Saturday, February 29, 2020

2/29 recap

@VCU 75, George Washington 51
@Richmond 95, UMass 71

@Clemson 70, Florida St 69 - a dumb loss for a team going for the 2 line.  Are any of the ACC teams going to be on the 2 line?  I'm not sure anymore
@Virginia 52, Duke 50 - yea, none of 'em are going to be on the 2 line
@North Carolina St 77, Pittsburgh 73
North Carolina 92, @Syracuse 79 - yeah, never mind my Syracuse speculation earlier
@Wake Forest 84, Notre Dame 73 - yeah, never mind my Notre Dame speculation earlier
@Georgia Tech 63, Miami 57

@Lipscomb 77, Liberty 71 - I can't take a team with 3 A-Fun losses seriously, sorry

UConn 84, @East Carolina 63
@Tulsa 65, UCF 54
Memphis 74, @Tulane 67 (OT)

Kansas 62, @Kansas St 58
@TCU 75, Baylor 72 - wait what
Oklahoma 73, @West Virginia 62 - I have no idea what to do with WVU anymore.  So much about their computer profile screams good seed, but these are a series of troubling results.  The analysis is easier on Oklahoma, this buys them some wiggle room
Texas 68, @Texas Tech 58 - ok, now we're really, really taking Texas seriously.  They're not there yet, but they're in the picture finally
@Oklahoma St 73, Iowa St 61

Providence 58, @Villanova 54 - go away, Providence.  I really don't want your trash non-con resume anywhere near the bubble
Seton Hall 88, @Marquette 79
@Butler 60, DePaul 42

Michigan St 78, @Maryland 66 - 1 seeds win this game, Maryland.  Probably the death knell on that front
@Iowa 77, Penn St 68

Northern Iowa 70, @Drake 43

San Diego St 83, @Nevada 76
@New Mexico 66, Utah St 64 - after keeping their nose clean for so long, finally dropped a roadie.  Not a great spot to drop one, based on the numbers

@California 86, Utah 79 (OT)
@USC 71, Arizona St 61 - ASU might be out as quick as they were in
@UCLA 69, Arizona 64 - ok now this UCLA thing might really be getting interesting

@Kentucky 73, Auburn 66 - UK's in play for the 1 a universe where they didn't lose to Evansville
@LSU 64, Texas A&M 50
@Ole Miss 86, Vanderbilt 60
@Tennessee 63, Florida 58 - the type of game bubble teams lose
Mississippi St 67, @Missouri 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Georgia 99, Arkansas 89 - and this is why
@Alabama 90, South Carolina 86 - loser leaves bubble town game

@East Tennessee St 68, Western Carolina 67
@Chattanooga 74, UNC Greensboro 72 - ouch
@Furman 82, Citadel 58 - well if the NIT only takes one team here, gotta be Furman

@Gonzaga 86, St Mary's 76
BYU 81, @Pepperdine 64

Friday, February 28, 2020

2/28 recap

@Dayton 82, Davidson 67

That's all there is on this day.  I'm hoping to squeeze in one last bubble watch before conference tourney previews start over the weekend.

2/27 recap

@Gonzaga 94, San Diego 59
St Mary's 78, @Santa Clara 72 - St Mary's should be home free for an at-large bid.  Even if they absorb a dumb conference tourney loss, they've done enough IMO.  Reminder that Gonzaga is their only regular season game left

@Oregon 69, Oregon St 54
@California 76, Colorado 62 - what a dumb loss.  Can we just leave the 4 line vacant?  No one deserves to be there
@USC 57, Arizona 48 - important service hold for USC
@UCLA 75, Arizona St 72 - I really don't wanna take UCLA seriously, but I don't really have a choice now

Wisconsin 81, @Michigan 74 - that's a signature road win.  It's going to be weird seeing a 12 loss team on the 5 line, right?
Ohio St 75, @Nebraska 54
@Purdue 57, Indiana 49 - not a good look for IU, and not nearly enough for PU.  This just moves both teams closer to the bubble
Illinois 74. @Northwestern 66 - road wins are never trivial

@Wichita St 72, Temple 69 - that's cutting it close.  This team is not safe, folks

Liberty 76, @Kennesaw St 52 - I haven't been paying attention here, but Liberty's run the record to 27-3.  I can't imagine this profile getting an at-large, but something will have gone horribly wrong if they need it

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

2/26 recap

Maryland 74, @Minnesota 73 - oof.  I can't imagine Minny being a serious bubble contender at this point; this was last chance saloon stuff here
@Penn St 65, Rutgers 64 - it's going to be peak Rutgers when they miss the tournament outright

@Villanova 71, St John's 60
@Marquette 93, Georgetown 72

@South Carolina 94, Georgia 90 (OT)
@Arkansas 86, Tennessee 69
@Florida 81, LSU 66

Virginia 56, @Virginia Tech 53 - I think Virginia's gonna be home free.  There's enough on this resume to get there
Syracuse 72, @Pittsburgh 49 - road wins are never trivial.  It's a longshot, but I don't trust the committee to evaluate the ACC correctly
Notre Dame 62, @Boston College 61 - in fact, here's a better longshot candidate.  UND has a game in hand with FSU still to go.  This could be the shocker

Rhode Island 76, @Fordham 75 - near disaster
Richmond 73, @George Washington 70 - feeling a little better about a 3-bid A-10 now
@UMass 60, VCU 52 - but those 3 bids won't include VCU.  Good God what has happened to them
@St Louis 76, St Joe's 63

East Tennessee St 60, @Wofford 54
Furman 81, @UNC Greensboro 67 - this might have NIT bubble implications.  They both deserve to go, IMO

@Northern Iowa 84, Evansville 64

@Stanford 70, Utah 62

2/25 recap

@Baylor 85, Kansas St 66
@Oklahoma 65, Texas Tech 51 - a desperately needed home hold for OU.  Just don't treat this win as a signature win, they need more

@Wake Forest 113, Duke 101 (2OT) - Duke has some really, really dumb losses for a projected 2 seed.  Sorry, projected 3 seed.  Tough to see them holding on against the charging Big East teams
@North Carolina 85, NC State 79 - road wins are always tough asks, but NCSU is in a position where they couldn't afford this one

Kentucky 69, @Texas A&M 60
@Auburn 67, Ole Miss 58
@Mississippi St 80, Alabama 73 - MSU gets to stay on the bubble; Alabama go away

@Michigan St 78, Iowa 70

@Xavier 78, DePaul 67

@SMU 58, Memphis 53 - Memphis returns to its near-death state.  AAC is doing a marvelous job of getting the minimum out of this season.  Pretty strong conference overall, but everyone has taken 1 or 2 too many losses to be legit at-large players.  They desperately needed more separation at the top of the conference.  I don't see how they get to 3 bids now, there aren't enough signature wins to go around

Dayton 62, @George Mason 55

@San Diego St 66, Colorado St 60
@Utah St 94, San Diego St 56 - they haven't lost a dumb game in awhile

2/24 recap

@Kansas 83, Oklahoma St 58
@Florida St 82, Louisville 67 - FSU, not Duke or UL, now might have the best resume in the ACC.  What a time to be alive
@Texas 67, West Virginia 57 - WVU now bleeding multiple seed lines.  Texas?  Not completely dead yet
@Illinois 71, Nebraska 59

Sunday, February 23, 2020


In today's edition of Fuck You, BYU:
- BYU is on the 7 line.  Each 7 seed feeds into at least one Friday/Sunday location.
- Move BYU down a line?  Nope.  Each 8 seed either feeds into a Friday/Sunday location, or directly in front of Gonzaga.
- Move BYU up a line?  There's a spot in St Louis on the 6 line available.
- Great!  Except for Butler.  See, there's 3 Big East teams on the 3 line, and now since BYU took St Louis, there's nowhere for Butler to go.  Therefore, despite being the highest 6 seed, Butler gets sent careening down a seed line.  Not great.  I could actually see the committee moving them to the 5 line in this scenario, sending Iowa to the 6 line and Wisky to the 7 line.

Elsewhere, I'm not a fan of what I did with the 4 line (neither Oregon nor Colorado get the west region, geography in general is wonky), but the brackets needed to be balanced.  Again, this is something to watch with SDSU.  The committee's job gets so much easier if they just make SDSU #5 overall and park them in Gonzaga's west region.

