Thursday, November 30, 2017

11/27 recap

We're clear of holiday tournament crap!

@Virginia 49, Wisconsin 37 - I think we accidentally created a time rift by putting these two teams together, and actually played this game in the year 1957 before traveling back to present day

@Syracuse 72, Maryland 70 - my rule of thumb in these games is that home wins are nice, but don't move the needle greatly, while road wins are golden.  Road losses aren't too damaging as long as you don't stack up a bunch on top of each other.  So, this is business as usual for both

South Carolina 78, @FIU 61 - road wins are never trivial

Not a lot of other notable results....Marquette over EIU in a near-disaster in OT....Oakland wins a roadie at Oral Bob.  Belmont loses at home to Lipscomb, so they may be merely of ordinary strength this year.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

11/26 recap

non-tourney crap:
Texas A&M 75, @USC 59 - and there's a signature road win, and even another disaster for the Pac-12

Nike money grab - Motion bracket
Duke 87, Florida 84
Gonzaga 76, Texas 71 (OT) - more important for Gonzaga than you think
Portland St 87, Stanford 78 - uh oh
Butler 67, Ohio St 66 (OT) - we'll need to see the bubble in February to know how important this one is.  In fact, I think we can apply this statement to all the Nike money grab games.  The values of these wins will change, so don't get caught up in definitive analysis of these results yet

Nike money grab - Victory bracket
Michigan St 63, North Carolina 45
Arkansas 102, UConn 67
Oklahoma 90, Oregon 80
DePaul 82, Portland 69

Wooden Legacy:
Washington St 93, San Diego St 86 - WSU is good!  Who knew!  Good Lord, the Pac-12 is going to be a giant mess this year
Georgia 83, St Mary's 81 (OT) - 2 losses at the Wooden for St Mary's, and legit bubble trouble
St Joseph's 74, Sacramento St 69
CS Fullerton 70, Harvard 61

West Virginia 83, Missouri 79
St John's 46, UCF 43
Nebraska 85, Long Beach St 80
Oregon St 65, Marist 46

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

11/25 recap

Another boring Saturday.  These programs need to just stop ignoring one day of the week, screw college football.

Barclays Center Classic:
Minnesota 89, Alabama 84
BYU 68, UMass 66

Great Alaska:
Sam Houston St 73, Santa Clara 59
Charleston 55, Alaska Anchorage 46
Central Michigan 75, CS Bakersfield 72

Savannah Inv'l:
Loyola(Chi) 75, Kent St 60
Valparaiso 79, UNC Wilmington 70

Emerald Coast Classic:
Maryland 80, New Mexico 65
TCU 89, St Bonaventure 79 - TCU gets the 2 neutral site wins here.  Not terrible

Assorted scores:
UT-Arlington 95, @Niagara 90 - road wins are never trivial
@Providence 86, Boston College 66
Penn 101, @Monmouth 96 (4OT)
@Dayton 73, Akron 60
@Appalachian St 78, Davidson 62 - oof
Georgetown 82, @Richmond 76
Vermont 79, @Yale 73 - road wins are never trivial

Sunday, November 26, 2017

11/24 recap

Battle 4 Atlantis:
Purdue 89, Arizona 64 - your last place game in Atlantis!  Purdue salvages something, but maybe not if this is the Arizona we get this year.  This could actually be big trouble for a conference already light on impact teams
Western Kentucky 63, SMU 61 - yikes for SMU; losses to WKU and UNI, but who the hell knows how their win over Zona will translate in March
Tennessee 67, NC State 58 - Tennessee picks up a decent win to go along with their signature win (Purdue)
Villanova 64, Northern Iowa 50

Contrived Nike tournament #1:
Florida 111, Gonzaga 105 (2OT) - consensus seems to be both teams are probably pretty good, and this won't make or break either resume
Duke 85, Texas 78 (OT) - Duke/Fla coming up
Butler 71, Portland St 69
Ohio St 79, Stanford 71

Contrived Nike tournament #2:
Michigan St 77, UConn 57
North Carolina 87, Arkansas 68 - UNC/MSU do their jobs wading their way to the finals
Oklahoma 93, Portland 71
Oregon 89, DePaul 79 (OT)

Barclays Center Classic:
Minnesota 69, UMass 51
Alabama 71, BYU 59

Las Vegas Inv'l:
Arizona St 102, Xavier 86 - okay, ASU:  officially not bad!
Kansas St 67, George Washington 59

