Friday, January 31, 2014

1/31 recap

Harvard 82, Princeton 76 - Princeton already two down in the Ivy
Little impact elsewhere.  Mercer and FGCU win and hold serve in the A-Sun.  Iona beats Manhattan, joins Canisius at the top, Manhattan two down in the loss column.  Murray St holds in the OVC.

Saturday preview:
Richmond at VCU - quickly approaching endgame for Richmond
Ohio St at Wisconsin - hey, someone's gotta win
Kentucky at Missouri - the SEC sucks
Toledo at Ohio - remember, Toledo already won AT Akron
Baylor at Oklahoma St - Baylor is desperate
Memphis at SMU - another chance for SMU to legitimize itself
Michigan St at Georgetown - why are we playing a non-con game in February again?
Clemson at Florida St - time for Clemson to prove they're a player this year
Kansas at Texas - good God Kansas' schedule
Oklahoma at Iowa St - just another Big 12 game
Arizona St at Stanford - my kingdom for some sense and order in the Pac-12 bubble race
Arkansas at LSU - winner gets to stay on the bubble
UMass at St Joseph's - ok, UMass, time to stiffen up
Duke at Syracuse
Utah Valley at New Mexico St - time for NMSU to take control of the WAC
Gonzaga at San Francisco - is SF any good?
St Mary's at BYU - bubble elimination game

1/31 Bubble Watch

Following is a massive wall of text, a bubble watch for all 32 conferences.  Use this information freely to build your brackets.  I may edit this for space as needed, do note.  This is the chart I keep updated and use myself.  So disseminate my knowledge to the masses.

The numbers are courtesy of CBS, presumably managed by Jerry Palm.  There may be discrepancies in the numbers from different sites, which is fine.  The goal is not exact precision here; the goal is relatively accurate information for everyone that you can compare.  If some team is off by a few RPI or SoS points, that's ok.

America East

Conference championship watch
Stony Brook (14-7) (7-1) RPI 163 SoS 294
Vermont (11-9) (7-1) RPI 128 SoS 203

Stony Brook has round 1 in conference play, Vermont has the better RPI/SoS and the best non-con win (N-Illinois St).  Looking dicey for anyone in the A-East to avoid the 16 line.

EIEIO watch
Albany (11-10) (5-3) RPI 198 SoS 287 – Probably the only other team with a prayer of the postseason

No postseason
Hartford (10-13) (4-4)
* UMass-Lowell (4-14) (4-4)
UMBC (6-14) (3-5)
New Hampshire (4-16) (3-5)
Maine (3-16) (2-6)
Binghamton (4-17) (1-7)



Cincinnati (20-2) (9-0) RPI 19 SoS 82
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 100, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 160/25
Quality wins:  N-Pitt, @Memphis, @Louisville, SMU
Bad losses:  none (N-Xavier doesn’t count)
The top-end quality of the top wins are starting to look very good.  And most importantly, those are R/N games they’re doing it in.  Profile may lack the depth it needs for a 1 or 2 seed, but the high-end quality is there.  Time to really take this team seriously on the top lines.  N-Xavier and @UNM are plenty excusable with those scalps.

Memphis (15-4) (6-2) RPI 24 SoS 34
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 172/18
Quality wins:  N-Oklahoma St, @Louisville, N-LSU?
Bad losses:  none, although home losses to Cincy and UConn hurt H2H situations
Your pretty standard lockbox team.  Good wins, no bad losses, lost a couple swing games.

UConn (17-4) (5-3) RPI 35 SoS 73
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 70, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/78
Quality wins:  Florida, @Memphis, Harvard and N-Indiana?
Bad losses:  @Houston doesn’t look so hot.  @SMU and Stanford?  Eh
The top two wins will have some mileage.  As for now, another standard lockbox team.

Louisville (17-4) (6-2) RPI 39 SoS 77
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 168, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 180/26
Quality wins:  @UConn, Southern Miss and SMU?
Bad losses:  N-UNC?  Nah.  Home to Cincy and Memphis, perhaps
Ehhhh.  Marginal SoS.  One really solid win, and home whiffs in other quality win chances.  Heft isn’t there.  They need to lean on the eye test hard.  It may be time to start really docking this team some seeding lines.  But they’re still not close to the bubble, so they shouldn’t panic too much yet.


SMU (16-5) (5-3) RPI 52 SoS 127
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 275, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 199/64
Quality wins:  UConn!
Bad losses:  @USF.  @Arkansas doesn’t really count
One quality win.  One.  That’s it.  The signature road win is Wyoming.  The good news is all the losses are road losses, 3 of them to legit tourney teams.  However, the black mark is that 275 above.  Still have both ends of a Memphis series, and UL and Cincy at home.  Probably need 2 of those.

EIEIO watch
Houston (11-10) (3-5) RPI 171 SoS 145 – If you had to pick one more postseason team…

No postseason
South Florida (11-10) (2-6)
Rutgers (7-13) (2-6)
Central Florida (7-9) (1-6)
Temple (6-13) (1-7)



UMass (17-3) (4-2) RPI 8 SoS 28
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 17, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 107/48
Quality wins:  N-New Mexico…and a pocket collection:  N-BYU, Provi, LSU…
Bad losses:  @Richmond and @St Bona?
9-3 R/N will get you a long way with the committee.  Great SoS.  Those road losses are forgivable as long as they don’t become a trend.  This is a team that typically ends up overseeded by the committee.  They’ll be fine.

George Washington (17-3) (5-1) RPI 25 SoS 93
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 134, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/66
Quality wins:  N-Creighton, VCU for sure
Bad losses:  N-Marquette, @LaSalle (both are borderline)
A lot of mileage from that Creighton win right now.  8 Top 100 wins and a good R/N mean a lock for now, and surprisingly, maybe the 2nd best A-10 resume right now.

St Louis (18-2) (6-0) RPI 22 SoS 91
Vital signs:  8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 120, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 5-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 171/8
Quality wins:  uh oh.  Richmond, Indiana St, @Dayton?
Bad losses:  both are Top 10 losses
They’re a lock just because they’re a good team.  But man, they need a win over a tournament team at some point.


VCU (17-4) (5-1) RPI 33 SoS 88
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 94, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 148/60
Quality wins:  @Virginia for sure, @Belmont, @LaSalle, and @Dayton?
Bad losses:  @UNI looks dicey
The great thing here is all their biggest games have been R/N games so far.  The committee loves that stuff.  I can’t imagine this profile being in trouble unless they miss their other chances in the A-10 for decent wins.

