Sunday, January 27, 2019

S-CURVE 1/28

- Is it just me, or do the top 2 lines seem really straightforward?
- I was doing fine, finding teams I more or less liked...then I got to the 10 line.  It gets ugly quickly from there.
- SEC is in its best timeline, with 8 teams in.  I would hammer the under if I had to bet on that.
- Pac-12 is in its darkest timeline, with the Arizona schools ejected outta there.  One bit of good news is I see Washington climbing the board, which means they can afford to dole out a couple signature wins to some bubble teams next month.
- A-10 is starting to approach its own darkest timeline.  They're forced to rep George Mason this week, which can't help things.
- By the way, there's some conferences who have no business being on the 14 line, being stuck on the 14 line right now
- Screw it, we're giving the SoCon an at-large bid this week.  We also see Wofford and Murray St well inside the cutline (as conference champs right now), but I wouldn't think much of it.  One loss will crater them pretty hard.

The 1 line:  Tennessee, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Kansas
The 3 line:  Texas Tech, North Carolina, Marquette, Nevada
The 4 line:  Purdue, Houston, Villanova, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Louisville, Virginia Tech, LSU, Wisconsin
The 6 line:  Buffalo, Oklahoma, Maryland, Iowa
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Florida St, Kansas St
The 8 line:  Washington, Auburn, TCU, North Carolina St
The 9 line:  Ohio St, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Syracuse
The 10 line:  Minnesota, Wofford, Murray St, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  St John's, Baylor, Indiana, Alabama
The 12 line:  Florida, Central Florida, VCU, UNC-Greensboro, Hofstra, Lipscomb
The 13 line:  Yale, Northern Kentucky, Texas St, Vermont
The 14 line:  Grand Canyon, George Mason, UAB, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, UC-Irvine, Radford, Bucknell
The 16 line:  Northern Colorado, Rider, Robert Morris, Sam Houston St, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
St John's

Last 4 in:
Central Florida

Last 4 out:
Arizona St
Utah St

Next 4 out:

Bubble inception - we have to go deeper (these teams have possible, but not probable, paths to an at-large bid):
San Francisco
St Louis

Current NIT bubble starts here (probably too far off the board to be relevant, but historically, there's always a team that comes rocketing out of this group into the field in February):
Oregon St
St Mary's
East Tennessee St
Fresno St
North Texas

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big 12 7
Big East 4
A-10 2
SoCon 2
Pac-12 1

1/25 - 1/27 recap

Michigan 69, @Indiana 46
Illinois 78, @Maryland 67 - your dumb loss of the weekend
Ohio St 70, @Nebraska 60 - and Nebraska isn't as safe as people think.  Big road win for OSU
@Wisconsin 62, Northwestern 46
Rutgers 64, @Penn St 60
@Purdue 73, Michigan St 63 - big deal for seeding purposes.  MSU to the 2 line?  Purdue way up?  I think it's fine to overreact on this result
@Minnesota 92, Iowa 87 - Minny doing the minimum to stay in the bubble race

@Duke 66, Georgia Tech 53
Virginia 82, Notre Dame 55
@Virginia Tech 78, Syracuse 56
@NC State 69, Clemson 67
@Louisville 66, Pitt 51
BC 65, @Wake 61
Florida St 78, @Miami 66

Big East:
@Creighton 75, Butler 61
Marquette 87, @Xavier 82
@Villanova 80, Seton Hall 52
@Providence 70, DePaul 67
Georgetown 89, @St John's 78 - now it's time to start worrying about the Big East.  Nova and MU are fine, but it's a real challenge to find a 3rd team right now.  They'll get 3 bids minimum, because someone has to win all these conference games....but good luck figuring out which team that'll be right now

SEC/Big 12 made for TV event:
@Tennessee 83, West Virginia 66
@Kentucky 71, Kansas 63 - a win that should have significant value, even as a home win
@Texas Tech 67, Arkansas 64
Iowa St 87, @Ole Miss 73 - I'm starting to think Ole Miss isn't as safe as people think
@TCU 55, Florida 50
@Baylor 73, Alabama 68
@Georgia 98, Texas 88 - looks like Baylor will be playing the role of Big 12 bubble team, not Texas
@Oklahoma St 74, South Carolina 70 - as a whole, challenge was a net positive to the Big 12, but the only teams really hurt were Texas and Alabama....and they had road losses so the damage isn't too bad
@Texas A&M 65, Kansas St 53 - the one loss that's a bit dicey, but I think KSU will be fine
@Oklahoma 86, Vandy 55