Seton Hall 72, Vanderbilt 59
Virginia 70, Rhode Island 55 - UVa gets the 2 neutral site wins here

Wooden Legacy:
Washington St 84, St Mary's 79 - is WSU secretly not bad as well?  I'm confused, I thought the middle of the Pac-12 was awful.  Anyways, not the greatest look in the world for St Mary's given the WCC isn't a powerhouse filled with quality win chances to rebound with
Harvard 77, St Joseph's 71
San Diego St 75, Georgia 68 - every win matters for MWC teams
CS-Fullerton 68, Sacramento St 63

Advocare Inv'l:
West Virginia 83, UCF 45
Missouri 90, St John's 82 - so are we going to go full Ewing Theory on this Missou team?  UM/WVU in the finals here, hmm
Long Beach St 74, Oregon St 69 - well at least we know OSU is still awful for the Pac-12
Nebraska 84, Marist 59

Savannah Inv'l:
Loyola(Chi) 102, UNC-Wilmington 78 - not the greatest look for the Colonial
Valparaiso 77, Kent St 67

Emerald Coast Classic:
TCU 69, New Mexico 68
St Bonaventure 63, Maryland 61 - swing game, A-10 finally gets one of them in their ledger.  Actually both games here felt like swing games, so no disaster for UNM/Maryland...yet

Central Michigan 56, Cal Poly 53
CS-Bakersfield 64, Idaho 62

one non-tourney game worth mentioning:
Nevada 67, @Hawaii 54 - if you haven't noticed, that's 3 true road wins, plus home wins over Idaho (Big Sky fav) and URI and Davidson.  No single result is tremendous but the sum of the parts is really starting to look good

11/23 recap

PK 80 Motion, or as I like to call it, "Nike starts their own holiday tournament, with blackjack and hookers", version 1:
Duke 99, Portland St 81
Florida 108, Stanford 87
Gonzaga 86, Ohio St 59
Texas 61, Butler 48 - classic swing game.  Texas gets access to quality win chances, Butler is buried on the wrong side of the bracket

PK 80 Victory, , or as I like to call it, "Nike starts their own holiday tournament, with blackjack and hookers", version 2:
Michigan St 73, DePaul 51
North Carolina 102, Portland 78
Arkansas 92, Oklahoma 83 - classic swing game.  Arky gets access to quality win chances, Oklahoma is buried on the wrong side of the bracket
UConn 71, Oregon 63 - ok, the Pac-12 should maybe start worrying about things

Battle 4 Atlantis
SMU 66, Arizona 60 - ok, now it's time to worry about Arizona.  One flameout is fine, two is bad.  Remember the Pac-12 is down, and Arizona is bleeding away quality win chances
Western Kentucky 77, Purdue 73 - and what is Purdue doing losing this game?  This tourney is now a disaster for them too, although PU has access to resume building chances in conference play.  Arizona/Purdue is a dumb 7th place game and someone's getting their resume destroyed and someone's gonna salvage theirs
Northern Iowa 64, NC State 60 - all of a sudden it's two quality wins for UNI and access to Villanova and a signature win.  This is one weird tournament
Villanova 85, Tennessee 76 - Nova's gotta be wondering what value they're getting out of this tournament.  And it's Atlantis!

Las Vegas Inv'l:
Xavier 83, George Washington 64 - sadly, a win with no nutritional value
Arizona St 92, Kansas St 90 - is ASU secretly not bad?

NIT Tip-Off:
Rhode Island 75, Seton Hall 74 - might be the signature win of the day.  Given how down the A-10 is, URI desperately needs a quality win of any kind on the ledger
Virginia 68, Vanderbilt 42 - bad, bad start to the year for Vandy, they're well off the bubble pace

Wooden Legacy:
St Mary's 89, Harvard 71
Washington St 75, St Joseph's 71
Georgia 64, CS-Fullerton 57
San Diego St 89, Sacramento St 52 - the favorites all hold here

Advocare Inv'l:
West Virginia 84, Marist 78
Missouri 95, Long Beach St 58
St John's 82, Oregon St 77
UCF 68, Nebraska 59 - quirky tournament with a few haves and a few have nots.  All the favorites avoided disaster, though

Great Alaska Shootout:
Charleston 59, Sam Houston St 49
Alaska-Anchorage 78, Santa Clara 73 (OT) - oof