Richmond (14-7) (4-2) RPI 44 SoS 37
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/45
Quality wins:  UMass, St Joe’s and Dayton and Belmont and Delaware are marginal
Bad losses:  @Wake?  @St Bonaventure@  Ohio?  The losses are numerous
The win over UMass gets them at least in the general vicinity of the bubble.  They’ll need road results to really get into the main picture, though.

NIT watch
Dayton (13-8) (1-5) RPI 77 SoS 69 – They’ve fallen off the consideration board with a miserable A-10 start.  They’ve got the signature wins (Gonzaga and Cal in Maui, @Ole Miss) to get there….but USC?  @URI?  @Ill. St?  Way too many body blows, which is a shame.  There’s time to fix this, but they’ve taken about as much damage as they can afford.
St Joseph’s (14-6) (4-2) RPI 58 SoS 92 – You could make a bubble argument, until you see there’s 2 Top 100 wins, and they whiffed in their 5 toughest games.  Run is possible, not nearly probable.
LaSalle (11-9) (3-3) RPI 75 SoS 53 – Before you get carried away, just 1 Top 100 win.  Pass.
St Bonaventure (13-8) (3-4) RPI 71 SoS 90 – There’s actually 5 Top 100 wins here.  UMass is the lynchpin.  Way too many bad losses, but the NIT is definitely in play with a strong finish here.

EIEIO watch
None listed here right now, but obviously 2 (or 3?) of those NIT watch teams will slip down to here.

No postseason
Duquesne (9-9) (2-4)
Rhode Island (10-10) (2-4)
Fordham (8-12) (1-6)
George Mason (7-13) (0-6)



Syracuse (20-0) (7-0) RPI 6 SoS 75
Vital signs:  8-0 R/N, non-con SoS 98, 4-0 vs. Top 50, 12-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 130/0
Quality wins:  Villanova, Pitt, N-Minnesota, UNC, N-Cal
Bad losses:  nope
Only issue is that if the profile absorbs a couple of losses, I’m not sure it’s enough to stay on the 1 line.  However, ACC play will provide signature win chances, so no reason to sweat it.

Duke (17-4) (6-2) RPI 10 SoS 7
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 23, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100 avg W/L 118/49
Quality wins:  Michigan, N-UCLA, @Pitt, Virginia, FSU, etc
Bad losses:  @Clemson and @Notre Dame look marginal
This profile would be exponentially better without those 2 marginal losses.  Alas.  Neutral losses to Kansas and Arizona could hurt the jockeying for position in the S-Curve.  Still though, your standard fare Duke profile, really.

Pittsburgh (18-3) (6-2) RPI 20 SoS 52
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 174, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/11
Quality wins:  N-Stanford?  @NC St?
Bad losses:  none
Um, you guys can be a lock for now, but I’d like to see a good win at some point.  They have some decent wins, a lack of non-con heft, and a situation where their seed can vary wildly.

Virginia (16-5) (7-1) RPI 21 SoS 21
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 39, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 146/32
Quality wins:  sweep of FSU, UNC, N-SMU and @NC St?
Bad losses:  @Green Bay looks worse than it is.  Other losses are fine
They probably whiffed their 4 toughest games, but they’ve done enough for now, I think.  Very, very marginal lock to be honest.


Florida St (13-7) (4-4) RPI 32 SoS 20
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 167/22
Quality wins:  N-UMass, N-VCU, @Clemson…hmm…
Bad losses:  actually, outside of NC State on the road, none
The problem isn’t the quality of loss, because their losses are plenty excusable (the sweep of Virginia does hurt a bit).  The issue is of quantity.  6-6 R/N looks bad until you look at the quality of teams they’ve played on the road.  5 losses inside the RPI Top 25.  And they’ve offset it a bit with neutral court wins over A-10 powers.  My guess is hanging around .500 in the ACC is enough for the NCAA tournament, but just tread carefully.

North Carolina (13-7) (3-4) RPI 43 SoS 17
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 21, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 143/57
Quality wins:  @Michigan St, Kentucky, N-Louisville, N-Richmond?
Bad losses:  Miami, @Wake and @UAB
Please win and make life easy for bracketologists everywhere.  I still have nothing to say here in protest.

North Carolina St (14-7) (4-4) RPI 58 SoS 36
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 102, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 163/42
Quality wins:  FSU, @Tennessee
Bad losses:  NC Central at home, yikes, @Wake?
They’ve kind of muscled their way to next-in-line in the ACC.  Borderline bubble case, but worth a cursory look for now.

NIT watch
Wake Forest (14-7) (4-4) RPI 63 SoS 68 – A case could be made for the bubble here; home wins over UNC and Richmond buttress the resume, and no losses are egregious.  If they can find quality wins somewhere in the ACC, we can talk a bit more.  But they’ve lost to several bubblish teams.
Clemson (13-6) (4-3) RPI 80 SoS 127 – Bad, bad non-con SoS (289) hints at the lack of resume support outside of their win over Duke.  Bad road loss to Auburn.  Too many flaws despite the shiny record.

EIEIO watch
Maryland (12-9) (4-4) RPI 82 SoS 49 – N-Providence signature win.  Ok then.  Pass.
Notre Dame (11-10) (2-6) RPI 112 SoS 42 – Poor wasted win over Duke.

No postseason
Boston College (5-14) (2-5)
Georgia Tech (11-10) (2-6)
Miami (10-10) (2-6)
Virginia Tech (8-12) (1-7)


Conference championship watch
Mercer (14-5) (8-1) RPI 65 SoS 191
FGCU (11-9) (7-2) RPI 183 SoS 264

It’s tempting to find room for Mercer on the bubble; they did win @Ole Miss, but a couple miserable road losses end that argument quickly.  FGCU is the threat to them yet again.  They have a surprisingly bad, bad, resume.

EIEIO watch
East Tennessee St (10-10) (4-4) RPI 225 SoS 260 – As the only other A-Sun team at .500, congrats for getting listed.  Well actually, the CIT counts non-D1, so UNF and USC-Upstate are at .500 too.  A-Sun should find a 3rd postseason team somewhere, at least.

No postseason
North Florida (10-11) (6-4)
USC Upstate (9-10) (4-4)
Stetson (6-15) (4-5)
Lipscomb (8-12) (4-6)
Jacksonville (6-13) (4-6)
* Northern Kentucky (8-14) (4-6)
Kennesaw St (2-18) (1-8)

Big 12


Kansas (16-4) (7-0) RPI 1 SoS 1
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 8-4 vs. Top 50, 12-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 68/12
Quality wins:  N-Duke, Okla St, swept Iowa St, N-New Mexico, @Oklahoma, on and on…
Bad losses:  @Colorado looks worse than it really is
This is quickly shaping into a profile worthy of a 1 seed; especially if they run away with the Big 12.  One hanging issue:  3 losses to ‘Nova, Florida, and SDSU – direct competition on the top 2 lines.  On the one hand, it’s good they losses are to top teams.  On the other, they’re going to lose H2H battles on the S-Curve.

