Sunday, December 31, 2017

12/31 recap

Big East:
@Seton Hall 75, St John's 70
@Creighton 83, Providence 64 - a pair of holds for the home teams here; too early to panic for the losers

@Syracuse 68, Virginia Tech 56

@Kentucky 66, Georgia 61
@Ole Miss 74, South Carolina 69

Utah 66, @Oregon St 64 - any, and I mean ANY 2-win road sequence in the Pac-12 is noteworthy for a bubble team
@UCLA 74, Washington 53 - important service hold in week 1 for UCLA
@USC 89, Washington St 71 - and a mandatory hold for USC after a loose loss to UW
@Oregon 77, Colorado 62

@Cincinnati 82, Memphis 48
Tulsa 65, @Tulane 56 - just in case people were thinking about Tulane as an at-large entity
UCF 59, East Carolina 39
@SMU 79, South Florida 39

@Bradley 72, Northern Iowa 53 - this is the overkill portion of UNI's at-large-ending stretch of play
Missouri St 67, @Valparaiso 50 - we now funnel our attention to MSU; who I'm not really sure has an at-large case, but we'll monitor anyways

@Appalachian St 80, UT Arlington 76 - I swear to God, the Fun Belt does this every year, their best team tanks in conference play

Saturday, December 30, 2017

12/30 recap

Big East:
@Butler 101, Villanova 93 - only will be a problem for Nova if road losses become a pattern.  Butler gains a bubble-securing signature win
@Xavier 77, DePaul 72
@Marquette 74, Georgetown 65

Big 12:
Oklahoma 90, @TCU 89 - we're going to need to discuss OU and the 1 line before too long here

@Arizona 84, Arizona St 78 - Zona needs every signature win they can get to repair their damage.  Tough to say what this means for ASU as I'm not completely sure how good they are
California 77, @Stanford 74 - man, Stanford blows

@Duke 100, Florida St 93 - a non-event for both teams from a bracket perspective
@Virginia 59, Boston College 58 - it'd be nice if BC could just lay down during conference play, you know
@North Carolina 73, Wake Forest 69
Miami 67, @Pittsburgh 53
@Notre Dame 68, Georgia Tech 59
@Clemson 78, NC State 62 - not a big deal, but still, the first step a fledgling bubble team must take is to win all of these games

@Alabama 79, Texas A&M 57 - road games are tough, y'know.  This hurts A&M's hopes at one of the top 2 lines; the best teams don't lose like this.  This should stand up as a Group 1 win for a Bama team that desperately needed it
@Arkansas 95, Tennessee 93 (OT) - not really compelled to change the outlook on either team after this one
@Florida 81, Vanderbilt 74

Wichita St 72, @UConn 62 - road wins are never trivial
@Houston 76, Temple 73 - and Temple is just about done and dusted already

@Nevada 77, New Mexico 74
@San Diego St 79, Utah St 59
Boise St 83, @UNLV 74 - probable Group 1 win.  Crushing blow for UNLV, tough to build an at-large resume when you let a home game like this go by the boards.  Big boon for Boise though

@Gonzaga 101, Santa Clara 52
St Mary's 74, @BYU 64 - crushing blow to BYU's at-large hopes (quality wins aren't in abundance in the WCC) and a major Group 1 win savior for St Mary's

@St Bonaventure 98, UMass 78 - we've reached the long bleak portion of the schedule where Bonaventure must do everything they can to hold serve every night
@Rhode Island 83, George Mason 64 - ditto for URI

@Green Bay 80, Oakland 79 - the Horizon favorite splits the Wisconsin trip
@Loyola(Chi) 66, Evansville 59 - you tell me who the favorite in the MVC is.  I don't know
@Charleston 73, Towson 62 - your two probable favorites in the Colonial, home service hold in the first of two key games here
@UNC Greensboro 71, Wofford 67 - just in case everyone was penciling in Wofford.  SoCon could be low-key fun this year
Middle Tennessee 63, @UAB 60
@Sacramento St 80, Portland St 75 - PSU was actually putting up a really good resume for a Big Sky team, so this loss is disturbing

Friday, December 29, 2017

12/29 recap

Big 12:
West Virginia 85, @Oklahoma St 79 - road wins are never trivial.  Bodes well for WVU's probably quest for a top 3 seed.  Bodes not that great for OSU battling in the bottom-middle of this conference going for an at-large bid
Kansas 92, @Texas 86 - just take the analysis from the game above and apply it here too
@Texas Tech 77, Baylor 53 - and Baylor can't keep pace with the 2 favorites in conference.  Eyebrow officially raised at TTU, maybe they won't be in the cellar.  Will toy with moving them in the bracket now that they have a legitimate business win on top of Nevada
Kansas St 91, @Iowa St 75

Utah 66, @Oregon 56 - a tale of two bubbles.  On the one end, Utah was on the wrong side, then just turned in a probable Group 1 win.  On the other, bubble teams are supposed to hold onto this game and Oregon is in trouble
Washington 88, @USC 81 - and here's another game where I thought the better team was at home, and they give a game.  I'm not really sure how good Utah or Washington are, but we must rethink the pecking order behind the Arizonas, I guess.  This could be a mess of a season in this conference
@Oregon St 76, Colorado 76
@UCLA 96, Washington St 82 - maybe UCLA is 3rd best

@Coastal Carolina 90, UT Arlington 65 - everyone's mid-major darling just absolutely punted this game.  What is this I don't even

@Kentucky 90, Louisville 61 - kind of a non-event from a bracketing perspective

by the way, 5 Big 10 teams played non-con games.  There's 8 more non-con games tomorrow.  Why couldn't they just play league games this weekend?  Just play 2 in 3 days, man up and squeeze them in.  I don't think this MSG stuff is going to work for them long-term.

12/28 recap

Big East:
@Seton Hall 90, Creighton 84 - remember the rule:  when home teams hold in this type of game, both teams' profiles don't really move in either direction significantly
Providence 94, @St John's 72 - a big road win for a team that I think most people were ready to leave behind in the bubble discussion.  And a disturbing loss for a team that I think most people were ready to put in the bracket with no thought.  The plot thickens

Tulane 85, @Temple 75 - a catastrophic loss right off the bat for a fringe bubble team
Houston 79, @USF 60

@Gonzaga 81, Pacific 48
@BYU 69, Portland 45
@St Mary's 87, Loyola Marymount 59 - standard night for matchday 1 in the WCC

Southern Illinois 56, @Northern Iowa 53 - here's a dumb loss that could end at-large discussion for a conference much earlier than expected

Oakland 76, @Milwaukee 68 - probably the 2 best teams in the Horizon, and Oakland binks a road win in the series right away
@SE Louisiana 73, Stephen F Austin 62 - SFA won't be a lock to win this year's Southland

Hartford 60, @Rutgers 58 - good grief.  Rutgers had a stupid non-con schedule.  13 home games.  That's it.
LSU 71, @Memphis 61 - one more decent road win for the SEC's non-con ledger
New Mexico St 65, @UC Irvine 60 - road wins are never trivial

Thursday, December 28, 2017

12/27 recap

We begin conference play, and we can begin focusing these recaps a bit more tightly.

Big Priest:
Villanova 103, @DePaul 85
Xavier 91, @Marquette 87 - mid-tier tourney teams lose these road games; protected seeds win these games.  I don't think many had Marquette in legitimate bubble play, so this shouldn't change much
Butler 91, @Georgetown 89 (2OT) - near disaster for Butler; good to see most were paying attention to GU's schedule, have a feeling this will turn into a 2-16 conference team

@SMU 56, UCF 51 - right off the bat, one crucial Group 1 win chance is off the board for UCF.  But, thanks to crafty scheduling by the AAC offices, they should get all the AAC contenders 2x this season

Mountain West:
@New Mexico 87, Air Force 58
@Wyoming 82, San Diego St 69 - right away, one road loss for SDSU that's going to hurt the at-large profile
@Utah St 86, San Jose St 72
@Boise St 93, Colorado St 71 - starting to feel like Boise and Nevada could separate in the conference, and I think the conference should root for this.  Should be able to get those 2 secured by March and take your shot at back-dooring a 3rd bid from there
Nevada 80, @Fresno St 65 - good sign here:  the road win over competent team

Monday, December 25, 2017

12/27 S-CURVE

Posting on 12/25...with no games until 12/27, damn straight I'm timestamping this S-Curve as 12/27.

The 1 line:  Villanova (12-0), Duke (12-1), Michigan St (12-1), Arizona St (12-0)
The 2 line:  North Carolina (11-2), Xavier (12-1), Oklahoma (10-1), Texas A&M (11-1)
The 3 line:  West Virginia (11-1), Virginia (11-1), Kentucky (9-2), Kansas (10-2)
The 4 line:  Purdue (12-2), Wichita St (10-2), Miami (11-1), Arizona (10-3)
The 5 line:  TCU (12-0), Seton Hall (11-2), Arkansas (9-2), Gonzaga (10-3)
The 6 line:  Florida St (11-1), Cincinnati (11-2), Creighton (10-2), Clemson (11-1)
The 7 line:  Notre Dame (9-3), Tennessee (9-2), Louisville (10-2), Maryland (10-3)
The 8 line:  Baylor (9-2), Minnesota (11-3), SMU (10-3), Texas (9-3)
The 9 line:  Nevada (11-3), Florida (8-4), Oregon (10-3), Butler (10-3)
The 10 line:  Michigan (10-3), Alabama (8-4), UCLA (9-3), Rhode Island (7-3)
The 11 line:  Boise St (9-2), Syracuse (10-2), Auburn (11-1), St Bonaventure (10-2), Oklahoma St (10-2), St John's (9-2)
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa (6-4), New Mexico St (9-3), Middle Tennessee (7-4), Towson (8-3)
The 13 line:  UT Arlington (8-4), Buffalo (6-5), South Dakota St (8-5), UC Santa Barbara (9-3)
The 14 line:  Wofford (5-4), Portland St (7-3), Belmont (8-5), Vermont (7-5)
The 15 line:  Iona (6-6), Penn (7-4), Oakland (8-5), Bucknell (6-7)
The 16 line:  Lipscomb (7-4), Stephen F Austin (7-2), UNC-Asheville (5-6), Wagner (5-4), North Carolina A&T (5-7), Texas Southern (0-13)

Next 4 in:
Boise St

Last 4 in:
St Bonaventure
Oklahoma St

Last 4 out:
St Mary's (11-2)
Temple (7-4)
Texas Tech (11-1)
USC (9-4)

Next 4 out:
Missouri St (10-3)
Missouri (9-3)
Virginia Tech (10-2)
San Diego St (7-3)

Break it down!:
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 4
A-10 2

Quick thoughts:
- ACC with 9 bids, seems to be a good line to set for an over/under for March bids.
- SEC up to 7 bids.  Not convinced it'll stick, but their SoS work as a conference is showing dividends
- Big 12 with 6 bids, seems about right.  Everyone is getting fooled by Texas Tech again.  So stupid.
- B1G might be in legit trouble.  They'll get to 5 bids just because someone has to win these conference games, but that might be their max
- Pac-12 is in trouble, but that's well documented by now, I hope.
- Big East has their typical 6
- Further down, I think A-10 could escape with 2 bids if Bonaventure separates with URI in league play

12/25 recap

Diamond Head:
USC 77, New Mexico St 72 - not the signature win USC was hoping for, but a solid neutral site win will have to do
Miami 84, MTSU 81 - the win has modest value, at least
Davidson 91, Akron 78
Princeton 77, Hawaii 63 - Hawaii does realize they technically lost 3 home games here, right?