Saturday, November 25, 2017

11/22 recap

@Providence 66, Belmont 65 - life is tough for Belmont.  This is a campus game for the 2K Classic, Belmont couldn't even get into the main draw of a tourney.  Then lose by a point to a legit tourney team, losing whatever small chance they had at bubble relevancy.  Such is life

Tourneys everywhere:

Battle 4 Atlantis:
NC State 90, Arizona 84 - well there's one upset
Tennessee 78, Purdue 75 (OT) - and there's another
Northern Iowa 61, SMU 58 - no worries for SMU, they get their quality win chance against Zona anyways.  UNI kind of gets snookered here, any chance at a legitimate at-large profile now all of a sudden requires a tourney win
Villanova 66, Western Kentucky 58 - a disaster for Nova.  The other 2 best teams lose, and are on the opposite side of the bracket.  Tennessee, UNI, and NC State are decent, but Nova loses all access to signature win chances.  Meanwhile Arizona and Purdue are still on a collision course and both have a chance to salvage a quality win out of this trip.  Life ain't fair

Notre Dame 67, Wichita St 66 - UND walks away with the signature win here, Wichita will need to find a signature win elsewhere to use to get a top-2 seed
Marquette 94, LSU 84 - not an awful tourney for Marquette either, they grab 2 decent wins out of it
Michigan 68, VCU 60 - not great for a VCU team that's looking at no help in A-10 conference play
Chaminade 96, California 72 - wait, what?  WHAT?!?!?!

Cayman Islands:
Cincinatti 78, Wyoming 53 - again, what a useless tourney for Cincy
Iowa 95, UAB 85
South Dakota St 95, Buffalo 80
Louisiana 82, Richmond 86 - not sure what to make of this tourney overall.  Lot of results that don't really help any resumes enough.  Iowa punted 2 games to mid-majors.  Louisiana finishes 3rd but Richmond is not very good and Iowa was their other win.  Ouches all around except Wyoming, I guess

Gulf Coast:
Northern Illinois 70, Manhattan 68
Missouri St 71, Florida Atlantic 60
Penn 68, UMKC 65
Towson 70, Georgia Southern 67 - Towson wins, a nice boon to the Colonial.  3 neutral site wins are always a net positive for a mid-major

Great Alaska Shootout:
Cal Poly 73, Charleston 68 - man, this tourney fell by the wayside.  Anyways, a catastrophic loss for Charleston, now on the wrong side of an already weak tourney.  Big blow to the CAA
Central Michigan 71, Sam Houston St 60
Idaho 69, Santa Clara 59
CS-Bakersfield 59, Alaska-Anchorage 39 - an eclectic group of mid-majors here.  Got a WAC favorite, MAC favorite, Southland favorite, and CAA favorite, and Big Sky favorite....not bad.  For now, a big strike to the CAA, a minor boon to the MAC and Big Sky

Fresno St 79, George Mason 73
Louisiana Tech 63, Evansville 61 - LaTech gets the 2 wins here

MGM Resorts:
Ole Miss 79, Rice 62
UNLV 85, Utah 58 - UNLV enters as favorites and gets the 2 wins here

Friday, November 24, 2017

11/21 recap

Signature wins:
@Alabama 77, UT Arlington 76 - yeah, I think this counts as one
@Middle Tennessee 85, FGCU 72 - okay, maybe we're stretching the definition here, but go ahead and find another non-tourney game to highlight today
@Nevada 81, Davidson 68 - meh


Wichita St 80, Marquette 66
Notre Dame 92, LSU 53 - this tournament went to script and WSU/UND is our inevitable endgame
VCU 83, Cal 69
Michigan 102, Chaminade 64

Cayman Islands:
Cincinnati 75, Richmond 48 - this tourney has turned into a waste of Cincy's time
South Dakota St 80, Iowa 72
Wyoming 70, Louisiana 61
Buffalo 96, UAB 91 (OT)

Progressive Legends Classic:
Texas A&M 98, Penn St 87 - two wins according to script for the favorite A&M here
Oklahoma St 73, Pittsburgh 67

HoF Classic:
UCLA 72, Wisconsin 70 - Wisky takes a pretty harmful 0-2 out of this.  You don't want to be the one leaving 0-2 in this kind of tourney setup
Baylor 65, Creighton 59

Gulf Coast Showcase:
Missouri St 69, Manhattan 65
Florida Atlantic 77, Northern Illinois 67
Georgia Southern 78, UMKC 75
Towson 79, Penn 71