Oklahoma St (16-4) (4-3) RPI 14 SoS 26
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 78, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/20
Quality wins:  Memphis, N-Colorado, Texas….N-La Tech, Butler, and Purdue?
Bad losses:  none (all 4 are neutral or away to tournament teams)
Eventually, to justify a top 3 seed, they’ll need a couple more quality wins in league play.  Separating from the rest of the Big 12 pack is key.  They’ve lost the swing road games (Okla and K-St) so far in conference play.

Iowa St (15-4) (3-4) RPI 12 SoS 6
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 62, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 124/13
Quality wins:  Michigan, Iowa, K-State, @BYU and N-Boise?
Bad losses:  none (reasonable road losses)
If there is a nit to pick, they could use a true road win against a tournament team.  They’ll need that for a really high seed.  Michigan and Iowa wins are picking up speed now.

Oklahoma (17-4) (6-2) RPI 18 SoS 15
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 67, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 133/30
Quality wins:  Iowa St, Okla St, @Texas, @Baylor?, Mercer is the best non-con win?
Bad losses:  For high seed purposes, La Tech
Oklahoma is making up for a marginal non-con performance where the signature win is Mercer.  They’re holding serve at home against other tournament teams, which is enough to earn lockbox status.  Still, this is one team whose seed I expect to oscillate wildly in the coming weeks.


Texas (16-4) (5-2) RPI 31 SoS 44
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 144, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 8-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 144/21
Quality wins:  Iowa St, Kansas St, @UNC, @Baylor?
Bad losses:  I guess N-BYU doesn’t look so great
The bad news is that @UNC feather doesn’t look as great as it normally does.  Still, their top 3 wins are very favorable compared to the bubble, so they’re plenty safe for now.  If they continue stay above .500 in conference play, there’s going to be enough quality wins to ensure their safety.

Kansas St (15-6) (5-3) RPI 38 SoS 29
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 102, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 133/67
Quality wins:  Okla St, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, G. Washington (all at home)
Bad losses:  N-Charlotte and N. Colorado are losing steam; so is N-Georgetown
The issue here is the road issues.  Losing at Iowa St, Texas is fine.  However, two dicey neutral losses; and the signature road win right now is TCU.  Uh oh.  It’s signature because it’s the only true road win.  They just need to beat the bottom of the Big 12 on the road, because there’s 4 Top 25 wins right now which suggest this profile should be okay.

Baylor (11-7) (1-6) RPI 68 SoS 30
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 74, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 3-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 166/41
Quality wins:  Kentucky, Colorado and Dayton in Maui
Bad losses:  @Texas Tech, WVU
Losers of 5 in a row.  Kentucky and N-Colorado are fine wins to buttress the resume, but there’s no depth of quality wins behind that.  So this slide is costing them.  Worse, they’ve already punted 2 of the Big 12 cupcake games.  The good news is that quality win chances will continue to smack them in the forehead, so there’s every chance to get back into the field of 68.

EIEIO watch
West Virginia (12-9) (4-4) RPI 83 SoS 70 – They still probably fall below .500 by the end of the season, but they’re hanging on for now.

No postseason
Texas Tech (10-11) (2-6)
TCU (8-10) (0-7)

Big East


Villanova (18-2) (7-1) RPI 3 SoS 14
Vital signs:  9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 10-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 118/8
Quality wins:  N-Kansas, N-Iowa, Provi?
Bad losses:  none
Those wins in Atlantis is worth everything right now.  It’s not a bad thing, though.  Could use more resume heft.  Is holding off Creighton in the eyes of the committee thanks to those wins, for now.

Creighton (18-3) (8-1) RPI 11 SoS 24
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 55, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 116/30
Quality wins:  @Villanova, Xavier, N-Arizona St, Cal, @St Joe’s?
Bad losses:  @Providence?
7 wins from 51-100 RPI really beef up the resume in the middle.  It helps get a good seed but not a great seed.  Neutral losses to SDSU and G. Wash may end up being daggers.  Still though, the eye test is in their favor right now.  Doesn’t have a better profile than Nova.


Xavier (15-5) (5-2) RPI 36 SoS 45
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 69, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 8-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 115/50
Quality wins:  N-Cincy, Tennessee and a bunch of marginal home wins
Bad losses:  N-USC
Boy, the bubble approaches quickly in this conference.  Meanwhile, that signature win is getting better and better.  Plus, the depth in the resume is good which helps erase a couple losses that might be marginal.  Clear #3 in the conference for now.

Providence (15-6) (5-3) RPI 48 SoS 59
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 163, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 146/54
Quality wins:  Creighton, Xavier, G’town?
Bad losses:  home to Seton Hall, N-Maryland, @Marquette?
Those marginal losses are really denting this profile.  They’ve got the high end win or two they need to squeeze past the bubble for now, but they’ll need to all more profile heft in the next month.  Problem is it’s going to get early late for them, as home chances against 2 of the top 3 are already used up.

Georgetown (11-9) (3-6) RPI 74 SoS 24
Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 75, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 154/63
Quality wins:  N-VCU, N-Kansas St
Bad losses:  N-Northeastern, Seton Hall, Marquette
At this point, they’re barely clinging to the bubble with those two quality wins.  Move along.

NIT watch
Marquette (12-9) (4-4) RPI 79 SoS 60 – Boy, we’ve already reached NIT watch?  Seems very soon.  But the fact is that the Big East is down.  And it starts here.  They did beat Provi and G. Washington on a neutral.  And 8 of the 9 losses are top 50 losses, so they’re not doing ridiculous things.  However, too many chances are by the boards to take this team seriously.
St John’s (12-9) (2-6) RPI 78 SoS 35 – The signature win is @Butler.  Pass.
Seton Hall (12-9) (3-5) RPI 143 SoS 124 – That RPI/SoS suggests there’s no meat in this resume.  It’s right.

EIEIO watch
Butler (11-9) (2-7) RPI 89 SoS 65

No postseason
DePaul (10-11) (2-6)

Big Sky

Conference championship watch
Weber St (9-6) (8-1) RPI 164 SoS 243
Northern Colorado (11-5) (7-2) RPI 158 SoS 312

I’ll be highly surprised if anyone other than these 2 contend.  NCU has the signature win at Kansas St.  The only other top 200 win either team owns is Northern Colorado’s win over Weber St at home.