@Mississippi St 92, Auburn 84
LSU 86, @Missouri 80

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Washington 79, @Oregon St 69 - we found a trustworthy Pac-12 team!
Utah 82, @Cal 64
@Stanford 75, Colorado 62
@USC 69, Arizona St 67 - oh no
@UCLA 90, Arizona 69 - oh no.  We may have a 1-bid Pac-12 in the near future.  I don't expect it to stick.....but for now, it's there
@Oregon 78, Washington St 58

Davidson 54, @St Louis 53 - bad week for SLU.  Good win for Davidson
VCU 80, @Duquesne 74 - and a solid road win here.  A-10 is still on the knife's edge with being a 2-bid league or 1-bid league.  Not sure which direction it'll go

Houston 77, @Tulsa 65
Cincinnati 72, @Temple 68 - a big, big win to stabilize Cincy's status, but equally devastating to Temple's chances
@Memphis 77, UCF 57 - and so the 3rd and 4th best teams in the conference lose, de-stabilizing their at-large chances a little bit

Buffalo 88, @Kent St 79 - Buffalo back in front as Bowling Green loses

Utah St 68, @New Mexico 66
@Colorado St 74, Fresno St 65 - a stumble that can't be afforded for whatever little at-large chance remained

Samford 75, @Furman 73 - ok, time to finally abandon the Furman bandwagon.  It was fun while it lasted guys
@UNCG 88, Mercer 81

@San Diego 67, San Fran 63 - we've reached the endgame on the WCC's multi-bid chances

Vermont 73, @Stony Brook 52 - Vermont in control of AEast

Saturday, January 26, 2019

1/21 - 1/24 recap

@Michigan St 69, Maryland 55 - a quality win, but no real change in either team's forecast
@Rutgers 76, Nebraska 69 - stupid loss of the week
@Michigan 59, Minnesota 57 - I dropped them to the 2 line recently...really they're a 1 seed IMO, and it's just a case of no room at the inn on the 1 line right now.  I think there's room for two B1G teams on the 1 line if push comes to shove
@Northwestern 73, Indiana 66 - time to legitimately worry about Indiana.  Remember, the B1G is deep, it'll be really easy for UI to finish 12th or something and really ruin a resume
Purdue 79, @Ohio St 67
Wisconsin 72, @Illinois 60
Michigan St 82, @Iowa 67 - Spartans comin'

Big 12:
@Kansas 80, Iowa St 76 - KU just feels like a 2 seed this year, don't they?
Baylor 85, @West Virginia 73 - road wins are never trivial
@Kansas St 58, Texas Tech 45
@TCU 65, Texas 61
Oklahoma 70, @Oklahoma St 61 - confidence in my Big 12 forecast is increasing.  6 teams in the lockbox, and Texas/Baylor playing down to the bubble

@North Carolina 103, Virginia Tech 82 - I can see VT lagging behind the top 3 teams in the ACC a a 4 seed their reasonable ceiling?  I think so
Duke 79, @Pittsburgh 64
@Virginia 68, Wake Forest 45
@Georgia Tech 63, Notre Dame 61
@Florida St 77, Clemson 68
@Louisville 84, NC State 77 - both teams in good shape, this is more of a status quo result for both teams
@Syracuse 73, Miami 53

Big East:
Creighton 91, @Georgetown 87
Villanova 80, @Butler 72
@Marquette 79, DePaul 69
Providence 64, @Xavier 62

@Kentucky 76, Mississippi St 55
@South Carolina 80, Auburn 77 - okay, now it's time to really start dropping Auburn down the board
@Alabama 74, Ole Miss 53 - important service hold for Bama's at-large chances.  They seem to be the one SEC really on that bubble, and Ole Miss is ahead of it for now
@Florida 81, Texas A&M 72
Tennessee 88, @Vanderbilt 83 (OT)
@LSU 92, Georgia 82
@Arkansas 72, Missouri 60

@Houston 94, East Carolina 50
UCF 75, @Tulane 50
@Cincinnati 88, Tulsa 64
@Temple 85, Memphis 76 - I'm feeling more confident that between the 4 contenders, the AAC will get 3 in

@Rhode Island 71, VCU 65 - not an easy ask, but it's still a loss VCU and the A-10 as a whole really can't afford
@Duquesne 77, St Louis 73 - ditto. 
@Davidson 73, George Washington 62

@Northern Illinois 77, Buffalo 75 - oof
@Kent St 87, Toledo 85 (OT) - it was already probably endgame for Toledo's at-large chances, but this should just about do it.  MAC is actually pretty strong at the top, it seems

@Fresno St 66, San Diego St 62
@Nevada 100, Colorado St 60

Gonzaga 98, @Santa Clara 39 - lol
@San Francisco 83, Portland 61

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Washington 61, @Oregon 56 - well we're going to have 1 lock in UW before too long
@USC 80, Arizona 57 - and so much for Arizona being on that same level
@Oregon St 90, Washington St 77
Arizona St 84, @UCLA 73

