Friday, January 31, 2020

1/31 recap

@Penn 75, Harvard 72 (OT) - a mild Ivy upset, but they're all at-large longshots as is.  Perhaps Yale is the best team after all
Bowling Green 78, @Buffalo 77 - we know the best MAC team now

@Rhode Island 87, VCU 75 - this just really pulls both teams closer to the bubble (approaching it in opposite directions)

1/30 recap

@Maryland 82, Iowa 72
@Illinois 59, Minnesota 51 - looks like Minny is the first casualty of the zero sum rule - there's only so many wins to go around in conference play

Oregon 77, @Cal 72
@UCLA 72, Colorado 68 - this is why road wins are never trivial
Arizona 75, @Washington 72 - UW may be dead and buried
@USC 56, Utah 52
Oregon St 68, @Stanford 63 - not a great look for a team that's a computer darling.  Starting to see clearly defined lines in the Pac-12 where Oregon/Colorado/Arizona/USC are above the fray and everyone else is in the middle of it

Gonzaga 87, @Santa Clara 72
@BYU 107, Pepperdine 80
@St Mary's 86, Portland 64

1/29 recap

Baylor 67, @Iowa St 53
@Texas Tech 89, West Virginia 81 - the difference between contending for the 1 line, and settling for the 3 line.  TTU feeling more and more solid in my book
Texas 62, @TCU 61 - road wins are never trivial
@Kansas St 61, Oklahoma 53 - and this is why

@Kentucky 71, Vandy 62

@Michigan St 79, Northwestern 50
@Penn St 64, Indiana 49

Louisville 86, @BC 69
@Notre Dame 90, Wake Forest 80

@LSU 90, Alabama 76
South Carolina 79, @Arkansas 77 - icky home loss.  Again, the middle of the SEC is a mess

@Seton Hall 64, DePaul 57
Marquette 84, @Xavier 82 (2OT) - if nothing else, the top end of the Big East is really solid

@Washington St 67, Arizona St 65

San Diego St 85, @New Mexico 57 - blowing teams out is the type of thing that does matter in the discussion for the 1 line

Dayton 73, @Duquesne 69
St Louis 77, @LaSalle 76

Houston 69, @East Carolina 59
Memphis 59, @UCF 57

@Northern Iowa 95, Missouri St 66

Mercer 71, @East Tennessee St 55 - noooooooooooooooooooooooo.  Terrible, no good, horrible way to burn a loss in the SoCon.  At home to a non-contender.  That's at-large sabotage.

1/28 recap

@Virginia 61, Florida St 56 - the signature win UVa needed to be relevant in the bubble talk long-term
@Duke 79, Pitt 67
@Clemson 71, Syracuse 70
@Miami 71, Virginia Tech 61 - and it might be a good thing UVa won, because no one else is really doing anything on the bubble right now

Villanova 79, @St John's 59
Butler 69, @Georgetown 64

Auburn 83, @Ole Miss 82 (2OT)
Texas A&M 63, @Tennessee 58 - the middle of the SEC just gets more and more confusing
Mississippi St 78, @Florida 71 - see?  Starting to take MSU a bit more seriously, at least
@Missouri 72, Georgia 69

@Rutgers 70, Purdue 63
Michigan 79, @Nebraska 68

@Cincinnati 65, SMU 43

@VCU 87, Richmond 68
Rhode Island 78, @George Mason 64

Monday, January 27, 2020

1/27 recap

Kansas 65, @Oklahoma St 50
@Iowa 68, Wisconsin 62
North Carolina 75, @NC State 65 - boy oh boy, the ACC is really intent on getting the minimum number of bids this season

Sunday, January 26, 2020


I am laughing so hard at what I inadvertently did to the midwest region.  Kansas, Duke, Michigan St, Kentucky, Arizona, Ohio St, Michigan.  Have fun with that.

I know the 3-6-11 lines are broken.  Let's take you behind the scenes.  I have 2 B1G and 1 ACC team on the 3 line, and 2 B1G teams on the 6 line.  There are 2 ACC and 2 B1G teams in the play-in games, that have to be on the 11 line.  Avoiding conflict is impossible, some inter-conference matchups had to be possible in the first two rounds.  I sorta kinda found a tolerable solution, but it resulted in Dayton and VCU in the same subregional, so that was a no-go.  And on top of that, BYU and their no Sunday crap was on the 11 line.

So in the end?  I threw the B1G teams and ACC teams against each other in the play-in games.  Accepted that conflict while solving the other ones.  I'm not going to try and solve an impossible bracket problem in January.  Deal with it.

1) Baylor vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Florida
4) Butler vs. 13) North Texas
5) Auburn vs. 12) East Tennessee St
@St Louis
3) Dayton vs. 14) Arkansas-Little Rock
6) Colorado vs. 11) Purdue/Minnesota
2) Florida St vs. 15) Montana
7) Marquette vs. 10) Memphis

1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Stanford vs. 9) Texas Tech
4) Villanova vs. 13) Vermont
5) LSU vs. 12) Northern Iowa
3) Maryland vs. 14) William & Mary
6) Wichita St vs. 11) VCU
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Rutgers vs. 10) Oklahoma

1) San Diego St vs. 16) Monmouth
8) Indiana vs. 9) USC
4) Oregon vs. 13) Stephen F Austin
5) Creighton vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Louisville vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Penn St vs. 11) BYU
2) West Virginia vs. 15) Wright St
7) Illinois vs. 10) St Mary's

1) Kansas vs. 16) North Florida/Texas Southern
8) Ohio St vs. 9) Arkansas
4) Kentucky vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Iowa vs. 12) Akron
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Colgate
6) Arizona vs. 11) Virginia Tech/Syracuse
2) Duke vs. 15) Austin Peay
7) Houston vs. 10) Michigan


Feel like the identity of the 1 line is pretty well set.  Things are sure to change though.  Teams on the 2 line are going to pick up signature wins, due to the way the teams on the 1 line are clustered.  Whoever inevitably wins the Big East, ACC, and B1G are going to come for the 1 line.

The 4 line is kind of a transition line for me.  Feel good about the top 12-15 separating from the pack.  But once you get to the 5-8 lines, you could almost put these teams in any order and I wouldn't complain.

I haven't fully scrubbed this so I'm sure there's probably a couple spots where I've deviated from the data.

You can tell where I threw my hands up and just threw a bunch of B1G teams into the field.  They have 10 in, and I really didn't want to do 12....but who else would've gone in?