EIEIO watch
Portland St (8-8) (5-4) RPI 283 SoS 320 – I guess if there’s going to be another postseason team.  But there’s a good chance there won’t be; N. Dakota is only 9-10 overall and no one else is really doing anything.

No postseason
North Dakota (7-10) (6-3)
Northern Arizona (7-12) (5-4)
Montana St (7-10) (4-4)
Montana (7-9) (4-5)
Idaho St (5-11) (4-5)
Eastern Washington (6-12) (3-6)
Sacramento St (5-11) (3-6)
Southern Utah (0-17) (0-9)

Big South

Conference championship watch
Coastal Carolina (9-9) (5-2) RPI 245 SoS 307
Campbell (8-10) (5-2) RPI 280 SoS 331

Two teams at 5-2, six at 4-3.  It’s a mess.  This conference is beelining towards Dayton.  Frankly, ignore everything I write for this conference below; I’m listing it for accounting purposes only.  Use it to help project, with the understanding it’ll change quickly.  Also, everyone has a plurality of non-D1 wins.

EIEIO watch
Radford (11-8) (4-3) RPI 231 SoS 345

No postseason
VMI (7-9) (4-3)
Winthrop (8-9) (4-3)
Gardner-Webb (8-11) (4-3)
UNC Asheville (7-11) (4-3)
High Point (6-12) (4-3)
Liberty (6-13) (3-4)
Charleston Southern (5-11) (3-4)
Longwood (3-15) (2-5)
Presbyterian (2-18) (0-7)



Michigan St (19-2) (8-1) RPI 5 SoS 8
Vital signs:  10-0 R/N, non-con SoS 47, 6-2 vs. Top 50, 11-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 113/28
Quality wins:  N-Kentucky, N-Oklahoma, @Iowa, @Texas, OSU, Minny, sweep of Indiana
Bad losses:  both losses are home losses, one to UNC
10 R/N wins, 11 Top 100 wins.  There’s plenty of depth in the resume.  Right in line for a 1 seed, probably dependent on their placement within the B1G.  They’ll need to make up the loss to Michigan in the standings.

Michigan (16-4) (8-0) RPI 13 SoS 13
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 6-3 vs. Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 121/37
Quality wins:  @Michigan St, @Wisky, @Minny, N-Florida St, Iowa
Bad losses:  N-Charlotte
They’ve got some equity in their R/N results.  6-2 R/N vs. Top 100.  That’s quite good, actually.  With most of the big results made away from home, their seed could really skyrocket with more good B1G results.  N-Charlotte is ignorable at this stage.

Iowa (16-5) (5-3) RPI 37 SoS 64
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 228, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/8
Quality wins:  Minny, @OSU, N-Xavier?
Bad losses:  all losses are inside the RPI Top 15
The good news is all losses are respectable.  The bad news is a lousy non-con SoS and no real high-end wins to support a top 3 seed.  They’re a lock, obviously, but their seed is hard to pin down right now.  They’ll need a high-end result to lock down a protected seed, given how many teams they’re behind in the pecking order (Nova, Michigan, MSU, Wisky, Ia St)

Wisconsin (17-4) (4-4) RPI 9 SoS 3
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 10, 4-2 vs. Top 50, 10-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 108/54
Quality wins:  Florida, @Virginia, N-St Louis, Iowa, @Green Bay?
Bad losses:  Northwestern!  Also, @Indiana?
Still in the lockbox for now despite the big slide.  To be fair, there is a monster non-con season that will help this profile out for a while.  Just stop losing and they’ll be fine for a nice seed.  Everything about this profile screamed 1 seed before the slide.  Long way to go.


Minnesota (14-6) (4-4) RPI 28 SoS 4
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 49, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/36
Quality wins:  Wisky, Ohio St, Florida St, @Richmond?
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, N-Arkansas
Quality results at home are getting them into the field for now.  Shaky record vs. Top 100 and R/N make this your classic bubble case, though.  Tough to imagine them sliding out of the field unless they whiff a lot in conference play.

Ohio St (16-5) (3-5) RPI 29 SoS 27
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 48, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 127/46
Quality wins:  NDSU?  @Marquette, Illinois, Delaware…uh oh
Bad losses:  Penn St at home
Amazing what a couple losses do to a profile that was barren to begin with.  6 wins in between 51-100, and Maryland, Marquette, Ohio are in there.  Names that look better than the profile support they give.  Legit bubble trouble now, although they’re still probably in the field of 68.

Indiana (13-8) (3-5) RPI 69 SoS 55
Vital signs:  2-6 R/N, non-con SoS 166, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 180/50
Quality wins:  Wisky
Bad losses:  Northwestern
That home win over Wisky is the profile support right now.  Right on the edge of falling off the bubble.

NIT watch
Illinois (13-8) (2-6) RPI 66 SoS 61 – You can make an argument they should be in the same category as Indiana, but they lack the signature win they have (N-Missouri has lost steam).  4-6 R/N and 3-6 vs. Top 100 are critical flaws.

EIEIO watch
Purdue (13-8) (3-5) RPI 101 SoS 101 – No wins over tournament teams.

No postseason
Northwestern (11-11) (4-5)
Nebraska (11-9) (3-5)
Penn St (11-10) (2-6) – Kinda weird, with everyone over .500.  Obviously some are missing the postseason.  The RPIs here are 100, 68 (!), and 98, respectively.  Jeez.  The entire conference is in the top 100.

Big West

Conference championship watch
UC Santa Barbara (11-6) (4-2) RPI 92 SoS 165
UC Irvine (11-9) (4-2) RPI 144 SoS 180
Long Beach St (6-12) (4-2) RPI 104 SoS 9

The entire conference is between 4-2 and 2-5.  EVERYBODY.  Good luck projecting this one out.  UCSB beat Cal, Irvine won at Washington, so this conference can do things.  LBSU played their typically insane schedule.  If you want to get technical, UCSB own the tiebreakers as of today.

EIEIO watch
Hawaii (12-6) (3-3) RPI 140 SoS 206

No postseason
Cal Poly (6-12) (4-3)
Cal St Northridge (9-11) (3-4)
Cal St Fullerton (7-12) (2-3)
UC Davis (5-14) (2-4)
UC Riverside (5-14) (2-5)

Conference championship watch

Delaware (15-7) (7-0) RPI 62 SoS 140
Towson (11-8) (4-2) RPI 156 SoS 234

Delaware is the class, and only Towson seems capable enough to run them down.  Delaware has a surprisingly high RPI for a team with zero top 100 wins – they’ve lost to some good teams.  Overall, a decent start to the season for the CAA has regressed.  The good news is they stabilized a bit and aren’t freefalling in the RPI anymore.  It’s a small step forward for this conference.