- Vermont absorbs a loss to UMBC, Stony Brook now leads alone at 5-0.  Don't see an at-large coming despite a shiny W-L record though
- another clean week for Liberty and Lipscomb; they play twice yet and if one sweeps, we're going to have to discuss at-large
- Hofstra is now 3 games clear in the Colonial.  Sheesh, what happened to that conference
- CUSA is a mess.  Everyone already has at least two losses, and between ODU, Marshall, UAB, and North Texas, this conference has 4 teams just outside the NIT bubble
- Bowling Green is the last undefeated team in the MAC.  okay
- Belmont beats Murray St on the road.  Tough to make the case for Murray without seriously running the table, because the OVC isn't very good behind them
- SoCon.  Wofford 8-0, UNCG 7-1, ETSU 6-2, Furman 5-3.  Those 4 need to continue separating from the rest of the league

Monday, January 21, 2019


A first pass at geography this year.  It's still a bit early, so don't read too much into it, but it's a good first glance.

I had to move Nevada out of the West regional for balance.  Something to watch if Gonzaga or Nevada end up at the end of a seed line (i.e., last 2 seed, last 3 seed).  If that happens, the NCAA committee will be really boxed in.  It's actually better for those two teams to be the first team on the 3 line than the last team on the 2 line, IMO.  Because the weakest 1 seed will almost certainly be sent west.

Also, Tennessee is close to both Columbia and Columbus....Duke and UVa going for Columbia....Michigan/Michigan St want Columbus.  Not everyone will get what they want.  A chase within the chase to watch.

1) Tennessee vs. 16) Rider/Prairie View A&M
8) Indiana vs. 9) Syracuse
4) Virginia Tech vs. 13) Liberty
5) Purdue vs. 12) St Louis
@San Jose
3) Nevada vs. 14) Radford
6) Oklahoma vs. 11) Arizona
@Des Moines
2) Michigan vs. 15) UC Santa Barbara
7) Florida St vs. 10) Seton Hall

1) Virginia vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Iowa vs. 9) TCU
@San Jose
4) Villanova vs. 13) Loyola(Chi)
5) Auburn vs. 12) Minnesota/Arizona St
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Texas St
6) Louisville vs. 11) Murray St
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Ole Miss vs. 10) Washington

1) Michigan St vs. 16) Weber St
8) North Carolina St vs. 9) Kansas St
@Salt Lake City
4) Houston vs. 13) Grand Canyon
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Hofstra
3) North Carolina vs. 14) Northern Kentucky
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Texas
2) Kansas vs. 15) Princeton
7) Nebraska vs. 10) Central Florida

1) Duke vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Mississippi St vs. 9) Ohio St
4) Maryland vs. 13) Vermont
5) Buffalo vs. 12) VCU/Butler
3) Marquette vs. 14) Marshall
6) LSU vs. 11) Wofford
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Bucknell
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) St John's

S-CURVE 1/21

The 1 line:  Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St, Virginia
The 2 line:  Michigan, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky
The 3 line:  Texas Tech, North Carolina, Marquette, Nevada
The 4 line:  Maryland, Virginia Tech, Houston, Villanova
The 5 line:  Buffalo, Purdue, Iowa St, Auburn
The 6 line:  Oklahoma, Louisville, Wisconsin, LSU
The 7 line:  Nebraska, Cincinnati, Florida St, Ole Miss
The 8 line:  Iowa, Mississippi St, North Carolina St, Indiana
The 9 line:  TCU, Syracuse, Kansas St, Ohio St
The 10 line:  St John's, Central Florida, Washington, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  Wofford, Arizona, Murray St, Texas
The 12 line:  VCU, Butler, Minnesota, St Louis, Arizona St, Hofstra
The 13 line:  Liberty, Vermont, Loyola(Chi), Grand Canyon
The 14 line:  Texas St, Marshall, Northern Kentucky, Radford
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, UC Santa Barbara, Princeton, Bucknell
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Weber St, Rider, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Seton Hall

Last 4 in:
Arizona St

Last 4 out:
UNC Greensboro
San Francisco

Next 4 out:
North Texas
Utah St

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big 12 7
Big East 5
Pac-12 3
A-10 2

1/18 - 1/20 recap

@Duke 72, Virginia 70 - it's hard to see many permutations where both teams don't end up on the 1 line right now
@Virginia Tech 87, Wake 71
UNC 85, @Miami 76
NC State 77, @Notre Dame 73
@Syracuse 74, Pitt 63
Louisville 79, @GT 51
@BC 87, FSU 82 - um, don't get too much deeper in the conference standings, FSU