1) Kansas vs. 16) St Peter's/Prairie View A&M
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Florida
4) Colorado vs. 13) Stephen F Austin
5) Michigan St vs. 12) Liberty
@St Louis
3) Louisville vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) BYU vs. 11) Oklahoma/Xavier
2) Maryland vs. 15) Colgate
7) Marquette vs. 10) Utah St

1) San Diego St vs. 16) Austin Peay
8) Texas Tech vs. 9) Virginia
4) Penn St vs. 13) Vermont
5) Auburn vs. 12) Cincinnati
3) Seton Hall vs. 14) South Dakota St
6) Michigan vs. 11) North Carolina St
2) Duke vs. 15) Arkansas-Little Rock
7) Ohio St vs. 10) East Tennessee St

1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Radford
8) Illinois vs. 9) Rhode Island
4) Kentucky vs. 13) Akron
5) West Virginia vs. 12) Northern Iowa
3) Creighton vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) USC/Wichita St
2) Dayton vs. 15) Wright St
7) Butler vs. 10) Arizona St

@St Louis
1) Baylor vs. 16) St Francis(PA)/North Carolina A&T
8) LSU vs. 9) Rutgers
4) Oregon vs. 13) North Texas
5) Iowa vs. 12) Yale
3) Villanova vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Arizona vs. 11) Richmond
2) Florida St vs. 15) Montana
7) Houston vs. 10) Indiana


- pressure point #1 - the 4 line.  It feels like a massive void after Oregon where I want to make about 8 teams a 5 seed.  I don't exactly love PSU and Colorado in those spots, but I like the other teams less.
- pressure point #2 - the 9 line.  Starting here, the bubble teams all feel the same to me.  You could argue almost any order for the next 16 teams and I wouldn't mind it.
- SDSU stays on the 1 line.  Everyone gets one freebie.  I don't like their chances of holding onto it - it feel inevitable if the ACC champ double-dips, they'll get there.  Plus Maryland is still in play.
- Cincy leads the AAC.  Arizona St leads the Pac-12 (although I think I'd have moved them in either way)
- I don't like the decisions I made on the 10 and 11 lines already.  Please sort yourselves out.  Please.

The 1 line:  Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line:  Duke, Maryland, Dayton, Florida St
The 3 line:  Seton Hall, Louisville, Villanova, Creighton
The 4 line:  Kentucky, Oregon, Penn St, Colorado
The 5 line:  Auburn, West Virginia, Michigan St, Iowa
The 6 line:  Butler, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin
The 7 line:  BYU, Houston, Ohio St, Marquette
The 8 line:  Texas Tech, LSU, Illinois, St Mary's
The 9 line:  Rutgers, Florida, Virginia, Rhode Island
The 10 line:  East Tennessee St, Indiana, Arizona St, Utah St
The 11 line:  North Carolina St, Richmond, USC, Oklahoma, Xavier, Wichita St
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Liberty, Yale
The 13 line:  Akron, Stephen F Austin, Vermont, North Texas
The 14 line:  Hofstra, New Mexico St, UC Irvine, South Dakota St
The 15 line:  Colgate, Wright St, Montana, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line:  Radford, Austin Peay, St Francis(PA), St Peter's, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

Next 4 in:
*Arizona St
Utah St
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Wichita St

Last 4 out:
*Northern Iowa

Next 4 out:

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 6
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
A-10 3

2/23 recap

@Ohio St 79, Maryland 72 - I was ready to move Maryland to the 1 line....San Diego St is safe for now
@Indiana 68, Penn St 60 - IU seems to be insistent on doing juuuust enough to stay above the bubble
@Wisconsin 79, Rutgers 71
Minnesota 83, @Northwestern 57

@Creighton 81, Butler 59 - at some point, we're going to need to talk about Creighton (and Seton Hall) on the 1 line
@Seton Hall 81, St John's 65

Stanford 75, @Washington St 57
@Utah 79, USC 65 - USC out, Arizona St in?  What in Bill Walton's name is going on in this conference right now

@Cincinnati 67, Wichita St 64 - now WSU might be off the bubble, and this isn't enough for Cincy.  Worst case scenario for the AAC

@Notre Dame 87, Miami 71 - I can probably stop paying attention to UND, but I have this weird feeling the committee is going to do something really stupid with the ACC on the bubble

@Northern Iowa 64, Southern Illinois 52

2/22 recap

@Dayton 80, Duquesne 70
@Davidson 77, Rhode Island 75 (OT) - not the worst loss in the world to absorb, but it is one nonetheless.  They spent some wiggle room on this one
@St Bonaventure 75, Richmond 71 - same comment here, except Richmond didn't exactly have wiggle room to begin with

@Duke 88, Virginia Tech 64
Florida St 67, @NC State 61 - no harm to NCSU, they got the split this week they needed
@Louisville 72, UNC 55
Virginia 59, @Pitt 56 - still a ways to go, but starting to feel like UVa has freed itself from the bubble
@Syracuse 79, Georgia Tech 72
Clemson 82, @BC 64

@Memphis 60, Houston 59 - at the death, Memphis picks up a signature win that keeps them bubble relevant for now
@Tulsa 79, SMU 57

Kansas 64, @Baylor 61 - don't overthink things; they're both on the 1 line for eternity
@TCU 67, West Virginia 60 (OT) - WVU is starting to spend multiple seed lines now, careening down the board
Texas 70, @Kansas St 59
@Oklahoma St 83, Oklahoma 66 - the Big 12 bubble is weird after TTU.  Starting to think the distance between UT/OU/OSU is smaller than we thought
Texas Tech 87, @Iowa St 57

Villanova 64, @Xavier 55
@Providence 84, Marquette 72 - I have no idea what to do with Providence, but we can't ignore them anymore
@DePaul 74, Georgetown 68 - might be fatal

Michigan 71, @Purdue 63 - mini-rant:  why does the B1G have exactly 1 game scheduled for this Saturday?  They're getting too cute with their conference schedule

UNLV 66, @San Diego St 63 - what a dumb loss.  At home to UNLV?  I'm not sure whether to take them off the 1 line after just one loss though.  Remember my rule of thumb:  everybody gets one

Oregon 73, @Arizona 72 (OT)
UCLA 70, @Colorado 63 - UCLA isn't in the bubble conversation yet, but we're monitoring the situation
@Arizona St 74, Oregon St 73

@Kentucky 65, Florida 59
@Auburn 73, Tennessee 66
@Arkansas 78, Missouri 68
@Texas A&M 87, Mississippi St 75
LSU 86, @South Carolina 80 - road wins are never trivial
Alabama 103, @Ole Miss 78

@Furman 67, Wofford 66
UNC Greensboro 71, @VMI 68
East Tennessee St 80, @Samford 74

@BYU 91, Gonzaga 78 - Gonzaga's paper resume isn't as strong as you think.  But, this loss isn't all that bad either.  I think they win the head-to-head for SDSU for the 1 seed out west, but that's about it
@St Mary's 92, San Diego 63

Friday, February 21, 2020

2/21 recap

@St Louis 80, VCU 62 - in the only bubble game of the day, VCU is super-dead

2/20 recap

@Gonzaga 71, San Francisco 54
@BYU 85, Santa Clara 75
@St Mary's 57, Loyola Marymount 51

@Arizona St 77, Oregon 72 - ok, NOW I'm getting serious about this Arizona St thing
@Colorado 70, USC 66
@Arizona 89, Oregon St 63
Stanford 72, @Washington 64
UCLA 69, @Utah 58

@Iowa 85, Ohio St 76
Michigan St 86, Nebraska 65

@Wichita St 65, South Florida 55

@Indiana St 67, Northern Iowa 64 - ah crap

2/19 recap

@NC State 88, Duke 66 - pretty obvious takeaways here - NCSU is in play again, and Duke might....actually, no, probably won't lose a seed line over this.  Staying on the 2 line for now
@Louisville 90, Syracuse 66
@Virginia 78, Boston College 65
Miami 102, @Virginia Tech 95 (3OT)

Villanova 91, @DePaul 71
@Seton Hall 74, Butler 72
Providence 73, @Georgetown 63 - I can't imagine Georgetown doing enough to make it through the bubble, if they drop games like this

@Georgia 65, Auburn 55 - this is why Auburn isn't higher.  Can't trust them
Texas A&M 74, @Alabama 68 - and to think there's people taking Alabama's at-large resume seriously
@Mississippi St 79, South Carolina 76 - a battle of marginal at-large resumes.