EIEIO watch
William & Mary (11-8) (4-3) RPI 141 SoS 188 – There’s actually a bit of a traffic jam in the middle of the conference, so the EIEIO watch could be fluid in January.
Drexel (11-9) (3-4) RPI 115 SoS 110 – Sigh.  That win over Alabama evaporated into nothing.  They scheduled up and got beaten up as a result.

No postseason
Northeastern (7-15) (4-4)
Charleston (11-11) (3-4)
James Madison (8-13) (3-4)
Hofstra (7-15) (3-4)
UNC Wilmington (6-15) (0-6)



Southern Miss (16-3) (5-1) RPI 34 SoS 133
Vital signs:  10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 138, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 3-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 172/94
Quality wins:  @NDSU is nice, La Tech
Bad losses:  probably @WKU and @Tulsa
The 3 losses are all roadies, at least, and they avoided a bad non-con SoS through decent scheduling that saw many average opponents and little good ones outside of Louisville.  Need to make serious hay in CUSA.  10 road wins is a positive in their ledger, though.

NIT watch
Louisiana Tech (16-5) (5-2) RPI 73 SoS 199 – Such a shame to demote them, but you have to.  Losses of @UTEP and La-L are just killers, even with that signature win at Oklahoma.  That 8-4 R/N record, too.  Sigh.
UTEP (13-6) (5-1) RPI 85 SoS 98 – Creeping into NIT talk with wins of N-Tennessee and La Tech.  Couple marginal losses though.
Charlotte (13-7) (4-3) RPI 121 SoS 195 – I’m ignoring the RPI and looking at neutral wins over Michigan and Kansas St.  Shame they have 5 sub-100 losses.

EIEIO watch
MTSU (12-7) (4-2) RPI 94 SoS 118 – Outside NIT, perhaps, but a high CUSA finish is required.
UAB (12-6) (3-3) RPI 118 SoS 180 – I’ll close the postseason door behind this for now, but I can see 1 or 2 others get into play.  Particularly ODU and Tulsa.

No postseason
Old Dominion (10-11) (4-2)
Tulsa (9-11) (4-2)
* Florida International (9-9) (3-3)
Tulane (10-10) (3-3)
Texas-San Antonio (5-11) (3-3)
North Texas (8-9) (2-4)
Florida Atlantic (5-14) (2-4)
Marshall (6-14) (2-5)
Rice (4-14) (1-6)
East Carolina (7-10) (0-6)



Green Bay (14-4) (7-1) RPI 61 SoS 151
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 92, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 1-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 186/72
Quality wins:  Virginia
Bad losses:  @Valpo, @EMU
Courtesy look, with one quality win propping this up.  The dream is probably over, though.

Behind this, there’s a bunch of decent teams.  Several will make the postseason, but the NIT might be too hopeful.

EIEIO watch
Cleveland St (12-9) (5-3) RPI 107 SoS 141
Valparaiso (10-10) (5-3) RPI 166 SoS 155
Youngstown St (10-9) (4-3) RPI 165 SoS 193
Wright St (11-11) (5-4) RPI 214 SOS 285

No postseason
Milwaukee (13-9) (4-5)
Oakland (6-14) (3-4)
Detroit (8-13) (3-5)
Illinois-Chicago (3-17) (0-8)



Harvard (14-3) (2-0) RPI 49 SoS 175
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 175, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 192/107
Quality wins:  N-Green Bay?
Bad losses:  @FIU
Not likely at this point.  Sorry.

NIT watch
Princeton (11-3) (0-1) RPI 105 SoS 301 – Shiny record, but empty calories inside.

EIEIO watch
Columbia (12-6) (2-0) RPI 145 SoS 259 – We’ve got an entire conference season ahead of us, so these postseason projections can change fast.

No postseason
Penn (4-11) (1-0)
Brown (8-7) (1-1)
Yale (6-9) (1-1)
Dartmouth (5-9) (0-2)
Cornell (0-15) (0-2)


Conference championship watch
Canisius (15-6) (9-2) RPI 81 SoS 223
Iona (11-8) (8-2) RPI 124 SoS 164
Manhattan (14-5) (7-3) RPI 96 SoS 219
Quinnipiac (12-8) (7-4) RPI 110 SoS 156

All of the at-large chances are by the boards, and the resumes are merely average at best.  There’s no reason they can’t sneak in a NIT team or two, though.  But only if there’s separation at the top.  Manhattan’s road win at LaSalle is the signature win among these 4 teams.

No postseason
Rider (10-9) (6-4)
Siena (10-12) (6-5)
Monmouth (10-12) (4-7)
Marist (7-14) (4-7)
St Peter’s (7-12) (3-7)
Niagara (6-16) (3-8)
Fairfield (4-17) (1-9)



Toledo (17-2) (6-1) RPI 30 SoS 138
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 165, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 1-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 178/79
Quality wins:  @Akron?
Bad losses:  @Western Michigan
The shiny record and RPI forces them into this breakdown, by sheer will.  But this isn’t lasting short of a big, big MAC season for them.

NIT watch
Akron (14-6) (6-1) RPI 91 SoS 190
Ohio (14-5) (5-2) RPI 88 SoS 188 – Hey, at least Ohio beat Richmond on the road.  Still, either of these teams can still make the NIT, although the bubble is too far away to get to.

EIEIO watch
Buffalo (10-6) (5-2) RPI 114 SoS 171
Eastern Michigan (9-8) (4-3) RPI 63 SoS 18 – Look at that SoS!
Western Michigan (10-8) (4-3) RPI 157 SoS 201

No postseason
Miami(OH) (8-9) (4-3)
Bowling Green (8-11) (3-4)
Kent St (10-9) (2-5)
Northern Illinois (7-11) (2-5)
Ball St (2-14) (1-6)
Central Michigan (5-12) (0-7)


Conference championship watch
North Carolina Central (12-5) (5-1) RPI 122 SoS 286
Norfolk St (9-9) (6-2) RPI 271 SoS 346

The standings are still a bit compact, but these two teams feel like they’re the class.  Several contenders lurk below, though.  NCCU has a road win at NC State and another at ODU in their hip pocket, for seeding purposes.  Norfolk St won at Boston.

EIEIO watch
Hampton (10-10) (5-2) RPI 243 SoS 311 – Other contenders may emerge, but everyone else took on a lot of water in the non-con, as per usual.

