Sunday, January 19, 2020

Bubble watch: ACC

This conference is secretly a tire fire.


Duke (15-3) (5-2) NET 6 SoS 14
Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 8, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kansas, @MSU, @VT
Bad losses:  SFA, @Clemson?

There's enough in the resume to make a claim for the 1 line if they win the ACC.

Louisville (15-3) (6-1) NET 10 SoS 8
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 80, 4-3 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Duke, Michigan
Bad losses:  all 3 losses are Q1-A

There's a distinct lack of depth in their quality win list, and the ACC isn't exactly teeming with opportunities.  This is just me tempering everyone's expectations that a 1 seed might be a foregone conclusion.

Florida St (16-2) (6-1) NET 13 SoS 29
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 51, 3-2 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Louisville, @Florida, N-Purdue
Bad losses:  @Pitt?

All resume qualities are in good shape at the moment.


Virginia Tech (13-5) (4-3) NET 44 SoS 160
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 331, 3-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Michigan St, and some middling wins
Bad losses:  Syracuse?

Hilarously, they have not played a single Q3 game, and have played 8 Q4 games.  A pretty glaring resume hole, and they're going to need to win a lot of league games to mask it.

Virginia (12-5) (4-3) NET 60 SoS 70
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 145, 1-2 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Syracuse?  Va Tech?
Bad losses:  @BC, South Carolina

No true signature wins (road win at #69 is the best)?  Marginal SoS?  2 Q3 losses?  This situation doesn't seem promising.

North Carolina St (13-5) (4-3) NET 48 SoS 73
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 78, 2-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Wisky, @UNCG?
Bad losses:  Ga Tech

Haven't really played any notable conference games yet, so I don't have a good read on their chances yet.

Syracuse (11-7) (4-3) NET 69 SoS 68
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 174, 2-3 vs. Q1, 1-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @VT, @UVa
Bad losses:  N-OklaSt?  Notre Dame?

Lost too many tossup games to date.  They've got more coming, though.

Pittsburgh (12-6) (3-4) NET 73 SoS 65
Clemson (9-8) (3-4) NET 75 SoS 25
Notre Dame (11-6) (2-4) NET 74 SoS 213

Piling these teams together.  Can't imagine these profiles leading to an at-large bid, but there's juuuuust enough done so far by these teams that makes me think it's possible.  But unlikely.

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