The 1 line:  Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Seton Hall, Duke, West Virginia, Florida St
The 3 line:  Maryland, Michigan St, Dayton, Louisville
The 4 line:  Oregon, Butler, Villanova, Kentucky
The 5 line:  Iowa, Auburn, LSU, Creighton
The 6 line:  Colorado, Arizona, Penn St, Wichita St
The 7 line:  Rutgers, Illinois, Marquette, Houston
The 8 line:  Stanford, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana
The 9 line:  USC, Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas
The 10 line:  St Mary's, Memphis, Michigan, Oklahoma
The 11 line:  BYU, VCU, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Syracuse, Minnesota
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, East Tennessee St, Akron, Yale
The 13 line:  North Texas, Stephen F Austin, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line:  William & Mary, UC-Irvine, Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 15 line:  Wright St, Montana, South Dakota St, Austin Peay
The 16 line:  Winthrop, Monmouth, North Florida, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:

Last 4 in:
Virginia Tech

Last 4 out:
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa*
Rhode Island

Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
Arizona St

Break it down!:
B1G 12
Big East 5
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
A-10 2

1/26 recap

@San Diego St 71, UNLV 67

Michigan St 70, @Minnesota 52
Maryland 77, @Indiana 76 - quality road win.  Starting to feel a little confident Maryland and MSU will eventually separate from the pack in conference, give or take an Illinois
Ohio St 71, @Northwestern 59 - ok, so OSU avoids rock bottom at least

@Oregon 96, UCLA 75
@Cal 52, Stanford 50 - not a good loss, even on the road

@Houston 68, South Florida 49
Tulsa 79, @UConn 75 (OT) - Tulsa probably isn't relevant but I'll keep an eye out

Virginia 65, @Wake 63 (OT) - UVa is doing the bare minimum to stay in the bubble conversation

@St Louis 55, Fordham 39

@Creighton 77, Xavier 66

@Northern Iowa 67, Loyola(Chi) 62 (OT)

Saturday, January 25, 2020

1/25 recap

Big 12/SEC contrived matchup series:
Baylor 72, @Florida 61 - more of a tough break for Florida to draw the most unwinnable game
@Kansas 74, Tennessee 68
@West Virginia 74, Missouri 51 - boy, WVU should probably be offended that they got stuck with this game
Kentucky 76, @Texas Tech 74 - a signature road win for a team that could've used one
@Auburn 80, Iowa St 76 - just like WVU, a team here that has to be disappointed with the matchup
LSU 69, @Texas 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Oklahoma 63, Mississippi St 62
Oklahoma St 73, @Texas A&M 62
@Arkansas 78, TCU 67
@Alabama 77, Kansas St 74

Illinois 64, @Michigan 62 - huh, so Illinois is a thing this year
@Rutgers 75, Nebraska 72 - could you imagine if Rutgers lost this game?

@Florida St 85, Notre Dame 84
@Louisville 80, Clemson 62
@North Carolina 94, Miami 71
@Syracuse 69, Pittsburgh 61
@Boston College 61, Virginia Tech 56 - Syracuse and Va Tech will be two ugly bubble teams by March
@Georgia Tech 64, NC State 58 - and NCSU too.  Oy, ACC, what are you doing this year

Big East:
Villanova 64, @Providence 60
St John's 79, @DePaul 66

@Arizona St 66, Arizona 65
@Colorado 76, Washington 62 - Washington became irrelevant in a hurry here
USC 75, @Oregon St 55 - road wins are never trivial
@Utah 76, Washington St 64

Dayton 87, @Richmond 79 - a legitimate road win, and a precious Q1 chance by the boards for Richmond
VCU 76, @LaSalle 65
@UMass 73, Duquesne 64 - ok, it's the beginning of the end of Duquesne
@Rhode Island 81, St Bonaventure 75

SMU 74, @Memphis 70 - what is you doing Memphis
@Wichita St 87, UCF 79

@Gonzaga 92, Pacific 59
@San Francisco 83, BYU 82 - it's not a bad loss, but doesn't mean it isn't costly
Santa Clara 65, @San Diego 52 - SC is building up a gaudy record if nothing else
St Mary's 73, @Loyola Marymount 62

@Stenson 48, Liberty 43 - UNF was a semi-forgivable loss.  This one isn't.  Endgame.

Friday, January 24, 2020

1/24 recap

@Butler 89, Marquette 85 (OT)
@Purdue 70, Wisconsin 51 - man, there's going to be some ugly W-L marks out of this conference

1/23 recap

@Indiana 67, Michigan St 63 - the entire top of the Big 10 might wind up on the 4 line
Minnesota 62, @Ohio St 59 - ok, now really worried about what to do with OSU

@Oregon 79, USC 70 (2OT) - game effort by USC, but this won't hurt them at least
@Colorado 78, Washington St 56
@Utah 67, Washington 66
UCLA 62, @Oregon St 58

@Houston 63, UConn 59

BYU 74, @Pacific 60
@St Mary's 58, San Francisco 48

@North Florida 71, Liberty 70 - probably the toughest game on the board for Liberty in conference play, but given how low the conference is, perfection was probably required for at-large relevancy

1/22 recap

@Iowa 85, Rutgers 80
Penn St 72, @Michigan 63 - precious, precious road win.  Michigan has time, but they're taking on too many losses in the B1G

@Louisville 68, Georgia Tech 64
Syracuse 84, @Notre Dame 82 - by default, it feels like Syracuse will be our ACC bubble team this year
@Virginia Tech 79, UNC 77 (2OT) - VT has to beat the home cupcakes more convincingly if they want to make the tourney
@Pitt 74, BC 72

Big East:
@Seton Hall 73, Providence 64
@Xavier 66, Georgetown 57 - GU starting to absorb too many losses
Creighton 83, @DePaul 68 - road wins are never trivial, and DePaul is now at risk of becoming trivial, yet again

@Auburn 80, South Carolina 67
@Mississippi St 77, Arkansas 70 - UA shows they're a tier below the top tier in the SEC
Alabama 77, @Vandy 62

@Dayton 86, St Bonaventure 60
@Richmond 75, LaSalle 57
@Rhode Island 77, Duquesne 55 - uh oh Duquesne.  Don't backslide now
@Davidson 71, St Louis 59 - road loss, so somewhat forgivable, but at risk of falling behind the A-10 leaders

@Tulsa 80, Memphis 40 - what
Cincinnati 89, @Temple 82 - Cincy has major resume problems, but don't appear to be dead yet

@Southern Illinois 68, Northern Iowa 66 - I figure UNI can spend a couple more road losses, but be careful

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Bubble watch: everyone else

Gonzaga (20-1) (6-0) NET 4 SoS 232
Vital signs:  8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 282, 3-1 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Arizona, N-Oregon, @Washington?
Bad losses:  none

Um, can a team be a 1 seed with those SoS numbers?  We're going to need to monitor this situation.  The good news for them is they have a strong position against the Pac-12 at least.  Home win over UNC has disintegrated into nothing.

St Mary's (15-4) (3-2) NET 41 SoS 95
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 180, 1-1 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Wisky, BYU
Bad losses:  Santa Clara and Winthrop are on the ledger as Q3s

Not a bulletproof resume.  Merely a good resume instead of a great one.  Some solid Q2 wins to try and mask those Q3 losses.  I do worry that they burned some of their margin of error already.

