There's still an air of projection in these. Too many upsets have caused a lot of volatility at the top. I think getting granular with the analysis at this stage in the season is a mistake. So there's still some projection built in.
Don't read too much into individual teams. Once again, pay attention to conferences. Yes, teams get bids, not conferences. But conference play determines how strong each individual team's resume is.
B1G is in good shape to produce top teams, and I like their odds of getting more than 6 in.
ACC is weaker than normal, but should be fine.
Big East and Big 12 are fine.
Pac-12 should finally be a little stronger than years past. They're still 6th among power conferences in my book, but a lot closer to the top 5.
SEC might be the one in trouble. 3 bid season is in play if things break badly.
WCC is in real good position. BYU has a real chance to make it 3 bids out of there.
I'm having a real tough time seeing an at-large bid from anyone outside the top 10 conferences. UNI has a fighting chance, but that's about it.
The 1 line: Gonzaga, Duke, Ohio St, Kansas
The 2 line: Auburn, Butler, Louisville, Oregon
The 3 line: San Diego St, Baylor, West Virginia, Maryland
The 4 line: Villanova, Michigan St, Dayton, Memphis
The 5 line: Michigan, Wichita St, Virginia, Arizona
The 6 line: Florida St, Colorado, Kentucky, Creighton
The 7 line: Penn St, Iowa, Stanford, Marquette
The 8 line: Xavier, North Carolina, Washington, Arkansas
The 9 line: St Mary's, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, VCU
The 10 line: Utah St, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Houston
The 11 line: Virginia Tech, Northern Iowa, North Carolina St, Florida, St Louis
The 12 line: BYU, Seton Hall, Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Yale,
The 13 line: Vermont, Belmont, Akron, Louisiana Tech
The 14 line: Stephen F Austin, New Mexico St, Delaware, Rider
The 15 line: Wright St, Hawaii, Arkansas St, Eastern Washington
The 16 line: North Dakota St, Colgate, Campbell, St Francis(PA), Texas Southern, Morgan St
Next 4 in:
North Carolina St
Last 4 in:
Last 4 out:
Next 4 out:
Break it down!:
Big 12 6
Big East 6