Maryland 75, @Ohio St 61
Northwestern 65, @Rutgers 57
@Wisconsin 64, Michigan 54 - still a fair amount of wiggle room before UM loses a 1 seed in my book
@Purdue 70, Indiana 55
@Minnesota 65, Penn St 64
@Iowa 95, Illinois 71

@Villanova 85, Xavier 75
@Butler 80, St John's 71
DePaul 97, @Seton Hall 93 - all these results aren't great for the BE bubble teams.  This is how you end up with the minimum number of at-large bids possible by March
@Marquette 79, Provi 68

Big 12:
@West Virginia 65, Kansas 64 - we're used to seeing Kansas with a sterling resume despite a few losses....this year might be the year they don't get to the top line with a 6 or 7 loss year
@Baylor 73, Texas Tech 62 - not the greatest weekend for the Big 12's hopes for the 1 line
@Texas 75, Oklahoma 72 - UT looks like our nominal Big 12 bubble team this year
@Kansas St 65, TCU 55
@Iowa St 72, Oklahoma St 59

@Tennessee 71, Alabama 68
Kentucky 82, @Auburn 80
@Ole Miss 84, Arkansas 67
Mississippi St 71, @Vandy 55
Florida 62, @Georgia 52
Missouri 66, @Texas A&M 43
@LSU 89, South Carolina 67 - finally USC loses a league game.  For the most part, we're seeing better road teams beating bad home teams in this conference so far.  Will be a pretty empty bubble for the conference if this holds

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Stanford 78, @Wazzu 66
@USC 80, UCLA 67
@Washington 71, Cal 52
@Arizona 82, Oregon St 71
@Arizona St 78, Oregon 64 - Pac-12 keeps its nose clean this weekend at least
@Utah 78, Colorado 69

Houston 69, @USF 60 - road wins are never trivial
@UCF 64, Tulsa 62
Cincinnati 66, @Wichita St 55

@St Louis 68, St Joe's 57
@Davidson 75, Richmond 62
@VCU 68, UMass 50
Dayton 89, @St Bonaventure 86 (2OT) - service holds for all our A-10 contenders

Gonzaga 89, @Portland 66
@St Mary's 76, San Diego 59 - SMU sneaking up towards 2nd best in the league, but they don't have an at-large profile this year
@San Fran 82, BYU 63

UNC Greensboro 75, @ETSU 68
@Wofford 59, Furman 54 - FU is 4-3 in the league after being ranked....yikes.  Wofford and UNCG seem like the two best teams, and they might separate

@Buffalo 77, Eastern Michigan 65
@Nevada 67, Air Force 52
Fresno St 63, @Boise St 53
Penn 77, @Temple 70 - what the hell, Penn.  What the hell are you doing this season

Look around the leagues:
Vermont and Stony Brook win....both 2 games clear in the loss column in the A-East
Weber St has poked its head out front by 1 game in the Big Sky
Radford the last undefeated in the Big South
UCSB the last undefeated in the Big West
Hofstra now clear by 2 games in the Colonial
Marshall is the last undefeated in CUSA.  North Texas trapped 0.5 GB for now
Rider is 2 clear in the loss column in the MAAC, but the entire conference is garbage this year
Bowling Green, somehow, is the other undefeated team in the MAC
Robert Morris clear by 1 game in the NEC
Murray St and...Jacksonville St?  are your two 6-0 teams in the OVC.  Belmont 2 back
Bucknell beats Lehigh to take early control of the Patriot
Sam Houston St the last undefeated in the Southland
South Dakota St and Omaha co-lead the Summit
Texas St and Georgia St co-lead the Fun Belt
The WAC race might be sneaky-good.  Tie in the loss column between NMSU, Grand Canyon, CSUB.  I have no idea who's actually good among these teams

Saturday, January 19, 2019

1/14 - 1/17 recap

We're moving to bi-weekly, at least for January.  Deal with it

Syracuse 95, @Duke 91 - what I'm curious of is how NET deals with player absences.  Even still, this should stand as a signature win to put them comfortably in the field right now
@Pittsburgh 75, Florida St 62 - I thought Pitt was terrible, so I'm not sure whether this one is them being better than I thought or just a bad FSU game
@Virginia 81, Virginia Tech 59
@North Carolina 75, Notre Dame 69
@Wake Forest 71, NC State 67 - here's another dicey road loss by a probable at-large team.  It's tough to get a top 4 seed with these things on your resume
@Louisville 80, BC 70
@Clemson 72, GT 60

@Maryland 64, Wisconsin 60
Nebraska 66, @Indiana 51 - quality road wins get you a gold star
@Purdue 89, Rutgers 54
Iowa 89, @Penn St 82
@Illinois 95, Minnesota 68 - dumb loss of the week
Michigan St 70, @Nebraska 64 - still a good week for Nebraska overall