BYU (13-6) (3-2) NET 38 SoS 29
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 13, 2-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Houston, N-Va Tech
Bad losses:  @Boise St I suppose

The strong SoS numbers have given them some buffer.  3 of their losses are Q1-A, so I'm not as worried as you'd think I'd be about 6 losses already.  Whiffing those signature win chances may be costly though.  Still in a decent position, maybe a better one that St Mary's.

San Diego St (19-0) (9-0) NET 2 SoS 179
Vital signs:  9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 109, 3-0 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @BYU, N-Iowa, N-Creighton
Bad losses:  lol

A case where the Mountain West is starting to drag their numbers down.  Utah St going in the toilet doesn't help their cause (I can't even list USU in this section anymore).  Still, those 3 Q1 wins are gold, since they're all of the R/N variety.

Northern Iowa (14-3) (5-2) NET 35 SoS 111
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 118, 1-1 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Colorado and a lot of marginal ones after that
Bad losses:  @SIU, @Illinois St

2 Q3 losses this early mean the margin of error is dangerously thin.  The other loss is Q1-A, so there's still room before they drop out of the at-large pool, but still.

East Tennessee St (14-3) (6-1) NET 50 SoS 138
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 129, 2-1 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @LSU, @UNCG
Bad losses:  @NDSU

With a NET of 50, they're the one SoCon team within hailing distance of the bubble (I'm tempted to list out UNCG as well, but they have a Q4 loss).  Strengths are obvious in the resume above, and the SoCon is strong enough to not hurt the profile significantly.  Furman, UNCG, and ETSU will provide quality win chances to each other.

Liberty (17-1) (5-0) NET 25 SoS 281 - mentioning them out of obligation.  A top 25 NET is legitimate business...but that SoS, and only 1 win in the top 2 quadrants (N-Akron) with no hope of another one in conference play is going to kill this resume.  A win at Vandy has turned into a nothingburger.

1/21 recap

Big 12:
@Kansas 81, Kansas St 60 - a nice boring game where I'm sure nothing happened
@TCU 65, Texas Tech 54 - the type of loss that will separate TTU from the top 3 in the league
@Iowa St 89, Oklahoma St 82 - both teams can be safely ignored

@Duke 89, Miami 59
@Clemson 71, Wake Forest 68

Big East:
@Villanova 76, Butler 61 - one of those "status" quo games where I'm not rushing to move either team way up or way down, IMO.  Both will be seeded highly at this rate
@Marquette 82, St John's 68

@Kentucky 89, Georgia 79
@LSU 84, Florida 82
Texas A&M 66, @Missouri 64
@Tennessee 73, Ole Miss 48

Big 10:
Maryland 77, @Northwestern 66 - this road win is trivial
Illinois 79, @Purdue 62 - this road win isn't trivial
@Wisconsin 82, Nebraska 68

Wichita St 56, @South Florida 43

VCU 73, @St Joseph's 60

@San Diego St 72, Wyoming 55

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Bubble watch: AAC

Houston (14-4) (4-1) NET 34 SoS 92
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 227, 2-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @WSU, N-Washington?
Bad losses:  home to Okla St probably

The non-con SoS is a modest issue.  The AAC is of average strength for them; which means there's some margin of error but not a lot.  Getting @WSU in their back pocket in conference play put them a leg ahead of the bubble for now.

Memphis (14-3) (3-1) NET 26 SoS 77
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 105, 2-2 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-NCSU, @Tennessee?
Bad losses:  home to Georgia probably

The computer metrics should be of help here.  The resume lacks the high-end result you'd need to feel truly safe, though.

Wichita St (15-3) (3-2) NET 31 SoS 82
Vital signs:  3-2 R/N, non-con SoS 155, 1-1 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Memphis, VCU?  Oklahoma?
Bad losses:  @Temple, but that's not all that bad

Kind of in the same boat as the other top two teams here.  In good, but not great, shape.  Kind of a glut of Q2 wins, but we'll have to wait and see if that spike is just a product of the early conference schedule.

I can't make a healthy case for Cincinnati (NET 61) at the moment....just 2 Q2 wins buttressing the resume.  Tulsa may be 12-6 but their computer numbers are sour.  SMU's resume isn't quite there.  Neither is Temple's.

1/20 recap

@Baylor 61, Oklahoma 57
@West Virginia 97, Texas 59

NC State 53, @Virginia 51 - ok now Virginia might be in real, real trouble.  Road wins, meanwhile, are not trivial.  Big pickup for NCSU

Monday, January 20, 2020

Bubble watch: A-10

Dayton (16-2) (5-0) NET 5 SoS 48
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 27, 3-2 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-St Mary's, N-VT, @St Louis?
Bad losses:  none

The bad news is there's no win that holds up as truly signature, that can compare against other contenders for a 1 or 2 seed.  They'll need to lean on the metrics.  Good news is the A-10 is strong enough this year to support those arguments.

Duquesne (15-2) (5-0) NET 55 SoS 260
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 283, 0-0 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  St Louis, N-Indiana St??
Bad losses:  N-UAB, N-Marshall

The problems are glaring in this resume.  Indiana St is the only Q2 game in the non-con, and they are teetering on the edge.  2 Q3 losses.  Good news is they'll get a handful of quality win chances, but they need to win them.  A gaudy record is NOT enough on its own.  Beware.

VCU (13-5) (3-2) NET 45 SoS 68
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 135, 1-3 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  LSU, @Charleston?
Bad losses:  URI at home?

Their SoS is a little weighed down by cupcakes.  They did play tough non-con games.  Problem is they lose to Purdue and WSU and Tennessee.  Needed a 2nd quality win to pair with LSU to feel more comfortable.  One home game with Dayton in hand, they need that or a handful of Q2 wins in conference play.

Richmond (14-4) (4-1) NET 56 SoS 95
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 2-2 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Wisky, @URI?
Bad losses:  N-Radford

5 true road wins is no trivial matter.  And they at least have one non-con win to lean on.  Work to do, but this at-large case is doable.

St Louis (13-4) (3-2) NET 54 SoS 46
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 98, 1-4 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Richmond, @KState?
Bad losses:  none

Kind of a classic resume where they win all the easy games and lose all the tough ones.

Rhode Island (12-5) (4-1) NET 61 SoS 52
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 1-3 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Alabama, @VCU
Bad losses:  @Brown

Kind of just barely on the edge of viable at the moment.  Enough quality win chances in the A-10 to make this resume more attractive though.

1/19 recap

I'll finish bubble watches of the mid-majors soon.  (let's see how AAC fans react to being lumped into this group instead of the 6 conferences I did yesterday)

@Rutgers 64, Minnesota 56

...I think nothing else warrants mentioning on this day.

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Bubble watch: Pac-12

Oregon (15-4) (4-2) NET 16 SoS 16
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 25, 5-2 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Arizona, N-Seton Hall, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-UNC, @Wazzu?

A couple bad losses away from a bigtime resume.

