Sunday, March 5, 2017


Pressure points in the S-Curve below:
- #11 overall (3 line):  the top 10 have separated a bit, IMO.  Pretty good battle in the FSU/UF/Duke/Butler/WVU crowd for the other 3 seeds.  Let's wait to see which teams make a run for those in the final week.
- the 6 line:  don't feel great about those teams on the 6 line, I can see teams below them winning their way up from a 7-9 seed into those spots.  Expect me to move many teams in that area over the next week
- the bubble is smaller than usual.  I feel pretty good that everyone in the "next 4 in" list are in good shape.  It's really the last 4 in and the first 2 out that are close calls right now.
- the thinning of the bubble has really helped URI backdoor their way into this.  GaTech and Illinois are 3rd and 4th out at the moment, but they feel like they're miles away to me.
- USC being in legit bubble trouble will surprise some.  I still think they're in relatively good shape, but they're hurt by all these other teams picking up quality wins in conference, something the Pac-12 simply can't supply.  They've got a top 3, but no one else has any value.  It's killed Cal's hopes; it's coming for USC next

The 1 line:  Kansas (28-3), Villanova (28-3), Gonzaga (30-1), North Carolina (25-6)
The 2 line:  Oregon (26-4), Louisville (24-7), Baylor (24-6), UCLA (28-3)
The 3 line:  Kentucky (26-5), Arizona (27-4), Florida St (24-7), Florida (24-7)
The 4 line:  Butler (23-7), Duke (23-8), West Virginia (24-7), Purdue (24-6)
The 5 line:  Virginia (21-9), Notre Dame (23-8), Minnesota (23-7), Cincinnati (26-4)
The 6 line:  St Mary's (27-3), SMU (27-4), Creighton (22-8), Maryland (23-7)
The 7 line:  Iowa St (20-10), South Carolina (21-9), Oklahoma St (19-11), Miami (20-10)
The 8 line:  Wisconsin (22-8), Northwestern (21-9), Seton Hall (20-10), Virginia Tech (21-9)
The 9 line:  Dayton (23-6), Arkansas (23-8), Michigan (19-11), VCU (24-7)
The 10 line:  Michigan St (18-13), Providence (20-11), Middle Tennessee (26-4), Syracuse (18-13)
The 11 line:  Wichita St (28-4), Xavier (19-12), Vanderbilt (17-14), Marquette (19-11), Wake Forest (18-12), USC (23-8)
The 12 line:  Nevada (25-6), Illinois St (26-5), UNC-Wilmington (25-5), Texas-Arlington (22-7)
The 13 line:  Monmouth (27-5), Vermont (26-5), Akron (23-7), Princeton (20-6)
The 14 line:  Bucknell (24-8), Winthrop (23-6), UNC-Greensboro (21-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (18-8)
The 15 line:  South Dakota (20-10), Green Bay (16-12), FGCU (22-7), Texas Southern (20-11)
The 16 line:  UC-Irvine (17-13), Jacksonville St (18-14), Mount St Mary's (18-15), New Orleans (15-11), North Dakota (16-9), North Carolina Central (19-8)

Next 4 in:
Wichita St

Last 4 in:
Wake Forest

Last 4 out:
Kansas St (19-12)
Rhode Island (21-9)
Georgia Tech (16-14)
Illinois (17-13)

Next 4 out:
Houston (20-9)
California (19-11)
Indiana (17-14)
Clemson (16-14)

NIT projections return tomorrow, let's wait for a few more NIT autobids to be secured.  Teams below the 'next 4 out' I'm keeping an eye on:  Iowa...and that's about it.  Maybe Georgia.  Can't say with good faith that anyone else is realistically alive at this point.


HenryMuto said...

You are getting confident with Kentucky being a 3 seed now ? You think Florida losing to Vandy is killing Kentucky's 2 seed chances ?

I think you are off on this one. Bracket Matrix has Kentucky as 7 overall right now.

If Kentucky makes the SEC final there is a pretty high chance Kentucky is a 2 seed. (I really wonder how much those Sunday games affect seeding anymore the way the committee looks at things.

If Kentucky wins the SEC tournament I think they are all but a lock for a 2 seed. You are missing the boat on thinking the committee won't respect the SEC they possibly will get 5 teams in they have a lot of teams (like 11 teams ranked in RPI top 100).

