Thursday, November 9, 2017

11/10 S-CURVE

Maybe I'll do a bracket, but this S-Curve should suffice.  Some tweaks made from the offseason bracket.

Quick conference-by-conference thoughts.

ACC - I have them with 8 teams....seems about right.  I don't see potential to max out to double-digit teams this year, but the conference has a high floor.  Plenty of quality win chances to go around.
B1G - I see a beefy middle of the conference, I expect the top 7-8 teams to be solid in the non-con and build up good resumes.  This leads to plenty of quality win chances for bubble teams in March.
Big 12 - The round-robin schedule hurts this conference just a little bit, as I see the bottom few teams dragging down the league.  They should get their usual number of bids.
SEC - The big story to me last year was the work this conference did OOC.  Much better SoS numbers across the board, and now the talent on the teams are starting to catch up.  Not sure if a 3rd team behind UK and UF can rise very high in the S-Curve, but this might be the year they get back to 5 or 6 teams in the NCAAs.
Pac-12 - Ew.
Big East - They've got some problems establishing a second big-time program behind's slowly catching up to them in seeding.
AAC - Very curious to see their seeds in March.  They've been disrespected in previous years, now we'll see how much Wichita changes the math.  I've seeded them conservatively for now, because I'm not completely sold the AAC hate will go away yet.

The 1 line:  Duke, Kansas, Arizona, Villanova
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida
The 3 line:  Notre Dame, West Virginia, USC, Wichita St
The 4 line:  Xavier, Purdue, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
The 5 line:  Northwestern, Minnesota, Miami, Louisville
The 6 line:  Baylor, Seton Hall, UCLA, St Mary's
The 7 line:  Texas, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Rhode Island
The 8 line:  Oregon, Alabama, TCU, Providence
The 9 line:  Florida St, Missouri, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 10 line:  Creighton, Nevada, Michigan, Stanford
The 11 line:  Texas A&M, Maryland, Arkansas, Central Florida, Butler, Virginia
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, Oakland, Texas-Arlington, Charleston
The 13 line:  Middle Tennessee, Bucknell, Vermont, Western Michigan
The 14 line:  Iona, Harvard, New Mexico St, Murray St
The 15 line:  FGCU, South Dakota St, Long Beach St, Furman
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville, Idaho, St Francis(PA), Stephen F Austin, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M

Last 4 in:
Central Florida

Last 4 out:
San Diego St

Next 4 out:
Boise St
Wake Forest

Break it down!
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
Pac-12 5
A-10 2

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