@Tennessee 106, Arkansas 87
Kentucky 69, @Georgia 49
LSU 83, @Ole Miss 69
@Mississippi St 71, Florida 68
Auburn 85, @Texas A&M
South Carolina 74, @Vandy 71
Alabama 70, @Mizzou 60 - is it just me, or is the SEC sorting itself into haves and have nots quickly?  Feeling better about Bama and LSU and the Mississippis, Arky falling off the board...seems like they're setting up for a solid 7 bids this year

Marquette 74, @Georgetown 71
@Providence 72, Seton Hall 63
@St John's 81, Creighton 66 - CU about to be the one BE bubble team taken off the board
Butler 87, @DePaul 69

Big 12:
@Kansas 80, Texas 78
Baylor 73, @Oklahoma St 69
@TCU 98, West Virginia 67
Iowa St 68, @Texas Tech 64
Kansas St 74, @Oklahoma 61 - feels like the Big 12 is slowly separating into 6 haves, 3 have-nots, and 1 bubble team.  Which sounds about right for the conference, given its non-con profile

Nevada 72, @Boise St 71

@Cincinnati 82, USF 74
Houston 69, @SMU 58
@Tulsa 89, UConn 83 - all in all, both teams are probably going to be short of the tournament
Temple 85, @ECU 74
@Wichita St 75, UCF 67 - not a dicey loss by any means....but the AAC 2.5 bids is a fun over/under bet to place right now.  Don't know which way I'd go

St Louis 63, @Fordham 60
@St Joe's 61, Davidson 60 - first misstep in the A-10 for Davidson
@VCU 76, Dayton 71

@Gonzaga 73, Loyola Marymount 55
San Fran 53, @Pacific 52

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Oregon 59, @Arizona 54 - sigh
@Washington 80, Stanford 64
@Arizona St 70, Oregon St 67

Buffalo 88, @Western Michigan 79
Lipscomb 70, @NJIT 52 - LU has a shiny NET rating.  We might have to discuss their at-large chances if they run the A-Sun table.  It's do-able
@Jacksonville St 91, Belmont 80 (OT) - the OVC is clearly Murray St's now

Monday, January 14, 2019

S-CURVE 1/14

I would say this isn't quite vetted to my usual level of precision, but I feel good about these as big-picture projections.  Remember, we're still in mid-January, so I still bake in some conference bias into the projections.  Some specific thoughts:

1) The Pac-12 is in real, real trouble.  Their computer numbers are even more terrible than I thought.  I'm giving them 2 back-end spots thinking they'll eventually get there, but man.  It's going to be a chore just to get a 2nd team in.
2) I'm going there with the SoCon for now.  There should be enough quality win chances between the top 4 to create an at-large environment for someone.
3) Big 10 is going to put 10 teams in, and you're all going to have to deal with it.
4) This feels like the low end for projections for the ACC, with 8 teams in.

Reminder:  I take conference leaders (ties broken by NET).  This means there's a few messed up situations:
- Sorry, North Texas.  UTSA's got you for now
- Boise leads the Mountain West.  Nevada is in as an at-large team this time around
- Detroit Mercy over NKU feels violently wrong, as does Valpo over Loyola and UMKC over NMSU.  Horizon, WAC, and MVC lose multiple seed lines as a result.

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee
The 2 line:  Gonzaga, Michigan St, Texas Tech, Kansas
The 3 line:  Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Nevada, Kentucky
The 4 line:  North Carolina, Houston, Indiana, Marquette
The 5 line:  Maryland, Villanova, Florida St, Buffalo
The 6 line:  Auburn, North Carolina St, Iowa, Ole Miss
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Louisville
The 8 line:  TCU, Iowa St, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
The 9 line:  Ohio St, LSU, Syracuse, Minnesota,
The 10 line:  Purdue, St John's, Central Florida, St Louis
The 11 line:  Kansas St, Arizona, Furman, Davidson, Arizona St, Washington
The 12 line:  Wofford, Murray St, Liberty, Hofstra
The 13 line:  UC-Irvine, South Dakota St, Vermont, Boise St
The 14 line:  Georgia St, Valparaiso, Princeton, Texas-San Antonio
The 15 line:  Weber St, Radford, Lehigh, Rider
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Wagner, Detroit Mercy, UMKC, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
St John's
Central Florida
Kansas St

Last 4 in:
Arizona St

Last 4 out:

Next 4 out:
North Texas
San Francisco
Fresno St

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big 12 6
Big East 4
Pac-12 3
A-10 2
SoCon 2

Sunday, January 13, 2019

1/13 recap

@Michigan 80, Northwestern 60
Michigan St 71, @Penn St 56

@Xavier 70, Butler 69
Villanova 90, @Creighton 78 - developing storyline:  all these Big East bubble teams are starting to absorb too many losses