Arizona (13-5) (3-2) NET 11 SoS 11
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 1-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Colorado and Illinois at home?
Bad losses:  N-St John's probably

Still no true road win on the resume.  Chances will come though.  No high end win, which is surprising given the computer numbers.  This resume could have a large variance.

Stanford (15-3) (4-1) NET 14 SoS 100
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 162, 0-3 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Washington and N-Oklahoma count?
Bad losses:  none

Lost all 3 of their tough games...undefeated in games they should have won.  Don't get ahead of yourselves in thinking this team should be seeded highly yet.

Colorado (14-4) (3-2) NET 21 SoS 27
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 75, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, Oregon
Bad losses:  Oregon St

They picked up 4 Q1/Q2 wins in the non-con, giving them a working buffer that other Pac-12 teams don't have.  So they're a step ahead of, say, Stanford and Arizona on that front.

USC (15-3) (4-1) NET 46 SoS 77
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 110, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Stanford, N-LSU, @TCU?
Bad losses:  Temple

4 true road wins is a nice start to the resume, but the SoS is hurt by some back-end cupcakes.  3 Q1 wins is another nice resume feature.

Washington (12-7) (2-4) NET 47 SoS 5
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 1-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Baylor, USC?
Bad losses:  @Cal, UCLA

A strong SoS metric and a true signature win saves an otherwise marginal profile.  That Baylor win is everything.  They desperately need to add depth to this resume.

Arizona St (11-7) (2-3) NET 61 SoS 43
Oregon St (12-6) (2-4) NET 67 SoS 186
Utah (10-7) (1-4) NET 79 SoS 56

Can't quite talk myself into these resumes yet.  Utah beat Kentucky and BYU, but lost a few toss-up games and is behind the chains.  Oregon St has the wins, but also has hideous SoS numbers.  ASU is missing any win of legitimate substance.

Bubble watch: SEC

Auburn (15-2) (3-2) NET 20 SoS 26
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 1-2 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Mississippi St?  NC State at home?
Bad losses:  @Alabama I suppose

So weird.  Look at that non-con SoS.  A lot of smart scheduling in there.  Furman, Davidson, New Mexico, Colgate, St Louis, Richmond.  Well done.  Unfortunately, that means they're missing signature wins, and chances in the SEC will be limited.  Great teams can still get a high seed through good performance, though.

LSU (13-4) (5-0) NET 23 SoS 11
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 15, 2-2 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Liberty?  @Tennessee?
Bad losses:  N-Utah St doesn't look good anymore

A strange resume where the SoS numbers are strong but they lack a high-end win.

Kentucky (13-4) (4-1) NET 27 SoS 95
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 188, 4-1 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Michigan St, Louisville, @Arky?
Bad losses:  Evansville, holy crap

The SoS numbers aren't that great, you know.  One of the hidden downfalls of Calipari's teams is that he doesn't put together elite SoSs.  In a year where the SEC is down and won't help him out, that matters.  High end wins are there; depth of wins isn't.

Arkansas (14-3) (3-2) NET 32 SoS 35
Vital signs:  3-2 R/N, non-con SoS 29, 1-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Indiana, and nothing else
Bad losses:  @WKU

They need something of substance, and frankly a few somethings.  Other peripherals are there, though.

Florida (12-5) (4-1) NET 39 SoS 33
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 54, 1-2 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburnb, N-Xavier?
Bad losses:  I suppose N-Utah St

Another resume with solid peripherals all around, but needing more substance.  The good news is the 5 Q2 wins should carry some value.  4 neutral site wins among those 5 R/N, so that number is a bit deceiving.

Tennessee (11-6) (3-2) NET 63 SoS 46
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 50, 2-6 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-VCU, N-Washington
Bad losses:  none

More of a case of missed chances with this resume.  They'll get more, but they desperately need a volume of wins.

Alabama (10-7) (3-2) NET 43 SoS 14
Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 39, 1-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn, Richmond?
Bad losses:  Penn, N-UNC counts as one lol

Only listed because they beat Auburn and have a confounding NET/SoS ranking.

Mississippi St (11-6) (2-3) NET 57 SoS 29 - nominally listed because of the computer numbers, but there's nothing in the resume yet.

By the way, South Carolina and their 3 Q1 wins (including Kentucky and @Virginia) have a NET of 98.  That tells you where the rest of the resume is.  4-1 in true road games though, so do monitor this situation.

Bubble watch: Big East


Seton Hall (14-4) (6-0) NET 12 SoS 24
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 95, 6-3 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Butler, Maryland, Marquette
Bad losses:  @Iowa St?

A lot of quality wins, and road wins (3 road wins in Q1-B).  I do wonder about their upside as a top 2 seed, though.  The depth of wins isn't quite as good as you'd think.

Villanova (14-3) (4-1) NET 17 SoS 20
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 61, 2-3 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Kansas, @Creighton
Bad losses:  none outside Q1-A

Only thing the resume is missing is quality win depth.  There's time for that.

Butler (15-3) (3-2) NET 7 SoS 60
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 147, 2-3 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Stanford, N-Purdue, Creighton?
Bad losses:  @DePaul?

7-0 in Q2 is underrated solid work.


Marquette (13-5) (3-3) NET 30 SoS 37
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 109, 3-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Villanova, N-USC, @Georgetown?
Bad losses:  Providence

They've lost their 4 Q1-A games; that keeps them out of the lockbox for now.  Everything else is more or less in order here.

Creighton (13-5) (3-3) NET 33 SoS 35
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 4-5 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-TTU, Marquette, @Xavier?
Bad losses:  @Georgetown?

Your standard bubble-plus resume.  Done enough to be comfortably in, but nowhere near enough to be safe yet.

Georgetown (12-7) (2-3) NET 52 SoS 23
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 1-4 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SMU? Creighton or N-Texas?
Bad losses:  UNCG at home?  @Providence

They're going to need better quality wins to have a real chance.  Pretty open and shut bubble case.

DePaul (12-5) (1-4) NET 51 SoS 115
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 276, 4-2 vs. Q1, 0-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Butler, @Iowa, TTU
Bad losses:  Buffalo, Provi

DePaul makes the bubble watch.  What a time to be alive.  They've got SoS problems, though.  The good news is that their 4 Q1 wins all appear to be legit, so there's a good framework of a resume they can build on.

Xavier (12-6) (1-4) NET 68 SoS 38
St John's (12-7) (1-5) NET 76 SoS 100
Providence (11-8) (4-2) NET 80 SoS 49

Here's the rest of the conference.  St John's has downballot problems (2 signature wins in WVU and N-Arizona followed up by a large volume of meh losses and a bad non-con SoS).  But I generally lump all 3 in the category of unlikely...but possible.  They have a chance to build an at-large resume, but there's work to do in a fairly deep conference.

Bubble watch: ACC

This conference is secretly a tire fire.


Duke (15-3) (5-2) NET 6 SoS 14
Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 8, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kansas, @MSU, @VT
Bad losses:  SFA, @Clemson?

There's enough in the resume to make a claim for the 1 line if they win the ACC.

