with all the ACC teams balling out and UK/UT happening, the 1 line door is shut for them.  OSU will be a team I debate until the very end
Michigan 74, Iowa 53 - I'm going to flip my mind on Houston/Michigan for the last 2 seed about 574 times the next day or so, fair warning
Minnesota 75, Purdue 73 - well that's one less bubble team to worry about
Wisconsin 66, Nebraska 62

Big 12 quarters:
Iowa St 63, Kansas St 59 - can we just seed the entire Big 12 on the 5 and 6 lines and be done with it?  KSU doesn't have a resume befitting of a conference champ
Kansas 88, West Virginia 74 - Kansas sure isn't getting a lot of resume help in this tourney

AAC quarters:
Houston 84, UConn 45 - see the 2 seed conversation elsewhere in this post
Memphis 79, UCF 55 - let's be honest; UCF gave away a fair chunk of goodwill the last couple of games, after doing great work prior.  I think there's enough for selection though
Cincinnati 82, SMU 74
Wichita St 80, Temple 74 - the plot thickens for Temple

Pac-12 semis:
Washington 66, Colorado 61
Oregon 79, Arizona St 75 (OT) - do you guys realize we're one game, and one undervaluing of St John's resume, away from the Big East and Pac-12 getting the same number of bids to the tourney?

MWC semis:
San Diego St 65, Nevada 56 - this entire time, I've been seeding Nevada with the eye test in mind.  This loss changes things a bit, and now their lack of an impact resume is a real issue for seeding
Utah St 85, Fresno St 60

MAC semis:
Buffalo 85, Central Michigan 81
Bowling Green 71, Northern Illinois 67

A-10 quarters:
Rhode Island 75, VCU 70 - are we sure VCU is safe?  I mean, tell me their signature win.  Go ahead.  I mean, they're probably safe, but still
St Bonaventure 68, George Mason 57
Davidson 70, St Joseph's 60
St Louis 64, Dayton 55 - well this tourney turned into a tire fire right quick

CUSA semis:
Old Dominion 61, UAB 59
Western Kentucky 70, Southern Miss 59

Sun Belt quarters:
Texas St 79, South Alabama 67
Georgia Southern 81, Louisiana-Monroe 67

WAC semis:
New Mexico St 79, UTRGV 72
Grand Canyon 78, Utah Valley 74

Southland semis:
New Orleans 79, Sam Houston St 76
Abilene Christian 69, SE Louisiana 66

Big Sky semis:
Montana 78, Weber St 49
Eastern Washington 77, Southern Utah 61

Big West semis:
UC Irvine 75, Long Beach St 67
Cal St Fullerton 64, UCSB 58

SWAC semis:
Prairie View A&M 81, Grambling 71
Texas Southern 80, Alabama St 66

MEAC semis:
Norfolk St 75, Howard 69
North Carolina Central 65, NC A&T 63

Thursday, March 14, 2019


I've dropped Gonzaga to the 2 line, but relax, they're moving back to the 1 line tomorrow.  Yes, it's weird, but there's logic behind it.  A healthy Zion means Duke HAS to be on the 1 line right now.  But either UNC or Duke will lose tomorrow, and Gonzaga will take their spot on the 1 line back.  For one day, though, I need to funnel Duke back to the top line.

That last spot on the 3 line is vulnerable.  Go get it, everyone on the 4 line.

Indiana and NC State losses give me the opening to slot Furman back in.  I dunno, part of this rings true to me.  2 mid-majors in the last 4 in, while 2 others get snubbed.  Feels like a committee human-based compromise to me.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke
The 2 line:  Gonzaga, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line:  Houston, Michigan, Purdue, Texas Tech
The 4 line:  Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Marquette, Auburn
The 6 line:  Buffalo, Nevada, Maryland, Villanova
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  VCU, UCF, Baylor, Seton Hall
The 9 line:  Ole Miss, Syracuse, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line:  Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line:  St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line:  Ohio St, TCU, Belmont, Furman, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line:  Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line:  Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St

Last 4 in:
Ohio St

Last 4 out:
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St

Next 4 out:

Still on the consideration board:

3/14 recap

ACC quarters:
Virginia 76, NC State 56 - I think I'm going to do everything in my power to not put NC State in this field
Florida St 65, Virginia Tech 63 (OT)
North Carolina 83, Louisville 70
Duke 84, Syracuse 72 - Duke/UNC for a spot on the 1 line

Big 12 quarters:
West Virginia 79, Texas Tech 74 - wat
Kansas St 70, TCU 61 - the bubble isn't really shrinking, so I think TCU might be home free, but I'm not feeling great about it
Kansas 65, Texas 57 - you can't put a .500 team in this tournament.  You just can't
Iowa St 83, Baylor 66

Big East quarters:
Marquette 86, St John's 54
Villanova 73, Providence 62
Xavier 63, Creighton 61 - I think that's the end of Creighton.  Xavier will be a fun revisit if they beat Nova
Seton Hall 73, Georgetown 57 - and that's it for Georgetown. Things simplified in this conference:  SHU in, SJU probably in, Xavier longshot, and that's it

B1G 2nd round:
Nebraska 69, Maryland 61 - well, that's one less team we have to worry about on the 4 and 5 lines
Ohio St 79, Indiana 75 - I think that might be one loss too many for Indiana.  And only 17 wins.  Some of these other teams with 14 losses that got in in the past had more than 17 wins.  Man, I just don't know.  I need to look at this closer
Minnesota 77, Penn St 72 (OT) - Minny is probably home free
Iowa 83, Illinois 62 - Iowa needed to avoid the disaster scenario, and they did.  Streaking towards a 8 big B1G at this point

SEC 2nd round:
Auburn 81, Missouri 71
Florida 66, Arkansas 50
Alabama 62, Ole Miss 57 - that's a significant win, and now we gotta discuss Alabama.  Especially if they get one more
Mississippi St 80, Texas A&M 54

Pac-12 quarters:
Washington 78, USC 75
Colorado 73, Oregon St 58
Arizona St 83, UCLA 72
Oregon 66, Utah 54 - hey what do you know, the Pac-12 got their 4 best teams to a semifinal.  I think you're also looking at the 2 NCAA and 2 NIT teams here, with an modest chance for both OSU and Utah to sneak in

AAC 1st round:
UConn 80, South Florida 73
Memphis 83, Tulane 68
SMU 74, Tulsa 65
Wichita St 73, East Carolina 57

MWC quarters:
Nevada 77, Boise St 69
San Diego St 63, UNLV 55
Utah St 91, New Mexico 83
Fresno St 76, Air Force 50

MAC quarters:
Buffalo 82, Akron 46
Central Michigan 89, Kent St 81
Northern Illinois 80, Toledo 76 - that's going to cost Toledo a NIT bid and the MAC their best chance at generating an at-large bid artificially (by upsetting Buffalo) they've ever had
Bowling Green 99, Ball St 86

A-10 2nd round:
Rhode Island 76, LaSalle 57
George Mason 61, George Washington 57
St Joseph's 92, Duquesne 86
St Louis 71, Richmond 68

Big Sky quarters:
Montana 79, Sacramento St 73
Weber St 81, Portland St 71
Southern Utah 83, Northern Colorado 64
Eastern Washington 90, Montana St 84

Big West quarters:
UCSB 71, Cal St Northridge 68
Cal St Fullerton 75, UC Davis 71
UC Irvine 63, UC Riverside 44
Long Beach St 68, Hawaii 66

WAC quarters:
New Mexico St 86, Chicago St 49
UTRGV 85, Cal St Bakersfield 70
Utah Valley 71, UMKC 64
Grand Canyon 84, Seattle 75

CUSA quarters:
Old Dominion 57, Louisiana Tech 56
UAB 85, UTSA 76
Western Kentucky 67, North Texas 51
Southern Miss 82, Marshall 73

Southland 2nd round:
New Orleans 76, Lamar 72
SE Louisiana 79, Central Arkansas 65

Sun Belt 2nd round:
South Alabama 70, Louisiana 69
Louisiana-Monroe 80, Coastal Carolina 50

MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 75, Delaware St 57
Howard 80, Bethune-Cookman 71