Sunday, December 24, 2017

12/23 recap

Diamond Head:
New Mexico St 63, Miami 54 - there's the mini-disaster for Miami, although all is hardly lost for their profile.  NMSU has modest at-large life, with a new Group 1 win
USC 89, Middle Tennessee 84 - catastrophic blow to USC's profile.  With the current Pac-12 situation, USC needs access to every possible Group 1 win, and they just lost one
Princeton 64, Akron 62
Hawaii 79, Davidson 71

Signature wins:
UCLA 83, Kentucky 75
Tennessee 79, @Wake Forest 60 - road wins are never trivial

North Carolina 86, Ohio St 72
@Auburn 89, UConn 64 - SEC has been racking up these wins with regularity, bodes well for the conference in March
Illinois 70, Missouri 64

Las Vegas Classic:
San Francisco 66, Nevada 64 - Nevada has now spent most of its goodwill that it built up in the first month of the season

Saturday, December 23, 2017

12/22 recap

Signature wins:
Xavier 77, @Northern Iowa 67 - likely a Group 1 road win
St Bonaventure 60, @Syracuse 57 - here's a Group 1 road win, and one the A-10 desperately needed.  Bonaventure will have a legit at-large pulse
Texas 66, @Alabama 50 - and your other possible Group 1 road win for the day

Quality wins:
@Oklahoma 104, Northwestern 78
@Georgia 84, Temple 66
@Clemson 89, Louisiana 60
@Pittsburgh 63, Towson 59
@East Tennessee St 79, Georgia Southern 59
@Missouri St 64, Loyola(Chi) 59

Stony Brook 75, @Rutgers 73
Rider 71, @Penn St 70 - oy
Wright St 85, @Georgia Tech 81

Diamond Head:
Middle Tennessee 69, Princeton 67
USC 84, Akron 53
New Mexico St 69, Davidson 68
Miami 75, Hawaii 57 - hey another tournament to work with!  The best 4 teams won here, so good news for all legitimate tournament teams.  Miami and USC seem the two best, but MTSU and NMSU can resurrect bubble hopes with 2 more wins here

Las Vegas Classic:
Nevada 86, Southern Illinois 64
Duquesne 67, San Francisco 65 - here's a dumb thing:  matchups are fixed, so Nevada plays USF and misses Duquesne.  Okay.  Whatever.  Nevada needs 2 wins to not damage its resume anyways

Friday, December 22, 2017

12/21 recap

Common theme this week:  light impact games. 

Signature wins:
@San Diego St 72, Gonzaga 70 - I'm not completely convinced this will hold as a Group 1 win for SDSU, but nevertheless it could be a resume saver.  MWC is looking better and better to get 2 bids, although which 2 is still up in the air

Kansas 75, @Stanford 54 - road wins are never trivial
@Arizona 73, UConn 58 - Zona looks to be back to full strength
@Kent St 79, Oregon St 78 - lol Pac-12
Portland St 106, Cal 81 - as I mentioned before, Portland St might not be bad, and the Big Sky might escape even the 15 line this year, who knows

12/20 recap

What the fuck:
Wofford 79, @North Carolina 75 - this transcends analysis, straight into WTF mode.  Will cost UNC multiple seed lines

St John's 77, St Joseph's 73 - neutral site win
Houston 70, Providence 59 - another neutral win, this a modest boost to Houston and significant damage to Provi's resume
@Oakland 97, Towson 86 - that's the CAA favorite losing on the road; no major sin, but the difference between being on the at-large periphery and not
Kansas St 68, @Washington St 65 - road wins are never trivial

12/19 recap

Quality wins:
@Clemson 64, South Carolina 48 - Clemson is really legitimate, huh.  USC will be fine because SEC play will now offer quality win chances to replace this one

@Syracuse 81, Buffalo 74
Bucknell 86, @Richmond 78
Auburn 81, @Murray St 77 - road wins are never trivial
@Georgia 80, Georgia Tech 59
@St Mary's 69, Dayton 54 - every win matters for St Mary's resume
Princeton 103, @USC 93 (OT) - ugh, Pac-12
UCF 74, @Stetson 55 - road wins, etc etc

Thursday, December 21, 2017

12/18 recap

@Creighton 90, UT Arlington 81 - hey, UTA isn't half bad, so this might be a Group 2 win
Wake Forest 84, @Coastal Carolina 80 - mostly notable because Wake is out here playing true road games at mid-majors for the second straight year.  It paid off last year
Fort Wayne 92, @Indiana 72 - oy
@SMU 86, Boise St 63 - anything approaching a quality win is big for SMU, and every missed chance for Boise is even huger

Most of the rest of the day was filled with trivial wins.

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

12/17 recap

not much here...

Signature wins:
North Carolina 78, @Tennessee 73 - road wins are never trivial

ok then:
@Arizona St 76, Vanderbilt 64
Penn St 72, @George Mason 54 - road wins, etc etc
@Stanford 71, San Francisco 59
@USC 98, UC Santa Barbara 87

Monday, December 18, 2017

12/16 recap

After several days of drab games, an explosion!

Signature wins:
Oklahoma 91, @Wichita St 83 - what I like to call a Group 0 win right here.  A transcendent Group 1 win.
Purdue 82, Butler 67 - neutral site wins like this are always useful
Indiana 80, Notre Dame 77 (OT) - IU's already on the brink of season failure, and UND absorbs a loss they'd rather not, given more will be coming in ACC.  Don't want to use up your resume goodwill like this
Oklahoma St 71, Florida St 70 - neutral site wins everywhere!  This is a good one for OSU
Clemson 71, Florida 69 - something might be wrong with Florida.  Wasn't taking Clemson too seriously before, and still might not, but I'm officially watching

potent potables:
Michigan St 86, Oakland 73 - neutral site win, for the record
Miami 59, @George Washington 50 - road wins are never trivial
Kansas 73, @Nebraska 72 - road wins, triviality, etc etc
Arizona 89, @New Mexico 73 - blah blah blah
Cincinnati 77, @UCLA 63 - lol Pac-12
Louisville 81, Memphis 72
Syracuse 86, Georgetown 79 (OT) - please tell me you weren't taking G'town seriously either
Auburn 76, MTSU 70 - aw, I was hoping MTSU would make another at-large run
Oregon 68, @Fresno St 61 - road wins, etc etc
Iowa St 76, Northern Iowa 65 - this will prove to be a useful Group 1 win

holding serve (games where the winning team gets a modest resume boost and the loser isn't hurt):
@Kentucky 93, Virginia Tech 86
@Xavier 68, East Tennessee St 66 (ETSU should post a decent record this year)
@St Bonaventure 81, Vermont 79
@Rhode Island 68, Charleston 62
@VCU 85, Bucknell 79
@BYU 77, Utah 65

@Gonzaga 89, North Dakota 83 (OT)
Northwestern 62, @DePaul 60

catastrophic losses:
@Rutgers 71, Seton Hall 65 - this being a roadie means it's not too bad, but's Rutgers
UNC Greensboro 81, @NC State 76 - oy
Stephen F Austin 83, @LSU 82
@Milwaukee 73, Loyola(Chi) 56 - that at-large candidacy was fledgling
@UMass 72, Georgia 62
New Mexico St 74, Illinois 69

Sunday, December 17, 2017

12/15 recap

@Colorado 112, South Dakota St 103 (2OT) - could've been a useful win for the Summit's seed in the bracket in March

...this was the only game that remotely even matters any little bit on this Friday.

12/14 recap

Lightest day of the year.

@Northwestern 84, Valparaiso 50
@Baylor 99, Texas Southern 68

12/13 recap

Quality wins:
Villanova 87, @Temple 67 - it's a probable Group 1 win

stuff and whatnot:
@Wisconsin 81, Western Kentucky 80 - dicey
@LSU 80, Houston 77 - no real sin for UH to lose this, but could've been very useful for the at-large resume
@Boise St 85, Grand Canyon 80 (2OT) - near disaster
@Oregon 95, Portland St 84 - PSU might not be terrible, so yeah

12/12 recap

Signature wins:
Michigan 59, @Texas 52 - another one of those road Tier 1 wins

this 'n that:
@Cincinnati 65, Mississippi St 50 - I hope no one thinks MSU was ever any good
Georgia Southern 74, @George Mason 51 - road wins by good mid-majors are always notable
Louisiana 75, @Louisiana Tech 71 - see above comment
San Diego 69, @Colorado 59 - and it's a bit of a surprise to realize that USD fits this category now

Tuesday, December 12, 2017


This bracket is quite unbalanced, but it's not worth finding solutions at this time of year.  That West regional sure is funny, though.

ACC - seems to be top heavy.  We'll be able to discard the bottom teams quickly, while I expect an easy 8-9 teams to make it.
Pac-12 - is a tire fire, and I beg of you to tell me what to do with them.
B1G - is a secret tire fire as well, but has a few more viable bubble teams.  They'll claw and scratch towards 6 bids.
Big 12 - is of their usual caliber this year
Big East - is of their usual caliber this year
SEC - scheduling is paying off!  Should be a strong 6-7 bids this year, IMO.

A-10 - the tire fire to end all tire fires.  I don't see an at-large path for anyone but URI at this point.  Not a lot of time yet to fix.
WCC - struggling this year, St Mary's is in trouble, and heck maybe Gonzaga too if they stumble
MWC - the vacancies of the above two conferences plus their own rebound should mean that they are at least bubble players.  They should find 2 teams, one way or the other
MVC - also helped by the others floundering, I give them a fighting shot at 2 bids
AAC - should get to 3 and maybe 4 bids.  Of their typical strength this year

1) Villanova vs. 16) Wagner/North Carolina A&T
8) Oregon vs. 9) Rhode Island
4) Purdue vs. 13) South Dakota St
5) Virginia vs. 12) Ohio St/Loyola(Chi)
3) Miami vs. 14) Murray St
6) Minnesota vs. 11) Syracuse/Alabama
2) Kansas vs. 15) Milwaukee
7) Creighton vs. 10) SMU

1) North Carolina vs. 16) UNC Asheville
8) Tennessee vs. 9) Michigan
@San Diego
4) Seton Hall vs. 13) Georgia Southern
5) TCU vs. 12) Middle Tennessee
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Vermont
6) Florida vs. 11) Temple
@San Diego
2) Arizona St vs. 15) Portland St
7) Arkansas vs. 10) Boise St

1) Michigan St vs. 16) Stephen F Austin
8) Nevada vs. 9) USC
4) Notre Dame vs. 13) Iona
5) Cincinnati vs. 12) Central Michigan
3) Wichita St vs. 14) Utah Valley
6) Arizona vs. 11) Oklahoma
2) Texas A&M vs. 15) Navy
7) Baylor vs. 10) UCLA

1) Duke vs. 16) Lipscomb/Prairie View A&M
8) Texas vs. 9) Butler
4) Gonzaga vs. 13) UC Davis
5) Florida St vs. 12) Towson
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Penn
6) Maryland vs. 11) St John's
2) Xavier vs. 15) Mercer
7) Louisville vs. 10) Northern Iowa

12/11 recap

@Minnesota 68, Drake 67
@Oregon 74, Texas Southern 68
um...@Northwestern 96, Chicago St 31?

So it was a light impact day.  I got nothin'.


Details/explanations will be thrown into a later post.

The 1 line:  Villanova (10-0), Duke (11-1), Michigan St (9-1), North Carolina (9-1)
The 2 line:  Texas A&M (8-1), Xavier (9-1), Kansas (7-2), Arizona St (9-0)
The 3 line:  Kentucky (8-1), Wichita St (8-1), Miami (8-0), West Virginia (9-1)
The 4 line:  Purdue (10-2), Notre Dame (7-2), Seton Hall (8-1), Gonzaga (8-2)
The 5 line:  Virginia (8-1), Florida St (9-0), Cincinnati (7-2), TCU (10-0)
The 6 line:  Arizona (7-3), Minnesota (8-3), Maryland (9-3), Florida (6-3)
The 7 line:  Baylor (6-2), Creighton (7-2), Louisville (6-2), Arkansas (7-2)
The 8 line:  Nevada (8-2), Tennessee (7-1), Texas (6-2), Oregon (6-3)
The 9 line:  USC (4-3), Michigan (7-3), Rhode Island (5-3), Butler (8-2)
The 10 line:  SMU (7-3), Northern Iowa (6-2), Boise St (8-1), UCLA (7-2)
The 11 line:  Oklahoma (7-1), Temple (6-2), St John's (7-2), Syracuse (8-1), Alabama (7-3)
The 12 line:  Ohio St (8-3), Loyola(Chi) (9-1), Central Michigan (6-1), Towson (8-1), Middle Tennessee (6-1)
The 13 line:  South Dakota St (5-4), Georgia Southern (5-2), Iona (4-4), UC Davis (6-2)
The 14 line:  Murray St (4-1), Vermont (5-4), Utah Valley (5-4), Penn (7-4)
The 15 line:  Mercer (4-4), Portland St (6-2), Milwaukee (5-3), Navy (8-3)
The 16 line:  Stephen F Austin (6-1), UNC Asheville (4-4), Wagner (5-1), Lipscomb (5-4), North Carolina A&T (3-4), Prairie View A&M (2-7)

Next 4 in:
St John's

Last 4 in:
Ohio St

Last 4 out:
Missouri (7-2)
St Mary's (8-2)
St Bonaventure (8-2)
San Diego St (6-3)

Next 4 out:
Houston (8-1)
Providence (7-3)
Virginia Tech (9-1)
Auburn (8-1)

Break it down!:
Big East 6
Big 12 6
B1G 6
Pac-12 5

Monday, December 11, 2017

12/10 recap

Bracket might be coming soon.  It's about that time of year that one can go up without it looking too nefarious.