Michigan 60, @Rutgers 52 - it's going to be glorious when Rutgers misses the tournament outright
Indiana 68, @Minnesota 56 - road wins are never trivial

@Texas 70, TCU 56
@Texas Tech 69, Kansas St 62

@Houston 76, Tulsa 43
UCF 89, @Cincinnati 87 (2OT) - vindication on Cincy!  This is not an at-large team right now
@Memphis 77, East Carolina 73
@Tulane 80, SMU 72

@Richmond 65, George Mason 50

@East Tennessee St 75, Furman 66 - ok, this ETSU at-large thing is serious now
@UNC Greensboro 83, Wofford 79 (OT)

@Utah St 78, Wyoming 58

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

2/18 recap

Baylor 65, @Oklahoma 54 - Baylor building up a buffer where it's going to take something pretty stupid to fall off the 1 line at this point
@West Virginia 65, Oklahoma St 47

Dayton 66, @VCU 61 - and VCU is just about done and dusted for the year.  Absorbed too many losses
@UMass 67, St Louis 63 - that's probably midnight for StL's hopes

@Maryland 76, Northwestern 67
Illinois 62, @Penn St 56 - the second I promote PSU to the 3 line, this crap happens.  I have no idea what to do with the 3 and 4 lines now.  Good road win here, and this should put a floor on Illinois' seed in the single digits
@Wisconsin 69, Purdue 65 - Purdue is going to have a raw number of losses problem.  13 already.

@Florida St 82, Pittsburgh 67

Kentucky 79, @LSU 76 - LSU has given away a few seed lines as of late.  Not home free yet
@Tennessee 65, Vanderbilt 61
@Florida 73, Arkansas 59

Creighton 73, @Marquette 65 - another signature road win, and now the 3 line seems about right for them

Monday, February 17, 2020


- I'm not sure I'm happy with my 3 line and 4 line, but it's the only order of teams that doesn't make me throw up at the moment.  I just can't put any of those teams on the 4 line up a line right now.
- Cincinnati now leads the AAC by our rules, so there you go.
- Illinois and Rutgers feel low, but I can't put that many B1G teams that high up.  I think the committee will self-correct and send a couple B1G teams down the bracket.
- These are going to be historically weak teams on the 13 and 14 lines this year.  No way around that.

The 1 line:  Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line:  Duke, Maryland, Dayton, Florida St
The 3 line:  Seton Hall, Villanova, Penn St, Kentucky
The 4 line:  Auburn, Louisville, Creighton, West Virginia
The 5 line:  Colorado, Oregon, Michigan St, Butler
The 6 line:  Iowa, Marquette, Arizona, Ohio St
The 7 line:  LSU, Houston, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 8 line:  BYU, Texas Tech, Rhode Island, Illinois
The 9 line:  Rutgers, St Mary's, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa
The 10 line:  USC, Florida, Indiana, Virginia
The 11 line:  Xavier, Purdue, Wichita St, East Tennessee St, Richmond, Utah St
The 12 line:  Cincinnati, Furman, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line:  North Texas, New Mexico St, Stephen F Austin, Colgate
The 14 line:  South Dakota St, Hofstra, Wright St, UC Irvine
The 15 line:  Montana, Bowling Green, Little Rock, Winthrop
The 16 line:  Austin Peay, North Florida, St Peter's, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
East Tennessee St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Arizona St

Next 4 out:
Mississippi St

Break it down!:
B1G 11
Big East 6
Big 12 5
Pac-12 4
A-10 3
SoCon 2

2/17 recap

@Kansas 91, Iowa St 71
Xavier 77, @St John's 74
@Notre Dame 77, UNC 76

Sunday, February 16, 2020

2/16 recap

San Diego St 72, @Boise St 55

Villanova 76, @Temple 56

@Oregon 80, Utah 62
Arizona St 80, @California 75 - road wins are never trivial

Iowa 58, @Minnesota 55 - I just don't know how Minnesota makes it from the position they're in right now
@Michigan 89, Indiana 65

Cincinnati 70, @East Carolina 67 (OT)
@Wichita St 82, Tulane 57
@UConn 64, Memphis 61

@Boston College 71, NC State 68 - splitting road games over non-tourney teams probably isn't enough for NCSU right now

2/15 recap

Dayton 71, @UMass 63
@Rhode Island 73, St Joseph's 55
@Richmond 77, VCU 59 - just a catastrophic stretch for VCU, and it's tough to see a road back for them.  Richmond will be your 3rd A-10 team in play the rest of the way
@St Louis 84, LaSalle 69

@Clemson 77, Louisville 62 - what in the world is happening to UL?  These are precious, precious seed lines that UL are spending, with limited opportunities to add quality wins to recover
@Duke 94, Notre Dame 60
@Florida St 80, Syracuse 77
@Virginia Tech 67, Pittsburgh 57
Virginia 64, @North Carolina 62 - UVa seems to be doing enough to at least be team #4 out of here

@Liberty 62, NJIT 49

@SMU 73, Houston 72  (OT) - SMU:  not dead yet
Tulsa 56, @South Florida 48

@Baylor 70, West Virginia 59
@Kansas 87, Oklahoma 70
@Oklahoma St 73, Texas Tech 70 - ew
@Iowa St 81, Texas 52
@TCU 68, Kansas St 57

@Providence 74, Seton Hall 71 - Providence has way too many big game scalps for a team going nowhere.  What gives with them?
Georgetown 73, @Butler 66 - well now.  A signature road win for a team desperately needing one
@Creighton 93, DePaul 64

Maryland 67, @Michigan St 60
@Penn St 77, Northwestern 61
@Rutgers 72, Illinois 57
@Ohio St 68, Purdue 52
Wisconsin 81, @Nebraska 64

@Penn 69, Yale 61

@Loyola(Chi) 82, Northern Iowa 73 (OT) - not a bad loss, so not a dagger for UNI.  Just removes some margin of error

Utah St 71, @Fresno St 59

Colorado 69, @Oregon St 47
@USC 70, Washington St 51
@UCLA 67, Washington 57
Arizona 69, @Stanford 60

@Missouri 85, Auburn 73 - I have no idea what to do with Auburn anymore
@Kentucky 67, Ole Miss 62
@Alabama 88, LSU 82 - on the brink of death, this at-large profile is alive again
Mississippi St 78, @Arkansas 77 - Arky is turning into a disaster
@South Carolina 63, Tennessee 61
@Florida 84, Vanderbilt 66

East Tennessee St 72, @VMI 67
@Furman 58, Chattanooga 53
UNC Greensboro 67, @Mercer 55

Gonzaga 89, @Pepperdine 77
@St Mary's 71, Pacific 63
BYU 72, @San Diego 71

2/14 recap

Yale 88, @Princeton 64 - for the Ivy lead, and for this night, the only bubble game on the board

2/13 recap

@Oregon 68, Colorado 60
@USC 62, Washington 56
@Oregon St 70, Utah 51
Arizona 68, @Cal 52
Arizona St 74, @Stanford 69 - is ASU going to be a thing on the bubble down the stretch?
@UCLA 86, Washington St 83 (OT)

@Indiana 89, Iowa 77

Wichita St 75, @UCF 58
@Cincinnati 92, Memphis 86 (OT) - Memphis might be already too far gone

BYU 77, @Loyola Marymount 54

2/12 recap

@Ohio St 72, Rutgers 66
Michigan 79, @Northwestern 54

Kansas 58, @West Virginia 49 - be prepared when Kansas inevitably ascends to #1 on the seed list
@Oklahoma 90, Iowa St 61

@Georgia Tech 64, Louisville 58 - that's a terrible loss, one worth a full seed line
@Miami 85, Boston College 58
Clemson 72, @Pittsburgh 52

Creighton 87, @Seton Hall 82 - signature road win, and now I think the 3 line is in play for CU
@Villanova 72, Marquette 71
@Butler 66, Xavier 61
@St John's 80, Providence 69

@Auburn 95, Alabama 91 (OT) - style points are keeping Auburn's seed down for now
South Carolina 75, @Georgia 59
Florida 78, @Texas A&M 61

Houston 62, @South Florida 58
@SMU 79, UConn 75
@Tulsa 70, East Carolina 56

George Mason 72, @VCU 67 - that's the type of loss that costs you an at-large bid
Richmond 74, @LaSalle 47

@East Tennessee St 91, Citadel 67
@UNC Greensboro 82, Western Carolina 62
Furman 86, @Samford 71

@Northern Iowa 71, Illinois St 63

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

2/11 recap

@Maryland 72, Nebraska 70 - good lord what a near-disaster
Penn St 88, @Purdue 76 - because of the raw number of losses, Purdue can't afford to drop home games like this
Michigan St 70, @Illinois 69 - desperately needed road win.  Starting to see PSU/UM/MSU separate?