The entirety of this update:
Oklahoma from an 8 to a 9.  Ole Miss is the swap team.
And reordering the teams within last 4 out.  The more I look at it, the more real the chance is that UNCG gets 2006 Hofstra'd by Furman.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line:  Houston, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue
The 4 line:  Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line:  Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Baylor, VCU, UCF, Ole Miss
The 9 line:  Syracuse, Seton Hall, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line:  Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line:  St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line:  Ohio St, TCU, Indiana, Belmont, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Liberty, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line:  Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line:  Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St

Last 4 in:
Ohio St

Last 4 out:
North Carolina St
UNC Greensboro

Next 4 out:

3/13 recap

Patriot final:
Colgate 94, Bucknell 80

ACC 2nd round:
NC State 59, Clemson 58 - well, we can throw Clemson away at least.  Now....what do you do with the 353rd best non-con SoS in the country?  I would advise another win, NC State
Virginia Tech 71, Miami 56
Louisville 75, Notre Dame 53
Syracuse 73, Pitt 59

Big 12 1st round:
TCU 73, Oklahoma St 70 - good god what a near disaster
West Virginia 72, Oklahoma 71 - uh oh.  I think OU built up enough goodwill, though

Big East 1st round:
Providence 80, Butler 57 - PU two wins away from becoming a conversation piece
St John's 82, DePaul 74

B1G 1st round:
Nebraska 68, Rutgers 61
Illinois 74, Northwestern 69 (OT)

SEC 1st round:
Missouri 71, Georgia 61
Texas A&M 69, Vandy 52

Pac-12 1st round:
USC 78, Arizona 65
Colorado 56, Cal 51
UCLA 79, Stanford 72
Oregon 84, Washington St 51 - if nothing else, I think we identified 2 NIT locks in Oregon and Colorado

A-10 1st round:
George Washington 68, UMass 64 (OT)
Richmond 52, Fordham 50

MWC 1st round:
Boise St 66, Colorado St 57
New Mexico 78, Wyoming 68
Air Force 87, San Jose St 56

CUSA 1st round:
Louisiana Tech 57, Florida Atlantic 56
UAB 70, Middle Tennessee 61
North Texas 71, FIU 57
Marshall 82, Rice 65

Big Sky 1st round:
Sacramento St 72, Northern Arizona 60
Southern Utah 94, Idaho St 80
Montana St 75, Idaho 71

MEAC quarters:
Norfolk St 78, South Carolina St 73
NC A&T 82, Coppin St 79 (OT)

Southland 1st round:
Lamar 81, Houston Baptist 79
Central Arkansas 73, Texas A&M-CC 53

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Big West conference tournament preview

This is part 32 of a 32-part series.

UC Irvine 15-1
UC Santa Barbara 10-6
Cal St Fullerton 10-6
Hawaii 9-7
Long Beach St 8-8
UC Davis 7-9
Cal St Northridge 7-9
UC Riverside 4-12
Cal Poly 2-14

March 14-16, neutral site in Anaheim.  Bottom team is ejected.

1) UC Irvine vs. 8) UC Riverside
4) Hawaii vs. 5) Long Beach St
3) Cal St Fullerton vs. 6) UC Davis
2) UCSB vs. 7) Cal St Northridge

The stakes:
UC Irvine is sitting there with a NET of 76.  Let's investigate.  A quality road win at St Mary's, a road win at @A&M....and that's all for the top 2 quadrants.  Only two bad losses on the board though.  A poor SoS.  Feels like a borderline 13-14 seed to me.

UCSB probably has a fair chance at avoiding the 16 line, but that's about it.  No one else in the conference is really in decent position to avoid the 16 line, though.  They're buried in the low 20s in CNET.

WAC conference tournament preview

This is part 31 of a 32-part series.

New Mexico St 15-1
Utah Valley 12-4
Grand Canyon 10-6
Cal St-Bakersfield 7-9
Seattle 6-10
UMKC 6-10
Chicago St 0-16

March 14-16 in Paradise, Nevada (basically Vegas).