No postseason
Savannah St (5-14) (5-2)
Morgan St (6-12) (4-2)
Coppin St (6-13) (4-3)
North Carolina A&T (6-14) (3-3)
Howard (3-16) (3-3)
Florida A&M (6-13) (3-4)
South Carolina St (5-13) (3-4)
Bethune-Cookman (2-19) (2-6)
UMES (1-15) (0-5)
Delaware St (2-15) (0-5)



Wichita St (21-0) (9-0) RPI 7 SoS 81
Vital signs:  9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 37, 3-0 vs. Top 50, 6-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/0
Quality wins:  @St Louis, Tennessee, N-BYU, Indiana St?
Bad losses:  nope
I love everyone saying they didn’t play anyone, when they have a 37 non-con SoS.  Anyways, their pursuit of the 1 seed is out of their hands until enough other teams absorb enough losses.  Their seed can still fluctuate wildly, all of it beyond their control.  Stay tuned.


Indiana St (14-5) (7-2) RPI 57 SoS 152
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 192, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 196/94
Quality wins:  Belmont, @Notre Dame, Missouri St.  Hoo boy
Bad losses:  N-Tulsa, @SIU
Nope, nope, nope.  Shame for the Valley, but this profile just isn’t getting it done.

NIT watch
Northern Iowa (10-10) (5-4)
Missouri St (13-7) (4-5) – And even both of these listings seems optimistic.

EIEIO watch
Illinois St (10-10) (4-5)
Drake (11-9) (3-6)

No postseason
Bradley (9-13) (4-5)
Evansville (8-12) (3-6)
Loyola(Chi) (7-13) (3-6)
Southern Illinois (6-15) (3-6)

Mountain West


San Diego St (16-1) (7-0) RPI 17 SoS 87
Vital signs:  9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 161/2
Quality wins:  @Kansas, N-Creighton….then Boise and Washington?
Bad losses:  none
The issues remain the same:  the MW is down, hurting SDSU’s chance at the 1 or 2 lines.  It’s clear, though, they have the top-end wins to merit it though.  The question will be how the committee treats the relative lack of depth in their profile.  They also have a good SoS to lean on.  Basically, everything but the lack of depth is a big plus for SDSU.  They will be one of the toughest teams to seed in March.

New Mexico (16-4) (7-1) RPI 27 SoS 40
Vital signs:  9-2 R/N, non-con SoS 18, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 151/48
Quality wins:  Cincinnati, Boise St, @NMSU or N-Marquette?
Bad losses:  UNLV and NMSU at home aren’t great
Maybe an aggressive call on the lockdown, but I can’t see them missing.  Cincy win erases neutral losses to Kansas and UMass.  Basically, they’re in bad loss avoidance at this stage.  This is not the same MW of the past few years, so profile strength isn’t necessarily coming down the road for them.


Boise St (13-6) (5-3) RPI 55 SoS 71
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 53, 0-4 vs. Top 50, 0-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 190/38
Quality wins:  nope
Bad losses:  Wyoming
Good news is that Wyoming is the only loss that actually looks bad.  Bad news is, well, it’s easy to spot.  I’m being generous here even letting them on the bubble.  This ain’t happening.  Worse, they’ve already lost @SDSU and @UNM.  Must win the return games, period.

NIT watch
Nevada (11-10) (6-2) RPI 125 SoS 100 – Storming to the front of the MWC is just hurting the conference, sadly.
UNLV (14-7) (5-3) RPI 107 SoS 129 – A litany of home losses have killed the profile before it had a chance to live.
Wyoming (11-7) (4-3) RPI 103 SoS 121

EIEIO watch
Colorado St (10-9) (3-5) RPI 168 SoS 108
Utah St (11-8) (2-6) RPI 116 SoS 94

No postseason
Air Force (7-10) (3-5)
Fresno St (7-13) (2-7)
San Jose St (4-15) (0-9)


Conference championship watch
Robert Morris (12-10) (7-0) RPI 129 SoS 200
Bryant (12-9) (5-2) RPI 155 SoS 207

This is pretty clearly RMU’s conference to lose.  Bryant has the best chance to chase them down, with none of the 4-3 teams below separating themselves from the field.  RMU has already swept Bryant.  However, those are its only two Top 200 wins.

EIEIO watch
St Francis(NY) (12-9) (4-3) RPI 173 SoS 287 – And two Top 100 wins!

No postseason
Wagner (9-10) (4-3)
Mount St Mary’s (8-12) (4-3)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-12) (4-3)
St Francis(PA) (5-15) (3-4)
LIU (7-13) (2-5)
Central Connecticut St (4-15) (1-6)
Sacred Heart (4-18) (1-6)


Conference championship watch
Belmont (16-7) (8-1) RPI 60 SoS 124
Murray St (10-8) (7-1) RPI 187 SoS 250
Eastern Kentucky (13-7) (6-3) RPI 127 SoS 252

Belmont had a faint whiff of the bubble for a while, but it’s gone by the boards with several losses.  There’s a fair chance this conference gets an at-large bid to the NIT in some form, though.

Belmont’s profile is actually worth one more glance.  Two marginal losses to Denver and S. Dakota St on the road kills it;  but wins at UNC, MTSU, and at home to Indiana St aren’t nothing to sneeze at.  Murray does not have a good profile at all, so don’t bother.

EIEIO watch
Morehead St (12-9) (5-3) RPI 130 SoS 183

No postseason
SIU-E (6-14) (4-4)
Jacksonville St (8-14) (4-5)
Eastern Illinois (5-14) (4-5)
Austin Peay (7-12) (3-4)
Southeast Missouri St (10-10) (3-5)
Tennessee Tech (8-13) (3-5)
Tennessee-Martin (5-17) (2-7)
Tennessee St (2-21) (2-8)



Arizona (21-0) (8-0) RPI 2 SoS 12
Vital signs:  7-0 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 7-0 vs. Top 50, 9-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 104/0
Quality wins:  N-Duke, @SDSU, @Michigan, @UCLA, Colorado, @Stanford
Bad losses:
The #1 profile, and it can take on quite a bit of water before losing a 1 seed.

UCLA (17-4) (6-2) RPI 16 SoS 16
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 125/42
Quality wins:  @Colorado, @Oregon, Arizona St, Stanford, Cal
Bad losses:  Utah
You can kinda see the issue here; a complete lack of non-con results.  Lost to Duke and Mizzou, beat the teams they should.  If they hold 2nd in the Pac-12, it’ll be a non-issue, but it might be worth a seeding line or two in March.


Colorado (15-6) (4-4) RPI 26 SoS 9
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 29, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 145/35
Quality wins:  Kansas, Oregon, Harvard?
Bad losses:  perhaps @Washington
Really tough call on who’s #3 in the Pac-12 pecking order.  It should change frequently.  Colorado’s in the spot for now.  They’re racking up all their equity in home wins right now, which is usually trouble.  They’ve lost a bunch of road games, including to bubble teams.  Loss @Washington, beat Oregon at home, it’s that kind of team.