Cancun Challenge:
Louisiana Tech 77, George Mason 64
Evansville 59, Fresno St 57

Thursday, November 23, 2017

11/20 recap

wins of note:
North Carolina 96, @Stanford 72 - UNC always seems to do this.  Tacks on a road game to the schedule en route to whatever tournament they're doing.  And road wins are never trivial
@Syracuse 74, Oakland 50 - Oakland was a trendy mid-major pick but they're not putting up scores/results that would follow
Rider 67, @George Washington 65 - just in case you weren't sold on the catastrophic start to the year for the A-10
@Missouri 67, Emporia St 62 - this combined with injury news likely means endgame for Missouri's relevance in this blog for this year

Tournaments everywhere:

Wichita St 92, California 82
Marquette 94, VCU 83 - one of the hidden swing games that make or break a resume.  Marquette moves to the side of the bracket with Wichita and Notre Dame.  VCU loses access to a signature win chance.  It's a disaster for the A-10, who is in real trouble so far in the non-con
Notre Dame 83, Chaminade 56
LSU 77, Michigan 75 - the same situation as the Marquette/VCU game.  LSU gets access to signature win chances, Michigan doesn't.  At least for Michigan, B1G play should compensate

Cayman Islands:
Cincinnati 73, Buffalo 67 - this tournament isn't the greatest for Cincy.  They get a tanking Richmond team next, and Louisiana/Wyoming is on the other half of the bracket.  3 neutral site wins are always positive, and none of the teams are a zero, but there's no elite opponent that they can grab a signature win from here
Louisiana 80, Iowa 71 - Louisiana might actually be the better team here, I think
Wyoming 77, South Dakota St 65
Richmond 63, UAB 50 - actually a really bad loss for UAB and CUSA, given Richmond's struggles

Progressive Legends Classic:
Texas A&M 72, Oklahoma St 55 - the type of swing game SEC teams need to continue winning to improve that RPI
Penn St 85, Pitt 54

Hall of Fame Classic:
Baylor 70, Wisconsin 65 - every Tier 1 win matters
Creighton 100, UCLA 89 - UCLA is in a bit of a weird spot, resume-wise, with suspensions.  Not sure how to value this win for Creighton

Gulf Coast:
UMKC 74, Manhattan 63
Georgia Southern 74, Missouri St 73
Penn 93, Northern Illinois 80
Towson 76, Florida Atlantic 52 - this is all a cute little tournament...Missouri St was probably the favorite here and needed 3 wins to hold serve relative to the bubble....and nope

MGM Resorts Main Event:
UNLV 95, Rice 68
Utah 83, Ole Miss 74 - the two favorites win

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

11/19 recap

Another really light day.  Don't worry, plenty of stuff to recap with the big tournaments coming in the next couple of days.

Signature win of the day:
USC 93, @Vanderbilt 89 (OT) - remember, road wins are solid gold with the new system in place.  This should be a solid Tier 1 win

wins of note:
St Mary's 79, @San Jose St 61 - a lesser opponent, but a road win nonetheless

Too many tournaments.  I don't have much to say about these, frankly

UTSA 90, James Madison 77
Bradley 70, Weber St 64
Coastal Carolina 89, Iona 84
Vermont 66, Northern Kentucky 64 - Vermont gets their 3 wins here and are set up for a big RPI year

Paradise Jam:
Liberty 84, Quinnipiac 72
Houston 78, Wake Forest 73
Drake 90, Drexel 88 (2OT)
Colorado 79, Mercer 70 - Colorado gets 3 wins that are pretty marginal, frankly

Ohio 96, Indiana St 94 (4OT)
Auburn 89, Hofstra 78
Temple 67, Clemson 60 - Temple walks out with the 3 neutral site wins here, a desperately needed win for the reeling A-10
Old Dominion 75, Dayton 67

HoF Tipoff:
Boston College 82, LaSalle 61
Texas Tech 85, Northwestern 59 - wait, what?

Jamaica Classic:
Florida St 90, Colorado St 73
Tulane 63, Fordham 55

Puerto Rico Tipoff:
Illinois St 84, Tulsa 68
Iowa St 75, Boise St 64 - this one stings for Boise.  The MWC is not rife with quality win chances, so every one of these by the boards hurts a lot
South Carolina 79, Western Michigan 66

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

11/18 recap

Real life is really starting to get into the way....we'll get caught up soon enough, don't worry.  Although maybe it's a nice thing to do it this way - get separation from the results, and look back and see what mattered with more clarity.

