Friday, March 24, 2017

Conference analysis

This is late, but I always like to look conference-by-conference, and see if there are any outliers or anything unusual to point out.

America East:
1 NCAA
1 CBI/2 CIT
Not a bad year for the conference given Vermont trucked everyone.  I'm guessing New Hampshire declined a postseason bid, everyone else eligible went.

ACC:
9 NCAA
3 NIT
All the talk was 10 or 11 bids going in, and the ACC kind of hit the floor of 9 instead.  It just proved that there wasn't quite enough wins to go around.  It's tough to push 6-12 conference teams into the NCAAs.  In the end, Pitt, NC State, and Clemson took just a couple too many wins away from the pool.  Everyone over .500 at least got into the NIT.

AAC:
2 NCAA
2 NIT
The long-term trend isn't good for the conference.  The top 2 were obviously good, but the middle of this conference hurt the cause.  Houston was 12-6 in 3rd place, and couldn't mount a serious charge to the bubble.  The key?  Memphis and UConn, at 9-9, were also sub-100 in the RPI.  Those two, Temple, and Tulsa were all in between 100-150 when their goal should be 75-100.  This is something they'll need to work on.  Those 4 teams need to be on most years.  I am willing to chalk some of it up to variance, though.

A-10:
3 NCAA
1 NIT
2 CBI
Probably an average year for the A-10, given their champ was only on the 7 line and URI just squeaked in.  5 teams below them ranked between 73 and 122 in the RPI, which is the secret sauce to their success.  Interesting that some teams eligible for EIEIO tournaments sat, but GW and Mason played.

A-Sun:
1 NCAA
2 CIT
FGCU with the double crown here...interesting that Lipscomb apparently turned down the postseason...and two teams (USC Upstate, Jax) got in the CIT with pretty damn awful resumes.  Either the CIT has a A-Sun fetish or they're struggling.

Big 10:
7 NCAA
3 NIT
The distribution of bids is about on par for the conference.  Their seeds weren't.  I'm surprised though.  It's tough to get 7 bids out of a conference when there isn't a high-end team distributing quality wins to the other teams.  I don't know how to describe it.  Everyone did just enough in the non-con to survive.

Big 12:
6 NCAA
1 NIT
I'd say this is on par with the conference's expectations.  TTU isn't making the NIT, let alone the NCAA, with their scheduling practices.

Big East:
7 NCAA
They overachieved a bit, squeaking out 7 bids.  They kind of had a perfect distribution of wins between teams 2-7, with conference records of 12-6, 4 10-8s and a 9-9.  That's pretty lucky.

Big Sky:
1 NCAA
1 CBI/2 CIT
The 2nd-4th place teams took postseason bids.  Another example conference that likes to be fed by the EIEIOs.

Big South:
1 NCAA
3 CIT
Pretty standard for the Big South.  The other 2 teams that broke away in the conference standings took their CIT bids...as well as a 7-11 Campbell, for some unholy reason.

Big West:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
1 CIT
A disaster year for the conference.  3rd place team barely got CIT eligible.

Colonial:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
A couple strong RPI years for the conference now.  Sadly, it didn't pay off in a better seed for UNCW.  All I can say is to keep plugging along.  Charleston actually got an at-large bid for the NIT, which is a good sign for the future of this conference.  This is trending upwards.  Also interesting:  everyone else turned down the CBI/CIT.  If those tourneys can't pull upper-majors like CAA teams, something's wrong with them.

CUSA
1 NCAA
1 CBI
Considering how far off this conference is, it's kind of amazing Middle Tennessee almost built an at-large profile.  Here's a conference that's shunning the CBI/CIT types, with Rice being the one team that decided to play.  There's a couple teams that deserved some kind of postseason, that obviously passed.

Horizon:
1 NCAA
2 NIT
2 CBI
Pretty interesting...at-large NIT bid for Valpo.  Profile was just good enough, but didn't think the committee would pull the trigger.  Good for them.  Wright St probably turned down the postseason, which is the only way to explain the fraudulent CBI bid that UIC got.