Stanford (13-7) (4-4) RPI 50 SoS 32
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 71, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 163/38
Quality wins:  @UConn, @Oregon, and a lot of nope
Bad losses:  @Oregon St
A couple of road wins elevate this profile slightly above its fellow bubblers, but in reality they’re in the same position as them – head-to-head battles are going to be key going forward.

Arizona St (16-5) (5-3) RPI 40 SoS 74
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 198, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 165/39
Quality wins:  Colorado, @Cal, Marquette?
Bad losses:  N-Miami and Washington are dicey
A rather marginal non-conference season put them at risk.  Colorado isn’t as impressive a win as it seems.  This is your standard fare bubble profile where everything is yet to be decided.  At least they’re competent on the road, though.

California (14-7) (5-3) RPI 54 SoS 66
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/51
Quality wins:  @Oregon, @Stanford…N-Arkansas?
Bad losses:  @USC and @UCSB aren’t great
The good news is the best of the wins are road/neutral wins, which the committee will gravitate to.  It also gives them the chance to gain an upper hand in head-to-head bubble battles in this conference, of which it appears there will be plenty.

Oregon (14-6) (2-6) RPI 47 SoS 41
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 72, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/54
Quality wins:  BYU, @Ole Miss, N-Illinois, N-Georgetown…yeah
Bad losses:  @Oregon St
Losers of 6 of 7 and are in big trouble.  That’s an impressive non-con slate, until we realized none of those teams are probably tournament teams.  Ouch.  Need to find a baseline in conference play, because they’re losing all these crucial head-to-head battles against fellow bubble teams.  Their non-con profile is still better than the others, so they can rescue this season easily.

NIT watch
Washington (13-8) (5-3) RPI 69 SoS 63 – They’re not quite on the same plane as the bubble teams, but it’s still attainable for them.  No result of note in the non-con except for a couple bad, bad losses, but more wins like @Arizona St and Colorado can rescue them.
Utah (12-6) (3-5) RPI 111 SoS 153 – 4th easiest non-conference schedule, if you’re wondering.  Erases wins over UCLA and BYU.  Their next road win is their first.

EIEIO watch
Oregon St (12-8) (4-4) RPI 117 SoS 115

No postseason
USC (9-11) (1-7)
Washington St (7-12) (1-7)


Conference championship watch
American (13-7) (9-0) RPI 134 SoS 278
Boston (15-7) (8-1) RPI 86 SoS 173

It’s pretty clear these two are the class of the league.  American’s non-con is legitimate Dayton material.  Meanwhile, Boston won at Maryland, Quinnipiac, and Irvine.  You tell me who’s better.  Alas, Boston lost at American.  This conference better hope Boston comes through.

EIEIO watch
Holy Cross (12-9) (6-3) RPI 153 SoS 225

No postseason
Army (9-10) (6-3)
Lehigh (11-11) (4-5)
Bucknell (9-11) (4-5)
Loyola(MD) (8-11) (4-5)
Colgate (7-12) (2-7)
Navy (6-13) (2-7)
Lafayette (3-16) (0-9)



Florida (18-2) (7-0) RPI 4 SoS 33
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 131/23
Quality wins:  Kansas, N-Memphis, FSU, Richmond and Tennessee?
Bad losses:  no, both are quality roadies
Good thing they have non-con results of note, because the SEC is down, yet again.  There’s a couple useful ones in terms of getting a 1 seed.  But Kentucky will probably decide how worthy they are of that.

Kentucky (15-5) (5-2) RPI 15 SoS 5
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 119/53
Quality wins:  Louisville, Tennessee, N-Provi?  Boise St?
Bad losses:  I guess @Baylor and @Arkansas counts
The issue is road/neutral success, as should be evident.  By scheduling up, they gave themselves margins of error, though.  The committee will give them the benefit of the doubt unless they slip up too much against the meaty underbelly of the SEC.  They’ll need to nail Florida a couple times to really get the seed they want, though.


Missouri (16-4) (4-3) RPI 41 SoS 95
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 124, 1-0 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 152/82
Quality wins:  UCLA, @NC St?  @Arkansas perhaps
Bad losses:  Georgia, @Vandy
Mizzou is 3rd by default, I guess.  Win over UCLA has some mileage, but they need resume heft.  And maybe more importantly, need separation from the rest of the SEC.

Tennessee (12-7) (4-3) RPI 44 SoS 11
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 33, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 149/50
Quality wins:  Virginia, N-Xavier, @LSU, Ole Miss
Bad losses:  N-UTEP, Texas A&M, NC St?
At least UT scheduled up, which gets them to the top of the heap for the time being.  They have two legitimate wins as of right now, which gets them an ounce of separation.  Their fate is ahead of them.

LSU (13-6) (4-3) RPI 53 SoS 50
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 85, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 140/61
Quality wins:  Kentucky, Missouri, N-St Joe’s
Bad losses:  Rhode Island, @Bama
Their ace in the hole for the time being is good home wins to lean on.  They’ve got bad losses and some wins of marginal value, just like everyone else.  Getting the Kentucky game in the hip pocket may be the difference, for now at least.

Ole Miss (14-6) (5-2) RPI 56 SoS 78
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 170/71
Quality wins:  LSU at home?
Bad losses:  @Mississippi St, perhaps Dayton and Mercer
The resume says this is not a tournament team, plain and simple.  Go get a win of note.

Arkansas (13-7) (2-5) RPI 86 SoS 80
Vital signs:  1-5 R/N, non-con SoS 190, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 200/65
Quality wins:  Kentucky, N-Minnesota, SMU, Clemson
Bad losses:  @Georgia, @Texas A&M
Boy, if they could just not be inept on the road.  The quality of the wins are the only thing keeping it clinging to the bubble.

EIEIO watch
Georgia (10-9) (4-3) RPI 132 SoS 84
Mississippi St (13-7) (3-4) RPI 147 SoS 196
Texas A&M (12-8) (3-4) RPI 152 SoS 142
Vanderbilt (11-8) (3-4) RPI 76 SoS 56 – I don’t even feel good projecting any of these four teams in the NIT, hell.

No postseason
Alabama (8-11) (3-4)
Auburn (9-9) (1-6)
South Carolina (8-12) (1-6)


Conference championship watch
Chattanooga (11-9) (8-1) RPI 217 SoS 329
Davidson (10-11) (7-1) RPI 145 SoS 122

I suppose others have a shot at this, but I’m not excited about any of them.  And frankly, neither am I about Chattanooga, with no Top 150 win.  Davidson at least won @Charlotte and N-Georgia.  Meh.  This conference is careening towards Dayton no matter what.