Kentucky 78, @Vanderbilt 64
@LSU 82, Missouri 78
@Ole Miss 83, Mississippi St 58 - that's a really, really bad look for a bubble team
@Tennessee 82, Arkansas 61 - ditto.  Feeling a lot worse about the SEC bubble these days

North Carolina St 79, @Syracuse 74 - a very, very important road win.
@Wake Forest 74, North Carolina 57
@Virginia 50, Notre Dame 49 (OT) - near disaster for UVa, but a win is a win.  UND still had faint at-large hopes, but is probably done now

Oklahoma St 64, @Kansas St 59

@San Diego St 82, New Mexico 59
Utah St 75, @Colorado St 72

@Dayton 81, Rhode Island 67 - no worries for URI; this was a house money game

2/10 recap

Baylor 52, @Texas 45
@Texas Tech 88, TCU 42 - yeah, we're headed for a drama-free 5 bids in the Big 12

@Duke 70, Florida St 65 - if Duke runs the table, do they jump SDSU?

Sunday, February 9, 2020


The west got a little imbalanced and I couldn't find a clean solution.

BYU gets bumped a full seed line up because they're jerks that don't play on Sunday.  They literally can't fit on any of the 8 lines or 9 lines.  That's a problem.

@St Louis
1) Baylor vs. 16) North Florida/Prairie View A&M
8) Michigan vs. 9) St Mary's
4) Villanova vs. 13) Vermont
5) Iowa vs. 12) Virginia/East Tennessee St
3) Auburn vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Creighton vs. 11) Wichita St
@St Louis
2) Louisville vs. 15) UALR
7) Illinois vs. 10) Oklahoma

1) San Diego St vs. 16) Rider
8) Texas Tech vs. 9) USC
4) Kentucky vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Colorado vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
3) Maryland vs. 14) Murray St
6) Marquette vs. 11) Florida
2) Duke vs. 15) Winthrop
7) Houston vs. 10) Indiana

1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Montana
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Rhode Island
4) Oregon vs. 13) Hofstra
5) Penn St vs. 12) Furman
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Colgate
6) Arizona vs. 11) VCU/Xavier
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) Wright St
7) BYU vs. 10) Stanford

1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/North Carolina A&T
8) Rutgers vs. 9) Northern Iowa
4) Butler vs. 13) North Texas
5) Michigan St vs. 12) Yale
3) Florida St vs. 14) South Dakota St
6) LSU vs. 11) Purdue
2) Dayton vs. 15) Bowling Green
7) Ohio St vs. 10) Arkansas


The 1 line:  Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line:  Duke, Dayton, Louisville, Seton Hall
The 3 line:  Maryland, West Virginia, Florida St, Auburn
The 4 line:  Villanova, Butler, Kentucky, Oregon
The 5 line:  Michigan St, Iowa, Penn St, Colorado
The 6 line:  LSU, Creighton, Arizona, Marquette
The 7 line:  Illinois, Ohio St, Houston, Wisconsin
The 8 line:  Texas Tech, Michigan, Rutgers, BYU
The 9 line:  USC, Northern Iowa, St Mary's, Rhode Island
The 10 line:  Oklahoma, Indiana, Arkansas, Stanford
The 11 line:  Purdue, Florida, Wichita St, VCU, Xavier
The 12 line:  Virginia, East Tennessee St, Yale, Furman, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line:  Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico St, Hofstra
The 14 line:  Colgate, UC Irvine, Murray St, South Dakota St
The 15 line:  Bowling Green, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, Winthrop
The 16 line:  Montana, Rider, North Florida, Robert Morris, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Wichita St

Last 4 in:
East Tennessee St

Last 4 out:
Mississippi St
Utah St
Arizona St

Next 4 out:
North Carolina St

Bubble inception (we have to go deeper):

I do this list every early February.  Without fail, someone from this group always goes on a massive run to make it through the bubble into the tournament.  Here's this year's list:
Notre Dame
Virginia Tech
St John's
South Carolina
UNC Greensboro

Break it down!:
B1G 11
Big East 6
Pac-12 5
Big 12 5
A-10 3
SoCon 2

2/9 recap

@Marquette 76, Butler 57

@Houston 76, Wichita St 43 - ok, Wichita's in trouble now
@UConn 72, Cincinnati 71 (OT) - uh oh Cincy
@UCF 83, Tulsa 75 - just in case people thought Tulsa was a thing

Notre Dame 61, @Clemson 57

@Wisconsin 70, Ohio St 57
@Rutgers 77, Northwestern 73 (OT) - near disaster

@Washington St 79, Washington 67

Bubble watch: others

Northern Iowa (19-3) (10-2) NET 36 SoS 96
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 71, avg win 155
1-1 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Colorado, N-South Carolina, and a bunch of Valley wins
Bad losses:  @SIU, @Illinois St

The road losses are fine, given they're 7-2 in true road games.  They went 2-1 in their 3 power conference game chances (WVU, Colorado, S Carolina), which is huge.  The lack of Q2 games is deceiving - they've got a few more coming in conference play yet.  SIU is 2nd in conference, but their non-con was so bad that they're a Q3 team right now, kind of hurting UNI's resume by accident.

East Tennessee St (18-4) (10-2) NET 44 SoS 94
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 58, avg win 194
2-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @LSU, swept UNCG
Bad losses:  Mercer, ugh

That Q4 loss is terrible, but losing at North Dakota St might hurt worse, just because it keeps them from a more shiny record against Q1/2 teams.  The win at LSU is a profile maker right now, and the non-con SoS was well crafted (with 3 non D-1 teams, though).  This profile has a fighting chance.

Quick hits:

Liberty (21-3) (9-2) NET 59 SoS 311 - the SoS number says it all.  No Q1 wins; 1 Q2 win (Akron).  Nah
Yale (15-5) (5-1) NET 58 SoS 225 - No Q1 wins, just @Clemson in the Q2 ledger.  Harvard is somehow a Q3 loss.  I don't see a viable path forward for them.
Furman (17-5) (10-2) NET 74 SoS 170 - they lack the impact wins they'd need to be in play.
UNC Greensboro (17-6) (9-3) NET 64 SoS 154 - they kinda don't, as they have @Georgetown on the resume to play with.  Plus, beat Furman on the road.  Alas, swept by ETSU, so it'll be near impossible to get the extra quality wins they need to be in play.
Stephen F Austin (18-3) (12-1) NET 85 SoS 336 - oof, that SoS.  What really hurts?  The non-con SoS was 131.  The Southland is that bad.  To me, the losses at Rutgers and Alabama are forgivable since they binked the Duke win.  But there's one ugly Q4 loss.  If that remains the only one all the way to Selection Sunday?  Let's revisit them then.

Bubble watch: B1G


Maryland (19-4) (9-3) NET 8 SoS 9
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 56, avg win 106
7-4 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Marquette, @Illinois, Ohio St, et al
Bad losses:  all are Q1-A

Under .500 on the road, no true signature signature win, just means they won't be on the 1 line.  2 line in play, but not the easiest road to get there.

Michigan St (16-8) (8-5) NET 13 SoS 55
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 74, avg win 124
3-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SHU, @Minny, Rutgers
Bad losses:  N-Va Tech?

See Maryland comment, only their resume is a half-step behind Maryland's.