Ivy:
1 NCAA
The conference was secretly really blah behind Princeton.

MAAC:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
3 CIT
Down a bit this year.  Poor, poor Monmouth.  Assuming Siena declined the postseason, a pretty fair distribution of postseason teams for the conference.

MAC:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
1 CBI/1 CIT
They have the resources to do better.  I wonder how long this will go before Akron starts to get fed up, because they're always the one on fringe at-large candidacy and can't get close enough.

MEAC:
1 NCAA
1 CBI/1 CIT
And frankly they got more postseason teams than they deserved.

MVC:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
Just a catastrophic year.  Everyone 3rd on back sat out postseason, presumably as penance for their crimes against WSU and ISU.  My advice in the future:  don't suck.

Mountain West:
1 NCAA
2 NIT
1 CBI
The thing is, I don't think the conference is THAT far away from where it needs to be.  After Nevada, they had 5 teams in between RPI 69 and 98.  This tells me incremental steps forward from those programs will rectify their single-bid status quickly.  They schedule mostly okay, they just need a few swing games.  Obviously they need to be better but I don't see a big philosophical shift needed to fix that.  Interesting that Wyoming in 7th took a CBI bid while 4th-6th in the standings decided not to play (assuming).

NEC:
1 NCAA
1 CIT
Seems fair.

OVC
1 NCAA
1 NIT
1 CIT
The conference was a bit down, and frankly I'm not sure how many more postseason teams they deserve.

Pac-12:
4 NCAA
3 NIT
Kind of a disaster the conference just snuck a 4th team in, when their top 3 was this good.  As it turns out...everyone else was terrible.  No other way to paint it.  It's a pretty clear problem with a pretty clear solution for them.  There's nothing in their scheduling practices I think they need to change.  Just play better.

Patriot:
1 NCAA
1 CBI
I'm guessing some teams turned down the CBI and CIT because the 6th place team here got the CBI bid.  Secret thing about these recaps:  you can see which conferences are shunning these tournaments.

SEC:
5 NCAA
3 NIT
A big year for the SEC, bigger than you think.  Remember they are in the middle of making great efforts to improve scheduling.  This year, those schedule benefits were reaped.  Vandy obviously got in on the strength of theirs, and the conference schedule didn't sink their overall SoS like it would have in years past.  Further, marginal resumes for Arkansas and S Carolina were enhanced by the SoS numbers.  Look at the RPIs of teams that missed:  UGa 53, A&M 93, Auburn 106, Ole Miss 68, Tenn 79.  In years future, those 5 bids will turn into 6 and 7 with those numbers.  Keep it up!  Good job!  I honestly mean that.

SoCon:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
2 CIT
An okay year for them.  All 3 tri-champs got a postseason bid, so all is just.  I'm guessing Chattanooga declined a bid...and why did 8-10 Samford get a CIT invite?

Southland:
1 NCAA
4 CIT
Here's a case where it looks like just about all eligible teams, and basically the top 5 teams in the league, took their CIT bid and went.  Always interesting to compare the conferences who walk away en masse and the ones to take them en masse.

Summit:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
1 CIT
Down a bit from their highs of the past couple years.  Not much else to say here.

Sun Belt:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
2 CBI/2 CIT
A good season overall, but that merely earned them the distinction of "best of the rest".  Best conference not to produce a serious NIT at-large candidate.  As you can see, several teams (interestingly, not Arky State though) cashed in for token postseason appearances...which they all deserved, more or less.  Good for them.

SWAC:
1 NCAA
lol

WAC:
1 NCAA
1 NIT
2 CBI
A big surge up the RPI for this conference thanks to the top 2 teams, but they didn't pay it off into anything tangible.  Those 2 CBI bids are pretty damn fraudulent.  Grand Canyon interestingly didn't play this year.

WCC:
2 NCAA
1 NIT
1 CBI
This is a pretty standard distribution for this conference.  The middle-to-bottom of this conference just isn't strong enough to support better.  All postseason bids and non-bids were just, IMO.

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