Signature wins:
Arizona St 95, @Kansas 85 - the Pac-12, which is a tire fire, now has two wins at Kansas this week.  What in the actual hell
Gonzaga 97, @Washington 70 - as a road win, has a good chance of ending up Tier 1

catastrophic losses:
@Oral Roberts 73, Missouri St 66

A very quiet day, which is the norm around this early December time.

Sunday, December 10, 2017

12/9 recap

signature wins:
@Boston College 89, Duke 84 - I don't expect BC to be any kind of player in the bubble race, but hey, everyone has to start their resume with a signature win somewhere
Florida 66, Cincinnati 60 - this is a stop-the-bleeding result that stabilizes the resume, just a bit
Wichita St 78, @Oklahoma St 66 - road wins are never trivial
@Arkansas 95, Minnesota 79

this and that:
Notre Dame 92, @Delaware 68 - how about that for a road game
@Xavier 96, Colorado 69 - probably won't have much value
West Virginia 69, @Pittsburgh 60 - Pitt is terrible so this ain't no signature road win
@Seton Hall 90, VCU 67 - VCU does not have the same resume value this year that they normally do
@Michigan 78, UCLA 69 (OT) - should be a quality win by March, but a home one nonetheless
Marquette 82, @Wisconsin 63
@Louisville 71, Indiana 62 - both these wins over B1G teams are a bit muted because they're not playing all that great
@Creighton 75, Nebraska 65
Penn 78, @Dayton 70
@Penn St 74, George Washington 54 - we've reached the A-10 fail portion of the recap
@Middle Tennessee 77, Ole Miss 58
Houston 77, @St Louis 58
@Arizona 88, Alabama 82
@UNLV 89, Illinois 82

questionable losses:
@UMass 72, Providence 63
@Ball St 71, Valparaiso 70
FGCU 85, @UT-Arlington 78 - this derails some of the UTA bandwagon
@Northeastern 71, Vermont 67 - and there goes the Vermont bandwagon.  Road win are tough
California 63, @San Diego St 62 - really really bad loss for SDSU
Tulsa 61, @Kansas St 54

12/8 recap

Light night, which is to be expected on Fridays

Arizona St 82, St John's 70 - neutral site win, which isn't nothing.  ASU isn't cooperating with the narrative of Pac-12 failing
Oklahoma 85, USC 83 - see, this is more like it for the Pac-12
TCU 84, Nevada 80 - a probable Tier 1 win
@Oregon 95, Colorado St 65

Friday, December 8, 2017

12/7 recap

@Purdue 80, Valparaiso 50
@Northern Iowa 62, UT Arlington 58
@Iowa St 84, Iowa 78

Holy crap this night was light.  I got nothing else for ya.  Carry on.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

12/6 recap

Signature wins:

Washington 74, @Kansas 65 - the Pac-12 is so weird.  So down, but they have signature wins tucked away.  Here's the most signature of signature wins for UW.  Are they the favorites now?  If not, who?  This is such a mess.  I have no idea what to do with the entire conference

Loyola(Chi) 65, @Florida 59 - Loyola suddenly goes from a nice little season to legitimate business at-large contenders

potent potables:
@Temple 59, Wisconsin 55 - Wisky has a loss accumulation problem
@Woford 63, Georgia Tech 60 - GT has a problem, in general
@South Carolina 80, Wyoming 64
@Old Dominion 79, Richmond 60
@Alabama 68, Rhode Island 64 - URI doesn't get dinged too badly for this, just be careful not to accumulate more losses
Middle Tennessee 66, @Vanderbilt 63 - road wins are never trivial
@BYU 80, Illinois St 68
Central Arkansas 96, @Cal 69 - lol
@Idaho 91, Washington St 64 - is the Big Sky playing its way off the 16 line?  Perhaps

lot of notable mid-major stuff.  SFA went on the road to beat La Tech...Towson wins to go 9-1...Hofstra over Monmouth on the road....EMU wins at home over Oakland...Bonaventure wins a roadie at Canisius...GW over Princeton...Harvard road win at Fordham...Akron over Fort Wayne...ETSU over NKU....New Mexico can probably be written off, Colorado beats them at home...NMSU lost to San Diego, who might actually not be bad

Why did I list all those games anyway?  I dunno, but it's probably a safe bet 5 or 6 of those teams are going to win their conference and be in the 13-14 seed range in March.  There's some quality road wins mixed in there.  Some of these results will matter...just tough to say which ones when we're still in December.

12/5 recap

Signature wins:
Villanova 88, Gonzaga 72
Arizona 63, Texas A&M 64 - at this point, any win of this type is magnified for Zona's resume
@TCU 94, SMU 83 - borderline Tier 1 win
@Texas Tech 82, Nevada 76 (OT) - Nevada finally ran out of rungood, but they built up a lot of bubble equity before their first loss
Texas 71, @VCU 67 - road wins are never trivial

Catastrophic losses:
Ball St 80, @Notre Dame 77 - I don't think BSU's overall resume will play on the bubble this year, but still.  This will be worth a seeding line to UND
@Nebraska 78, Minnesota 68 - yeah, road losses, but still, you can't do this and be a top 4 seed

Michigan St 62, @Rutgers 52
@Wichita St 95, South Dakota St 85
@Marquette 91, Vermont 81
@Butler 81, Utah 69
Syracuse 72, UConn 63

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

12/4 recap

Signature wins:
Florida St 83, @Florida 66 - another game I like to call a Tier 0 win - a Tier 1 win, but even better

assorted detrubis:
@Ohio St 71, Michigan 62 - we're at the tail end of the B1G conference sneak preview...
Wisconsin 64, @Penn St 63 - any win of any kind is a big deal for Wisky right now
@Indiana 77, Iowa 64
Missouri St 71, @North Dakota St 58 - road wins are never trivial

...this was a light day.  Mondays are usually light, so deal with it

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

12/3 recap

Signature wins:
Seton Hall 79, @Louisville 77 - there should be a Tier 0:  Tier 1 wins, but with an extra oompf.  Like this roadie
UCF 65, @Alabama 62 - a likely Tier 1 win

Kansas St 84, @Vanderbilt 79 - alas, this road win is destined for Tier 2
Tennessee 77, @Georgia Tech 70 - alas, same story with Tier 2 here
@George Washington 71, Temple 67 - road wins are always a diffcult ask, but this does use up some of Temple's wiggle room on the bubble
@Long Beach St 76, Stanford 68 - I'm frankly more impressed LBSU got a home game with Stanford than the actual win
@San Diego St 75, Bradley 52 - for those scoring at home, there was a MWC/MVC challenge.  10 home teams won in 10 games.  Great, we learned basically very little about either conference
@Mississippi St 61, Dayton 59

@Michigan St 86, Nebraska 57 - if a bad conference game on December 3 is played, does it really count?
@Minnesota 89, Rutgers 67 - ditto
@Purdue 74, Northwestern 69 - status quo for both
Maryland 92, @Illinois 91 (OT) - finally, a win of modest worth, since it was on the road

Sunday, December 3, 2017

12/2 recap

signature wins:
Wichita St 69, @Baylor 62 - road win, self-explanatory
@Xavier 89, Cincinnati 76 - might matter a little bit to both teams, but won't make or break a resume
@SMU 72, USC 55 - no sin to lose on the road for USC, and SMU could've used the resume boost.  Not convinced the AAC will be ripe with quality win chances yet
Georgia 73, @Marquette 66 - perhaps good for Georgia, but we may also need to consider Marquette isn't near the bubble
@Rhode Island 75, Providence 68 - you can't stress how important these things are for the entire A-10 right now
Arizona 91, @UNLV 88 (OT) - UNLV's pretty good, so this was very important

bad losses:
UC Davis 81, @Washington St 67 - just when we think Wazzu might actually be an upper division team in the Pac-12.  Still might given the tire fire status of the conference right now

potent potables:
Kansas 76, Syracuse 60 - goes down as a neutral site win
Villanova 94, @St Joseph's 53 - goes down in the books as a road win in a Philly 5 matchup
@Kentucky 79, Harvard 70 - man, a lot of good mid-major programs this year are getting beat up trying to schedule up
@Michigan 69, Indiana 55 - home team holds, it may be time to assume Indiana is well off the bubble pace
@Colorado St 72, Colorado 63
Virginia Tech 83, @Ole Miss 80 (OT) - pretty sure Ole Miss isn't good, but a road win is a road win
St Bonaventure 73, @Buffalo 62
Oakland 78, @Western Michigan 73
@UConn 84, Monmouth 81 (OT)
Ohio St 83, @Wisconsin 58 - and we can definitely discard Wisconsin from discussion for awhile
Penn St 77, @Iowa 73 - road wins are never trivial
@VCU 82, Old Dominion 75
@Bucknell 81, Vermont 77 - Vermont probably wasn't getting an at-large anyway, but they're a good team and gives up precious seeding ground here
Middle Tennessee 81, @FGCU 76 - useful road win
@Houston 91, Arkansas 65
Missouri St 73, @South Dakota St 53 - useful road win
St Mary's 74, @California 63 - useful road win

12/1 recap

signature wins:
@Gonzaga 91, Creighton 74 - WCC is way down (I've mentioned this a few times now), so these mean more to Gonzaga at this point
Purdue 80, @Maryland 75 - as a road win, will likely go down in Tier 1.  Early chance for Maryland to get a Tier 1 win goes by the boards early
Boise St 73, @Oregon 70 - road wins like this are golden, and can make a resume if the other pieces are in order

North Carolina 85, Davidson 75 - appears to go down as a neutral site win
@Northwestern 72, Illinois 68 - likely won't mean much more than a service hold for NU

catastrophe of the day:
Grambling 64, Georgia Tech 63.  Grambling is not a Top 350 D1 program.

There are 351 D1 programs.

There is no amount of words that can quantify how catastrophic this loss is.

Towson won a neutral site game over LaSalle...Pitt won a roadie over Duquesne, actually surprised by that...Louisiana won an easy roadie, and I think the Sun Belt could be very interesting this year between them, the Georgias, and UTA

Saturday, December 2, 2017

11/30 recap

Not a lot on this day.

Signature win of the day:
@Michigan St 81, Notre Dame 63 - likely won't be too impactful for either team, but it's pretty safe to assume MSU is on the 1 line at this point and UND will be fine for the 2 line

Seton Hall 89, Texas Tech 79 - useful neutral-site win
Temple 76, South Carolina 60 - the A-10 is way down, so every contender needs to build their at-large resume in the non-con.  Very important for Temple here
Missouri 62, @UCF 59 - road wins are never trivial
San Diego St 66, @San Diego 57 - ditto

11/29 recap

Duke 91, @Indiana 81 - I wonder what deal everyone made with Duke to actually get them to play a true road game in the non-con
Miami 86, @Minnesota 81 - possibly the signature win of the contest, a road win at a probable tourney team, a near lock to be a Tier 1 win
@North Carolina 86, Michigan 71
@NC State 85, Penn St 78
Clemson 79, @Ohio St 65 - that's pretty ugly for OSU.  And the B1G just about ejected from this entire competition
@Nebraska 71, Boston College 62 - don't worry B1G, Nebraska's got your back

stuff of interest:
@TCU 87, Belmont 76
@Alabama 77, Louisiana Tech 74
Auburn 73, @Dayton 60 - road wins are never trivial, and it's time to get used to the SEC being more relevant in these bubble discussions
@St Joseph's 83, Bucknell 70 - Bucknell tried to bite off too much with their non-con
Vermont 71, @Richmond 65
@Northern Iowa 77, UNLV 68 (OT)
@Nevada 98, Illinois 68 - I'm officially on the Nevada bandwagon

quick hits:
A bunch of P6 schools holding over plucky mid majors this night.  For example:  Tennessee over Mercer....Providence over Rider...Stanford over Montana, UCLA over CSUB.  UConn elsewhere needed OT to beat Columbia, oof.

Friday, December 1, 2017

11/28 recap

@Purdue 66, Louisville 57 - won't have much to say in games like these where the home team holds.  Both seem in the 3-6 seed range, we can move on for now
Florida St 78, @Rutgers 73 - road wins at Rutgers are trivial
@Georgia Tech 52, Northwestern 51 - no sin to lose this game, but Northwestern is going to be playing resume catch-up this season
@Wake Forest 80, Illinois 73
@Virginia Tech 79, Iowa 55

Signature wins:
@Xavier 76, Baylor 63
South Dakota St 99, @Ole Miss 97 (OT) - never know which of these wins will end up being worth a seed line in March

Interesting scores:
Western Michigan 65, @St Louis 51
@Missouri St 77, Colorado St 67
@Valparaiso 72, Utah St 65
@Boise St 87, Loyola(Chi) 53

Thursday, November 30, 2017

11/27 recap

We're clear of holiday tournament crap!