Road wins by mid-majors that are only of interest to me:  Middle Tennessee over Tennessee St, Charleston over Charlotte, Murray St over Wright St, Nevada over Pacific

@Toledo 87, Oakland 74 - one of the MAC favorites hold off the Horizon favorite
@Maryland 80, Bucknell 78 - Bucknell took the LBSU playbook this year, playing a brutal schedule and getting punished for it.  I don't advise that script for most teams.
UT-Arlington 89, @BYU 75 - a decent road win, and a bad sign for the WCC.  Gonzaga beats a MWC team (USU) if you consider that noteworthy


Bradley 71, UTSA 69
Weber St 73, James Madison 65
Vermont 80, Coastal Carolina 67
Northern Kentucky 85, Iona 72

HoF Tipoff:
Texas Tech 75, Boston College 64
Northwestern 82, LaSalle 74 - kind of a bummer Northwestern didn't find a better tournament

Paradise Jam:
Houston 68, Liberty 66
Wake Forest 72, Quinnipiac 55 - Wake finally wins!
Mercer 78, Drexel 59
Colorado 86, Drake 81

...yeah, good stuff is coming in these tournament, though

Sunday, November 19, 2017

11/17 recap

Signature win of the day:
Virginia 76, @VCU 67 - road win that should be Tier 1 by March

assorted results:
@Vanderbilt 79, UNC-Asheville 76 - UNC-A is half decent
North Dakota St 57, @Missouri St 54 - prospective Summit favorite wins on road at prospective MVC favorite
@New Mexico St 75, New Mexico 56
Virginia Tech 103, Washington 79 - neutral site win
Providence 90, St Louis 63 - Provi gets two kind of useful neutral site wins in 2 days

the lolwat result of the day:
Concordia-St Paul 69, @Milwaukee 55 - wat

Oh my god it's a tidal wave of tournaments!:

Vermont 65, Bradley 64
Northern Kentucky 87, James Madison 78
Iona 80, Weber St 72
Coastal Carolina 83, UTSA 69
Vermont is the best team here and really could use 3 wins

Temple 88, Auburn 74
Old Dominion 62, Indiana St 44
Clemson 78, Hofstra 59
Dayton 79, Ohio 65

Paradise Jam:
Mercer 63, Liberty 48
Drexel 84, Houston 80
Colorado 70, Quinnipiac 69
Drake 77, Wake Forest 74 - boy, Wake sucks

Puerto Rico:
Boise St 82, Illinois St 64
Western Michigan 86, Appalachian St 67
Iowa St 80, Tulsa 78
South Carolina 80, UTEP 56
First round here....looks like the 4 best teams, and the 4 teams closest to bubble relevance, won

Tulane 80, Colorado St 53
Florida St 67, Fordham 43
Miami(OH) 78, LIU 74

Saturday, November 18, 2017

11/16 recap

Signature win of the day:
Xavier 80, @Wisconsin 70 - likely will end up as a Tier 1 win; you can never have a shortage of those

potent potables:
@St John's 79, Nebraska 56 - we'll need to pay attention to St John's this year, probably
St Louis 77, Virginia Tech 71 - goes down as a solid neutral site win for the A-10 and a minor disaster for Va Tech (that can be recovered from, though)
Providence 77, Washington 70 - another neutral site game, although it feels like UW might not be good enough to make this win matter
Belmont 69, @Middle Tennessee 63 - likely won't impact the bubble, but the OVC favorite goes on the road to beat the CUSA favorite.  Interesting
@Utah 77, Missouri 59 - road loss, so no big deal, but if I were Mizzou, I wouldn't want to give up bubble equity during the non-con in spots like this

Puerto Rico Tip-Off:
Illinois St 69, South Carolina 65 - the one common theme with these tournaments is:  DON'T GET TRAPPED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE BRACKET.  South Carolina did untold amounts of damage to its resume with this.  One bad loss and two bad games upcoming, while the other side of the bracket has quality win chances
Boise St 58, UTEP 56 - this also hurts Boise, by the way.  BSU is a team that needs to stack quality win chances on top of each other, and just had one taken away from them
Iowa St 104, Appalachian St 98
Tulsa 81, Western Michigan 74
Big early tourney for Boise, who needs to pile up quality wins before they step into the MWC

