Sunday, March 14, 2021

BRACKET FINAL

First and last bracket of the year.

REGION 1  33

1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Mt St Mary's/Norfolk St
8) Florida vs. 9) North Carolina

4) Florida St vs. 13) Colgate
5) Villanova vs. 12) Winthrop

3) Texas vs. 14) Grand Canyon
6) LSU vs. 11) VCU

2) Iowa vs. 15) Drexel
7) BYU vs. 10) UConn


REGION 2  34

1) Michigan vs. 16) Oral Roberts
8) Clemson vs. 9) St Bonaventure

4) West Virginia vs. 13) UC Santa Barbara
5) Missouri vs. 12) Georgetown

3) Kansas vs. 14) Abilene Christian
6) Colorado vs. 11) Utah St/Syracuse

2) Alabama vs. 15) Iona
7) Oregon vs. 10) Michigan St

REGION 3  36

1) Illinois vs. 16) Appalachian St
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Georgia Tech

4) Virginia vs. 13) UNC Greensboro
5) Creighton vs. 12) Oregon St

3) Oklahoma St vs. 14) Morehead St
6) USC vs. 11) Louisville

2) Houston vs. 15) Eastern Washington
7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Virginia Tech

REGION 4  33

1) Baylor vs. 16) Hartford/Texas Southern
8) Loyola vs. 9) Rutgers

4) Purdue vs. 13) Ohio
5) Tennessee vs. 12) North Texas

3) Arkansas vs. 14) Liberty
6) Texas Tech vs. 11) UCLA/Wichita St

2) Ohio St vs. 15) Cleveland St
7) San Diego St vs. 10) Maryland

SEED LIST FINAL

I've made one course correction in favor of the ACC schools - I think I've been low-rating them based on the fact several conference wins were teetering on the Q1/Q2 cutoff - I've given modest bumps to everyone to account for this.

Where I'm gonna be wrong:
- The 2 line.  Houston over Texas.  Playing the hunch the committee just takes the higher ranked team instead of more loaded resume
- The 4-6 lines.  Biggest jumble of the entire grid to me.  I think both Nova and Tennessee have excellent arguments for the 4 line.  Just believe the ACC schools, with my correction, go there.
- The bubble.  Starting to hate Wichita's resume the more I look at it, but as far as I can see, their weaknesses aren't weak enough to lose out to Drake and the MWC schools.  That Houston win is everything right now.
- The mid-major champs.  I don't feel confident at all about Loyola, SDSU, and Bonaventure's seed.


The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Ohio St, Iowa, Houston
The 3 line:  Texas, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Kansas
The 4 line:  West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida St
The 5 line:  Villanova, Tennessee, Creighton, Missouri
The 6 line:  Colorado, Texas Tech, USC, LSU
The 7 line:  Oregon, San Diego St, BYU, Wisconsin
The 8 line:  Florida, Loyola, Oklahoma, Clemson
The 9 line:  Georgia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, North Carolina
The 10 line:  UConn, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Michigan St
The 11 line:  VCU, Louisville, UCLA, Utah St, Syracuse, Wichita St
The 12 line:  Georgetown, Oregon St, North Texas, Winthrop
The 13 line:  Colgate, UNC Greensboro, Ohio, UC Santa Barbara
The 14 line:  Abilene Christian, Liberty, Morehead St, Grand Canyon
The 15 line:  Eastern Washington, Drexel, Cleveland St, Iona
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Appalachian St, Hartford, Mt St Mary's, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Last 4 in:
UCLA
Utah St
Syracuse
Wichita St

Last 4 out:
Drake
Colorado St
Ole Miss
Boise St

SEED LIST 3/14 am

I'm already annoyed at myself for putting in Syracuse.  Here's a hunch that the committee devalues the road records of everyone, which is a dagger to Drake's resume.

I'm really, really not sold on Louisville or UCLA making this tournament, but I'm guessing the squeeze happens to the Mountain West schools instead.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Ohio St, Iowa, Houston
The 3 line:  Texas, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Kansas
The 4 line:  West Virginia, Purdue, Villanova, Virginia
The 5 line:  Tennessee, Florida St, Creighton, Colorado
The 6 line:  Missouri, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, USC
The 7 line:  LSU, Oregon, San Diego St, BYU
The 8 line:  Florida, Loyola, Oklahoma, Clemson
The 9 line:  Georgia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn
The 10 line:  Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, VCU
The 11 line:  Michigan St, Louisville, Wichita St, UCLA, Utah St, Syracuse
The 12 line:  Georgetown, Oregon St, North Texas, Winthrop
The 13 line:  Colgate, UNC Greensboro, Ohio, UC Santa Barbara
The 14 line:  Abilene Christian, Liberty, Morehead St, Grand Canyon
The 15 line:  Eastern Washington, Drexel, Cleveland St, Iona
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Appalachian St, Hartford, Mt St Mary's, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
UCLA
Utah St
Syracuse

