Monday, January 14, 2019

S-CURVE 1/14

I would say this isn't quite vetted to my usual level of precision, but I feel good about these as big-picture projections.  Remember, we're still in mid-January, so I still bake in some conference bias into the projections.  Some specific thoughts:

1) The Pac-12 is in real, real trouble.  Their computer numbers are even more terrible than I thought.  I'm giving them 2 back-end spots thinking they'll eventually get there, but man.  It's going to be a chore just to get a 2nd team in.
2) I'm going there with the SoCon for now.  There should be enough quality win chances between the top 4 to create an at-large environment for someone.
3) Big 10 is going to put 10 teams in, and you're all going to have to deal with it.
4) This feels like the low end for projections for the ACC, with 8 teams in.

Reminder:  I take conference leaders (ties broken by NET).  This means there's a few messed up situations:
- Sorry, North Texas.  UTSA's got you for now
- Boise leads the Mountain West.  Nevada is in as an at-large team this time around
- Detroit Mercy over NKU feels violently wrong, as does Valpo over Loyola and UMKC over NMSU.  Horizon, WAC, and MVC lose multiple seed lines as a result.

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee
The 2 line:  Gonzaga, Michigan St, Texas Tech, Kansas
The 3 line:  Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Nevada, Kentucky
The 4 line:  North Carolina, Houston, Indiana, Marquette
The 5 line:  Maryland, Villanova, Florida St, Buffalo
The 6 line:  Auburn, North Carolina St, Iowa, Ole Miss
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Louisville
The 8 line:  TCU, Iowa St, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
The 9 line:  Ohio St, LSU, Syracuse, Minnesota,
The 10 line:  Purdue, St John's, Central Florida, St Louis
The 11 line:  Kansas St, Arizona, Furman, Davidson, Arizona St, Washington
The 12 line:  Wofford, Murray St, Liberty, Hofstra
The 13 line:  UC-Irvine, South Dakota St, Vermont, Boise St
The 14 line:  Georgia St, Valparaiso, Princeton, Texas-San Antonio
The 15 line:  Weber St, Radford, Lehigh, Rider
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Wagner, Detroit Mercy, UMKC, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
St John's
Central Florida
Kansas St

Last 4 in:
Arizona St

Last 4 out:

Next 4 out:
North Texas
San Francisco
Fresno St

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big 12 6
Big East 4
Pac-12 3
A-10 2
SoCon 2


HenryMuto said...

Why not just put in who you think is the best team from each of the smaller conferences. No need to just only put in the league leader especially in a tie.

HenryMuto said...

I am back into basketball full time again after the end of a long fantasy football season that did not end up with me winning any huge prize this year. I did 110 teams won 18 championships but no big scores. I was keeping an eye on college basketball when I could but hard when running so many teams.

So the NET will be interesting to see how the committee uses it for the teams.

I hope they do another Feb top 16 bracket so we get a sneak peak at how they use the NET.

Good to be back.

HenryMuto said...

No update since the 14th ?

Andrew said...

The posting every day thing is probably behind us. Until late February when I'll have to update daily, I likely won't be.