@Virginia 49, Wisconsin 37 - I think we accidentally created a time rift by putting these two teams together, and actually played this game in the year 1957 before traveling back to present day

@Syracuse 72, Maryland 70 - my rule of thumb in these games is that home wins are nice, but don't move the needle greatly, while road wins are golden.  Road losses aren't too damaging as long as you don't stack up a bunch on top of each other.  So, this is business as usual for both

South Carolina 78, @FIU 61 - road wins are never trivial

Not a lot of other notable results....Marquette over EIU in a near-disaster in OT....Oakland wins a roadie at Oral Bob.  Belmont loses at home to Lipscomb, so they may be merely of ordinary strength this year.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

11/26 recap

non-tourney crap:
Texas A&M 75, @USC 59 - and there's a signature road win, and even another disaster for the Pac-12

Nike money grab - Motion bracket
Duke 87, Florida 84
Gonzaga 76, Texas 71 (OT) - more important for Gonzaga than you think
Portland St 87, Stanford 78 - uh oh
Butler 67, Ohio St 66 (OT) - we'll need to see the bubble in February to know how important this one is.  In fact, I think we can apply this statement to all the Nike money grab games.  The values of these wins will change, so don't get caught up in definitive analysis of these results yet

Nike money grab - Victory bracket
Michigan St 63, North Carolina 45
Arkansas 102, UConn 67
Oklahoma 90, Oregon 80
DePaul 82, Portland 69

Wooden Legacy:
Washington St 93, San Diego St 86 - WSU is good!  Who knew!  Good Lord, the Pac-12 is going to be a giant mess this year
Georgia 83, St Mary's 81 (OT) - 2 losses at the Wooden for St Mary's, and legit bubble trouble
St Joseph's 74, Sacramento St 69
CS Fullerton 70, Harvard 61

West Virginia 83, Missouri 79
St John's 46, UCF 43
Nebraska 85, Long Beach St 80
Oregon St 65, Marist 46

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

11/25 recap

Another boring Saturday.  These programs need to just stop ignoring one day of the week, screw college football.

Barclays Center Classic:
Minnesota 89, Alabama 84
BYU 68, UMass 66

Great Alaska:
Sam Houston St 73, Santa Clara 59
Charleston 55, Alaska Anchorage 46
Central Michigan 75, CS Bakersfield 72

Savannah Inv'l:
Loyola(Chi) 75, Kent St 60
Valparaiso 79, UNC Wilmington 70

Emerald Coast Classic:
Maryland 80, New Mexico 65
TCU 89, St Bonaventure 79 - TCU gets the 2 neutral site wins here.  Not terrible

Assorted scores:
UT-Arlington 95, @Niagara 90 - road wins are never trivial
@Providence 86, Boston College 66
Penn 101, @Monmouth 96 (4OT)
@Dayton 73, Akron 60
@Appalachian St 78, Davidson 62 - oof
Georgetown 82, @Richmond 76
Vermont 79, @Yale 73 - road wins are never trivial

Sunday, November 26, 2017

11/24 recap

Battle 4 Atlantis:
Purdue 89, Arizona 64 - your last place game in Atlantis!  Purdue salvages something, but maybe not if this is the Arizona we get this year.  This could actually be big trouble for a conference already light on impact teams
Western Kentucky 63, SMU 61 - yikes for SMU; losses to WKU and UNI, but who the hell knows how their win over Zona will translate in March
Tennessee 67, NC State 58 - Tennessee picks up a decent win to go along with their signature win (Purdue)
Villanova 64, Northern Iowa 50

Contrived Nike tournament #1:
Florida 111, Gonzaga 105 (2OT) - consensus seems to be both teams are probably pretty good, and this won't make or break either resume
Duke 85, Texas 78 (OT) - Duke/Fla coming up
Butler 71, Portland St 69
Ohio St 79, Stanford 71

Contrived Nike tournament #2:
Michigan St 77, UConn 57
North Carolina 87, Arkansas 68 - UNC/MSU do their jobs wading their way to the finals
Oklahoma 93, Portland 71
Oregon 89, DePaul 79 (OT)

Barclays Center Classic:
Minnesota 69, UMass 51
Alabama 71, BYU 59

Las Vegas Inv'l:
Arizona St 102, Xavier 86 - okay, ASU:  officially not bad!
Kansas St 67, George Washington 59

Seton Hall 72, Vanderbilt 59
Virginia 70, Rhode Island 55 - UVa gets the 2 neutral site wins here

Wooden Legacy:
Washington St 84, St Mary's 79 - is WSU secretly not bad as well?  I'm confused, I thought the middle of the Pac-12 was awful.  Anyways, not the greatest look in the world for St Mary's given the WCC isn't a powerhouse filled with quality win chances to rebound with
Harvard 77, St Joseph's 71
San Diego St 75, Georgia 68 - every win matters for MWC teams
CS-Fullerton 68, Sacramento St 63

Advocare Inv'l:
West Virginia 83, UCF 45
Missouri 90, St John's 82 - so are we going to go full Ewing Theory on this Missou team?  UM/WVU in the finals here, hmm
Long Beach St 74, Oregon St 69 - well at least we know OSU is still awful for the Pac-12
Nebraska 84, Marist 59

Savannah Inv'l:
Loyola(Chi) 102, UNC-Wilmington 78 - not the greatest look for the Colonial
Valparaiso 77, Kent St 67

Emerald Coast Classic:
TCU 69, New Mexico 68
St Bonaventure 63, Maryland 61 - swing game, A-10 finally gets one of them in their ledger.  Actually both games here felt like swing games, so no disaster for UNM/Maryland...yet

Central Michigan 56, Cal Poly 53
CS-Bakersfield 64, Idaho 62

one non-tourney game worth mentioning:
Nevada 67, @Hawaii 54 - if you haven't noticed, that's 3 true road wins, plus home wins over Idaho (Big Sky fav) and URI and Davidson.  No single result is tremendous but the sum of the parts is really starting to look good

11/23 recap

PK 80 Motion, or as I like to call it, "Nike starts their own holiday tournament, with blackjack and hookers", version 1:
Duke 99, Portland St 81
Florida 108, Stanford 87
Gonzaga 86, Ohio St 59
Texas 61, Butler 48 - classic swing game.  Texas gets access to quality win chances, Butler is buried on the wrong side of the bracket

PK 80 Victory, , or as I like to call it, "Nike starts their own holiday tournament, with blackjack and hookers", version 2:
Michigan St 73, DePaul 51
North Carolina 102, Portland 78
Arkansas 92, Oklahoma 83 - classic swing game.  Arky gets access to quality win chances, Oklahoma is buried on the wrong side of the bracket
UConn 71, Oregon 63 - ok, the Pac-12 should maybe start worrying about things

Battle 4 Atlantis
SMU 66, Arizona 60 - ok, now it's time to worry about Arizona.  One flameout is fine, two is bad.  Remember the Pac-12 is down, and Arizona is bleeding away quality win chances
Western Kentucky 77, Purdue 73 - and what is Purdue doing losing this game?  This tourney is now a disaster for them too, although PU has access to resume building chances in conference play.  Arizona/Purdue is a dumb 7th place game and someone's getting their resume destroyed and someone's gonna salvage theirs
Northern Iowa 64, NC State 60 - all of a sudden it's two quality wins for UNI and access to Villanova and a signature win.  This is one weird tournament
Villanova 85, Tennessee 76 - Nova's gotta be wondering what value they're getting out of this tournament.  And it's Atlantis!

Las Vegas Inv'l:
Xavier 83, George Washington 64 - sadly, a win with no nutritional value
Arizona St 92, Kansas St 90 - is ASU secretly not bad?

NIT Tip-Off:
Rhode Island 75, Seton Hall 74 - might be the signature win of the day.  Given how down the A-10 is, URI desperately needs a quality win of any kind on the ledger
Virginia 68, Vanderbilt 42 - bad, bad start to the year for Vandy, they're well off the bubble pace

Wooden Legacy:
St Mary's 89, Harvard 71
Washington St 75, St Joseph's 71
Georgia 64, CS-Fullerton 57
San Diego St 89, Sacramento St 52 - the favorites all hold here

Advocare Inv'l:
West Virginia 84, Marist 78
Missouri 95, Long Beach St 58
St John's 82, Oregon St 77
UCF 68, Nebraska 59 - quirky tournament with a few haves and a few have nots.  All the favorites avoided disaster, though

Great Alaska Shootout:
Charleston 59, Sam Houston St 49
Alaska-Anchorage 78, Santa Clara 73 (OT) - oof

Saturday, November 25, 2017

11/22 recap

@Providence 66, Belmont 65 - life is tough for Belmont.  This is a campus game for the 2K Classic, Belmont couldn't even get into the main draw of a tourney.  Then lose by a point to a legit tourney team, losing whatever small chance they had at bubble relevancy.  Such is life

Tourneys everywhere:

Battle 4 Atlantis:
NC State 90, Arizona 84 - well there's one upset
Tennessee 78, Purdue 75 (OT) - and there's another
Northern Iowa 61, SMU 58 - no worries for SMU, they get their quality win chance against Zona anyways.  UNI kind of gets snookered here, any chance at a legitimate at-large profile now all of a sudden requires a tourney win
Villanova 66, Western Kentucky 58 - a disaster for Nova.  The other 2 best teams lose, and are on the opposite side of the bracket.  Tennessee, UNI, and NC State are decent, but Nova loses all access to signature win chances.  Meanwhile Arizona and Purdue are still on a collision course and both have a chance to salvage a quality win out of this trip.  Life ain't fair

Notre Dame 67, Wichita St 66 - UND walks away with the signature win here, Wichita will need to find a signature win elsewhere to use to get a top-2 seed
Marquette 94, LSU 84 - not an awful tourney for Marquette either, they grab 2 decent wins out of it
Michigan 68, VCU 60 - not great for a VCU team that's looking at no help in A-10 conference play
Chaminade 96, California 72 - wait, what?  WHAT?!?!?!

Cayman Islands:
Cincinatti 78, Wyoming 53 - again, what a useless tourney for Cincy
Iowa 95, UAB 85
South Dakota St 95, Buffalo 80
Louisiana 82, Richmond 86 - not sure what to make of this tourney overall.  Lot of results that don't really help any resumes enough.  Iowa punted 2 games to mid-majors.  Louisiana finishes 3rd but Richmond is not very good and Iowa was their other win.  Ouches all around except Wyoming, I guess

Gulf Coast:
Northern Illinois 70, Manhattan 68
Missouri St 71, Florida Atlantic 60
Penn 68, UMKC 65
Towson 70, Georgia Southern 67 - Towson wins, a nice boon to the Colonial.  3 neutral site wins are always a net positive for a mid-major

Great Alaska Shootout:
Cal Poly 73, Charleston 68 - man, this tourney fell by the wayside.  Anyways, a catastrophic loss for Charleston, now on the wrong side of an already weak tourney.  Big blow to the CAA
Central Michigan 71, Sam Houston St 60
Idaho 69, Santa Clara 59
CS-Bakersfield 59, Alaska-Anchorage 39 - an eclectic group of mid-majors here.  Got a WAC favorite, MAC favorite, Southland favorite, and CAA favorite, and Big Sky favorite....not bad.  For now, a big strike to the CAA, a minor boon to the MAC and Big Sky

Fresno St 79, George Mason 73
Louisiana Tech 63, Evansville 61 - LaTech gets the 2 wins here

MGM Resorts:
Ole Miss 79, Rice 62
UNLV 85, Utah 58 - UNLV enters as favorites and gets the 2 wins here

Friday, November 24, 2017

11/21 recap

Signature wins:
@Alabama 77, UT Arlington 76 - yeah, I think this counts as one
@Middle Tennessee 85, FGCU 72 - okay, maybe we're stretching the definition here, but go ahead and find another non-tourney game to highlight today
@Nevada 81, Davidson 68 - meh


Wichita St 80, Marquette 66
Notre Dame 92, LSU 53 - this tournament went to script and WSU/UND is our inevitable endgame
VCU 83, Cal 69
Michigan 102, Chaminade 64

Cayman Islands:
Cincinnati 75, Richmond 48 - this tourney has turned into a waste of Cincy's time
South Dakota St 80, Iowa 72
Wyoming 70, Louisiana 61
Buffalo 96, UAB 91 (OT)

Progressive Legends Classic:
Texas A&M 98, Penn St 87 - two wins according to script for the favorite A&M here
Oklahoma St 73, Pittsburgh 67