Louisville (15-3) (6-1) NET 10 SoS 8
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 80, 4-3 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Duke, Michigan
Bad losses:  all 3 losses are Q1-A

There's a distinct lack of depth in their quality win list, and the ACC isn't exactly teeming with opportunities.  This is just me tempering everyone's expectations that a 1 seed might be a foregone conclusion.

Florida St (16-2) (6-1) NET 13 SoS 29
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 51, 3-2 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Louisville, @Florida, N-Purdue
Bad losses:  @Pitt?

All resume qualities are in good shape at the moment.


Virginia Tech (13-5) (4-3) NET 44 SoS 160
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 331, 3-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Michigan St, and some middling wins
Bad losses:  Syracuse?

Hilarously, they have not played a single Q3 game, and have played 8 Q4 games.  A pretty glaring resume hole, and they're going to need to win a lot of league games to mask it.

Virginia (12-5) (4-3) NET 60 SoS 70
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 145, 1-2 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Syracuse?  Va Tech?
Bad losses:  @BC, South Carolina

No true signature wins (road win at #69 is the best)?  Marginal SoS?  2 Q3 losses?  This situation doesn't seem promising.

North Carolina St (13-5) (4-3) NET 48 SoS 73
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 78, 2-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Wisky, @UNCG?
Bad losses:  Ga Tech

Haven't really played any notable conference games yet, so I don't have a good read on their chances yet.

Syracuse (11-7) (4-3) NET 69 SoS 68
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 174, 2-3 vs. Q1, 1-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @VT, @UVa
Bad losses:  N-OklaSt?  Notre Dame?

Lost too many tossup games to date.  They've got more coming, though.

Pittsburgh (12-6) (3-4) NET 73 SoS 65
Clemson (9-8) (3-4) NET 75 SoS 25
Notre Dame (11-6) (2-4) NET 74 SoS 213

Piling these teams together.  Can't imagine these profiles leading to an at-large bid, but there's juuuuust enough done so far by these teams that makes me think it's possible.  But unlikely.

Bubble watch: Big 12


Baylor (15-1) (5-0) NET 1 SoS 79
Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 184, 5-1 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Kansas, N-Villanova, @TTU, others
Bad losses:  N-Washington probably counts, if we're talking about a 1 seed

5 Q1-A wins are strong.  Non-con SoS is deceiving a bit, they have Butler, Arizona, and N-Villanova on that ledger.  The computers are dinging them for some bad cupcakes.  That's going to matter if the race for the 1 seed is close in March.  But there's the real chance they play well enough to not make it close.

Kansas (13-3) (4-1) NET 4 SoS 1
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 7-3 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, WVU, @Stanford
Bad losses:  all 3 losses are Q1-A

Perhaps just missing the truly elite win - lost to Duke and Baylor so far.  Everything else is in sterling shape.

West Virginia (14-3) (3-2) NET 9 SoS 2
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 3, 5-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Ohio St, TTU, N-Wichita St
Bad losses:  probably @K-State, @St John's

Really really strong computer numbers.  The two marginal road losses kill the chance at the 1 line, but a reasonable chance at a very strong 2 or 3 seed.


Texas Tech (12-5) (3-2) NET 25 SoS 110
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 225, 1-5 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Louisville, @K-State?
Bad losses:  @DePaul, I suppose

2 Q1-2 wins is very light.  A staggering 8 Q4 games in the non-con, they're just very lucky their top 4 non-con games were strong.  Otherwise the non-con SoS would be a disaster instead of just bad.  Not a strong resume at all right now.

Oklahoma (12-5) (3-2) NET 53 SoS 41
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 2-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Minnesota, @Texas
Bad losses:  @ISU?

Your garden variety bubble resume.  Very good but not great computer numbers.  No real signature win, just a few good solid wins and some losses in all their toughest games.  Will need to pick off a couple games against teams ahead of them.

Texas (12-5) (2-3) NET 59 SoS 61
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 158, 1-2 vs. Q1, 1-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Purdue, @Oklahoma St
Bad losses:  @Providence, Oklahoma at home?

If Oklahoma was garden variety, Texas is a poor man's garden variety.  Need quality wins, and more resume heft in general.

TCU (11-5) (3-2) NET 65 SoS 102
Vital signs:  2-3 R/N, non-con SoS 165, 0-2 vs. Q1, 1-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Kansas St is it lol
Bad losses:  N-Clemson probably

Not a lot to say here.  Needs help in conference.  Note that the bottom falls out even more behind TCU - not profiling the bottom 3 teams here.  Big 12 is precarious in that they have 3 top teams, but not a lot behind them.  I'd wager on TTU finding a way into the field, and the law of averages say one of OU, UT, and TCU get in, but that's about it.

Bubble watch: B1G

Let's bang out some bubble watches today.  Start with the conference lording over the NET rankings.

All numbers through  May be out of date by a day or so, don't take them as gospel.


Michigan St (14-4) (6-1) NET 8 SoS 28
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 4-4 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Seton Hall, and tons of home holds (Wisky, Michigan, Rutgers, et al)
Bad losses:  does N-Va Tech count?

No significant holes in the resume.

Maryland (14-4) (4-3) NET 15 SoS 8
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 27, 2-4 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Ohio St, N-Marquette
Bad losses:  all 4 losses are Q1-A

Still don't actually have a true road win on the resume.  0-3 in conference.  Will need to be fixed at some point, but there's time again.


Ohio St (12-6) (2-5) NET 19 SoS 39
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 82, 2-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Villanova, N-Kentucky
Bad losses:  none individually, 4 conference road losses add up though

They should be fine long term, but they're already 0-4 on the road in the B1G.  Gotta get a couple, otherwise their seed will tank.

Rutgers (12-4) (4-2) NET 18 SoS 18
Vital signs:  1-4 R/N, non-con SoS 34, 2-3 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Seton Hall, Wisky
Bad losses:  N-Bonaventure, @Pitt?

It's kind of jarring to see such strong computer numbers behind Rutgers.  They have a couple weird losses, and just one 1 road win, and only 4 Q1-2 wins.  So there's time for this to go sideways.

Michigan (11-6) (2-4) NET 29 SoS 48
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 2-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Gonzaga, Iowa, Creighton
Bad losses:  none individually, but 5 road losses sting

All 3 of those road/neutral wins were in Atlantis.  And 2 of them (Iowa St, UNC) have evaporated into little more than resume fodder.  SoS has disappointed, and they either need to start picking off road games or lean really hard on the Gonzaga win.

Iowa (13-5) (4-3) NET 26 SoS 97
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 170, 4-3 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, N-TTU, Michigan?
Bad losses:  @Nebraska

3 road wins in the top 2 quads already, which is not a trivial number.  Also not trivial:  the non-con SoS, which is about the only thing keeping me from going all-in on this resume.  But I think they'll be fine.