Kentucky has 7 SEC road wins. Did you know that an RPI 90 win on the road is basically the same as winning against an RPI 20 team at home ? That's a lot of good road wins that you are discounting. Look at how many big dogs in the ACC lost those kind of road games.

So for all those RPI top 100 road wins Kentucky has those are the same as having RPI top 50 wins. (Winning vs RPI 90 team on the road is same as winning vs RPI 50 team on a neutral court).

Also factor in Louisville or Duke has to lose in the quarterfinals as they play each other and only 1 of North Carolina, Louisville or Duke can make the ACC finals as they are all on the same side of bracket. So if Louisville goes down before the ACC Finals then they could be moved off the 2 line and down to the 3 line.

Only 1 of UCLA or Arizona is going to make the Pac 12 finals the loser is likely not getting to the 2 line. Arizona does not have a strong profile really for a 2 seed. Only 4-4 vs RPI top 50. (Kentucky is 7-4 vs top 50). UCLA while winning at Kentucky and Arizona is awesome but they are going to be punished for a Non Conf SOS around 250. There is a reason UCLA was a 4 seed (#15 overall) 3 weeks ago on the real committee's first show and even after they already had beat Kentucky at Rupp Kentucky was still 3 seed ahead of them and Kentucky is undefeated since that show.

Kentucky needs to at least make the SEC finals I think to have a legit shot for a 2 seed but I think they get a 2 seed for sure if they win the SEC tournament.

HenryMuto said...

Somehow Jerry Palm still has California in I mean what in the hell ? How is this guy making all this money for CBS ? Cal is not even in the last 4 out. Palm still has Wichita State out I almost want them to lose just so he can look like a fool when they get in. All he says and repeats every day is "they have only 1 top 50 RPI win and 2 top 100 RPI wins so they will not get in". Kenpom of 11 gets them in and a win streak of how many in a row and 0 bad losses.

Palm still has Vanderbilt out he says they need to make the SEC finals to have any chance because the committee has only taken 1 team ever (Georgia 16-14 back in 2001 I think it was) that has been less than 4 games under .500. Right Now Vandy is 17-14 so they would need to win 2 games to get to 19-15 and if they win 2 games they will be beating Florida for a 3rd time. A really bad draw I think for Vandy. I think they wish South Carolina had won yesterday so they would have been 6 seed and would have drawn South Carolina in the quarters instead now they are the 7 seed and draw Florida for a 3rd time if they beat A&M. I am no the fence on Vandy no team has ever got in with 15 losses but they have a great bunch of wins that damn Missouri loss by 20 is the 1 loss holding them back from really being a near lock right now.

HenryMuto said...

I think Georgia Tech is done. Let's check the numbers. RPI of 95. Lowest RPI to ever make the field is like 78 or something. 16-14. They lose another game they will have 15 losses the mark no team has ever got at large with. Non Conf SOS of 270.

They would need to make the ACC finals to have any chance at all.

See how terrible those numbers are ? 15 losses, RPI over 90, Non Conf SOS of 270.

I don't see how they get in.

Andrew said...

I can definitely be wrong on Kentucky. Right now the only reason I have Kentucky at 9 overall is because I originally had Kentucky at 8 and UCLA at 9, and believe the committee would use head-to-head in that specific scenario. Odds are they're going to end up a 2 on my list as the overall odds someone ahead of them messes up is pretty high. Either way, Kentucky as a 3 is really more about the strength of the top 10 teams than it is any real flaw with UK's resume.

I think everyone behind URI on my list is near death.

Jerry Palm is an idiot and is deserving of his own post. He's so bad at his job.

HenryMuto said...

That MAAC conference is so stupid they let Siena host it every year and for a 2nd straight year Monmouth is not going to the dance. This year they go 18-2 and are forced to play a road game in the tournament instead of even a neutral site or the way it works in some mid-major conferences the #1 seed hosts it. What a screw job by the MAAC and it didn't help that their 2nd best player Seaborn was out with injury.

HenryMuto said...

Coach Marshall on Jerry Palm not having Wichita State in if they lost today

Now that was awesome!

Andrew said...

The freelance bracketologists will rise up against the paid bracketologists of the world! We will bring Palm to his knees!