@South Carolina 85, Missouri 75
@UCF 76, East Carolina 65
@Oregon 81, USC 60
@Oregon St 79, UCLA 66

1/12 recap

@Davidson 64, VCU 57
St Louis 71, @LaSalle 64

Duke 80, @Florida St 78 - Duke is in a spot where they can absorb a couple losses and still be fine for the 1 line
Virginia 63, @Clemson 43
Louisville 83, @North Carolina 62 - some separation in resume between Duke/UVa and UNC now
@NC State 86, Pitt 80
@Notre Dame 69, BC 66
@Miami 76, Wake 65
Georgia Tech 73, @Syracuse 59 - dumb loss right here

@Houston 79, Wichita St 70
@Temple 82, USF 80 (OT)
@SMU 77, Tulsa 57
@Cincy 74, UConn 72 - some close shaves here, but the conference is making incremental steps towards ensuring 3 bids

Kansas 73, @Baylor 68
Texas Tech 68, @Texas 62
Kansas St 58, @Iowa St 57
@Oklahoma 76, TCU 74
Oklahoma St 85, @WVU 77

@Marquette 70, Seton Hall 66
DePaul 79, @St John's 71 - SJU is quickly becoming my nightmare team of trying to figure out how to handle them
@Georgetown 96, Provi 90 (2OT)

@Iowa 72, Ohio St 62
@Minnesota 88, Rutgers 70

@UTSA 76, North Texas 74 - UNT's 2nd loss on the of difficulty for them being at-large relevant was always high though

@Buffalo 88, Miami(OH) 64

Nevada 74, @Fresno St 64 - Nevada gets by the biggest game on the schedule

@Stanford 85, Arizona St 71 - dammit
@Utah 88, Washington St 70
Washington 77, @Colorado 70
Arizona 87, @Cal 65

Tennessee 78, @Florida 67
@Auburn 93, Georgia 78
Ole Miss 81, Mississippi St 77 - okay, we're taking Ole Miss real seriously now
@Kentucky 56, Vandy
Texas A&M 81, @Alabama 80
LSU 94, @Arkansas 88

@UNC Greensboro 89, Furman 79 - Furman with 2 losses in the SoCon....Wofford out to 6-0, ETSU 5-1, UNCG 4-1, FU 4-2.  I'm hyped for this race still

Gonzaga 96, @San Fran 83 - SFU's best chance at a signature win goes by the boards.  By the way, with LMU punting a game at home to St Mary's and San Diego losing again, the multi-bid WCC dream is fading fast

Friday, January 11, 2019

1/11 recap

Purdue 84, @Wisconsin 80 (OT)
@Maryland 78, Indiana 75 - someone slap some sense into Delany.  Stop playing Friday league games.  You're an idiot Delany.

That's all I got today.  NKU beat Wright St in a game that looked a lot better before WSU struggled.  And the MAAC played some games.  They're 29th in NET.  Yikes.

1/10 recap

service holds:
Michigan 79, @Illinois 69
@Gonzaga 67, Pacific 36
@UConn 76, SMU 64
Cincinnati 70, @Tulsa 65 (OT) - not sure Tulsa would be a bad loss by any means, but a bullet dodged by Cincy.  AAC teams won't want to lose much to the bottom two-thirds of this conference
@Nebraska 70, Penn St 64

Hofstra 93, @William & Mary 90 (3OT)
Drexel 79, @Charleston 78 - I thought Charleston was the best in the league, time to transfer that over to Hofstra

Pac-12 fail tracker:
@Colorado 90, Washington St 60
UCLA 87, @Oregon 84
Washington 69, @Utah 53
@Oregon St 79, USC 74 (OT) - okay, I do think we're seeing just a little bit of definition for the conference now.  I feel like the two Arizona schools will eventually be ok, and I feel okay about Washington as well.  UCLA and OSU will have fighting chances at the bubble....I think they might squeak out 3 bids.  Still betting the under on 2.5, and I think the doomsday scenario of 1 is off the board for now

SoCon watch:
Wofford 72, @UNC Greensboro 43 - a hammering by Wofford, UNCG takes its first loss and Wofford is alone at 5-0.  Furman, and ETSU are 1 GB.  And it's way early, but it looks like these 4 have separated from the rest of the conference for now.  Wofford is net 33, Furman 55, ETSU 58, UNCG 88.  A very real chance for an at-large bid if they can maintain those, as they'll get a small handful of Group 1 wins apiece.  Nothing more than a chance, I'd say, but a chance.

