Sunday, January 19, 2020

Bubble watch: Pac-12

Oregon (15-4) (4-2) NET 16 SoS 16
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 25, 5-2 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Arizona, N-Seton Hall, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-UNC, @Wazzu?

A couple bad losses away from a bigtime resume.

Arizona (13-5) (3-2) NET 11 SoS 11
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 1-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Colorado and Illinois at home?
Bad losses:  N-St John's probably

Still no true road win on the resume.  Chances will come though.  No high end win, which is surprising given the computer numbers.  This resume could have a large variance.

Stanford (15-3) (4-1) NET 14 SoS 100
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 162, 0-3 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Washington and N-Oklahoma count?
Bad losses:  none

Lost all 3 of their tough games...undefeated in games they should have won.  Don't get ahead of yourselves in thinking this team should be seeded highly yet.

Colorado (14-4) (3-2) NET 21 SoS 27
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 75, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, Oregon
Bad losses:  Oregon St

They picked up 4 Q1/Q2 wins in the non-con, giving them a working buffer that other Pac-12 teams don't have.  So they're a step ahead of, say, Stanford and Arizona on that front.

USC (15-3) (4-1) NET 46 SoS 77
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 110, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Stanford, N-LSU, @TCU?
Bad losses:  Temple

4 true road wins is a nice start to the resume, but the SoS is hurt by some back-end cupcakes.  3 Q1 wins is another nice resume feature.

Washington (12-7) (2-4) NET 47 SoS 5
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 1-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Baylor, USC?
Bad losses:  @Cal, UCLA

A strong SoS metric and a true signature win saves an otherwise marginal profile.  That Baylor win is everything.  They desperately need to add depth to this resume.

Arizona St (11-7) (2-3) NET 61 SoS 43
Oregon St (12-6) (2-4) NET 67 SoS 186
Utah (10-7) (1-4) NET 79 SoS 56

Can't quite talk myself into these resumes yet.  Utah beat Kentucky and BYU, but lost a few toss-up games and is behind the chains.  Oregon St has the wins, but also has hideous SoS numbers.  ASU is missing any win of legitimate substance.

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