I guess I could project other postseason teams; a few are straddling around .500 when you include non D1 games.  But nope.  Serve your penance for now.

No postseason
Western Carolina (9-11) (5-3)
Wofford (8-10) (5-3)
Elon (9-10) (4-3)
UNC Greensboro (8-12) (4-4)
Georgia Southern (7-12) (3-4)
Samford (6-13) (3-4)
Appalachian St (2-14) (2-5)
Furman (5-12) (1-6)
Citadel (1-18) (0-8)


Conference championship watch
Stephen F Austin (17-2) (8-0) RPI 93 SoS 338
Sam Houston St (13-6) (7-2) RPI 119 SoS 283

Really, it’s SFA and then everyone else.  SFA has their typical garbage schedule with no quality wins of note, so please don’t get carried away with that record or even that RPI.  In fact, no one in this conference is doing a darn thing.

Note:  some sites are counting IW and ACU in the RPI and others aren’t, some count them as D1 and some don’t.  There may be discrepancies in all of these numbers, but they’re close enough for your purposes.

EIEIO watch
Nicholls St (8-8) (6-2) RPI 219 SoS 308

No postseason
Texas A&M-CC (8-12) (6-3)
* New Orleans (6-9) (5-4)
Oral Roberts (8-11) (4-4)
Northwestern St (6-11) (4-4)
McNeese St (4-14) (4-4)
SE Louisiana (7-11) (4-5)
Central Arkansas (5-14) (2-6)
Lamar (3-18) (2-7)
Houston Baptist (3-17) (1-8)
* Incarnate Word (4-4) (4-3)
* Abilene Christian (1-13) (1-6)


Conference championship watch
Southern (8-10) (7-1) RPI 191 SoS 222
Alabama St (8-7) (5-2) RPI 268 SoS 351

I don’t care about the SWAC and neither should you.

No postseason
Texas Southern (8-10) (5-2)
Alcorn St (5-12) (5-3)
Prairie View A&M (5-13) (4-3)
Jackson St (7-12) (3-4)
Alabama A&M (4-11) (3-4)
* Mississippi Valley St (3-14) (2-5)
* Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-15) (2-5)
* Grambling (0-14) (0-7)



North Dakota St (13-5) (5-1) RPI 42 SoS 97
Vital signs:  8/4 R/N, non-con SoS 24, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 1-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 175/99
Quality wins:  @Notre Dame, Delaware?
Bad losses:  @N Dak, @IPFW?
Throwing NDSU a bone here, with that shiny non-con SoS and road win at ND.  I doubt this ends well for them, but we’ll let them on the board for now.

EIEIO watch
IPFW (14-6) (5-1) RPI 138 SoS 300 – A modicum of respect to IPFW for a nice season so far.

No postseason
South Dakota St (8-10) (3-3)
Denver (9-11) (3-3)
Western Illinois (6-12) (3-3)
South Dakota (6-12) (3-3)
* Nebraska-Omaha (10-9) (2-4)
IUPUI (2-18) (0-6)

Sun Belt

Conference championship watch

Georgia St (12-6) (7-0) RPI 84 SoS 211
Western Kentucky (13-7) (6-2) RPI 113 SoS 174

If you’re wondering, GSU didn’t do anything of note outside of the conference, so don’t get carried away.  WKU did beat Southern Miss on the road so I’m still betting on them.  Expect madness, like every year, in this conference tournament.  GSU’s lead means nothing.

EIEIO watch
Arkansas St (10-8) (4-4) RPI 190 SoS 289 – Well, odds are there’ll be a 3rd postseason team…

No postseason
Arkansas-Little Rock (9-10) (6-3)
Texas-Arlington (7-11) (4-4)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-9) (4-4)
Louisiana-Lafayette (9-9) (3-5) – They actually won at La Tech and looked competent for a bit.
Texas St (4-14) (2-5)
Troy (5-13) (2-6)
South Alabama (4-13) (1-6)



Gonzaga (18-3) (9-1) RPI 23 SoS 89
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 139/92
Quality wins:  BYU, St Mary’s, NMSU…N-Arkansas…
Bad losses:  @Portland
Maybe this is an aggressive lock.  I can’t imagine this team screwing things up enough to miss the tournament, though.  Their seed won’t be great, however.  Not a lot of success away from home; there’s some empty calories in this profile that usually aren’t there.


BYU (13-9) (6-4) RPI 46 SoS 22
Vital signs:  5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 5, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 142/71
Quality wins:  N-Texas, @Stanford
Bad losses:  @Utah, @Pepperdine, @Loyola Marymount, @Portland…sigh
That shining non-con SoS keeps it alive, along with a couple of wins that at least have to be respected.  However, as you can see, the road in the WCC may be a problem here.

St Mary’s (15-6) (6-3) RPI 51 SoS 72
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/139
Quality wins:  NDSU, @Boise, La Tech
Bad losses:  4 outside the top 125
You can’t lose all these marginal games like Mason, Santa Clara, @San Diego, when you just don’t have high end wins to balance them out.  This is starting to look like a solid miss.

NIT watch
San Francisco (12-8) (7-3) RPI 89 SoS 79 – 2nd in the WCC!  If you’re wondering, no top 100 wins.

EIEIO watch
Pepperdine (11-10) (5-5) RPI 130 SoS 130
San Diego (11-10) (4-6) RPI 142 SoS 157
Portland (12-10) (4-6) RPI 161 SoS 123

No postseason
Loyola Marymount (10-11) (3-7)
Santa Clara (8-13) (3-7)
Pacific (10-9) (2-7)


Conference championship watch
Utah Valley (11-7) (7-0) RPI 151 SoS 262
New Mexico St (15-7) (5-2) RPI 72 SoS 139

In a major upset, NMSU is 2 down to another team!  I have no idea if this will last.  Actually, I do.  UVU hasn’t played NMSU yet and their signature win is Weber St at home.  This situation should correct.

While NMSU did win at New Mexico, UTEP, and Hawaii, bad bad road losses to UMKC and Chicago St have ended any faint hopes of an at-large.

No postseason
Grand Canyon (7-10) (5-2)
Chicago St (7-12) (4-3)
UMKC (7-12) (4-3)
Idaho (7-13) (2-5)
Texas-Pan American (5-16) (2-5)
Seattle (7-10) (1-5)
Cal St Bakersfield (7-13) (1-6)

And a special shoutout to independent NJIT (8-14), who’s going nowhere.