Wisconsin (11-7) (4-3) NET 22 SoS 3
Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 5-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, @OSU, @PSU
Bad losses:  N-New Mexico isn't that terrible, but still

Strong SoS numbers will mask a problem with the sheer number of losses.  Also 5 Q1 wins as well.  This resume can support the at-large candidacy of a 18-14 overall record if it comes to it.

Penn St (13-5) (3-4) NET 36 SoS 127
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 315, 4-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, Ohio St, N-Iowa
Bad losses:  N-Ole Miss

Shouldn't take long to find the hole in this resume.  There is a road win at Georgetown hidden in this resume, but it'll take some work in the conference to mask the rest of the non-con. 

Purdue (10-8) (3-4) NET 35 SoS 31
Vital signs:  2-7 R/N, non-con SoS 24, 2-6 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Michigan St, N-VCU, Minnesota
Bad losses:  @Nebraska

They've played a staggering 7 games already inside Q1-A - and lost 6 of them.  They might be the king of the scenario where if you get enough chances, you'll win just enough to get in the tournament.  Another case like Wisconsin where a 18-14 record can be enough - but they need a couple more signature wins first.

Minnesota (10-7) (4-3) NET 41 SoS 27
Vital signs:  1-6 R/N, non-con SoS 52, 2-4 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  OSU, Michigan, Penn St
Bad losses:  @Utah is the worst

Their only win away from home is Oklahoma State on a neutral.  Needless to say, this has gotta change, and they're going to have to pick off a couple big games to eventually get in.  Chances abound, though.  This is the resume that feels most vulnerable in the conference right now.

Indiana (14-4) (4-3) NET 49 SoS 53
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 42, 2-3 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  FSU, Ohio St, and that's about it
Bad losses:  perhaps Arkansas

It's kind of a naked profile, even with the SoS numbers.  The good news is the FSU win should hold up as a signature win.  And there's time to add depth to the profile.  They need a quantity of good wins right now.

Illinois (12-5) (5-2) NET 40 SoS 85
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 241, 3-3 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Wisky, Rutgers, Michigan
Bad losses:  Miami

Kind of a junior version of the Penn St resume, with the SoS being a problem.  Plenty of time to add the quality wins needed to make this an at-large profile though.  More vulnerable than it would appear.

Saturday, January 18, 2020

1/18 recap

@Maryland 57, Purdue 50
@Penn St 90, Ohio St 76 - good luck to the committee trying to parse out how much home court should be worth in this conference
@Illinois 75, Northwestern 71
Indiana 82, @Nebraska 74

Big 12:
Baylor 75, @Oklahoma St 68
Kansas 66, @Texas 57 - I'm not sure if the conference can provide enough resume value to put 2 teams on the 1 line, but it's in play
@Kansas St 84, West Virginia 68 - the type of game that 1 or 2 seeds don't lose, but 4 or 5 seeds drop every once in awhile.  You can tell where I think WVU is trending
@Texas Tech 72, Iowa St 52
@Oklahoma 83, TCU 63

Louisville 79, @Duke 73 - signature road win, and it's clearly UL with the best chance at the 1 line in this conference now
Florida St 83, @Miami 79 - at the least, FSU is making sure it's a 3-team breakaway at the top of this conference
@Pitt 66, UNC 52 - lol
Syracuse 71, @Virginia Tech 69 - kind of a dumb home loss
@NC State 60, Clemson 54
Virginia 63, @Georgia Tech 58

@Florida 69, Auburn 47 - that's a weird blowout to me
Kentucky 73, @Arkansas 66
South Carolina 81, @Texas A&M 67
@Alabama 88, Missouri 74
Tennessee 66, @Vandy 45
LSU 80, @Ole Miss 76
@Mississippi St 91, Georgia 59

Big East:
@DePaul 79, Butler 66 - not a place you want to spend a road loss at.  The rest of the conference is tough enough as is
@Villanova 61, UConn 55 - well it might as well be a conference game already
Seton Hall 82, @St John's 79
@Creighton 78, Providence 74
Marquette 84, @Georgetown 80

Oregon 64, @Washington 61 (OT)
@Arizona 75, Colorado 54
@Washington St 89, Oregon St 76
@USC 82, Stanford 78 (OT) - starting to think both teams will be fine long-term
@Arizona St 83, Utah 64

Houston 65, @Wichita St 54 - quality road win should breathe some life into this resume
@SMU 68, Temple 52

@VCU 91, St Bonaventure 63
Richmond 97, @George Mason 87 - instincts are telling me Richmond>VCU>everyone else, behind Dayton

@Gonzaga 92, BYU 69 - goodness, Gonzaga
St Mary's 78, @Pepperdine 69

@San Diego St 68, Nevada 55
Northern Iowa 86, @Bradley 71
@Boise St 88, Utah St 83 (OT) - yeah, we're probably done with USU now

1/17 recap

Dayton 78, @St Louis 76 - that might be the toughest A-10 game on the schedule for Dayton.  Could be clear sailing and a very difficult seed decision to come

@Michigan St 67, Wisconsin 55
@Iowa 90, Michigan 83

Friday, January 17, 2020

1/16 recap

@Gonzaga 104, Santa Clara 54
@BYU 93, San Diego 70

@Washington St 72, Oregon 61
Colorado 68, @Arizona St 61
@Arizona 93, Utah 77
@USC 88, Cal 56
@Washington 64, Oregon St 56

@Memphis 60, Cincinnati 49

1/15 recap

@Rutgers 59, Indiana 50 - I refuse to accept Rutgers is good.  Refuse.
@Minnesota 75, Penn St 69

Big 12:
@Baylor 68, Iowa St 55
Texas 76, @Oklahoma St 64

@Alabama 83, Auburn 64 - Auburn was due for one of these.  Still on the 1 line imo
@South Carolina 81, Kentucky 78 - I'm starting to worry about the state of the SEC in general
@Georgia 80, Tennessee 63
@Arkansas 75, Vanderbilt 55

Big East:
Seton Hall 78, @Butler 70 - signature road win, and I like the way the top of the Big East is forming up
@Georgetown 83, Creighton 80
@Marquette 85, Xavier 65
@Providence 63, St John's 58

@Florida St 54, Virginia 50
@Syracuse 76, Boston College 50
@NC State 80, Miami 63
Notre Dame 78, @Georgia Tech 74

Stanford 74, @UCLA 59

@Temple 65, Wichita St 53 - the first conference road loss doesn't hurt the resume too badly.  Everyone gets one
@Houston 71, SMU 62

@Duquesne 58, Fordham 56 (OT) - will this team just go away already

1/14 recap

@Clemson 79, Duke 72 - officially really weird times in the ACC.  And I don't think the conference is strong enough to allow Duke to respond and fight for a 1 seed, without some help elsewhere
Louisville 73, @Pitt 68 (OT) - good lord, ACC
Virginia Tech 80, @Wake Forest 70

Big 12:
Kansas 66, @Oklahoma 52 - as evidenced by the Duke loss, these road wins are bigger than you think
@West Virginia 81, TCU 49 - WVU might be falling victim to a crowded conferences.  Can the Big 12 put 3 teams on the top 2 lines?  It's a big ask
Texas Tech 77, @Kansas St 63