Penn St (18-5) (8-4) NET 19 SoS 119
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 332, avg win 127
6-3 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, @MSU, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-Ole Miss, probably

I refuse to lock in a team with that non-con SoS.  It's going to cost them a seed line and maybe more.  Period.

Illinois (15-7) (8-4) NET 33 SoS 61
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 246, avg win 138
5-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Purdue, @Michigan, @Wisky
Bad losses:  Miami

Another team with legit SoS problems.  Only played 2 non-con games in the top 2 quads, and lost both.  That will severely limit upside, although road wins are one good way to masking that problem.

Iowa (17-7) (8-5) NET 28 SoS 86
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 195, avg win 121
6-5 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-TTU, Maryland, Rutgers
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, DePaul?

The non-con SoS, at least it's a little better than above.  But they have 3 Q1 wins in the non-con (Cincy/Syracuse/ISU) that make the difference.  This team has the most potential to skyrocket in seed.

Rutgers (16-7) (8-5) NET 29 SoS 45
Vital signs:  1-7 R/N, non-con SoS 47, avg win 138
3-5 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  SHU, Penn St, Purdue
Bad losses:  N-St Bonaventure

Um, 1 true road win, and does Nebraska really count?  They need to fix this at some point.  None of the chances are easy, but they'll be in some peril without at least 1.

Purdue (14-10) (7-6) NET 26 SoS 49
Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 46, avg win 126
4-7 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, Iowa, N-VCU
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, Texas?

The first test case where we see the balance between a power conference and the number of losses its median members absorb.  10 losses is a lot already, but 7 of them are in Q1-A.  1-7 within that subcategory.  Obviously, more chances abound so this problem will go away, one way or the other.

Wisconsin (14-10) (7-6) NET 37 SoS 2
Vital signs:  3-9 R/N, non-con SoS 15, avg win 113
7-7 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, MSU, @Penn St, etc
Bad losses:  N-New Mexico

7 Q1 wins and that SoS is tough to ignore, even with 10 losses already.  Therefore, in better shape than Purdue.

Ohio St (15-8) (5-7) NET 17 SoS 54
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 148
4-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kentucky, @Michigan, Nova
Bad losses:  Wisky and Minny?

There's no killer loss on the board (none below Q2-A).  This gives them the cushion they needed to use while they slumped.  Should be fine long-term.

Michigan (14-9) (5-7) NET 31 SoS 37
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 99, avg win 132
6-8 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Gonzaga, MSU, Creighton
Bad losses:  Illinois at home is the worst

All losses are either Q1, or 1 loss at the tippy top of Q2-A.  This gives them the cushion they need - if they can stay within reaching distance of .500 against Q1, they'll be in the single digits of seed.

Indiana (15-8) (5-7) NET 61 SoS 47
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 66, avg win 142
3-7 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, FSU, Ohio St
Bad losses:  Arkansas?

No bad losses, but only 1 true road win.  I suggest getting more.  That NET would suggest to me they're pretty vulnerable.

Minnesota (12-11) (6-7) NET 40 SoS 21
Vital signs:  2-9 R/N, non-con SoS 90, avg win 108
3-10 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept OSU, Penn St, Michigan, Wisky
Bad losses:  DePaul?

At some point, winning percentage matters.  And so does a 1-8 true road record.

Bubble watch: WCC/MWC


Gonzaga (25-1) (11-0) NET 2 SoS 176
Vital signs:  11-1 R/N, non-con SoS 287, avg win 167
5-1 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Arizona, N-Oregon, @St Mary's
Bad losses:  none

Those SoS numbers are really, really not good, so don't lose dumb games, Gonzaga.  (they won't, but the warning stands)

San Diego St (23-0) (13-0) NET 1 SoS 128
Vital signs:  12-0 R/N, non-con SoS 86, avg win 160
4-0 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Creighton, @BYU, N-Iowa
Bad losses:  nah

While there's no signature win over an elite team; the wins are over sufficiently great teams.  Which means they can burn a dumb loss and still be fine for the 1 line.  I don't think there's much that they can do to prevent Baylor and Kansas passing them, though.


BYU (18-7) (8-3) NET 23 SoS 32
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 11, avg win 150
2-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Houston, N-Utah St, St Mary's
Bad losses:  @San Fran isn't great; neither is @Boise

The bad losses aren't bad enough to hurt the resume...they played a ton of high end competition (Kansas, SDSU, etc).  And they beat Houston and Utah St (and Va Tech, but that win has evaporated into thin air).  The strong SoS numbers mean they can absorb a dumb loss if they need to.

St Mary's (19-6) (7-4) NET 39 SoS 80
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 138, avg win 166
2-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  BYU, N-Wisky, Utah St
Bad losses:  Santa Clara, Winthrop

Those 2 home losses in Q3 are just killers.  They did good work in the non-con (Nevada, Arizona St, et al) which gives them some cover.  But they're the most vulnerable of the WCC teams now.

Utah St (17-7) (8-5) NET 49 SoS 99
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 109, avg win 169
2-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-LSU, N-Florida, N-North Texas?
Bad losses:  @UNLV, @Air Force

Two dumb Q3 losses are killer.  Already burned both games with SDSU.  The good news is they have 2 quality wins in the hopper.  They also lost to BYU and St Mary's, which doesn't help.  MWC is better this year, and while no signature win chances remain, they have some road chances coming up that can go down as Q2 wins.  Need to win more than they lose in that category (at minimum).

Quick hits:

MWC is having a rebound year, but Colorado St, Boise St, and Nevada are a tier or two away from any kind of bubble talk.

Bubble watch: A-10/AAC

Combining conferences for a few posts.  Deal with it


Dayton (21-2) (10-0) NET 5 SoS 36
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 32, avg win 149
3-2 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-St Mary's, @Richmond, @St Louis
Bad losses:  both are Q1-A

If anything they'll need to rely on NET to make their case to be a 2 seed, as they won't have the signature wins the other contenders likely will have.  But it would take serious harm to knock them off the top 4 lines at this point.


VCU (17-6) (7-3) NET 32 SoS 77
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 142, avg win 177
1-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  LSU, Richmond, and, um
Bad losses:  N-Tennessee?

No real bad splotches on the resume....but it's short on impact wins.  They gave themselves chances (the SoS is weighed down by a few cupcakes).  They played good teams, and beat LSU at home, and just couldn't cash the neutral/road chances they had.  Even if they had just one of them (URI, Wichita, Purdue, etc), they'd be in much better shape.

Rhode Island (18-5) (10-1) NET 35 SoS 41
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 29, avg win 143
1-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @VCU, VCU, Alabama?
Bad losses:  @Brown

Sweep of VCU is huge, because there's not much heft elsewhere in the resume.  Good SoS numbers, and they've done good handling the teams they should beat, so that gives them a fighting chance.  Season series with Dayton is still in the hopper.

Richmond (17-6) (7-3) NET 55 SoS 86
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 112, avg win 174
2-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @URI, N-Wisky, @Davidson?
Bad losses:  N-Radford, St Louis?

Average NET win probably highlights the resume flaw.  It's not that the signature wins are bad; they just need more depth of wins.

Houston (19-5) (9-2) NET 34 SoS 101
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 248, avg win 147
1-3 vs. Q1, 7-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept Wichita, N-Washington?  @South Carolina?
Bad losses:  Okla St

The non-con SoS got sunk by some cupcakes...Washington and USC aren't great non-con wins, but they'll have to do.  7 Q2 wins is a resume saver, but they have 3 home wins mixed in there that are barely holding onto Q2 status.  Not a safe profile, they need the eye test in their favor.

Wichita St (17-6) (5-5) NET 43 SoS 71
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 156, avg win 155
2-2 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Okla St, VCU, Oklahoma
Bad losses:  @Temple? @Tulsa?

Middling true signature wins...good but not great record in Q1/2 games....pretty standard bubble fare.  Getting swept by Houston is killer as those resume-building games are off the board.

Cincinnati (15-8) (8-3) NET 46 SoS 17
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 30, avg win 124
1-5 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Wichita, Houston, Tennessee?
Bad losses:  Colgate, N-Bowling Green, N-Valpo

3 Q3 losses, missed chances in the Q1 column....strong SoS in its favor though.  Usually, you have to do something with it.  That something might be winning the AAC and getting the quality wins that come with it.