1) New Mexico St vs. 8) Chicago St
4) UTRGV vs. 5) Cal St-Bakersfield
3) Grand Canyon vs. 6) Seattle
2) Utah Valley vs. 7) UMKC

The stakes:
On the surface, New Mexico St has a NET of 45, and just 4 losses.  Dig deeper, and you find their only 2 Q1/2 wins are @UVU and @GC (conference road games).  Bad non-con SoS.  And they actually took a couple Q3 losses.  So no at-large bid here.  But with that NET, they should have a reasonable chance at the 13 line.  It's not impossible they fall to a 14, but I think the committee will be biased towards the name a bit.

UVU and GCU are actually sub-100 in NET.  That's kinda impressive.  UVU only really has a win at Fresno to lean on, and GCU doesn't even have any Q1/2 win, so I can't imagine either team doing better than a 15 seed.  But they might be a good litmus test for just how much NET matters on seeding these teams down here.

Ivy League conference tournament preview

This is part 30 of a 32-part series.

Harvard 10-4
Yale 10-4
Princeton 8-6
Penn 7-7
Brown 7-7
Cornell 7-7
Columbia 5-9
Dartmouth 2-12

March 16-17, Yale is the institution hosting.  Only 4 teams here, as the league clings to the last bastion of morality in this corrupt world.

1) Harvard vs. 4) Penn
2) Yale vs. 3) Princeton

The stakes:
Could be anywhere from a 13 seed to a 15 seed for the conference champ here.  Good non-con season led to a CNET ranking of 11, so they're in good position.

Harvard's got a win at St Mary's among 3 Q1/2 wins, and a overall SoS of 85.  It would just be a question of how many other teams make it around them in other conferences, on whether they'd be a 13 or 14.

Yale has the best NET (at 86, the only one inside the top 100), but the driest resume, with a N-Miami being the only Q1/2 win.  They're probably more stuck on the 14 line, with an outside chance at the 15.

Princeton beat @Arizona St but don't have much else going for it in the profile.  14 line.

Penn has the sexy wins (Nova, @Temple), but 3 Q3 AND 3 Q4 losses are harmful.  Still though, when you're talking about the 14-15 lines, it takes a lot to really damage you.  So I think they'd hold onto a 14 seed.

The real tragedy is all 4 teams took just enough damage to take them out of NIT range.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019


1) Virginia vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Seton Hall
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Marquette vs. 12) Indiana/Belmont
3) Purdue vs. 14) Northern Kentucky
6) Buffalo vs. 11) Florida
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) St John's

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota St
8) Baylor vs. 9) Arizona St
4) Florida St vs. 13) Liberty
5) Maryland vs. 12) Murray St
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Georgia St
6) Nevada vs. 11) St Mary's
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Bradley
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington

1) North Carolina vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) UCF vs. 9) Ole Miss
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Ohio St/TCU
3) Houston vs. 14) Harvard
6) Auburn vs. 11) Utah St
2) LSU vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Iowa St vs. 10) Minnesota

1) Kentucky vs. 16) Iona/Norfolk St
8) VCU vs. 9) Syracuse
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Des Moines
3) Michigan vs. 14) Vermont
6) Villanova vs. 11) Temple
2) Duke vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa


Kentucky all the way to 2nd feels aggressive, but remind yourself:  everyone plays everyone else this week, so these rankings at the top are going to sort themselves out.

Doing some seed scrubbing...adjusting Louisville and Iowa in this revision a bit.  Also Houston.  And Seton Hall. 

This bubble....I keep looking at those ACC way.  I just can't.  If it's Indiana vs. them, I can't see how you keep all of Indiana's signature wins out of the tourney when NCSU is slumming around with their non-con SoS.

I will change my mind though, don't worry.  Lots of scrubbing between now and Sunday.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line:  Houston, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue
The 4 line:  Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line:  Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Baylor, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line:  Ole Miss, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Arizona St
The 10 line:  Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line:  St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line:  Ohio St, TCU, Indiana, Belmont, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Liberty, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line:  Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line:  Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St

Last 4 in:
Ohio St

Last 4 out:
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St

Next 4 out:

NIT lines:
The 1 line:  Clemson, UNC Greensboro, North Carolina St, Furman
The 2 line:  Texas, Lipscomb, Alabama, Georgetown
The 3 line:  Creighton, Xavier, Oregon, Davidson
The 4 line:  Providence, Toledo, Colorado, Arkansas
The 5 line:  Memphis, BYU, Dayton, Butler
The 6 line:  Hofstra, East Tennessee St, Oregon St, Fresno St
The 7 line:  South Carolina, San Francisco, Utah, Loyola(Chi)
The 8 line:  South Dakota St, Wright St, Campbell, St Francis(PA)

Last 4 in (projected cutline):
East Tennessee St

Last 8 out (projected cutline):
Oregon St
Fresno St
South Carolina
San Francisco
Wichita St

3/12 recap

WCC finals:
St Mary's 60, Gonzaga 47 - well well well.  The plot thickens on the 1 line.  The dirty secret is that Gonzaga's computer profile isn't its usual stout self.  4 Q1 wins, but @San Fran and @Creighton are kinda dummy wins.  6 Q2 wins, which isn't nothing, but they get lapped by all other contenders in the quality win market.  No bad losses (or at least, N-St Mary's is comparable to other teams' worst losses in this range).  I think they stay on the 1 line.

Oh, and a bubble team falls off the back end. 

CAA finals:
Northeastern 82, Hofstra 74

NEC finals:
Fairleigh Dickinson 85, St Francis(PA) 76

Horizon finals:
Northern Kentucky 77, Wright St 66

Summit finals:
North Dakota St 73, Omaha 63

AEast semis:
Vermont 84, Binghamton 51
UMBC 90, Hartford 85 (2OT)

ACC 1st round:
Miami 79, Wake Forest 71
Notre Dame 78, Georgia Tech 71
Pitt 80, BC 70

Sun Belt 1st round:
South Alabama 75, Arkansas St 67
Louisiana-Monroe 89, Appalachian St 80

MEAC 1st round:
South Carolina St 63, UMES 54
Coppin St 81, Morgan St 71

SWAC quarters:
Prairie View A&M 86, Alcorn St 66
Grambling 59, UAPB 52
Texas Southern 80, Southern 70
Alabama St 58, Jackson St 49

AAC conference tournament preview

This is part 29 of a 32-part series.

Houston 16-2
Cincinnati 14-4
Temple 13-5
UCF 13-5
Memphis 11-7
Wichita St 10-8
Tulsa 8-10
South Florida 8-10
UConn 6-12
SMU 6-12
East Carolina 3-15
Tulane 0-18

All 12 teams from March 14-17.  Memphis hosts.  (pay attention, because that means a Q1 win is available to any of their opponents)

1) Houston vs. 8/9) South Florida/UConn
4) UCF vs. 5/12) Memphis/Tulane
3) Temple vs. 6/11) Wichita St/East Carolina
2) Cincinnati vs. 7/10) Tulsa/SMU

The stakes:
Can Houston get to the 1 line?  Their losses are UCF and @Temple, which feels just bad enough to prevent making the 1 line.  However, their home win over LSU is picking up steam.  As is Utah St.  Their non-con SoS is 118, which is good, but disappointing when they had put Oregon, @Okla St, and @BYU on there.  Plus some cupcakes are burying them too.

I sympathize with Houston's claim to a 1 seed.  But Virginia, Gonzaga, ACC tournament winner, SEC tournament winner, and Michigan St (if they win the B1G) are all sitting there too.  Is there room for Houston too?  Man, I dunno.

What about the 2 line?  Tennessee, LSU, Michigan, TTU, Purdue....there's in the middle of that mix, somewhere.  5 Q1 wins is low, but 9 Q2 wins help offset it.  I have them 11th right now....might be low.  Might need to swap them and Tech.  I have a feeling the call on the 2/3 line will be something I sweat right 'till the end, and I am okay with arguments on either side.

Cincy is right in the middle of the bracket.  One dumb, dumb Q4 loss; 4-4 vs. Q1, 10 Q1/Q2 wins.  The real hole is a lack of signature win; Ole Miss on a neutral site is probably the best, give or take UCF and @Temple.  Tough to seed them too high without one of those.

UCF has played their way in, with two sig wins (@Houston, Cincy) and no real alarming metric (sure, a Q3 loss is in there, and two Q2 losses are @Mizzou and @Wichita, which isn't great).    I can see dinging their seed a bit for those, but not their selection.  Good news is that a road loss to Memphis won't damage them too badly, so the tournament bracket sets up reallllly well for them.