Big East:
@Villanova 79, DePaul 75 (OT)

@Wisconsin 56, Maryland 54
@Ohio St 80, Nebraska 68
Iowa 75, @Northwestern 62

@Florida 71, Ole Miss 55
LSU 89, @Texas A&M 85 (OT)
@Mississippi St 72, Missouri 45

San Diego St 64, @Fresno St 55 - I have this weird feeling we're careening towards Gonzaga and SDSU being 4 and 5 on the S-Curve in March, and the committee stashing them both in the west regional

@Dayton 79, VCU 65
Richmond 70, @Davidson 64

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

1/13 recap


1/12 recap

@Purdue 71, Michigan St 42 - wait what
@Minnesota 75, Michigan 67 - just assume everyone in the B1G is good enough to make the tourney at this point

@Oregon St 82, Arizona 65
@Colorado 91, Utah 52

Memphis 68, @USF 64
Wichita St 89, @UConn 86 (OT) - seems like UM and WSU should separate from the rest in this conference

@Miami 66, Pitt 58

1/11 recap

@Indiana 66, Ohio St 54 - road losses aren't that bad, but at some point OSU can't keep dropping all these games.  Having a tough time figuring out their seed range
Wisconsin 58, @Penn St 49 - road wins, meanwhile, are pure gold
@Illinois 54, Rutgers 51
@Northwestern 62, Nebraska 57

@Duke 90, Wake Forest 59
Louisville 67, @Notre Dame 64
Syracuse 63, @Virginia 55 (OT) - I'm not exactly expecting Syracuse to do much with this resume boost, but there it is nonetheless.  Hey, someone's gotta get bids out of this conference
@Virginia Tech 72, NC State 58 - still plenty of season to go, but it feels like VT is one fairly safe bet to crawl out of the middle of this conference
Clemson 79, @UNC 76 (OT) - lol
Georgia Tech 71, @Boston College 52

Big 12:
Baylor 67, @Kansas 55 - a signature road win, and the type of win that gets you to the 1 line
@West Virginia 66, Texas Tech 54
@TCU 52, Oklahoma St 40
@Iowa St 81, Oklahoma 68
@Texas 64, Kansas St 50

@Auburn 82, Georgia 60
@Kentucky 76, Alabama 67
@Tennessee 56, South Carolina 55
Texas A&M 69, @Vanderbilt 50
Arkansas 76, @Ole Miss 72
@LSU 60, Mississippi St 59
@Missouri 91, Florida 75

@Oregon 78, Arizona St 69
@Stanford 88, Washington St 62
@Cal 61, Washington 58 (OT)
USC 74, @UCLA 63

Big East:
@Villanova 80, Georgetown 66
@St John's 74, DePaul 67
Creighton 77, @Xavier 65 - road wins are gold
@Seton Hall 69, Marquette 55

Cincinnati 68, @UCF 54
Tulane 65, @Temple 51
@East Carolina 71, SMU 68
@Tulsa 63, Houston 61 - not a great day at-large for the conference

@Dayton 88, UMass 60
Rhode Island 65, @VCU 56 - a modestly surprising road win
George Mason 76, @LaSalle 63
Duquesne 66, @George Washington 61
St Louis 74, @Richmond 58 - feels like St Louis is closest to joining Dayton in a breakaway for an at-large lock

@Gonzaga 87, Loyola Marymount 62 - just counting down the days until Gonzaga is the 1 out west
Santa Clara 67, @St Mary's 66 - UH OH.  That I didn't expect.  Or, maybe Santa Clara is actually good?  I lean towards this being back for the WCC, but we'll see
@BYU 96, Portland 70

@San Diego St 83, Boise St 65
@Utah St 80, Nevada 70

Northern Iowa 80, @Missouri St 57

Monday, January 13, 2020

1/10 recap

Butler 70, @Providence 58
@Iowa 67, Maryland 49

1/9 recap

Gonzaga 94, @San Diego 50
@St Mary's 87, BYU 84 (OT) - BYU's the one team that could really, really use a big conference win just in case for the resume.  Precious chance by the boards

@Michigan St 74, Minnesota 58
@Michigan 84, Purdue 78 (2OT) - that was almost a dumb loss

@Oregon 74, Arizona 73 (OT) - kind of a status quo game for both teams in my book
@Stanford 61, Washington 55
@Cal 73, Washington St 66
Arizona St 82, @Oregon St 76 - I'm struggling to get a read on the middle of the Pac-12 right now.  Feel confident that they can stretch to 6 bids, but struggling to identify them right now

@Wichita St 76, Memphis 67

1/8 recap

I'm fearing my off-and-on schedule is going to last a couple more weeks.  I'm trying, but I lack the cap space (read:  time) that other bracketologists likely have right now.

Duke 73, @Georgia Tech 64
Florida St 78, @Wake Forest 68
Pitt 73, @UNC 65 - jesus christ, Roy Williams
@NC State 73, Notre Dame 68
Interesting division of the top and bottom of this conference.  Definitely weaker in the middle this year.  Usually, the resume of the top teams are littered with Q1 wins provided by regular conference play...but the resumes of the top teams won't be quite as deep this year.  Could turn a 2 seed into a 3 seed, for example.  Duke and FSU can afford maybe one or two less slip-ups from here on in

Big East:
@Georgetown 87, St John's 66
Seton Hall 83, @Xavier 71 - this should hold up as a quality win

@Indiana 66, Northwestern 62
Illinois 71, @Wisconsin 70 - Illinois is.....good?  These are precious road wins

Big 12:
Kansas 79, @Iowa St 53
Oklahoma 72, @Texas 62

@Auburn 83, Vanderbilt 79
@Alabama 90, Mississippi St 69
@LSU 79, Arkansas 79

@Cincinnati 75, Tulsa 44
@SMU 81, UCF 74
@UConn 67, Tulane 61

San Diego St 72, @Wyoming 52

Duquesne 78, @St Joseph's 60
@Rhode Island 69, Davidson 58
St Bonaventure 61, @George Mason 49
@UMass 77, LaSalle 69
@St Louis 63, George Washington 58
I'm kind of not sure what to make of the A-10.  I feel fairly confident that this group of teams will band together and combine for 3 bids, but hell if I know which 3

Stony Brook 81, @Vermont 77
East Tennessee St 64, @UNCG 57
Texas A&M-CC 73, @Stephen F Austin 72 - that's a terrible loss

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

1/7 recap

Big 12:
Baylor 57, @Texas Tech 52 - I have a feeling every road win like this will be gold.  I expect Baylor to separate with Kansas at the top of the conference now
TCU 59, @Kansas St 57

@Maryland 67, Ohio St 55 - I have a feeling the B1G is going to place like 7 teams on the 3 line
@Rutgers 72, Penn St 61 - a pretty bad road loss.  I don't care what anything else says, Rutgers is a bad team
@Nebraska 76, Iowa 70 - terrible, terrible road loss

@Louisville 74, Miami 58
@Boston College 60, Virginia 53 - what?
Virginia Tech 67, @Syracuse 63

Kentucky 78, @Georgia 69
Florida 81, @South Carolina 68
Tennessee 69, @Missouri 59 - well, all the better road teams are winning road games.  That's not nothing
@Texas A&M 57, Ole Miss 47

Big East:
Villanova 64, @Creighton 59
Providence 81, @Marquette 80 (OT) - bad home loss

Houston 78, @Temple 74

@Northern Iowa 68, Indiana St 60
@Air Force 79, Utah St 60 - USU in real trouble now.  The conference cannot sustain an at-large profile with several holes

1/6 recap

West Virginia 55, @Oklahoma St 41

Do you want me to recap the Fun Belt as well?  Because that's all there is on this night.  Pass.