Memphis (17-6) (6-4) NET 60 SoS 89
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 147, avg win 168
1-2 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Tennessee, Cincy?  N-NC State?
Bad losses:  Georgia, South Florida

The hype does not match the resume.  This team's in bigger trouble than I thought.

Quick hits:

Tulsa (15-8) (7-3) NET 81 SoS 156 - their SoS is really, really bad.  Beating Houston and Wichita at home and being in play for the AAC gives them a pulse, but not much of one.

Duquesne slid back...St Bonaventure is 3rd in A-10 but doesn't have a viable resume.  St Louis, I wanted to list, but their 2nd best win is @Kansas St, and they only have 2 Q1/2 wins.  Can't stretch their case.

SMU and UConn have NETs in the mid-70s, so they're not completely dead, but I can't see it.  SMU in particular has a barren resume.  UConn at least beat Cincy and Florida, but nothing really else to work with.

Bubble watch: SEC


Auburn (21-2) (8-2) NET 15 SoS 27
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 38, avg win 113
4-2 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Arky?  Kentucky, LSU
Bad losses:  @Alabama, even though it's Q1

Therein you see Auburn's problems...need more signature wins.  Not saying in-conference wins don't matter, but the lack of high-end non-conference results may keep them off the 2 line (and the 1 line).  We'll see.  Richmond and St Louis were good wins, but won't be enough on their own.

LSU (17-6) (8-2) NET 27 SoS 10
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 10, avg win 124
3-4 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-URI, @Texas?  @Tennessee?
Bad losses:  @Vandy

Really great SoS numbers, but having more or less split all their good non-con games leaves them in a bit of a hole.  The kind of resume that's easily in the tournament and can absorb damage, but with really limited seed upside.

Kentucky (18-5) (8-2) NET 21 SoS 76
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 154, avg win 132
5-2 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Louisville, N-MSU, @TTU
Bad losses:  Evansville LOL

They'd be in a really good spot if they just had 1 terrible loss erased, and did a better job of avoiding cupcakes and dinging the SoS pretty significantly.  4-2 in Q1-A games.  They left themselves a smaller margin of error than most teams towards getting a protected seed, but they're on track to overcome it.


Florida (14-9) (6-4) NET 47 SoS 37
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 31, avg win 123
2-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn, N-Xavier, Alabama?
Bad losses:  @Mizzou, @Ole Miss?

Good SoS numbers.  One Auburn win away from having no true signature wins, with many chances.  Your standard bubble resume.  And 2 with Kentucky and 1 with LSU still coming.

Mississippi St (15-8) (6-4) NET 41 SoS 45
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 101, avg win 148
1-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Florida, Arkansas?  Tennessee?
Bad losses:  La Tech, N-NMSU

They need to stack quality wins, and in a hurry.  However, they're done with Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and LSU for the season.  Big trouble.

Arkansas (16-7) (4-6) NET 38 SoS 23
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 19, avg win 128
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Alabama?  @Indiana?
Bad losses:  South Carolina, @WKU?

Strong SoS but some smoke and mirrors there as it's built on cupcake avoidance and a staggering amount of Q3 home games.

Alabama (13-10) (5-5) NET 42 SoS 20
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 33, avg win 121
1-5 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn,....Richmond?
Bad losses:  Penn, N-UNC counts I guess

Token listing because of the NET ranking.

Quick hits:

South Carolina (14-9) (6-4) NET 76 SoS 68 - 3 Q1 wins...2 Q4 losses.  Can't take them too seriously yet.
Tennessee (13-10) (5-5) NET 67 SoS 41 - good SoS numbers, just too many losses against good competition.

Bubble watch: Big East


Seton Hall (18-5) (10-1) NET 12 SoS 31
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 105, avg win 103
8-4 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, @Butler, @Nova
Bad losses:  home to Xavier?

Pretty solid.  Nothing to add.

Villanova (17-6) (7-4) NET 18 SoS 3
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 35, avg win 113
5-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Kansas, Butler, @Creighton
Bad losses:  all inside Q1

Only real sin is being below .500 within Q1, which just means it's tough to justify a 2 seed for them.

Butler (18-6) (6-5) NET 10 SoS 47
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 186, avg win 128
7-5 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Nova, Creighton, Marquette
Bad losses:  Providence

Of note, they're 0-4 against Q1-A.  7 Q1 wins, just all of the lower variety.  That and the SoS numbers limit the seed upside, but they'll be plenty fine.

Creighton (17-6) (7-4) NET 22 SoS 40
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 124, avg win 118
6-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Nova, N-TTU, Marquette
Bad losses:  @Provi, maybe

Another solid profile with decent seed upside.  Enough signature wins to get a good seed, probably a couple too many losses for the 2 line.

Marquette (17-6) (7-4) NET 24 SoS 12
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 70, avg win 119
6-5 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Butler, Nova, Purdue
Bad losses:  Providence

If there's a criticism, they're 0-6 against Q1-A.  Again, limits seed upside, but they'll be fine.


Xavier (16-8) (5-6) NET 45 SoS 29
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 127, avg win 121
2-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SHU, @DePaul?  Cincy?
Bad losses:  @Wake

Outside of Wake, no real bad losses.  Just a lot of missed opportunities.  Nothing in the profile screams emergency, but rather that they're just quite not good enough.  They'll be in play though.

Georgetown (14-10) (4-7) NET 52 SoS 11
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 48, avg win 143
3-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Creighton, @SMU?  @Okla St?
Bad losses:  UNCG?

Barely listed, to be honest.  Not much here.  Lots of "good" losses, but you have to win some of those games eventually.

Quick hits:

Providence (13-11) (6-5) NET 57 SoS 19 - 4 Q1 wins.  4 losses outside the top 2 quads.  Seems to even out.
St John's (13-11) (2-9) NET 77 SoS 64 - Two signature wins (WVU, Arizona) and absolutely nothing else to work with.
DePaul (12-11) (1-10) NET 63 SoS 78 - 4 Q1 wins....and a whole crapload of losses in conference play.

Bubble watch: Pac-12


Oregon (18-6) (7-4) NET 25 SoS 15
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 19, avg win 107
5-4 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Arizona, N-SHU, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-UNC?  @Wazzu

Your standard solid resume of a 4 seed in all likelihood.  .500 in Q1-A games.  Only real issue is two Q2-B losses.  Volume of losses may prevent a run at the 1 line.  NET also doesn't suggest a high seed.

Colorado (19-5) (8-3) NET 16 SoS 25
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 60, avg win 121
5-2 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, Oregon, Stanford
Bad losses:  @UCLA?  home to Oregon St?

They're pretty solid up and down the board.  4-0 in neutral site games kind of warp the R/N record above.  Juuuuust maybe one too many Q2 losses to be a legit contender for the 2 line right now.

Arizona (16-7) (6-4) NET 11 SoS 6
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 13, avg win 126
2-5 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Colorado, @Washington?  Illinois?
Bad losses:  UCLA, N-St John's

Weird NET.  Very high, but the rest of the resume doesn't hold up.  They need better signature wins to get a top-4 seed.  Very strong SoS numbers, but those numbers are propped up by losses to Gonzaga and Baylor (which is no sin, but still).  A very weird team to try and seed correctly.


USC (17-7) (6-5) NET 50 SoS 55
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 148, avg win 149
3-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-LSU, Stanford
Bad losses:  Temple

Going 3-3 in Q1-B games (0-3 in Q1-A).  Not sure that's quite enough, but having only 1 loss outside of Q1 is a big deal, IMO.  Middling SoS numbers.  This is really a prime bubble resume example.

Stanford (16-7) (5-5) NET 30 SoS 101
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 211, avg win 170
2-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Oregon, N-Oklahoma, Washington?
Bad losses:  @Cal, Oregon St?

Shiny NET, not-so-shiny everything else.  13 Q3-4 games out of 23 so far is a rather ugly mark.  They've won juuuust enough quality games to be relevant.  Still have a game left apiece with the top 3 in the conference, so this resume will shift in quality dramatically, IMO.