I'm not too comfortable with Temple's position....two Q1 wins over Houston and UCF at home, 8 Q1/2 wins....bad non-con SoS.  Only 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss.  What do they need in this tournament?  I think a semifinal apperance, and I'm putting them in, but I won't feel good about it.  Beating Cincy would be very advisable.  But what if they lose to Wichita?  I dunno, I wouldn't feel comfortable in making a call on them either way.  Bad loss avoidance might be the different for them in making it, I think.

I think Memphis is an NIT team, but they have only 3 wins in Q1/2.  Might need another one to be sure.  Wichita St/Tulsa is an interesting debate as to who's next in line (USF's profile lags a bit behind).  However, I have a feeling it might not matter and both would miss the NIT.  Gotta look at it closer, though.

Pac-12 conference tournament preview

This is part 28 of a 32-part series.

Washington 15-3
Arizona St 12-6
Utah 11-7
Oregon St 10-8
Colorado 10-8
Oregon 10-8
UCLA 9-9
USC 8-10
Arizona 8-10
Stanford 8-10
Washington St 4-14
Cal 3-15

March 13-16, Vegas

1) Washington vs. 8/9) USC/Arizona
4) Oregon St vs. 5/12) Colorado/Cal
3) Utah vs. 6/11) Oregon/Washington St
2) Arizona St vs. 7/10) UCLA/Stanford

The stakes:


Washington hasn't beaten a tournament team all year.  Their 2 Q1 wins are @Oregon and @Colorado.  Their 6 Q2 wins are 4 conference road games, Colorado at home, and N-A&M.  In a normal bubble year, this resume isn't good enough.  However, I think human bias enters the picture.  And a conference champ of a mid-major conference gets looked at favorably.  And 8 Q1/2 wins aren't terrible.  And their non-con SoS looks good, and they're 9-6 in R/N games.  I dunno, instinct tells me they'll be overseeded, and fine.  And while there's no good wins available in this tournament....none of the losses would really hurt too badly.

Arizona St might be better off.  3 Q1 wins, including Kansas, Miss St, and Utah St.  8 Q2 wins.  And while none of the Q2 wins are sexy on their own, having a 8-2 mark against the group as a whole is definitely a positive.  What definitely hurts is 4 losses in Q3/4.  That mark is definitely a problem.  Because if quality wins are all that matter....teams like Indiana might trump ASU.  If bad loss avoidance is all that matters...everyone passes up ASU.  But can the other bubble teams handle the combination of resume features that ASU has?  That's the question.  Big pluses, big minuses, what do they add up to?

Again, a big factor is the lack of access to quality wins in this tournament.  So I would highly recommend that ASU get to the final here, to ensure safety.

Boy, I can easily see the committee making this a 1 bid league, but I think the human element takes over.  If we get a UW/ASU final, it feels like both will get in.  If one takes a dumb loss, we can revisit.

By the way, the NIT bubble here is a mess.  Quickie profiles on everyone else:
Oregon:  NET 61, beat @Wash, N-Syracuse, ASU
Colorado:  NET 69, beat Oregon, ASU
Oregon St:  NET 84, beat @Oregon, @Colorado, Oregon
Utah:  NET 99, beat @ASU, Colorado
Arizona:  NET 93, beat N-IaSt, Colorado, @OSU
UCLA, Stanford, USC probably out barring multiple upsets

I think I ordered those teams in the order I'd take them at the moment.  I certainly think the Oregon St/Colorado winner would be in, and the Utah/Oregon winner would be either in (Oregon) or on the edge (Utah).  OSU/CU loser on the bubble, Utah out with a loss, Oregon probably in either way.

I think.  What a mess.

Southland conference tournament preview

This is part 27 of a 32-part series.

Sam Houston St 16-2
Abilene Christian 14-4
Lamar 12-6
New Orleans 12-6
SE Louisiana 12-6
Texas A&M-CC 9-9
Central Arkansas 8-10
Houston Baptist 8-10
Stephen F Austin 7-11
Nicholls 7-11
Northwestern St 6-12
McNeese St 5-13
Incarnate Word 1-17

March 13-16.  Neutral site in Katy, TX.  Your quirk here:  only the top 8 qualify, and we have a ladder format as well.