1/5 recap

@Michigan St 87, Michigan 69
@Minnesota 77, Northwestern 68
@Illinois 63, Purdue 37

Big East:
@Xavier 75, St John's 67

Oregon St 76, @Colorado 68 - this is a really dumb loss
@Washington 72, USC 40

Dayton 80, @St Joe's 67
Richmond 69, @Rhode Island 61
VCU 72, @George Mason 59 - weird seeing all road teams win, but on the other hand, it's all the relevant teams that are winning.  Good sign for the league to get 3-4 bids
@Duquesne 71, Davidson 64
LaSalle 66, @Fordham 60
@St Louis 83, UMass 80 (OT)

Sunday, January 5, 2020

1/4 recap

Duke 95, @Miami 62
Florida St 78, @Louisville 65 - this should hold up as a signature road win that's worth a full seed line
@Virginia 65, Virginia Tech 39 - go to hell Virginia
Wake Forest 69, @Pitt 65
@Clemson 81, NC State 70
Notre Dame 88, @Syracuse 87
Georgia Tech 96, @North Carolina 83 - ok, NOW I believe UNC is in trouble

Auburn 80, @Mississippi St 68
@Kentucky 71, Missouri 59
LSU 78, @Tennessee 64 - my takeaway is that the middle of the SEC standings might be a muddled mess
@Florida 104, Alabama 98 (2OT)
@Arkansas 69, Texas A&M 59

Big 12:
@Kansas 60, West Virginia 53
@Baylor 59, Texas 44
@Texas Tech 85, Oklahoma St 50
@Oklahoma 66, Kansas St 61
@TCU 81, Iowa St 79 (OT)

Oregon 69, @Utah 64 - a road split for Oregon is solid, really
@Arizona 75, Arizona St 47
@Washington St 79, UCLA 71 (OT)

Big East:
@Marquette 71, Villanova 60
@Butler 71, Creighton 57
Providence 66, @DePaul 65 - there's the DePaul we know and love.  Provi is the bad team in the league.  Can't lose this game

@Maryland 75, Indiana 59
@Penn St 89, Iowa 86 - I still don't trust PSU

@Tulane 76, Cincinnati 71

@Gonzaga 75, Pepperdine 70
@BYU 63, Loyola Marymount 38
@Pacific 107, St Mary's 99 (4OT) - oh no there's the first slip.  They can afford a couple, and Pacific looks to be good, so not a big deal yet

San Diego St 77, @Utah St 68 - rough for USU to have this game happen already.  2nd best chance at a signature win the rest of the way, and it goes by the boards in early January

@Furman 65, East Tennessee St 56 - two good teams who are looking at the 12 line if they win the SoCon.  Elsewhere in the SoCon, UNCG lost at Wofford

Georgia 65, @Memphis 62 - not a good look for Memphis.  Is Georgia good?
@Wichita St 74, Ole Miss 54
SMU 92, @Vanderbilt 81 (OT)

1/3 recap

Wisconsin 61, @Ohio St 57 - signature road wins are massive.  OSU's chances at the 1 line take a big hit, but there's time to recover in this loaded conference
@Houston 78, UCF 63
@Seton Hall 78, Georgetown 62
@Tulsa 70, Temple 44

Rutgers 79, @Nebraska 62 - because someone had to win
Kent St 79, @Bowling Green 61

1/2 recap

@Michigan St 76, Illinois 56
@Purdue 83, Minnesota 78 (OT)

@Colorado 74, Oregon 65 - this won't help Oregon get to the top line, but I otherwise wouldn't make too much of a deal about this loss
@Utah 81, Oregon St 69
UCLA 66, @Washington 64 - home losses are bubble wreckers in March
USC 65, @Washington St 56 - while any road win of any kind is significant
@Stanford 68, Cal 52

Gonzaga 85, @Portland 72
St Mary's 69, @San Francisco 58 - that's one of the better road wins available in the league, already in the pocket

Dayton 84, @LaSalle 58
@Duquesne 73, St Louis 59 - I guess we have to pay attention to Duquense?  Not making a big deal of them yet
@Richmond 84, St Joe's 52
@VCU 64, Fordham 46

mid-major watch:
Liberty wins A-Sun game #1, on the road.....Vermont with a road win at Dartmouth....Rhode Island played a road game at Brown, and lost...Belmont lost at home to SIU-E, eww.....

Thursday, January 2, 2020

1/1 recap

Big East:
@Creighton 82, Marquette 75

@San Diego St 61, Fresno St 52
@UNLV 70, Utah St 53 - that is a seriously bad loss and puts USU behind the 8-ball for an at-large bid early

@Wichita St 75, East Carolina 69
@SMU 82, South Florida 64
@Cincinnati 67, UConn 51

12/31 recap

@Duke 88, Boston College 49
@Florida St 70, Georgia Tech 58
Miami 73, @Clemson 68 (OT)

Big East:
Butler 60, @St John's 58 - road wins like this will start to stand out...and missed quality win chances at home will really, really stand out
@Providence 76, Georgetown 60

Temple 62, @UCF 58 - this should hold up as a decent road win

@Illinois St 76, Northern Iowa 70 - that's a dumb loss for an at-large contender
@Wisconsin 65, Rider 37 - isn't Rider the best MAAC team?  Good God what happened to that conference
Florida A&M 70, @Iowa St 68 - dumb loss of the century right here

12/30 recap

Big East:
@Villanova 68, Xavier 62
Seton Hall 74, @DePaul 66 - ok, that's better from DePaul

Stetson 63, @South Carolina 56 - this is a tremendously bad loss
@North Carolina 70, Yale 67 - Yale is good, so don't worry about the margin of victory here
Harvard 84, @San Francisco 81 (OT) - and there's Harvard with a quality road win
@TCU 87, George Mason 53 - GMU was 11-1.  This was a litmus test.  We know where they stand now
@Vanderbilt 76, Davidson 71
@Texas A&M 58, Texas Southern 55 - probably worth noting TSU is the SWAC leader again
@Buffalo 84, St Bonaventure 79