HoF Classic:
UCLA 72, Wisconsin 70 - Wisky takes a pretty harmful 0-2 out of this.  You don't want to be the one leaving 0-2 in this kind of tourney setup
Baylor 65, Creighton 59

Gulf Coast Showcase:
Missouri St 69, Manhattan 65
Florida Atlantic 77, Northern Illinois 67
Georgia Southern 78, UMKC 75
Towson 79, Penn 71

Cancun Challenge:
Louisiana Tech 77, George Mason 64
Evansville 59, Fresno St 57

Thursday, November 23, 2017

11/20 recap

wins of note:
North Carolina 96, @Stanford 72 - UNC always seems to do this.  Tacks on a road game to the schedule en route to whatever tournament they're doing.  And road wins are never trivial
@Syracuse 74, Oakland 50 - Oakland was a trendy mid-major pick but they're not putting up scores/results that would follow
Rider 67, @George Washington 65 - just in case you weren't sold on the catastrophic start to the year for the A-10
@Missouri 67, Emporia St 62 - this combined with injury news likely means endgame for Missouri's relevance in this blog for this year

Tournaments everywhere:

Wichita St 92, California 82
Marquette 94, VCU 83 - one of the hidden swing games that make or break a resume.  Marquette moves to the side of the bracket with Wichita and Notre Dame.  VCU loses access to a signature win chance.  It's a disaster for the A-10, who is in real trouble so far in the non-con
Notre Dame 83, Chaminade 56
LSU 77, Michigan 75 - the same situation as the Marquette/VCU game.  LSU gets access to signature win chances, Michigan doesn't.  At least for Michigan, B1G play should compensate

Cayman Islands:
Cincinnati 73, Buffalo 67 - this tournament isn't the greatest for Cincy.  They get a tanking Richmond team next, and Louisiana/Wyoming is on the other half of the bracket.  3 neutral site wins are always positive, and none of the teams are a zero, but there's no elite opponent that they can grab a signature win from here
Louisiana 80, Iowa 71 - Louisiana might actually be the better team here, I think
Wyoming 77, South Dakota St 65
Richmond 63, UAB 50 - actually a really bad loss for UAB and CUSA, given Richmond's struggles

Progressive Legends Classic:
Texas A&M 72, Oklahoma St 55 - the type of swing game SEC teams need to continue winning to improve that RPI
Penn St 85, Pitt 54

Hall of Fame Classic:
Baylor 70, Wisconsin 65 - every Tier 1 win matters
Creighton 100, UCLA 89 - UCLA is in a bit of a weird spot, resume-wise, with suspensions.  Not sure how to value this win for Creighton

Gulf Coast:
UMKC 74, Manhattan 63
Georgia Southern 74, Missouri St 73
Penn 93, Northern Illinois 80
Towson 76, Florida Atlantic 52 - this is all a cute little tournament...Missouri St was probably the favorite here and needed 3 wins to hold serve relative to the bubble....and nope

MGM Resorts Main Event:
UNLV 95, Rice 68
Utah 83, Ole Miss 74 - the two favorites win

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

11/19 recap

Another really light day.  Don't worry, plenty of stuff to recap with the big tournaments coming in the next couple of days.

Signature win of the day:
USC 93, @Vanderbilt 89 (OT) - remember, road wins are solid gold with the new system in place.  This should be a solid Tier 1 win

wins of note:
St Mary's 79, @San Jose St 61 - a lesser opponent, but a road win nonetheless

Too many tournaments.  I don't have much to say about these, frankly

UTSA 90, James Madison 77
Bradley 70, Weber St 64
Coastal Carolina 89, Iona 84
Vermont 66, Northern Kentucky 64 - Vermont gets their 3 wins here and are set up for a big RPI year

Paradise Jam:
Liberty 84, Quinnipiac 72
Houston 78, Wake Forest 73
Drake 90, Drexel 88 (2OT)
Colorado 79, Mercer 70 - Colorado gets 3 wins that are pretty marginal, frankly

Ohio 96, Indiana St 94 (4OT)
Auburn 89, Hofstra 78
Temple 67, Clemson 60 - Temple walks out with the 3 neutral site wins here, a desperately needed win for the reeling A-10
Old Dominion 75, Dayton 67

HoF Tipoff:
Boston College 82, LaSalle 61
Texas Tech 85, Northwestern 59 - wait, what?

Jamaica Classic:
Florida St 90, Colorado St 73
Tulane 63, Fordham 55

Puerto Rico Tipoff:
Illinois St 84, Tulsa 68
Iowa St 75, Boise St 64 - this one stings for Boise.  The MWC is not rife with quality win chances, so every one of these by the boards hurts a lot
South Carolina 79, Western Michigan 66

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

11/18 recap

Real life is really starting to get into the way....we'll get caught up soon enough, don't worry.  Although maybe it's a nice thing to do it this way - get separation from the results, and look back and see what mattered with more clarity.

Road wins by mid-majors that are only of interest to me:  Middle Tennessee over Tennessee St, Charleston over Charlotte, Murray St over Wright St, Nevada over Pacific

@Toledo 87, Oakland 74 - one of the MAC favorites hold off the Horizon favorite
@Maryland 80, Bucknell 78 - Bucknell took the LBSU playbook this year, playing a brutal schedule and getting punished for it.  I don't advise that script for most teams.
UT-Arlington 89, @BYU 75 - a decent road win, and a bad sign for the WCC.  Gonzaga beats a MWC team (USU) if you consider that noteworthy


Bradley 71, UTSA 69
Weber St 73, James Madison 65
Vermont 80, Coastal Carolina 67
Northern Kentucky 85, Iona 72

HoF Tipoff:
Texas Tech 75, Boston College 64
Northwestern 82, LaSalle 74 - kind of a bummer Northwestern didn't find a better tournament

Paradise Jam:
Houston 68, Liberty 66
Wake Forest 72, Quinnipiac 55 - Wake finally wins!
Mercer 78, Drexel 59
Colorado 86, Drake 81

...yeah, good stuff is coming in these tournament, though

Sunday, November 19, 2017

11/17 recap

Signature win of the day:
Virginia 76, @VCU 67 - road win that should be Tier 1 by March

assorted results:
@Vanderbilt 79, UNC-Asheville 76 - UNC-A is half decent
North Dakota St 57, @Missouri St 54 - prospective Summit favorite wins on road at prospective MVC favorite
@New Mexico St 75, New Mexico 56
Virginia Tech 103, Washington 79 - neutral site win
Providence 90, St Louis 63 - Provi gets two kind of useful neutral site wins in 2 days

the lolwat result of the day:
Concordia-St Paul 69, @Milwaukee 55 - wat

Oh my god it's a tidal wave of tournaments!:

Vermont 65, Bradley 64
Northern Kentucky 87, James Madison 78
Iona 80, Weber St 72
Coastal Carolina 83, UTSA 69
Vermont is the best team here and really could use 3 wins

Temple 88, Auburn 74
Old Dominion 62, Indiana St 44
Clemson 78, Hofstra 59
Dayton 79, Ohio 65

Paradise Jam:
Mercer 63, Liberty 48
Drexel 84, Houston 80
Colorado 70, Quinnipiac 69
Drake 77, Wake Forest 74 - boy, Wake sucks

Puerto Rico:
Boise St 82, Illinois St 64
Western Michigan 86, Appalachian St 67
Iowa St 80, Tulsa 78
South Carolina 80, UTEP 56
First round here....looks like the 4 best teams, and the 4 teams closest to bubble relevance, won

Tulane 80, Colorado St 53
Florida St 67, Fordham 43
Miami(OH) 78, LIU 74

Saturday, November 18, 2017

11/16 recap

Signature win of the day:
Xavier 80, @Wisconsin 70 - likely will end up as a Tier 1 win; you can never have a shortage of those

potent potables:
@St John's 79, Nebraska 56 - we'll need to pay attention to St John's this year, probably
St Louis 77, Virginia Tech 71 - goes down as a solid neutral site win for the A-10 and a minor disaster for Va Tech (that can be recovered from, though)
Providence 77, Washington 70 - another neutral site game, although it feels like UW might not be good enough to make this win matter
Belmont 69, @Middle Tennessee 63 - likely won't impact the bubble, but the OVC favorite goes on the road to beat the CUSA favorite.  Interesting
@Utah 77, Missouri 59 - road loss, so no big deal, but if I were Mizzou, I wouldn't want to give up bubble equity during the non-con in spots like this

Puerto Rico Tip-Off:
Illinois St 69, South Carolina 65 - the one common theme with these tournaments is:  DON'T GET TRAPPED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE BRACKET.  South Carolina did untold amounts of damage to its resume with this.  One bad loss and two bad games upcoming, while the other side of the bracket has quality win chances
Boise St 58, UTEP 56 - this also hurts Boise, by the way.  BSU is a team that needs to stack quality win chances on top of each other, and just had one taken away from them
Iowa St 104, Appalachian St 98
Tulsa 81, Western Michigan 74
Big early tourney for Boise, who needs to pile up quality wins before they step into the MWC

Auburn 83, Indiana St 64
Temple 76, Old Dominion 65
Clemson 81, Ohio 76
Hofstra 72, Dayton 69 - not good for Dayton
Interesting little tournament here, as any loss by anybody could be perceived as a bad loss, but the winner will pick up 3 neutral site wins and get a modest resume boost

11/15 recap

signature wins of the day:
Creighton 92, @Northwestern 88 - not a killer for NU, plenty of quality win chances coming.  Bigger deal is a prospective bubble team adding a road win of note

results of note:
@Seton Hall 84, Indiana 68 - Indiana is not good this year
@UCLA 106, Central Arkansas 101 (OT) - wait, what?
BYU 65, @Princeton 56 - road wins are never trivial
@Maryland 79, Butler 65 - two probable tourney teams, so this result is mostly a non-factor for now

Thursday, November 16, 2017

11/14 recap

Signature wins of the day:
Duke 88, Michigan St 81 - truth of the matter is, these wins mean less than you think.  Both teams have treasure troves of signature win chances coming, so the impact of this will be diminished over time.  Still, it's a useful chip to have, but only if one of them is competing for a spot on the 1 line, or both are ranked near each other.  Head-to-head doesn't seem to impact the committee that much
Kansas 65, Kentucky 61 - same deal here, especially with an improved SEC.  These chances aren't as critical to UK anymore

wins of note:
Purdue 86, @Marquette 71 - if you learn anything from this blog, it's that road wins are never trivial

losses of note:
@Arizona St 90, San Diego St 68 - score is concerning, too.  MWC contenders shouldn't be blown out by Pac-12 also-rans....even on the road
Eastern Washington 67, @Stanford 61 - so, that's a terrible loss

interesting results:
Monmouth 80, @Lehigh 72 - ok, maybe Monmouth might still be good
Liberty 79, @Wake Forest 66 - good god, Wake

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

11/13 recap

win of the day:
Minnesota 86, @Providence 74 - our first signature road win?  Road win over a probable tourney team, likely a Tier 1 victory come March.  That's a signature win

wins of note:
Middle Tennessee 72, @Murray St 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Nevada 88, Rhode Island 81 - good matchup of conference favorites.  The home team winning probably means nothing significant to either's resume.  Well, maybe this hurts URI more than you'd think; the A-10 is struggling as a whole so far

catastrophic losses:
Jacksonville St 94, @Richmond 61 - ok, so I think we've established Richmond is not good this year
Montana 83, @Pittsburgh 78 - Pitt probably wasn't going to survive the ACC, but it's always nice to mentally check off a team this early for my purposes
Milwaukee 74, @Iowa St 56

not as hurtful as you think:
@Belmont 69, Vanderbilt 60 - good on Vandy for playing a true road game; this isn't going to hurt them as much as you'd think.  A better SEC will give them chances to rebound, and the committee will forgive the occasional road loss like this

trivial results:
Wichita St pounded CAA favorite Charleston....St Mary's over New Mexico St....USC over NDSU....Notre Dame over Mt St Mary's.  A motley collection of decent-to-good mid-majors go down.  MEAC favorite Morgan St did win on the road at South Florida.  FGCU beat Siena on the road, they might be semi-good.  Old Dominion beat James Madison on the road.  One of the MAC favorites, Western Michigan, lost on the road at South Carolina.  Wyoming beat Oregon St, whoop-de-doo.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

11/12 recap

Get used to the slower pace of the blog updates, at least for the first couple months.

