Monday, October 5, 2015

Preseason S-CURVE

The 1 line:  North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line:  Arizona, Duke, Wichita St, Villanova
The 3 line:  Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Michigan St
The 4 line:  Iowa St, Virginia, Wisconsin, Baylor
The 5 line:  Louisville, Georgetown, San Diego St, Purdue
The 6 line:  California, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
The 7 line:  Butler, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah
The 8 line:  UConn, Dayton, Florida, Tulsa
The 9 line:  Florida St, Texas A&M, Boise St, Northern Iowa
The 10 line:  Buffalo, LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati
The 11 line:  Oregon St, Davidson, Texas, Ohio St
The 12 line:  North Carolina St, Marquette, UCLA, Central Michigan, Old Dominion, Valparaiso
The 13 line:  Iona, Belmont, Harvard, Montana
The 14 line:  Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line:  Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line:  New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Ohio St

Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Central Michigan

Last 4 out:
Illinois St
West Virginia

Next 4 out:

Break it down! (seeds in parens):
Big 10 7 (1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11)
ACC 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12)
Pac-12 6 (2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12)
Big 12 5 (1, 3, 4, 4, 11)
Big East 5 (2, 5, 6, 7, 12)
SEC 5 (1, 7, 8, 9, 10)
AAC 3 (8, 8, 10)
A-10 3 (6, 8, 11)
MVC 2 (2, 9)
Mountain West 2 (5, 9)
MAC 2 (10, 12)

1) I expect the Big 12 to be more top-heavy.  It's certainly possible teams outside the big 4 this year (KU/ISU/OU/BU) get pulled up by osmosis, but for now I predict a 4-team breakaway and only enough wins for one other team (Texas for now) to get through.  I don't think you'll see 6 or 7.
2) Pretty clear who the top 2 conferences are this year.  B1G and ACC with 7 apiece, and I could easily see 8 for both.
3) I'm struggling to find Pac-12 teams that I think can really be high up.  They'll get their fair share in, but they may not be highly ranked.  Same situation in the SEC, but that's not new.  Actually, I'm willing to bet it's more likely the SEC has a second high seed than the Pac-12.
4) The AAC is in all sorts of trouble, especially if SMU dominates the conference like I think they could.
5) If you do not know, it's tradition here to project an at-large bid for the MAC.

Preseason BRACKET

1) North Carolina vs. 16) Texas Southern/Lehigh
8) Florida vs. 9) Northern Iowa
4) Baylor vs. 13) Montana
5) Purdue vs. 12) North Carolina St/Marquette
@Des Moines
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Davidson
2) Villanova vs. 15) Stony Brook
7) Utah vs. 10) Cincinnati

@Oklahoma City
1) Kansas vs. 16) New Mexico St
8) Tulsa vs. 9) Boise St
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Harvard
5) Louisville vs. 12) Old Dominion
3) Gonzaga vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Rhode Island vs. 11) Oregon St
2) Arizona vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Michigan vs. 10) Buffalo

@St Louis
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Robert Morris
8) Dayton vs. 9) Florida St
4) Virginia vs. 13) Iona
5) Georgetown vs. 12) UCLA/Central Michigan
@Des Moines
3) Indiana vs. 14) North Florida
6) Xavier vs. 11) Texas
@St Louis
2) Wichita St vs. 15) Louisiana-Lafayette
7) Butler vs. 10) LSU

1) Maryland vs. 16) North Carolina Central/High Point
8) UConn vs. 9) Texas A&M
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Belmont
5) San Diego St vs. 12) Valparaiso
@Oklahoma City
3) Oklahoma vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) California vs. 11) Ohio St
2) Duke vs. 15) Wofford
7) Vanderbilt vs. 10) Oregon

Here's some odd things that showed up when I bracketed this:
1) Among the top 16 seeds, I have 3 ACC teams, 4 B1G teams, and 4 Big 12 teams.  This eventually led to the odd situation of not being able to separate the top 4 Big 12 teams into 4 separate regionals.  Well, I could, but I'd have to send several teams way away from their geographic preference.  Presented with this puzzle, I think the committee would put a 3 seed and 4 seed from the same conference together.
2) Rhode Island, going cross-country to play Oregon St in Spokane, then Gonzaga if they survive.  This is because they were the last 6 seed on my S-Curve.  If they were the first 7 seed, they'd play in Brooklyn.  I wonder if URI would gladly give up a seed in this scenario.
3) Oklahoma has a golden chance to play early in OKC, but they gotta beat out their Big 12 bretheren to do it.
4) Right now, I have a play-in game winner going to Spokane.  Here's the issue:  I only have 1 of 4 sites hosting a 12 seed being a Friday/Sunday site, and that's Spokane.  Same for the 13 line.  On the 11 line, 2 of 4 sites is a Friday/Sunday sites, but that's Spokane and OKC.  With UCLA in my play-in game, they need to be Friday/Sunday to allow them to travel...but Cal blocks them from OKC.  All and all, it's a mess, and I gave up since it's just the preseason, but early returns are that the sites closest to Dayton (St Louis and Des Moines and Brooklyn) won't be in position to actually host those winners.