Auburn 83, Indiana St 64
Temple 76, Old Dominion 65
Clemson 81, Ohio 76
Hofstra 72, Dayton 69 - not good for Dayton
Interesting little tournament here, as any loss by anybody could be perceived as a bad loss, but the winner will pick up 3 neutral site wins and get a modest resume boost

11/15 recap

signature wins of the day:
Creighton 92, @Northwestern 88 - not a killer for NU, plenty of quality win chances coming.  Bigger deal is a prospective bubble team adding a road win of note

results of note:
@Seton Hall 84, Indiana 68 - Indiana is not good this year
@UCLA 106, Central Arkansas 101 (OT) - wait, what?
BYU 65, @Princeton 56 - road wins are never trivial
@Maryland 79, Butler 65 - two probable tourney teams, so this result is mostly a non-factor for now

Thursday, November 16, 2017

11/14 recap

Signature wins of the day:
Duke 88, Michigan St 81 - truth of the matter is, these wins mean less than you think.  Both teams have treasure troves of signature win chances coming, so the impact of this will be diminished over time.  Still, it's a useful chip to have, but only if one of them is competing for a spot on the 1 line, or both are ranked near each other.  Head-to-head doesn't seem to impact the committee that much
Kansas 65, Kentucky 61 - same deal here, especially with an improved SEC.  These chances aren't as critical to UK anymore

wins of note:
Purdue 86, @Marquette 71 - if you learn anything from this blog, it's that road wins are never trivial

losses of note:
@Arizona St 90, San Diego St 68 - score is concerning, too.  MWC contenders shouldn't be blown out by Pac-12 also-rans....even on the road
Eastern Washington 67, @Stanford 61 - so, that's a terrible loss

interesting results:
Monmouth 80, @Lehigh 72 - ok, maybe Monmouth might still be good
Liberty 79, @Wake Forest 66 - good god, Wake

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

11/13 recap

win of the day:
Minnesota 86, @Providence 74 - our first signature road win?  Road win over a probable tourney team, likely a Tier 1 victory come March.  That's a signature win

wins of note:
Middle Tennessee 72, @Murray St 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Nevada 88, Rhode Island 81 - good matchup of conference favorites.  The home team winning probably means nothing significant to either's resume.  Well, maybe this hurts URI more than you'd think; the A-10 is struggling as a whole so far

catastrophic losses:
Jacksonville St 94, @Richmond 61 - ok, so I think we've established Richmond is not good this year
Montana 83, @Pittsburgh 78 - Pitt probably wasn't going to survive the ACC, but it's always nice to mentally check off a team this early for my purposes
Milwaukee 74, @Iowa St 56

not as hurtful as you think:
@Belmont 69, Vanderbilt 60 - good on Vandy for playing a true road game; this isn't going to hurt them as much as you'd think.  A better SEC will give them chances to rebound, and the committee will forgive the occasional road loss like this

trivial results:
Wichita St pounded CAA favorite Charleston....St Mary's over New Mexico St....USC over NDSU....Notre Dame over Mt St Mary's.  A motley collection of decent-to-good mid-majors go down.  MEAC favorite Morgan St did win on the road at South Florida.  FGCU beat Siena on the road, they might be semi-good.  Old Dominion beat James Madison on the road.  One of the MAC favorites, Western Michigan, lost on the road at South Carolina.  Wyoming beat Oregon St, whoop-de-doo.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

11/12 recap

Get used to the slower pace of the blog updates, at least for the first couple months.

@Kentucky 73, Vermont 69 - if nothing else, it helps cement Vermont's status on the 13 line assuming they eventually get through the A-East
@Washington St 86, Texas Southern 84 (OT) - everyone's favorite SWAC team showing well
@Arkansas 101, Bucknell 73 - along the same veins of mid-major stars, Bucknell hasn't shown as well through two games so far

lol of the day:  Le Tourneau 99, @Northwestern St 84

...not much else on this day.  Plenty of name teams played, they all had service holds at home over relative cupcakes.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

11/11 recap

Notre Dame 72, @DePaul 58 - only notable in that it goes down as a true road win

terrible non D-1 loss of the day:  Ouachita Baptist 81, @Little Rock 79

...there's not a lot going on here today.  Most teams played yesterday, so you're not going to find any results of impact.  FGCU beats Illinois St at home...that's what, the 2nd most impactful score of the day?  Pass.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

11/10 recap

Thus begins the daily recaps on the blog.  A quick reminder to what we do with these:

1) We don't bother mentioning cupcake wins, unless they're notable for some reason.  Duke beating East Bumfuck St isn't notable enough for me to waste the time during typing these things.
2) We pay much more attention to bubble teams and try to feature wins that will matter in March.
3) Remember home wins are diminished and road wins are gold.
4) When the time is appropriate, we'll pay attention to all conference races.
5) During these first couple months, these recaps are all about identifying which teams matter and which don't.