@Kentucky 73, Vermont 69 - if nothing else, it helps cement Vermont's status on the 13 line assuming they eventually get through the A-East
@Washington St 86, Texas Southern 84 (OT) - everyone's favorite SWAC team showing well
@Arkansas 101, Bucknell 73 - along the same veins of mid-major stars, Bucknell hasn't shown as well through two games so far

lol of the day:  Le Tourneau 99, @Northwestern St 84

...not much else on this day.  Plenty of name teams played, they all had service holds at home over relative cupcakes.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

11/11 recap

Notre Dame 72, @DePaul 58 - only notable in that it goes down as a true road win

terrible non D-1 loss of the day:  Ouachita Baptist 81, @Little Rock 79

...there's not a lot going on here today.  Most teams played yesterday, so you're not going to find any results of impact.  FGCU beats Illinois St at home...that's what, the 2nd most impactful score of the day?  Pass.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

11/10 recap

Thus begins the daily recaps on the blog.  A quick reminder to what we do with these:

1) We don't bother mentioning cupcake wins, unless they're notable for some reason.  Duke beating East Bumfuck St isn't notable enough for me to waste the time during typing these things.
2) We pay much more attention to bubble teams and try to feature wins that will matter in March.
3) Remember home wins are diminished and road wins are gold.
4) When the time is appropriate, we'll pay attention to all conference races.
5) During these first couple months, these recaps are all about identifying which teams matter and which don't.

So with that, notable Day 1 results.

Catastrophic loss of the day:  Niagara 77, @St Bonaventure 75 - that's going to look pretty terrible for a probable bubble team in March

lolwat score of the day:  Indiana St 90, @Indiana 69 - wat

Impact results:
UCLA 63, Georgia Tech 60 - neutral site wins have some value
Georgia Southern 85, @Wake Forest 83 - could be catastrohpic, but Wake will have chances to recover
Texas A&M 88, West Virginia 65 - both are likely tourney teams, so eventually this result will be minimized by other key results, but still.  Big positive sign for the SEC on day 1
@Missouri 74, Iowa St 59 - again, SEC just winning these games is a big deal

Interesting results:
Delaware 76, @Richmond 63 - another building block for the Colonial's conference RPI, which has been really good in previous years
@North Carolina 86, Northern Iowa 69 - perhaps interesting to those who assume UNI is at their strength of previous years; they're not
@Navy 71, Pittsburgh 62 - not quite as bad as you'd think since this was a true road game for Pitt
Lamar 74, @Tulsa 67 - on the one hand, Lamar is the rare competent Southland team and Tulsa is bad.  On the other's the Southland, for cripes' sake
@Alabama 72, Memphis 70
UC Riverside 74, California 66
@Monmouth 79, Bucknell 78 - Bucknell is supposed to be an elite mid-major this year...this is a very harmful loss for at-large chances, which might've existed coming into the year

Thursday, November 9, 2017

11/10 S-CURVE

Maybe I'll do a bracket, but this S-Curve should suffice.  Some tweaks made from the offseason bracket.

Quick conference-by-conference thoughts.

ACC - I have them with 8 teams....seems about right.  I don't see potential to max out to double-digit teams this year, but the conference has a high floor.  Plenty of quality win chances to go around.
B1G - I see a beefy middle of the conference, I expect the top 7-8 teams to be solid in the non-con and build up good resumes.  This leads to plenty of quality win chances for bubble teams in March.
Big 12 - The round-robin schedule hurts this conference just a little bit, as I see the bottom few teams dragging down the league.  They should get their usual number of bids.
SEC - The big story to me last year was the work this conference did OOC.  Much better SoS numbers across the board, and now the talent on the teams are starting to catch up.  Not sure if a 3rd team behind UK and UF can rise very high in the S-Curve, but this might be the year they get back to 5 or 6 teams in the NCAAs.
Pac-12 - Ew.
Big East - They've got some problems establishing a second big-time program behind's slowly catching up to them in seeding.
AAC - Very curious to see their seeds in March.  They've been disrespected in previous years, now we'll see how much Wichita changes the math.  I've seeded them conservatively for now, because I'm not completely sold the AAC hate will go away yet.

The 1 line:  Duke, Kansas, Arizona, Villanova
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida
The 3 line:  Notre Dame, West Virginia, USC, Wichita St
The 4 line:  Xavier, Purdue, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
The 5 line:  Northwestern, Minnesota, Miami, Louisville
The 6 line:  Baylor, Seton Hall, UCLA, St Mary's
The 7 line:  Texas, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Rhode Island
The 8 line:  Oregon, Alabama, TCU, Providence
The 9 line:  Florida St, Missouri, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 10 line:  Creighton, Nevada, Michigan, Stanford
The 11 line:  Texas A&M, Maryland, Arkansas, Central Florida, Butler, Virginia
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, Oakland, Texas-Arlington, Charleston
The 13 line:  Middle Tennessee, Bucknell, Vermont, Western Michigan
The 14 line:  Iona, Harvard, New Mexico St, Murray St
The 15 line:  FGCU, South Dakota St, Long Beach St, Furman
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville, Idaho, St Francis(PA), Stephen F Austin, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M

Last 4 in:
Central Florida

Last 4 out:
San Diego St

Next 4 out:
Boise St
Wake Forest

Break it down!
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
Pac-12 5
A-10 2

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Offseason S-CURVE

While teams get bids, not conferences....when doing a preseason S-Curve you can't do it that way.  Otherwise if you add up all the probabilities, Power 6 teams dominate everything.  So do pay attention to the conference breakdown, it'll help describe what I think of each conference coming into the season.  Don't get too literal over placements of individual teams in the middle of the bracket.

The 1 line:  Duke, Kansas, Arizona, Kentucky
The 2 line:  Villanova, North Carolina, Michigan St, Florida
The 3 line:  Wichita St, Notre Dame, West Virginia, USC
The 4 line:  Xavier, Purdue, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
The 5 line:  Miami, UCLA, Minnesota, Louisville
The 6 line:  Seton Hall, Northwestern, Texas, Virginia Tech
The 7 line:  Wisconsin, Oregon, St Mary's, Rhode Island
The 8 line:  Providence, Florida St, Alabama, Baylor
The 9 line:  Missouri, TCU, Virginia, Nevada
The 10 line:  St Bonaventure, Creighton, Stanford, Arkansas
The 11 line:  Oklahoma, Butler, UCF, Iowa, Michigan, VCU
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, Towson, Middle Tennessee, Oakland
The 13 line:  Texas-Arlington, Western Michigan, Vermont, Iona
The 14 line:  New Mexico St, Belmont, Harvard, Bucknell
The 15 line:  FGCU, South Dakota St, Long Beach St, Furman
The 16 line:  Mount St Mary's, UNC-Asheville, Weber St, Stephen F Austin, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:

Last 4 in:

Last 4 out:
Texas A&M
Boise St
Georgia Tech

Next 4 out:
Arizona St

Break it down!
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
Pac-12 5
A-10 3

Offseason BRACKET

1) Duke vs. 16) UNC-Asheville/Norfolk St
8) Alabama vs. 9) TCU
4) Xavier vs. 13) Western Michigan
5) Miami vs. 12) Northern Iowa
@San Diego
3) USC vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) Virginia Tech vs. 11) UCF/Michigan
2) Florida vs. 15) FGCU
7) Oregon vs. 10) Creighton

1) Kentucky vs. 16) Mount St Mary's
8) Providence vs. 9) Virginia
4) Cincinnati vs. 13) Iona
5) UCLA vs. 12) Oakland
3) Notre Dame vs. 14) Belmont
6) Northwestern vs. 11) Oklahoma
2) Villanova vs. 15) Long Beach St
7) Rhode Island vs. 10) Stanford

@San Diego
1) Arizona vs. 16) Weber St
8) Baylor vs. 9) Nevada
4) Gonzaga vs. 13) Vermont
5) Minnesota vs. 12) Middle Tennessee
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Harvard
6) Seton Hall vs. 11) Iowa/VCU
2) Michigan St vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) St Mary's vs. 10) St Bonaventure

1) Kansas vs. 16) Stephen F Austin/Texas Southern
8) Florida St vs. 9) Missouri
4) Purdue vs. 13) Texas-Arlington
5) Louisville vs. 12) Towson
3) Wichita St vs. 14) Bucknell
6) Texas vs. 11) Butler
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Furman
7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Arkansas

Thursday, July 20, 2017

New selection guidelines. Break it down!

A change in the nitty-gritty sheet. In the past, the sheet divides games into 4 categories: games against the RPI Top 50, 100, 200, and 201+.

The big change is the change in cutoff for each of the 4 categories. The first tier is now Top 30 home games, Top 50 neutral site games, and Top 75 road games. And so forth.  We'll do a full breakdown below.

This is a significant on the following levels:
1) They're clearly listening to everyone else. Everyone knows road games are tougher. Now, instead of relying on the committee to view the sheet and make adjustments in their mind, the adjustments will be made on the sheet itself.
2) This shows the emphasis they were putting into these tiers in the first place....which is something most people have underestimated over the years.
3) This is the first step towards getting rid of the RPI as a whole and/or coming up with a better ranking system to analyze teams.  This is a positive step towards recognizing a single number cannot be representative of the value of beating a team.  More information is always needed.

There's still a problem with the arbitrary way they've chosen the cutoffs. There's nothing special about 30, 50, or 75, or any other numbers. Still, this is better than the alternative.

Now, let's look at the actual hard numbers they're using.

Tier 1:
home games against RPI Top 30
neutral games against RPI Top 50
road games against RPI Top 75
- Changes in the tier:  subtracting home games against 31-50 and adding road games against 51-75.

I like the selection of Top 30 for home games.  With very few exceptions, every team in the top 30 is a tournament team.  So every game there represents at least some kind of value.

However, by losing 31-50, something interesting happens.  Some teams in the past, like Kansas or Duke, in order to build a strong SoS, schedule prospective conference champions from mid-major conferences.  Many of these teams wind up in the tail end of the RPI Top 50, causing the SoS of the giant to be inflated higher than it should be, and causing their W-L vs. the Top 50 to be inflated as well.  Using last year as an example, home games against UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, and Illinois St lose value.  Now with this change, home games against mid-major conference champions lose value.  Will opportunities dry up?  And how does this impact mid-major at-large bid chances, when one precious signature win chance (home game at conference leader) comes off the board?

On the flip side, with road games against 51-75 now entering this year....there are actually more mid-majors in this range.  Now the giants can play the occasional road game and add a quality win that might not have been viewed that way in the past.  Using last year as an example, road games against New Mexico St, ETSU, Charleston, and Winthrop now represent signature wins.  So you could actually see more giants playing true road games instead of home games against these types of schools.  Maybe not more than 1 in a given year, but spread across a few dozen teams, the impact could be large.

Tier 2:
home games against RPI 31-75
neutral games against RPI 51-100
road games against RPI 76-135
- Changes in the tier:  subtracting home games against 76-100 and adding road games against 101-135.

One impact of swelling to 351 D1 teams is that you have more teams with winning records occupying RPI 101-150.  Now some of these road games represent solid wins in this structure.  This is an improvement.  If you look, this range has a fairly balanced mix of middling majors and quality mid-majors.  I don't see an advantage gained for either faction here.  The major teams will add a couple of road games to the quality win ledger; the mid-major should also add a few such road games, but now will lose home games against RPI 76-100 in this category.

One conference that might get hurt specifically is the A-10.  They've been very proficient at having a few teams in the RPI 75-125 range traditionally, usually leading to solid W-L records against the Top 100 that get them higher seeds (and more bids).  With only Top 75 home wins now counting, they might get hurt a bit.

You'll also see much more attention paid to unbalanced scheduling.  Most conferences will have 4 teams, give or take a team, ranked in between RPI 75-125.  In most conferences with 14 teams, it's probably a given team would only play one of those four teams twice.  In those 5 total games....if 4 are road games, that's 4 Tier 2 games and 1 Tier 3 game.  If 4 are home games...that's 1 Tier 2 game and 4 Tier 3 games, and a big resume hit (in terms of chances at quality wins, and strength of schedule).  In the latter case, the team might be criticized for a soft SoS when it was simply the luck of the draw.

One big challenge for each conference is finding a strategy for unbalanced schedules.  And more importantly, making sure every team has a solid mix of road games and home games.  An imbalance of road/home games and good/bad opponents will cause a team to skew more than normal in the bubble discussion.

Tier 3:
home games against RPI 76-160
neutral games against RPI 101-200
road games against RPI 136-240
- Changes in the tier:  subtracting home games against 161-200 and adding road games against 201-240.

If a bubble team is a tournament team, they really should handle games against RPI 161-200.  No issue moving those wins down a level.