Last 4 out:
Drake
Colorado St
Ole Miss
Boise St

Next 4 out:
Duke
St Louis
Xavier
Western Kentucky

Saturday, March 13, 2021

SEED LIST 3/13 am

It doesn't feel like the MWC should get 4 teams in, but right now, their resumes are just simply better than the resumes of the last 4 out.  I don't think I can justify any flips yet.  As I've said earlier, expect continuous seed scrubbing throughout the next 24 hours.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line:  Oklahoma St, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas
The 4 line:  Villanova, Purdue, Texas, Virginia
The 5 line:  Florida St, Tennessee, Missouri, Colorado
The 6 line:  USC, Creighton, Texas Tech, Florida
The 7 line:  Oregon, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St
The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma
The 9 line:  St Bonaventure, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, UConn
The 10 line:  Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, VCU
The 11 line:  Michigan St, Wichita St, Drake, UCLA
The 12 line:  Utah St, Colorado St, Louisville, Boise St, Western Kentucky, Buffalo
The 13 line:  UNCG, Winthrop, Liberty, UCSB
The 14 line:  Colgate, Eastern Washington, Morehead St, Grand Canyon
The 15 line:  Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford, Iona
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Last 4 in:
Utah St
Colorado St
Louisville
Boise St

Last 4 out:
Ole Miss
St Louis
Xavier
Syracuse

Thursday, March 11, 2021

SEED LIST 3/12

Good Lord this bubble is bad.

I continue to scrub.  SEC teams are better than I thought.  Ole Miss is not dead, just because everyone else is dying.  I want to drop Boise out, but I can't find a team to replace them yet.  Are we seriously considering Syracuse here?

UCLA and Louisville would be dead in so many other years.

I'll continue to scrub.  I need to take a closer look at the bottom 4 lines, admittedly.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line:  Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma St
The 4 line:  Villanova, Purdue, Texas, Virginia
The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Missouri, Tennessee
The 6 line:  Colorado, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech
The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St
The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma
The 9 line:  St Bonaventure, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, UConn
The 10 line:  Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, VCU
The 11 line:  Michigan St, Colorado St, Wichita St, Drake
The 12 line:  UCLA, Louisville, Boise St, Utah St, Western Kentucky, Toledo
The 13 line:  UNCG, Winthrop, Liberty, UCSB
The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Morehead St, Grand Canyon
The 15 line:  Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford, St Peter's
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, Prairie View A&M, Coppin St

Last 4 in:
UCLA
Louisville
Boise St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
St Louis
Ole Miss
Xavier
Syracuse

Next 4 out:
Seton Hall
St John's
Memphis
Duke

SEED LIST 3/11

 A modest amount of scrubbing today.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas
The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia
The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri
The 6 line:  Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech
The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St
The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma
The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn
The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU
The 11 line:  Michigan St, North Carolina, Colorado St, Boise St
The 12 line:  Wichita St, Louisville, Drake, Utah St, UNCG, Toledo
The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Liberty
The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Morehead St, Grand Canyon
The 15 line:  Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford, St Peter's
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Louisville
Drake
Utah St

Last 4 out:
St Louis
Ole Miss
Xavier
Syracuse

Next 4 out:
St John's
Seton Hall
Memphis
Duke

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

SEED LIST 3/10

Well, I didn't even ask for it, but we're live on Bracket Matrix.  We're in it now, guys.

A reminder to new visitors:  I have been inactive this season due to health-related reasons and only started projections yesterday.  Haven't had a chance to follow the season, so my analysis is strictly resume-based.  I am operating on less knowledge.

Because of this, it's possible I'm missed some things in my first couple pass-throughs.  But we're continuing on as some sort of experiment.  See, I want to know how projections compare when the only information you have is the nitty gritty sheets.


Observations that I had while scrubbing yesterday:

- The Big 12 is an awkward conference to evaluate as a whole.  Tons of Q1 games in conference play were available, and their numbers seem to dwarf the numbers of all the teams around them.  I'm having a tough time guessing what the committee will do, comparing mid-pick Big 12 teams with ACC and Pac-12 champions, for example.
- If I were to guess where I'm wrong, it's the 5-6-7 lines.  Not much separating teams in my view.
- I have no good idea what's going to happen to mid-majors.  We just don't have the non-con data like we had in years past.  I just don't have a good sense on SDSU, Loyola, and Bonaventure yet.
- I'm not in love with 3 MWC teams inside the bubble right at the end, but I'm having trouble filling out the field.  Many of the teams I had right on the outside yesterday...sheesh there's some flawed resumes.  I did move up Xavier, but they're still out.  Road/neutral records still matter, I think.  So for today at least, Utah St gets the nod.
- A good example of scrubbing:  I decided to dock Clemson for having just 2 true road wins this year, then had to double take as I saw everyone else project them much higher than I did.  Naturally, those 2 signature wins they have were neutral site wins, not home wins.  I've adjusted them accordingly.
- I can tell you Houston is a 2 seed right now, but if anyone other than Baylor wins the Big 12 tourney, they're headed to the 2 line in their place.


The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas
The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia
The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri
The 6 line:  Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech
The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Clemson
The 8 line:  San Diego St, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma, 
The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn
The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU
The 11 line:  Louisville, Michigan St, North Carolina, Colorado St
The 12 line:  Wichita St, Boise St, Drake, Utah St, UNCG, Toledo
The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Liberty
The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Siena, Morehead St
The 15 line:  Grand Canyon, Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Boise St
Drake
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Xavier
Ole Miss
St Louis
St John's

Next 4 out:
Syracuse
Seton Hall
Memphis
SMU