So with that, notable Day 1 results.

Catastrophic loss of the day:  Niagara 77, @St Bonaventure 75 - that's going to look pretty terrible for a probable bubble team in March

lolwat score of the day:  Indiana St 90, @Indiana 69 - wat

Impact results:
UCLA 63, Georgia Tech 60 - neutral site wins have some value
Georgia Southern 85, @Wake Forest 83 - could be catastrohpic, but Wake will have chances to recover
Texas A&M 88, West Virginia 65 - both are likely tourney teams, so eventually this result will be minimized by other key results, but still.  Big positive sign for the SEC on day 1
@Missouri 74, Iowa St 59 - again, SEC just winning these games is a big deal

Interesting results:
Delaware 76, @Richmond 63 - another building block for the Colonial's conference RPI, which has been really good in previous years
@North Carolina 86, Northern Iowa 69 - perhaps interesting to those who assume UNI is at their strength of previous years; they're not
@Navy 71, Pittsburgh 62 - not quite as bad as you'd think since this was a true road game for Pitt
Lamar 74, @Tulsa 67 - on the one hand, Lamar is the rare competent Southland team and Tulsa is bad.  On the other's the Southland, for cripes' sake
@Alabama 72, Memphis 70
UC Riverside 74, California 66
@Monmouth 79, Bucknell 78 - Bucknell is supposed to be an elite mid-major this year...this is a very harmful loss for at-large chances, which might've existed coming into the year

Thursday, November 9, 2017

11/10 S-CURVE

Maybe I'll do a bracket, but this S-Curve should suffice.  Some tweaks made from the offseason bracket.

Quick conference-by-conference thoughts.

ACC - I have them with 8 teams....seems about right.  I don't see potential to max out to double-digit teams this year, but the conference has a high floor.  Plenty of quality win chances to go around.
B1G - I see a beefy middle of the conference, I expect the top 7-8 teams to be solid in the non-con and build up good resumes.  This leads to plenty of quality win chances for bubble teams in March.
Big 12 - The round-robin schedule hurts this conference just a little bit, as I see the bottom few teams dragging down the league.  They should get their usual number of bids.
SEC - The big story to me last year was the work this conference did OOC.  Much better SoS numbers across the board, and now the talent on the teams are starting to catch up.  Not sure if a 3rd team behind UK and UF can rise very high in the S-Curve, but this might be the year they get back to 5 or 6 teams in the NCAAs.
Pac-12 - Ew.
Big East - They've got some problems establishing a second big-time program behind's slowly catching up to them in seeding.
AAC - Very curious to see their seeds in March.  They've been disrespected in previous years, now we'll see how much Wichita changes the math.  I've seeded them conservatively for now, because I'm not completely sold the AAC hate will go away yet.

The 1 line:  Duke, Kansas, Arizona, Villanova
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida
The 3 line:  Notre Dame, West Virginia, USC, Wichita St
The 4 line:  Xavier, Purdue, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
The 5 line:  Northwestern, Minnesota, Miami, Louisville
The 6 line:  Baylor, Seton Hall, UCLA, St Mary's
The 7 line:  Texas, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Rhode Island
The 8 line:  Oregon, Alabama, TCU, Providence
The 9 line:  Florida St, Missouri, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 10 line:  Creighton, Nevada, Michigan, Stanford
The 11 line:  Texas A&M, Maryland, Arkansas, Central Florida, Butler, Virginia
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, Oakland, Texas-Arlington, Charleston
The 13 line:  Middle Tennessee, Bucknell, Vermont, Western Michigan
The 14 line:  Iona, Harvard, New Mexico St, Murray St
The 15 line:  FGCU, South Dakota St, Long Beach St, Furman
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville, Idaho, St Francis(PA), Stephen F Austin, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M

Last 4 in:
Central Florida

Last 4 out:
San Diego St

Next 4 out:
Boise St
Wake Forest

Break it down!
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
Pac-12 5
A-10 2