Usually a bubble team will have a loss or two or maybe even three in this category in the past.  Stuff happens.  But losses in Tier 4 are usually devastating.  Some of those Tier 4 road losses now move up a level, to this tier.  I like it.  I almost want to put every road game in this tier, but I do suppose you should leave some for Tier 4.  This will help a team like Monmouth cope with conference play dragging them down just a little bit.

Tier 4:
everything else

Losses to sub-240 teams, even on the road, are pretty unforgivable...maybe a team can still afford one.  The big thing is home losses to sub-160 teams now slip into this category.  Note that for power conferences, only the truly bad teams slip to sub-160, so I don't think the big boys will be hurt by this.  In fact, I think they're helped in that road conference losses in the top conference will almost never slip into this category.

Sunday, April 2, 2017

End of the season

End 'o the season.  I'm out of things to say, so this is the final post of the '16-'17 season.  We'll try and get some offseason posts up, some big-picture thoughts, but that won't be for a few months probably.  So go home, we're all done here.

Saturday, April 1, 2017


The 1 line:  Villanova (31-3), Kansas (28-4), Gonzaga (32-1), Duke (27-8)
The 2 line:  Arizona (30-4), North Carolina (26-7), Kentucky (29-5), Baylor (24-7)
The 3 line:  Oregon (28-5), Louisville (24-8), UCLA (29-4), Butler (23-8)
The 4 line:  Florida St (25-8), Florida (24-8), West Virginia (26-8), Notre Dame (25-9)
The 5 line:  Iowa St (23-10), Purdue (25-7), Virginia (22-10), SMU (29-4)
The 6 line:  Cincinnati (29-5), Minnesota (24-8), Creighton (25-8), Michigan (24-11)
The 7 line:  Wisconsin (25-9), Maryland (23-8), Miami (21-11), Northwestern (23-11)
The 8 line:  St Mary's (28-4), Virginia Tech (22-10), Wichita St (29-4), Seton Hall (21-11)
The 9 line:  Arkansas (25-9), VCU (26-8), Dayton (23-7), Rhode Island (24-9)
The 10 line:  Marquette (19-12), Middle Tennessee (28-4), Providence (20-12), Oklahoma St (19-12)
The 11 line:  South Carolina (22-10), Michigan St (19-14), Xavier (21-13), Kansas St (20-13), Vanderbilt (19-15)
The 12 line:  Wake Forest (19-13), USC (24-9), Nevada (28-6), UNC-Wilmington (27-5), Princeton (22-6)
The 13 line:  Vermont (28-5), New Mexico St (25-5), East Tennessee St (25-7), Bucknell (26-8)
The 14 line:  Winthrop (24-6), Iona (22-12), FGCU (23-7), Northern Kentucky (22-10)
The 15 line:  Texas Southern (23-11), Kent St (21-13), Troy (20-14), North Dakota (19-9)
The 16 line:  South Dakota St (16-16), Jacksonville St (18-14), New Orleans (17-11), Mount St Mary's (19-15), UC-Davis (20-12), North Carolina Central (22-8)


Last 3 in:
Wake Forest

Last 3 out:
Illinois St

*administrative note:  Marking the date of this post as April 1 in order to pseudo-pin this entry to the top of the blog.  If you're paranoid, this S-Curve was also emailed in to the Matrix.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The disaster that is South Carolina

I think this may need an explanation.

I think everyone can agree, give or take a Wichita State, that South Carolina got the most flagrant seed from the selection committee.  I had them on the 11 line.  Bracket Matrix on the 9 line.  Very few gave them a 7 seed.  They were the most mis-seeded team in the tournament, period.

So don't get trapped by their run!  Their Final Four run does NOT mean that their 7 seed was justified.  Don't fall for that trap.

The real disaster of the situation is, though, that the committee has been rewarded for their bad seed.  They gave a middling power conference team a much higher seed than they deserved, and they got validated.  This just means that in the future, the committee is much more likely to give more middling power conference teams better seeds, instead of mid-majors.

Notice what happened to Middle Tennessee.  Selection committee said they probably would've been an at-large team if they needed it...but got seeded as a 12, below all at-large teams.  Clearly there's a disconnect between selection and seeding that needs to be bridged.  But if all these teams seeded 7th, 8th, and 9th keep winning multiple games or coming close (see S Carolina > Duke, Wisky > Nova, and the Arkansas/UNC close call, for example), there's going to be no motivation for the selection committee to move mid-majors up into those seeds.

So this is what I'm worried about.  The selection committee is going to use South Carolina as validation to keep over-seeding major conference teams and to bury mid-majors.

Friday, March 24, 2017

Conference analysis

This is late, but I always like to look conference-by-conference, and see if there are any outliers or anything unusual to point out.

America East:
Not a bad year for the conference given Vermont trucked everyone.  I'm guessing New Hampshire declined a postseason bid, everyone else eligible went.

All the talk was 10 or 11 bids going in, and the ACC kind of hit the floor of 9 instead.  It just proved that there wasn't quite enough wins to go around.  It's tough to push 6-12 conference teams into the NCAAs.  In the end, Pitt, NC State, and Clemson took just a couple too many wins away from the pool.  Everyone over .500 at least got into the NIT.

The long-term trend isn't good for the conference.  The top 2 were obviously good, but the middle of this conference hurt the cause.  Houston was 12-6 in 3rd place, and couldn't mount a serious charge to the bubble.  The key?  Memphis and UConn, at 9-9, were also sub-100 in the RPI.  Those two, Temple, and Tulsa were all in between 100-150 when their goal should be 75-100.  This is something they'll need to work on.  Those 4 teams need to be on most years.  I am willing to chalk some of it up to variance, though.

Probably an average year for the A-10, given their champ was only on the 7 line and URI just squeaked in.  5 teams below them ranked between 73 and 122 in the RPI, which is the secret sauce to their success.  Interesting that some teams eligible for EIEIO tournaments sat, but GW and Mason played.

FGCU with the double crown here...interesting that Lipscomb apparently turned down the postseason...and two teams (USC Upstate, Jax) got in the CIT with pretty damn awful resumes.  Either the CIT has a A-Sun fetish or they're struggling.

Big 10:
The distribution of bids is about on par for the conference.  Their seeds weren't.  I'm surprised though.  It's tough to get 7 bids out of a conference when there isn't a high-end team distributing quality wins to the other teams.  I don't know how to describe it.  Everyone did just enough in the non-con to survive.

Big 12:
I'd say this is on par with the conference's expectations.  TTU isn't making the NIT, let alone the NCAA, with their scheduling practices.

Big East:
They overachieved a bit, squeaking out 7 bids.  They kind of had a perfect distribution of wins between teams 2-7, with conference records of 12-6, 4 10-8s and a 9-9.  That's pretty lucky.

Big Sky:
The 2nd-4th place teams took postseason bids.  Another example conference that likes to be fed by the EIEIOs.

Big South:
Pretty standard for the Big South.  The other 2 teams that broke away in the conference standings took their CIT well as a 7-11 Campbell, for some unholy reason.

Big West:
A disaster year for the conference.  3rd place team barely got CIT eligible.

A couple strong RPI years for the conference now.  Sadly, it didn't pay off in a better seed for UNCW.  All I can say is to keep plugging along.  Charleston actually got an at-large bid for the NIT, which is a good sign for the future of this conference.  This is trending upwards.  Also interesting:  everyone else turned down the CBI/CIT.  If those tourneys can't pull upper-majors like CAA teams, something's wrong with them.

Considering how far off this conference is, it's kind of amazing Middle Tennessee almost built an at-large profile.  Here's a conference that's shunning the CBI/CIT types, with Rice being the one team that decided to play.  There's a couple teams that deserved some kind of postseason, that obviously passed.

Pretty NIT bid for Valpo.  Profile was just good enough, but didn't think the committee would pull the trigger.  Good for them.  Wright St probably turned down the postseason, which is the only way to explain the fraudulent CBI bid that UIC got.

The conference was secretly really blah behind Princeton.

Down a bit this year.  Poor, poor Monmouth.  Assuming Siena declined the postseason, a pretty fair distribution of postseason teams for the conference.

They have the resources to do better.  I wonder how long this will go before Akron starts to get fed up, because they're always the one on fringe at-large candidacy and can't get close enough.

And frankly they got more postseason teams than they deserved.

Just a catastrophic year.  Everyone 3rd on back sat out postseason, presumably as penance for their crimes against WSU and ISU.  My advice in the future:  don't suck.

Mountain West:
The thing is, I don't think the conference is THAT far away from where it needs to be.  After Nevada, they had 5 teams in between RPI 69 and 98.  This tells me incremental steps forward from those programs will rectify their single-bid status quickly.  They schedule mostly okay, they just need a few swing games.  Obviously they need to be better but I don't see a big philosophical shift needed to fix that.  Interesting that Wyoming in 7th took a CBI bid while 4th-6th in the standings decided not to play (assuming).

Seems fair.

The conference was a bit down, and frankly I'm not sure how many more postseason teams they deserve.

Kind of a disaster the conference just snuck a 4th team in, when their top 3 was this good.  As it turns out...everyone else was terrible.  No other way to paint it.  It's a pretty clear problem with a pretty clear solution for them.  There's nothing in their scheduling practices I think they need to change.  Just play better.

I'm guessing some teams turned down the CBI and CIT because the 6th place team here got the CBI bid.  Secret thing about these recaps:  you can see which conferences are shunning these tournaments.

A big year for the SEC, bigger than you think.  Remember they are in the middle of making great efforts to improve scheduling.  This year, those schedule benefits were reaped.  Vandy obviously got in on the strength of theirs, and the conference schedule didn't sink their overall SoS like it would have in years past.  Further, marginal resumes for Arkansas and S Carolina were enhanced by the SoS numbers.  Look at the RPIs of teams that missed:  UGa 53, A&M 93, Auburn 106, Ole Miss 68, Tenn 79.  In years future, those 5 bids will turn into 6 and 7 with those numbers.  Keep it up!  Good job!  I honestly mean that.

An okay year for them.  All 3 tri-champs got a postseason bid, so all is just.  I'm guessing Chattanooga declined a bid...and why did 8-10 Samford get a CIT invite?

Here's a case where it looks like just about all eligible teams, and basically the top 5 teams in the league, took their CIT bid and went.  Always interesting to compare the conferences who walk away en masse and the ones to take them en masse.

Down a bit from their highs of the past couple years.  Not much else to say here.

Sun Belt:
A good season overall, but that merely earned them the distinction of "best of the rest".  Best conference not to produce a serious NIT at-large candidate.  As you can see, several teams (interestingly, not Arky State though) cashed in for token postseason appearances...which they all deserved, more or less.  Good for them.


A big surge up the RPI for this conference thanks to the top 2 teams, but they didn't pay it off into anything tangible.  Those 2 CBI bids are pretty damn fraudulent.  Grand Canyon interestingly didn't play this year.

This is a pretty standard distribution for this conference.  The middle-to-bottom of this conference just isn't strong enough to support better.  All postseason bids and non-bids were just, IMO.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Let's build a bracket.

Every year, I like to do this exercise.  I build a bracket using the committee's 1-68 seed list.  And see what's different about mine.  Full breakdown below, but I'll put the highlights at the top.  Needless to say, there's a couple questions I have.

- Cincinnati has a legitimate gripe.  They're ranked higher than Maryland; why did Cincy get shipped West instead of them?
- Vandy as the highest 8 seed got sent to Salt Lake City...not sure why.
- I would have swapped VCU and Marquette.  Although Marquette is ranked higher, I think VCU's travel considerations trump Marquette's given what regional sites were available.
- The committee made a mess of the play-in games.  I offer a solution that doesn't involve the Sacramento site below.
- I also would have tweaked the 16 line, but it's no big deal.

Below is the breakdown, and at the end is my bracket.