Arizona St (15-8) (6-4) NET 53 SoS 29
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 119, avg win 137
3-6 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Arizona, @Washington?  @Oregon St?
Bad losses:  @Wazzu

Barely get listed because of the NET ranking, SoS numbers, and 1 signature win.  Need to get a move on.

Quick hits:

Utah (14-9) (5-6) NET 70 SoS 53 - wins over Kentucky and BYU aren't nothing.  Also not nothing:  1-6 in true road games, 2 Q3 losses, middling SoS numbers.
Oregon St (14-9) (4-7) NET 68 SoS 142 - their resume is a riddle.  Non-con SoS of 335 is a non-starter.  3-0 in Q1-A games (!!!!!!!!!!!!!).  3-9 in Q1-B, Q2, and Q3 games.  Sure, what the hell.  So if they can actually stumble their way to 18-12 or so, we've got a discussion on our hands.

Washington is 2-8 in conference, with a NET of 54.  You figure that one out.  I can't.

Bubble watch: ACC


Louisville (21-3) (12-1) NET 7 SoS 24
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 53, avg win 127
3-3 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Duke, @NCSU?  Michigan?  uh
Bad losses:  all are Q1-A

A profile that is getting damaged because of the ACC's failures.  All of a sudden, just 7 wins inside the top 2 quads, which may block them from the 1 line.  Depth of quality wins could be an issue on that front.  Otherwise, the metrics suggest an easy placement on the 2 or 3 line, give or take.

Duke (20-3) (10-2) NET 6 SoS 23
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 7, avg win 111
3-1 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kansas, @Michigan St, @Syracuse?
Bad losses:  SFA, @Clemson?

Same problem as Louisville, but!  A couple extra road wins, an extra signature win, so in slightly better shape.  Duke vs. Louisville, higher a tight argument right now.

Florida St (20-3) (10-2) NET 14 SoS 56
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 96, avg win 117
3-2 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Louisville, N-Purdue, @Florida
Bad losses:  @Pitt?

More of the same.  In slightly better shape with quantity of Q1/Q2 wins, SoS numbers lag a half-step behind.


Virginia (15-7) (7-5) NET 51 SoS 49
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 164, avg win 141
2-3 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  FSU, @Syracuse?  N-ASU?
Bad losses:  @BC, South Carolina, Syracuse and NCSU?

By default, they're the next ACC team listed.  .500 against the top 2 quads, with that SoS number, probably isn't enough.  Problem is, ACC isn't offering any quality win chances outside of the few chances against elite teams.  Home games left in the hopper with UL and Duke; probably need 1 of them to be safe.

North Carolina St (15-8) (6-6) NET 62 SoS 83
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 60, avg win 156
2-2 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @UVa, @UNCG?  Wisky?
Bad losses:  UNC, Ga Tech

I'm not feeling it.  But they have FSU and a home-and-home with Duke left.

Syracuse (14-9) (7-5) NET 65 SoS 174
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 174, avg win 157
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @UVa?  @Notre Dame?
Bad losses:  VT, Notre Dame

Nominally listed, 4-2 in true road games gives them half a chance on the bubble.  Roadies left with FSU and UL, so the resume can be saved.

Quick hits:

Notre Dame (14-8) (5-6) NET 56 SoS 146 - seems alright on the top level - NET in the 50s.  But their non-con SoS is in the 300s, their average NET win is 190, and their only Q1 win is @Syracuse.  Need multiple signature wins.
Pittsburgh (15-9) (6-7) NET 78 SoS 76 - actually have 2 quality wins (FSU, Rutgers) in the hopper.  Also a Q4 loss and bad SoS numbers.  And the scheduling gods have killed them (done with Duke and Louisville after 1 loss, only 1 game with FSU).
Virginia Tech (14-10) (5-8) NET 79 SoS 167 - non-con SoS in the 300s, so the margin of error was small to begin with.

Bubble watch: Big 12

It's time for another run-through.


Baylor (21-1) (10-0) NET 3 SoS 97
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 182, avg win 118
8-0 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Kansas, Butler, N-Nova, etc etc
Bad losses:  N-Washington is now a mini-disaster

The SoS is rather pedestrian for a usual #1 seed.  Something to keep an eye on, just in case a couple of losses come.

Kansas (19-3) (9-1) NET 1 SoS 1
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, avg win 77
10-3 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, WVU, N-BYU?
Bad losses:  all 3 losses are Q1-A

Can we just take a moment to appreciate this SoS?  Only 3 teams outside the top 100 in NET on the entire thing.  Average win of 77 is insanity.  They do this year in and year out, and have my respect for it.  They even played ETSU and UNCG in the non-con (respect to the SoCon!).  They're 2-3 in games against top-line competition (losing to Baylor, Duke, and Nova).

West Virginia (18-5) (6-4) NET 9 SoS 3
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 5, avg win 89
5-3 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Ohio St, TTU, N-UNI
Bad losses:  @KState and @St John's aren't great

Great SoS numbers, a couple of loose losses on the road prevent a real chance at the 1 line.  Maybe the 2 line too, but the computer numbers are really strong.  Could use a really signature win, and they have 3 more chances in the hopper.


Texas Tech (15-8) (6-4) NET 20 SoS 50
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 178, avg win 166
3-7 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Louisvulle, WVU, @Texas?
Bad losses:  I suppose @TCU

Fun fact:  they've literally played 0 Q3 games.  A mathematical impossibility (that will change).  They've played 6 Q1-A games, and won 2 of them.  That's usually enough for a bubble team, so long as there's no gaping resume holes elsewhere.  And while there's some weak spots (1-3 vs. Q1-B, only 2 true road wins), they're safe...for now.

Oklahoma (15-8) (5-5) NET 48 SoS 46
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 76, avg win 117
3-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  WVU, N-Minnesota?  @Texas?
Bad losses:  @KState, probably

Kind of a junior version of TTU's resume.  Problem is only 1 win over a legit tourney team, which puts pressure down the stretch to pick off another one of those types of wins.  Again, no gaping holes in the resume, but with just 2 true road wins.  Average win is in good shape, though.

Quick hits:

Texas (14-9) (4-6) NET 66 SoS 32 - only 4 wins inside the top 2 quadrants.  One game left with Baylor, and with WVU (both at home)....check back if they win one, just in case

Not sure anyone else is in play.  TCU perhaps, but they're 1-5 on the road and have nothing supporting their home win against TTU on the resume.  The other teams are below .500 overall and have absorbed too many body blows.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

2/8 recap

Strangely enough, I don't have many takeaways from the early reveal today.  Committee never really got unconventional with any of those seeds, IMO.  Things to quibble with here and there; but I found no big picture takeaways.

@Dayton 71, St Louis 65
Rhode Island 82, George Washington 51
Richmond 59, @Fordham 53

@Louisville 80, Virginia 73
Duke 98, @North Carolina 96 (OT) - for just a second there, I was wondering about firing up some hot UNC takes about how they're not dead yet, but....they're probably dead for sure now
@Florida St 99, Miami 81
Boston College 77, @Virginia Tech 73 (OT) - oh good God, the entire ACC is a mess behind the top 3
@Pittsburgh 73, Georgia Tech 64 - is Pitt alive, by default?
@Syracuse 75, Wake Forest 73 - well, I guess Syracuse is still wandering around in the bubble wasteland

@Temple 97, SMU 90 (OT) - sure, road loss, but SMU needs to pick these off to be relevant
South Florida 75, @Memphis 73 - this is getting dicey very quick for Memphis

@Baylor 78, Oklahoma St 70
Kansas 60, @TCU 46
@Oklahoma 69, West Virginia 59 - the type of win that most bubble teams end up getting one of.  A key resume piece
Texas Tech 62, @Texas 57 - road wins are never trivial.  TTU solidifies, but starting to look like the ceiling of the league is 5 bids
@Iowa St 73, Kansas St 63

Seton Hall 70, @Villanova 64 - signature road win, and SHU and the 2 line feels inevitable
@Creighton 94, St John's 82
@Georgetown 76, DePaul 72
@Xavier 64, Providence 58 - go away, Xavier

@Michigan 77, Michigan St 68 - such a desperately needed win for Michigan.....and good God I have no idea how to seed the top of the conference
@Iowa 96, Nebraska 72
@Penn St 83, Minnesota 77
Purdue 74, @Indiana 62 - road wins are solid gold in this conference.  Back to a realistic shot at 11 bids here

