Sunday, January 19, 2020

Bubble watch: B1G

Let's bang out some bubble watches today.  Start with the conference lording over the NET rankings.

All numbers through  May be out of date by a day or so, don't take them as gospel.


Michigan St (14-4) (6-1) NET 8 SoS 28
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 4-4 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Seton Hall, and tons of home holds (Wisky, Michigan, Rutgers, et al)
Bad losses:  does N-Va Tech count?

No significant holes in the resume.

Maryland (14-4) (4-3) NET 15 SoS 8
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 27, 2-4 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Ohio St, N-Marquette
Bad losses:  all 4 losses are Q1-A

Still don't actually have a true road win on the resume.  0-3 in conference.  Will need to be fixed at some point, but there's time again.


Ohio St (12-6) (2-5) NET 19 SoS 39
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 82, 2-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Villanova, N-Kentucky
Bad losses:  none individually, 4 conference road losses add up though

They should be fine long term, but they're already 0-4 on the road in the B1G.  Gotta get a couple, otherwise their seed will tank.

Rutgers (12-4) (4-2) NET 18 SoS 18
Vital signs:  1-4 R/N, non-con SoS 34, 2-3 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Seton Hall, Wisky
Bad losses:  N-Bonaventure, @Pitt?

It's kind of jarring to see such strong computer numbers behind Rutgers.  They have a couple weird losses, and just one 1 road win, and only 4 Q1-2 wins.  So there's time for this to go sideways.

Michigan (11-6) (2-4) NET 29 SoS 48
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 2-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Gonzaga, Iowa, Creighton
Bad losses:  none individually, but 5 road losses sting

All 3 of those road/neutral wins were in Atlantis.  And 2 of them (Iowa St, UNC) have evaporated into little more than resume fodder.  SoS has disappointed, and they either need to start picking off road games or lean really hard on the Gonzaga win.

Iowa (13-5) (4-3) NET 26 SoS 97
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 170, 4-3 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, N-TTU, Michigan?
Bad losses:  @Nebraska

3 road wins in the top 2 quads already, which is not a trivial number.  Also not trivial:  the non-con SoS, which is about the only thing keeping me from going all-in on this resume.  But I think they'll be fine.

Wisconsin (11-7) (4-3) NET 22 SoS 3
Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 5-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, @OSU, @PSU
Bad losses:  N-New Mexico isn't that terrible, but still

Strong SoS numbers will mask a problem with the sheer number of losses.  Also 5 Q1 wins as well.  This resume can support the at-large candidacy of a 18-14 overall record if it comes to it.

Penn St (13-5) (3-4) NET 36 SoS 127
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 315, 4-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, Ohio St, N-Iowa
Bad losses:  N-Ole Miss

Shouldn't take long to find the hole in this resume.  There is a road win at Georgetown hidden in this resume, but it'll take some work in the conference to mask the rest of the non-con. 

Purdue (10-8) (3-4) NET 35 SoS 31
Vital signs:  2-7 R/N, non-con SoS 24, 2-6 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Michigan St, N-VCU, Minnesota
Bad losses:  @Nebraska

They've played a staggering 7 games already inside Q1-A - and lost 6 of them.  They might be the king of the scenario where if you get enough chances, you'll win just enough to get in the tournament.  Another case like Wisconsin where a 18-14 record can be enough - but they need a couple more signature wins first.

Minnesota (10-7) (4-3) NET 41 SoS 27
Vital signs:  1-6 R/N, non-con SoS 52, 2-4 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  OSU, Michigan, Penn St
Bad losses:  @Utah is the worst

Their only win away from home is Oklahoma State on a neutral.  Needless to say, this has gotta change, and they're going to have to pick off a couple big games to eventually get in.  Chances abound, though.  This is the resume that feels most vulnerable in the conference right now.

Indiana (14-4) (4-3) NET 49 SoS 53
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 42, 2-3 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  FSU, Ohio St, and that's about it
Bad losses:  perhaps Arkansas

It's kind of a naked profile, even with the SoS numbers.  The good news is the FSU win should hold up as a signature win.  And there's time to add depth to the profile.  They need a quantity of good wins right now.

Illinois (12-5) (5-2) NET 40 SoS 85
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 241, 3-3 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Wisky, Rutgers, Michigan
Bad losses:  Miami

Kind of a junior version of the Penn St resume, with the SoS being a problem.  Plenty of time to add the quality wins needed to make this an at-large profile though.  More vulnerable than it would appear.


ILLSC said...

Agree on illinois. Certainly would get in now but they are two losses to anyone from being a 4 seed in the nit. Shaky resume but certainly good enough, for now. Also dont forsee minny lasting.

ILLSC said...

Also agree on wisconsin 18-14 will be enough. But I kinda hate that