1) Sam Houston St vs. 4) New Orleans vs. 5/8) Lamar/Houston Baptist
2) Abilene Christian vs. 3) SE Louisiana vs. 6/7) Texas A&M-CC/Central Arkansas

The stakes:
Pretty low.  Abilene Christian NET 155; SHSU at 174, no one else over 200.  Both top teams have 2 wins outside of Q4.  I don't see a path off the 16 line for any team.

Of course right now, I actually have SHSU barely missing Dayton.  A lot of that is the terribleness of the bottom end of D1.  Right now, I have NET rankings saving ACU or SHSU from Dayton...but that could easily be flipped or not used by the committee.

Right now Southland is CNET 29....I have reps from conferences 28, 30, 31, and 32 in Dayton.  So there's that.

CUSA conference tournament preview

This is part 26 of a 32-part series.

Old Dominion 13-5
Southern Miss 11-7
Marshall 11-7
Western Kentucky 11-7
UTSA 11-7
FIU 10-8
UAB 10-8
Louisiana Tech 9-9
North Texas 8-10
Florida Atlantic 8-10
Rice 8-10
Middle Tennessee 8-10
Charlotte 5-13
UTEP 3-15

Oh God, I have to type out this whole mess.  Ok here we go.

Remember the special format CUSA changed to?  After 14 games, the teams were divided into three groups (5, 5, and 4), and played 4 more conference games within each group.  They did this in order to try and create as many resume-enhancing games as possible.

So, when teams were grouped, they were locked in for seeding as well.  Meaning the top 5 teams (ODU, WKU, SMU, UTSA, UAB) became the top 5 seeds, no matter what any team in the second group did.  Therefore, UAB is the 5 seed despite what you see in the standings.

And in any event, it all became irrelevant because ODU ran away with the season title making the group games irrelevant.  And they lost a couple times, seeing their NET plummet and the entire conference taking a hit.

Wait, it even gets more confusing.  Only 12 teams go, so the bottom two teams in the bottom group don't go.  Neutral site host at Frisco, Texas.  But wait, there's another twist.  In the first round and quarterfinals, two games are played at the same time....with the courts separated by a curtain.

What the fuck

1) Old Dominion vs. 8/9) Louisiana Tech/Florida Atlantic
4) UTSA vs. 5/12) UAB/Middle Tennessee
3) Southern Miss vs. 6/11) Marshall/Rice
2) Western Kentucky vs. 7/10) FIU/North Texas

The stakes:
Old Dominion gave away some seed equity at the end.  On the surface, their resume looks great:  won at Syracuse and home to VCU!  Two signature wins!  And 7 losses in Q3.  Aha.  There's the catch.  Maybe, maybe, juuuust maybe they had an outside chance, but lost to UAB and Southern Miss in the last week, killing them off.

What also hurts is that they never got a game in conference play that qualified for Q2 status.  This whole system was designed to create quality games, and ODU never got one.  Southern Miss had a NET of 91...but ODU got them at home in the original schedule, and it was a home game based on the created format for the reschedule.  WKU had a NET of 119...but same thing happened to them.  Instead of getting a Q2 game on the road, ODU got stuck with a Q3 game at home.  They did play UAB (NET 139, 4 away from Q2) and UTSA (NET 140, 5 away from Q2) twice on the road.  Outch.  Even a roadie at FAU only missed by 17 spots.

So the schedule ended up being one of the all-time backfires.  Even worse, in Q3 games in total, ODU went just 9-7.  What a way to waste those Syracuse and VCU wins.  Still though, I suppose those wins will lock them in on the 13 line.

To be fair, let's look at the other 4 teams in the top group.  Each ended up with at least 4 Q2 games on the schedule.  4!  And ODU got 0.  Wow.  That is almost impossible to do.  ODU had one of the most unlucky breaks in the history of conference scheduling.

