Sunday, January 27, 2019

S-CURVE 1/28

- Is it just me, or do the top 2 lines seem really straightforward?
- I was doing fine, finding teams I more or less liked...then I got to the 10 line.  It gets ugly quickly from there.
- SEC is in its best timeline, with 8 teams in.  I would hammer the under if I had to bet on that.
- Pac-12 is in its darkest timeline, with the Arizona schools ejected outta there.  One bit of good news is I see Washington climbing the board, which means they can afford to dole out a couple signature wins to some bubble teams next month.
- A-10 is starting to approach its own darkest timeline.  They're forced to rep George Mason this week, which can't help things.
- By the way, there's some conferences who have no business being on the 14 line, being stuck on the 14 line right now
- Screw it, we're giving the SoCon an at-large bid this week.  We also see Wofford and Murray St well inside the cutline (as conference champs right now), but I wouldn't think much of it.  One loss will crater them pretty hard.

The 1 line:  Tennessee, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Kansas
The 3 line:  Texas Tech, North Carolina, Marquette, Nevada
The 4 line:  Purdue, Houston, Villanova, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Louisville, Virginia Tech, LSU, Wisconsin
The 6 line:  Buffalo, Oklahoma, Maryland, Iowa
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Florida St, Kansas St
The 8 line:  Washington, Auburn, TCU, North Carolina St
The 9 line:  Ohio St, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Syracuse
The 10 line:  Minnesota, Wofford, Murray St, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  St John's, Baylor, Indiana, Alabama
The 12 line:  Florida, Central Florida, VCU, UNC-Greensboro, Hofstra, Lipscomb
The 13 line:  Yale, Northern Kentucky, Texas St, Vermont
The 14 line:  Grand Canyon, George Mason, UAB, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, UC-Irvine, Radford, Bucknell
The 16 line:  Northern Colorado, Rider, Robert Morris, Sam Houston St, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
St John's

Last 4 in:
Central Florida

Last 4 out:
Arizona St
Utah St

Next 4 out:

Bubble inception - we have to go deeper (these teams have possible, but not probable, paths to an at-large bid):
San Francisco
St Louis

Current NIT bubble starts here (probably too far off the board to be relevant, but historically, there's always a team that comes rocketing out of this group into the field in February):
Oregon St
St Mary's
East Tennessee St
Fresno St
North Texas

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big 12 7
Big East 4
A-10 2
SoCon 2
Pac-12 1


HenryMuto said...

This would be a good year to get a couple mid major at large teams like the loser of Murray State/Belmont and the losser of Wofford/other Southern Conf finals team into the dance. Sadly it just won't happen because those teams are not allowed to lose games in their conference and retain at large eligibility.

HenryMuto said...

Texas Tech seems a few spots too high. Would have North Carolina and Marquette ahead of them for sure. Just my take for now.

Bryan Wilson said...

I have a few thoughts regarding your seeds (and projections in general) in relation to my computer seed projections. I am still trying to improve my algorithm and make it act more human. It actually agrees with most of your seeds +/- one seed line other than the following:

1) I have Nevada at a 5. They have shown some weakness even in wins recently and their computer numbers have fallen. This was the only thing propping up a resume which is a bit lacking (best win @ USC?) I don't think is is good enough for a 3 seed. I would put them closer to the Buffalo camp at this point, they are very comparable.

2) I have NC State almost out of the bracket. The 350+ ranked non-con SOS has me worried. Is this irrelevant past a certain point? They are also a little lacking in the signature wins department. They also have had RPI in the 100s (I know it isn't used any more, but still alarming)

3) I have Nebraska at a 12 seed. The 3-6 league record is startling. I assume you would have them there or out of your bracket if they continued on this path and finished 8-12 or so in league play. Their kenpom rank is so high though.

4) Murray St looks more like a 13 or 14 seed by resume. They have a lot of wins, sure, but no group 1 and 2 wins, about three group 3 wins, and the rest group 4. Not sure if they have any top 100 kenpom wins yet. Does the conference strength dictate the seed this much when the resume is lacking?

5) I have Baylor at a 9 now. They are a tricky case because they have some terrible losses early but seem to have figured things out now and piled up some real quality wins.

Any insight into the discrepancy here? I am especially curious to get your take on non-con SOS and whether it has any importance any more.

Andrew said...

I think it's more likely Nevada does wind up at a 5. But at the moment with just 1 loss, I think the committee lets their human element take over. Just a hunch though. Same thing for me with Wofford and Murray St - they'll inevitably absorb a bad loss and fall back, I think. And that'll definitely happen with Greensboro.

I'm really worried that SoS is being de-emphasized. It doesn't seem to be a disqualifier anymore. The lack of signature wins will be a problem for NC State, but they've got time for that.

I'm going to laugh so hard when Nebraska makes it this year with a 7-11 league mark, after missing last year with 13-5. The metrics love 'em though, and that means NET will love them.

Again, really worried about non-con SoS. In theory, strength of opponent should be baked into the metrics for NET, so I can see the committee de-emphasizing that. But there's no way to know that yet. We're working with so many unknowns this year, I've kind of defaulted to a simpler method until we know more. I'm de-emphasizing some of these numbers (NET, SoS, kenpom) until we know what the committee is going to do with them.

HenryMuto said...

Saint Louis you have reached your endgame