@San Diego St 89, Air Force 74
@Utah St 70, Boise St 61

@Oregon St 63, Oregon 53 - oof
UCLA 65, @Arizona 52 - a bigger oof
@Colorado 81, Stanford 74 - an aversion of oof.  Might as well mix Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon's seed in a blender
@Utah 60, California 45
@Arizona St 66, USC 64 - meanwhile, the bubble picture in this conference is weird.  Might get 3 teams in, might get 6, both are reasonable possibilities

@Auburn 91, LSU 90 (OT)
Kentucky 77, @Tennessee 64 - road wins are never trivial
@South Carolina 74, Texas A&M 54 - I dunno, my instincts are telling me to pay attention to USC...
@Ole Miss 68, Florida 51 - dumb road loss.  Road loss, sure, but dumb anyways
@Missouri 83, Arkansas 79 (OT) - ditto
Alabama 105, @Georgia 102 (OT) - dumb road loss averted
@Mississippi St 80, Vanderbilt 70

Gonzaga 90, @St Mary's 60 - GU's resume is still weaker than most think, so margin of victory matters more here.  Act like a 1 seed, get a 1 seed
@BYU 90, San Francisco 76

Liberty 74, @North Alabama 56
@Northern Iowa 83, Drake 73
East Tennessee St 73, @Mercer 60

Friday, February 7, 2020

2/7 recap

Maryland 75, @Illinois 66 - quality road win
@VCU 73, Davidson 62
Harvard 78, @Yale 77

2/6 recap

@Arizona 85, USC 80
@Colorado 71, California 65
@Utah 64, Stanford 56 (OT)
@Arizona St 84, UCLA 66

@Houston 75, Tulane 62
UConn 72, @Tulsa 56 - just in case people were prepping the Tulsa bandwagon
Cincinnati 80, @Wichita St 79 - all of a sudden, WSU is in trouble and Cincy is alive?  Bubble situation in the AAC is weird

@Gonzaga 85, Loyola Marymount 67
BYU 85, @Portland 54
St Mary's 66, @San Diego 60

2/5 recap

@Louisville 86, Wake Forest 76
@Notre Dame 80, Pittsburgh 72
@Virginia 51, Clemson 44
North Carolina St 83, @Miami 72 - feels like NCSU is doing the minimum to stay in this bubble race, but this counts as a positive development

@Butler 79, Villanova 76
Seton Hall 78, @Georgetown 71 - with Butler's win too, it's hard to imagine anyone other than the Hall on the 1 or 2 lines from this conference
@Providence 73, Creighton 56 - not a great look if you want a protected seed

@West Virginia 76, Iowa St 61
@Oklahoma St 72, TCU 57

@Purdue 104, Iowa 68 - the fuck happened here?
@Minnesota 70, Wisconsin 52 - Minny hanging on for dear life

@Vanderbilt 99, LSU 90 - what a terrible loss
@Florida 81, Georgia 75
@Ole Miss 84, South Carolina 70

@Memphis 79, Temple 65

Duquesne 82, @St Louis 68 - home losses are brutal to the resume; StL is a real underdog to get to the tourney now
East Tennessee St 80, @Chattanooga 64 - Furman and UNCG also win
Northern Iowa 63, @Valparaiso 51
@Utah St 69, UNLV 54

2/4 recap

Duke 63, @Boston College 55
@Georgia Tech 76, Virginia Tech 57 - oof

@Maryland 56, Rutgers 51
Penn St 75, @Michigan St 70 - that's a signature road win.  Can we put 6 B1G teams on the 5 line and be done with them?
Ohio St 61, @Michigan 58 - still some time left, but it feels like OSU has corrected itself.  Michigan most certainly has not

Auburn 79, @Arkansas 76 (OT) - one of the better road wins available, so this could actually matter to Auburn's seed.  And for Arky's chances to just get in, period
@Kentucky 80, Mississippi St 72
Tennessee 69, @Alabama 68
@Texas A&M 68, Missouri 51

Xavier 67, @DePaul 59 - ok, NOW I'll pay attention to Xavier again

@Texas Tech 69, Oklahoma 61

@Rhode Island 73, UMass 67

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

2/3 recap

Baylor 73, @Kansas St 67
@Kansas 69, Texas 58

@Florida St 65, UNC 59 - if UNC had won, you could talk me into a hail-mary chance for them.  Heck, still might.  But they need to win them all, starting now

Sunday, February 2, 2020


The 1 line:  Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Duke, Louisville, Florida St, Maryland
The 3 line:  Michigan St, Dayton, Seton Hall, West Virginia
The 4 line:  Auburn, Oregon, Creighton, Villanova
The 5 line:  Iowa, LSU, Kentucky, Arizona
The 6 line:  Butler, Colorado, Penn St, Marquette
The 7 line:  Illinois, Rutgers, Wichita St, Houston
The 8 line:  Stanford, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
The 9 line:  USC, Indiana, Arkansas, Michigan
The 10 line:  BYU, St Mary's, Rhode Island, Oklahoma
The 11 line:  Mississippi St, Northern Iowa, VCU, Florida, Memphis, Virginia
The 12 line:  Tulsa, Yale, Furman, North Texas
The 13 line:  Stephen F Austin, Vermont, New Mexico St, Bowling Green
The 14 line:  Colgate, UC Irvine, UALR, William & Mary
The 15 line:  Wright St, South Dakota St, Austin Peay, Winthrop
The 16 line:  Montana, North Florida, Monmouth, Robert Morris, Texas Southern, North Carolina A&T

Next 4 in:
St Mary's
Rhode Island
Mississippi St

Last 4 in:
Northern Iowa*

Last 4 out:
Virginia Tech

Next 4 out:
East Tennessee St

Break it down!:
B1G 10
BEast 5
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
A-10 3

2/2 recap

@Iowa 72, Illinois 65
@Pitt 62, Miami 57
Georgetown 73, @St John's 72 - road wins are never trivial
@UCLA 73, Utah 57

2/1 recap

@Wisconsin 64, Michigan St 63
Penn St 76, @Nebraska 61
@Michigan 69, Rutgers 63
@Ohio St 68, Indiana 59
Purdue 61, @Northwestern 58

@Baylor 68, TCU 52
@Kansas 78, Texas Tech 75
@West Virginia 66, Kansas St 57
@Texas 72, Iowa St 68
@Oklahoma 82, Oklahoma St 69

Florida St 74, @Virginia Tech 63
Louisville 77, @NC State 57
Duke 97, @Syracuse 88 - a trio of bad results for the ACC - this just polarizes the league further.  3 bubble teams in need of signature wins all miss
@Notre Dame 80, Georgia Tech 72
@BC 71, UNC 70
@Wake Forest 56, Clemson 44

Creighton 76, @Villanova 61 - signature road win alert
Xavier 74, @Seton Hall 62 - the type of home loss that separates the 1 line from the 3 line
Providence 65, @Butler 61 - what the hell is happening in the Big East?
@Marquette 76, DePaul 72

@Stanford 70, Oregon 60 - pretty important home hold given that Stanford's resume is still a bit light
Colorado 78, @USC 57 - quality road win
@Cal 69, Oregon St 67
Arizona 66, @Washington St 49
Arizona St 87, @Washington 83

@Auburn 75, Kentucky 66
@LSU 73, Ole Miss 63
@Georgia 63, Texas A&M 48
@Mississippi St 86, Tennessee 73
@South Carolina 76, Missouri 54
Arkansas 82, @Alabama 78 - a more important road win that it first appears to be
Florida 61, @Vandy 55

@Cincinnati 64, Houston 62
@Tulsa 54, Wichita St 51 - is Tulsa alive?  Well, not really, but there's time yet
@Memphis 70, UConn 63
@SMU 82, Tulane 67

@Dayton 70, Fordham 56
@Richmond 76, George Washington 54
St Louis 78, @St Joe's 73

Gonzaga 83, @San Francisco 79
@BYU 81, St Mary's 79 - home hold, no I'm inclined not to change either of their outlooks

@San Diego St 80, Utah St 68
Northern Iowa 80, @Evansville 68
@East Tennessee St 82, UNC Greensboro 65