Thursday, January 10, 2019

1/9 recap

Virginia 83, @Boston College 56
Virginia Tech 52, @Georgia Tech 49
@Florida St 68, Miami 62
@Pittsburgh 89, Louisville 86 (OT) - the type of game bubble teams lose on the road often
@Syracuse 61, Clemson 53

@Rutgers 64, Ohio St 61 - this is a dumb, dumb loss to absorb
Iowa 73, @Northwestern 63

@Kansas 77, TCU 68
@Kansas St 71, West Virginia 69

@Ole Miss 82, Auburn 67 - I'm kind of confused by the idea of taking Ole Miss seriously, to be honest
@Georgia 82, Vanderbilt 63
Florida 57, @Arkansas 51

Marquette 106, @Creighton 104 (OT) - looks like I'll be able to elevate Marquette above the bubble....this conference is still going to have a whole mess of teams on the bubble the entire year.  Not looking forward to sorting them out
@Xavier 81, Georgetown 75 - a reminder that GU isn't there yet
@Seton Hall 76, Butler 75

@Temple 73, Houston 69 - UH was probably gonna lose somewhere, and this is as good a spot as any for the league.  The bubbliest team in the conference gets a signature win

Arizona St 80, @Cal 66 - hell, any semi-competent result in the Pac-12 is worth celebrating
Arizona 75, @Stanford 70 - I'm starting to feel that maybe, just maybe, we can trust Arizona to be the 2nd team out of the Pac-12

@Nevada 92, San Jose St 53
Fresno St 78, @Utah St 77 - it appears Fresno is the main challenger to Nevada this season

Davidson 61, @George Mason 56
@St Louis 65, UMass 62

Wednesday, January 9, 2019

1/8 recap

Duke 87, @Wake Forest 65 - Zion Zion Zion Zion Zion Zion Zion
North Carolina 90, @NC State 82

Tennessee 87, @Missouri 63 - I like seeing good teams blowout out average teams on the road.  Good hallmark for a prospective 1 seed
@South Carolina 87, Mississippi St 82 (OT) - this is why road wins matter
@Kentucky 85, Texas A&M 74
@LSU 88, Alabama 79

@Michigan St 77, Purdue 59
Maryland 82, @Minnesota 67 - quality road win

@Texas Tech 66, Oklahoma 59
@Baylor 73, Iowa St 70 - marginal road loss
@Oklahoma St 61, Texas 58 - marginal road loss

@Villanova 76, St John's 71

@Buffalo 110, Toledo 80 - it's time to start reckless speculation on Buffalo's seed after this one.  They're big favorites in just about every game from here to the house.  Where do you seed a team whose computer profile will likely be lagging behind it's poll ranking?

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

1/7 recap

Nothing on this day, only the minnows (MEAC, MAAC, SWAC) went up against football.

Weekly brackets/S-Curves should start by this weekend on this blog.

1/6 recap

horrifying losses:
@DePaul 75, Seton Hall 74 - whoever doesn't lose at DePaul will have a leg up in the Big East bubble race, IMO

service holds:
@Michigan 74, Indiana 63
@Marquette 70, Xavier
@Houston 90, Memphis 77
Wisconsin 71, @Penn St 52
@Northwestern 68, Illinois 66
@Iowa 93, Nebraska 84
@St Louis 60, Rhode Island 53
Temple 85, @Wichita St 81 (OT)
@Louisville 90, Miami 73
@USC 77, Stanford 66

Saturday, January 5, 2019

1/5 recap

VCU 76, @Fordham 51
@Davidson 65, Duquesne 61 - probably too early for declarations, but I'll be modestly surprised if the A-10 doesn't devolve into a VCU/Davidson race

@Duke 87, Clemson 68
@Virginia 65, Florida St 52
@Virginia Tech 77, BC 66
UNC 85, @Pitt 60
Syracuse 72, @Notre Dame 62
@Georgia Tech 92, Wake 79

UCF 65, @UConn 53 - road wins are never trivial.  Trust in UCF is growing
@East Carolina 73, Cincy 71 - this is why road wins are never trivial.  Kind of a stupid loss for Cincy
@Tulsa 78, USF 75

Big 12:
@Iowa St 77, Kansas 60 - another reason road wins are never trivial
@Texas Tech 63, Kansas St 57
@Oklahoma 74, Oklahoma St 64
@TCU 85, Baylor 81
@Texas 61, West Virginia 54

Big East:
@Butler 84, Creighton 69
St John's 97, @Georgetown 94 (OT)
Villanova 65, @Providence 59

Michigan St 86, @Ohio St 77
Maryland 77, @Rutgers 63

@Princeton 68, Penn 65 (OT) - the Penn hype train is fully derailed now

Loyola 85, @Drake 74 - for those still keeping score here, Loyola might as well be handed the crown now for this conference