Let's briefly touch on the other teams...since they all got Q2 chances, all their resumes are more or less okay (i.e., should be able to reach the 13 line).  WKU in particular, won over Wisky, Arky, St Mary's...but lost 7 Q3 games (which probably takes them off the 12 line).  All in all, I'd say the scheduling gambit actually worked, because it should pull the conference off the 14 line.  But it was an all-time backfire for ODU specifically.

Monday, March 11, 2019


The 1 line:  Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina
The 2 line:  Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line:  Texas Tech, Michigan, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line:  Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line:  Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line:  Wofford, Iowa St, Cincinnati, Baylor
The 8 line:  Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line:  Ole Miss, Syracuse, Iowa, Washington
The 10 line:  Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line:  Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line:  TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Indiana, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Liberty, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line:  Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line:  Colgate, Wright St, Montana, Omaha
The 16 line:  Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St

Last 4 in:
North Carolina St

Last 4 out:
UNC Greensboro

Next 4 out:

3/11 recap

WCC semis:
Gonzaga 100, Pepperdine 74
St Mary's 69, San Diego 62 - still, things have broken very badly for St Mary's.  No access to a quality win vs. BYU, plus all these lower majors creeping onto the bubble, likely removes all doubt that there's no at-large in play here

SoCon final:
Wofford 70, UNC Greensboro 58 - hoo boy.  UNCG.  Furman.  Belmont.  Lipscomb.  This is gonna be a fun week

MAAC final:
Iona 81, Monmouth 60

CAA semis:
Hofstra 78, Delaware 74 (OT)
Northeastern 70, Charleston 67 - NIT play-in game?

Summit semis:
North Dakota St 76, Western Illinois 73
Omaha 61, IPFW 60

Horizon semis:
Wright St 66, Green Bay 54
Northern Kentucky 64, Oakland 63

MAC 1st round:
Central Michigan 81, Western Michigan 67
Ball St 61, Eastern Michigan 43
Akron 80, Miami(OH) 51
Northern Illinois 80, Ohio 61

MEAC 1st round:
Delaware St 71, Savannah St 67

A-10 conference tournament preview

This is part 25 of a 32-part series.

VCU 16-2
Davidson 14-4
Dayton 13-5
St Bonaventure 12-6
George Mason 11-7
St Louis 10-8
Duquesne 10-8
Rhode Island 9-9
La Salle 8-10
St Joseph's 6-12
Richmond 6-12
George Washington 4-14
UMass 4-14
Fordham 3-15

March 13-17.  Brooklyn is your neutral site host.

1) VCU vs. 8/9) Rhode Island/LaSalle
4) St Bonaventure vs. 5) George Mason vs. 12/13) George Washington/UMass
3) Dayton vs. 6) St Louis vs. 11/14) Richmond/Fordham
2) Davidson vs. 7/10) Duquesne/St Joseph's

The stakes:
What a terrible year for the A-10.  Down to 10th in CNET.  Only 3 Top 100 teams in NET.  Usually the hallmark of the A-10 is producing a bunch of decent teams, keeping the league's at-large hopes afloat by making sure quality games were numerous in conference play.  Didn't happen this year.

VCU is the one team streaking towards the lockbox.  Non-con SoS of 2 is always sexy.  6-4 vs. the top 2 quads; offsetting 2 Q3 losses.  @Texas, N-Temple, and sweeping Dayton aren't the sexiest wins, but they're probably enough in this bubble environment.  9-4 R/N record helps too.  It won't be a great seed, but I can't see this profile missing, I think.  At the very least, I think they compare favorably to Belmont, the SoCon teams, etc., in terms of overall profile.  Still, there's always the chance.  I can see a coherent argument against them relating to the lack of truly signature win, but I don't think the committee will make it.

Davidson probably isn't in play.  5 Q2 wins are their best...but VCU is the only team even near the tournament bubble among those 5.  4 Q3 losses (although they're all roadies, and they did go 7-5 on the road).  Among teams with a lack of quality wins, there's better resumes than Davidson's out there.  And winning out to the final probably won't enhance it enough.

Dayton's even worse off...their win over Butler has evaporated into nothing.  Just 3 wins inside Q1/2.  8 wins in the top 3 quads.  Just can't realistically do it.

Another sign the league is down?  No one outside the top 3 is even particularly close to the NIT bubble.