The 1 line:
1 Villanova - gets Buffalo and the East regional
2 Kansas - gets Tulsa and the Midwest
3 North Carolina - gets Greenville and the South
4 Gonzaga - gets Salt Lake City and West.  You could make an argument Sacramento would be a better site for them, but as it turns out this assignment works better for the Pac-12 teams behind them
Through 1 line, regions remaining:  BUF, GRE, ORLx2, INDx2, MILx2, TUL, SLC, SACx2

The 2 line:
5 Kentucky - their best location is the South regional, and Indianapolis is open
6 Arizona - goes to Salt Lake City.  The West is the obvious regional for them
7 Duke - obviously goes to Greenville.  As far as regionals go, East is better than Midwest
8 Louisville - gets the other spot in Indianapolis, and the Midwest is the open regional
Through 2 lines, seed score:  East 8, West 10, South 8, Midwest 10
Through 2 lines, regions remaining:  BUF, ORLx2, MILx2, TUL, SACx2

The 3 line:
9 Oregon - Sacramento to start.  As for the region, with the West blocked, the Midwest becomes the next best option
10 Florida St - here's where being the 4th best team in a conference is fatal.  Duke, UNC, and UL are ahead of FSU.  With those 3 occupying 3 of the regions, FSU is forced to take the last available region - the West.  At least Orlando is open for them for the 1st 2 rounds
11 UCLA - they're going to have to travel no matter what...but of the two available regions, the South is better than the East.  They take the second spot in Sacramento
12 Baylor - they get the second spot in Tulsa.  As for regionals, the East is the last one available.  The South would be better, but Baylor as the last 3 seed gets no power in this decision.  Let's put a pin in this and revisit later
Through 3 lines, seed score:  East 20, West 20, South 19, Midwest 19
Through 3 lines, regions remaining:  BUF, ORL, MILx2

The 4 line:
Before we begin, we note the conflicts:  Butler can't go in the East, Florida can't go in the South, and WVU can't go in the East or Midwest.  Actually this is pretty lucky, usually at this stage you'd have more conflicts
13 Butler - Milwaukee is their ideal sub-regional, and it's still available.  As for region, South and Midwest are both close to even, but South is slightly better.  We'll put them in the South, knowing we have some flexibility if we need it
14 Florida - Orlando still has a spot available, so they luck out on that front.  Since UF can't go in the South, they can go either in the Midwest or East, with about the same travel.  The East is slightly better, so let's put them there, knowing we can revisit
15 West Virginia - Buffalo is their preferred site out of the 8 total...and somehow is still open.  Amazing that it's working out this well.  14 of 15 teams so far have gotten their first choice of site.  As for region, the Midwest and West are left and Kansas is in the Midwest.  WVU has to go west for now
16 Purdue - Milwaukee is the last site available...and works out pretty well for Purdue.  Midwest is the last region available...and works out well for Purdue again
Through 3 lines, seed score:  East 34, West 35, South 32, Midwest 35

Balance for the top 4 lines looks okay.  Let's revisit a couple things.
- If we flop Baylor and UCLA, we can help Baylor's travel and make things even more balanced.  However, it would make UCLA travel all the way across the country instead of halfway.  Let's leave it as is.
- In a perfect world, it's Purdue as the lowest seed that has to go to the West.  However, the region would them add up to 36, which is teetering on the edge of being unbalanced.  Knowing that, it's better for WVU to go West than Butler or Florida.
- If we put Butler in the Midwest instead, we still can't do anything with Florida...I don't think there's a permutation that helps anyone too much here.

The top 4 lines are set, with very little conflict!  The only issues for individual teams are probably Florida St (but we can't do anything about that) and West Virginia (in a perfect world, Purdue travels).  Regions are pretty balanced.  Let's move on.

The 5 line:
subregional sites for the 5 line:  BUF, ORL, MILx2
17 Virginia - Buffalo is their best choice, but UVa played WVU in the regular season.  This sends UVa careening towards Orlando instead.  This does keep UVa in the East though
18 Minnesota - two Milwaukee spots are open for Minny, but since Purdue is in one of them, Minny takes the spot in the South regional instead
19 Notre Dame - Milwaukee is better for them than Buffalo, but they played Purdue in the regular season.  So they go to Buffalo; although this is the West regional
20 Iowa St - Milwuakee is their preferred site anyway, so this works out well.  Having Kansas in the sweet 16 from this draw isn't ideal, but rematch conflicts sort of tie our hands here.  Plus this puts ISU in the Midwest regional
Through 5 lines, we have not deviated from the selection committee yet.

The 6 line:
subregional sites for the 6 line:  ORL, TUL, SACx2
21 SMU - Tulsa is by far the preferred regional here.  It's the East region, which isn't great, but first weekend takes precedence
22 Cincinnati - Orlando would be better than either Sacramento spot.  This does bury Cincy in the West region, though
23 Maryland - only Sacramento is available.  We'll stick them in the South spot to leave the Midwest spot open for Creighton below
24 Creighton - see above; they get the other Sacramento spot
We have hit our first deviation.  In real life, the committee sent Cincinnati out west and kept Maryland in Orlando.  I'm not really sure why they did this.

The 7 line:
subregional sites for the 7 line:  GRE, INDx2, SLC
25 St Mary's - Salt Lake City in the West region is open.  Perfect
26 South Carolina - Greenville is available for them, which is basically the committee's wet dream.  Perfect, again.  East regional too
27 Michigan - the two Indianapois sites are available for Michigan and Dayton.  Perfect again.  Honestly, it's kind of amazing how neat this all works out.  The South and Midwest regionals are the two available.  Mileage is really close for both teams and regions...Dayton going South is the best advantage for either team, so let's do that
28 Dayton - see above.  By the letter of the law, Michigan should get the South spot, but the advantage is so small that consideration for Dayton should trump it
We do not deviate from the committee on the 7 line.

The 8 line:
subregional sites for the 8 line:  BUF, GRE, TUL, SLC
29 Wisconsin - actually, Buffalo is the best site for them, over Tulsa.  But it's close enough that I wonder if consideration of the regional should mater more.  Midwest over East?  Let's put Wisky in Buffalo for now, which is East
30 Miami - they can't go to Greenville (UNC), so to Tulsa and the Midwest they go instead.  Note that this was the alternate Wisconsin path, but it's better to use it for Miami to help them
31 Arkansas - Greenville and the South is miles better than SLC and the West, obviously
32 Northwestern - the perils of being the last team on a line, they have to take the hike to SLC and the West
We do not deviate from the committee on the 8 line.

The 9 line:
subregional sites for the 9 line:  BUF, GRE, TUL, SLC
Here's where things get fun with conflicts.
Vandy can't go to Greenville, SHU can't go to Buffalo, MSU can't go to Buffalo or SLC, VT can't go to Greenville or Tulsa
33 Vanderbilt - Tulsa and the Midwest region is best available
34 Seton Hall - after conflicts, Greenville and the South become best available
35 Michigan St - Buffalo and SLC are the remaining sites.  See note above.  Oops.  Back to SHU we go!
34 Seton Hall - if we kick SHU out of Greenville to make room for MSU, we have to send Seton Hall to SLC and the West region
35 Michigan St - Greenville and the South region for Michigan St
36 Virginia Tech - Buffalo and the East region is available for them
We have a deviation!  In real life, the committee sent Vandy out to Salt Lake City, and Seton Hall to Greenville, and Michigan St to Tulsa.  In my world, the committee sends Vandy to Tulsa, SHU to SLC, and Michigan St to Greenville.  Vandy as the highest team on the 8 line avoids the travel.  Not sure why the committee went the other way on this.

The 10 line:
subregional sites for the 10 line:  GRE, INDx2, SLC
37 Oklahoma St - they can take either Indianapolis spot; they'll take the Midwest one over the South one
38 Wichita St - Indianapolis works for them too, and they'll take the South one that OSU passes up
39 Marquette - Greenville and the East is obvioulsy better than the western stuff
40 VCU - here's another example of unfairness in being the last team on a line.  Greenville and the East is PERFECT for VCU, while for Marquette it's merely a little better than SLC.  However, SLC and the West for VCU is horrible.  By NCAA rules, VCU has to get screwed so that Marquette is helped slightly.  This is a spot where I would pull an executive decision.
So we deviate from the committee on VCU and Marquette.  Common sense rules.

The 11 line:
subregional sites for the 11 line:  ORL, TUL, SACx2
We've got play-in games, and this gets really messy really quick.  Orlando is a Thu/Sat, Tulsa and Sacramento are Fri/Sun.  Automatically we know Orlando is getting someone to play Cincinnati.  USC has to go to a Fri/Sun site because of travel reasons.
Here's what we know for the PIG guys:  Providence can't go to SAC, Wake can't go to ORL, USC can't go to ORL, SAC, or TUL, and KSU can't go to Tulsa.
So um, you see a minor issue.  USC can't go to ANY of the sites.  They're blocked out by travel (Orlando), regular season rematches (Tulsa), and conference conflicts (Sacramento).  Of the 3 choices, regular season rematches are the one that the committee will violate in this case.  So Tulsa is hosting a PIG winner, and USC is one of the ones going there.  Since Wake can't go to Orlando, let's put them with USC going to Tulsa.  Providence/Kansas St to Orlando.  Let's proceed:
41 Xavier - for non-PIG participants, just Sacramento is left.  X gets the South spot over the Midwest spot
42 Providence - see above
43 Wake Forest - see above
44 Rhode Island - Sacramento in the Midwest is last available
45 USC - see above
46 Kansas St - see above
In real life the committee lost its mind.  They set both PIG participants to Fri/Sun sites, including one in Sacramento.  They did USC/Providence going to Tulsa and Wake/K-State going to Sacramento.  I'm not really sure why they took this route.

The 12 line:
subregional sites for the 12 line:  BUF, ORL, MILx2
Things get a little easier now with one-bid conferences.
47 Nevada - Milwaukee, in the Midwest over the South
48 Middle Tennessee - it's actually pretty close, but Milwaukee is better than Orlando or Buffalo for them.  As it turns out, sending them to Milwaukee helps the two teams below them as well
49 UNC-Wilmington - Orlando, easily
50 Princeton - Buffalo, easily
We do not deviate from the committee on the 12 line.

The 13 line:
subregional sites for the 13 line:  BUF, ORL, MILx2
51 Bucknell - Buffalo is their best spot
52 East Tennessee St - Orlando is their best spot, although it's close
53 Vermont - Milwaukee is left, they get the Midwest because of the team below them who strongly prefer the South
54 Winthrop - the other Milwaukee spot
We do not deviate from the committee on the 13 line.

The 14 line:
subregional sites for the 14 line:  ORL, TUL, SACx2
55 New Mexico St - they'll take Tulsa obviously
56 FGCU - FGCU in Orlando. Perfect
57 Kent St - stuck in Sacramento, we'll give them the South over the Midwest
58 Iona - stuck in Sacramento
We do not deviate from the committee on the 14 line.

The 15 line:
subregional sites for the 15 line:  GRE, INDx2, SLC
59 Northern Kentucky - obviously going to Indianapolis.  South regional is better for them than Midwest, slightly
60 Troy - Greenville is their best fit
61 Jacksonville St - Indianapolis is their choice
62 North Dakota - goes to Salt Lake City
We do not deviate from the committee on the 15 line.

The 16 line:
subregional sites for the 9 line:  BUF, GRE, TUL, SLC
Buffalo and SLC are Thu/Sat; Greenville and Tulsa are Fri/Sun.  Buffalo is earmarked for one PIG winner, we could go for either Fri/Sun site.  Let's give them to the #2 overall seed (Kansas) in Tulsa.  Davis needs the Fri/Sun site for sure; New Orleans would be 2nd on the geographic consideration list, plus Tulsa would be a great regional site for them.  MSM and NCCU can play Thu/Sat then, in Buffalo, which is a decent location for either school.
63 Texas Southern - after the above, SLC and Greenville are left.  TSU actually slightly prefers Greenville...
64 South Dakota St - and SDSU prefers SLC, obviously.  Let's send TSU east to help SDSU out
65 UC-Davis - see above
66 North Carolina Central - see above
67 New Orleans - see above
68 Mt St Mary's - see above
We actually differ from the selection committee on what we do with the PIG.  Not sure why they had Davis play NCCU.

1) Villanova vs. 16) North Carolina Central/Mount St Mary's
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Virginia Tech
4) Florida vs. 13) East Tennessee St
5) Virginia vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington
3) Baylor vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) SMU vs. 11) USC/Wake Forest
2) Duke vs. 15) Troy
7) South Carolina vs. 10) VCU

@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) South Dakota St
8) Northwestern vs. 9) Seton Hall
4) West Virginia vs. 13) Bucknell
5) Notre Dame vs. 12) Princeton
3) Florida St vs. 14) FGCU
6) Cincinnati vs. 11) Providence/Kansas St
@Salt Lake City
2) Arizona vs. 15) North Dakota
7) St Mary's vs. 10) Marquette

1) North Carolina vs. 16) Texas Southern
8) Arkansas vs. 9) Michigan St
4) Butler vs. 13) Winthrop
5) Minnesota vs. 12) Middle Tennessee
3) UCLA vs. 14) Kent St
6) Maryland vs. 11) Xavier
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Dayton vs. 10) Wichita St

1) Kansas vs. 16) UC-Davis/New Orleans
8) Miami vs. 9) Vanderbilt
4) Purdue vs. 13) Vermont
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Nevada
3) Oregon vs. 14) Iona
6) Creighton vs. 11) Rhode Island
2) Louisville vs. 15) Jacksonville St
7) Michigan vs. 10) Oklahoma St