@New Mexico 85, Nevada 58 - what the hell happened?!?!??! I have no idea how many seed lines Nevada should lose because of this.  4?  6?  Nah, they're fine, everyone gets one.  Just don't do this again

Pac-12 fail tracker:
@Arizona 84, Utah 81 (OT) - I might trust the two Arizona schools to do good enough to at least get through the bubble
@Arizona St 83, Colorado 61
@UCLA 98, Cal 83
Oregon St 77, @Oregon 72
@Washington 85, Washington St 67 - and UW might be the third

@Tennessee 96, Georgia 50 - there's something to be said for handling your business like a 1 seed
@Alabama 77, Kentucky 75
Arkansas 73, @Texas A&M 71
South Carolina 71, @Florida 69
Ole Miss 81, @Vandy 71

all the relevant teams won.  Wofford and UNCG are your undefeateds so far

@Gonzaga 91, Santa Clara 48
San Francisco 72, @Pepperdine 69
@Loyola Marymount 76, Portland 64
@St Mary's 88, BYU 66
@San Diego 73, Pacific 64 - no upsets today to cause any tumult in the at-large status of the conference as a whole

Friday, January 4, 2019

1/4 recap

Not much on Fridays from here on in.

@Buffalo 74, Eastern Michigan 58
Ball St 79, @Toledo 64 - an early stumble from Toledo.  Ball St is good too, but I figured the best route for 2 bids for the conference was to have Toledo separate from the pack with Buffalo.  Oh well

1/3 recap

@Michigan 68, Penn St 55
@Indiana 73, Illinois 65
Minnesota 59, @Wisconsin 52 - ok I'll have to recalibrate my opinion on both teams after this one
@Purdue 86, Iowa 70

NC State 87, @Miami 82

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Utah 96, @Arizona St 86 - good grief
@Arizona 64, Colorado 56
@USC 82, Cal 73
@UCLA 92, Stanford 70

@San Francisco 76, St Mary's 72
@Santa Clara 68, San Diego 56
@Pepperdine 77, Loyola Marymount 62 - starting to feel like if a 2nd team emerges here, it'll be USF
BYU 90, @Pacific 87

@ETSU 81, Samford 72 (OT)
@Wofford 112, Citadel 81
@Furman 71, Mercer 58 - damn straight I'm branching out SoCon action to its own dedicated blurb this year.  I'm starting to wonder if they'll all beat each other up too much though

small-school upsets of note:
@Oakland 76, Northern Kentucky 74 - flesh wound for the Horizon faves
Marshall 70, @Old Dominion 67
@IPFW 104, South Dakota St 88
@North Texas 63, Louisiana Tech 59 - not an upset here; UNT seems to have ascended to CUSA favorite status
Jacksonville St 83, @Belmont 73
@Cal Baptist 82, New Mexico St 76 - WAC actually seems to have some decent teams on the top end of the conference.  Might be a fun league race

1/2 recap

Big 12:
@Kansas 70, Oklahoma 63
Texas Tech 62, @West Virginia 59 - okay, WVU is definitely not as good as I originally thought.  Road wins are a precious resource
@Iowa St 69, Oklahoma St 63
Texas 67, @Kansas St 47

@Michigan St 81, Northwestern 55
@Maryland 74, Nebraska 72 - this is why road wins are so precious

Seton Hall 80, @Xavier 70
Georgetown 84, @Butler 76 - the middle class of the Big East is not as good this year, as evidenced by 2 road wins against two probable bottom level teams
@Villanova 73, DePaul 68

@Houston 74, Tulsa 56 - I can't imagine Houston stays undefeated much longer, but I don't trust this league as a whole to challenge them
@UCF 78, Temple 73 - ok maybe UCF and Cincy can hang.  Starting to get the impression there's a chance those 3 break away from the pack
elsewhere in the league, Cincy won...USF won over UConn, but I don't trust them yet

@Nevada 72, Utah St 49 - boy, Nevada is going to boat race this conference, aren't they

@Evansville 82, Drake 77 (2OT) - the entire MVC is a mess; Drake is the only one sniffing relevancy and this makes that mission all the tougher

1/1 recap

Quiet day.

@Virginia Tech 81, Notre Dame 66

@St John's 89, Marquette 69

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

12/31 recap

Big East:
Creighton 79, @Providence 68 - still December, but when the road team wins in a game between 2 prospective bubble teams, that's always noteworthy

Monmouth 76, @Penn 74 (OT) - Monmouth improves to 1-12.  This is the dumbest loss of the entire non-conference season by any single team.  What is Penn doing?  Singlehandidly may have cost the entire Ivy League an at-large bid chance

12/30 recap

@Clemson 84, Lipscomb 67
New Mexico St 88, @Colorado St 68
Alabama 79, @Stephen F Austin 69 - the real news here is SFA getting a P6 opponent at home