Monday, January 20, 2014

Bubble Watch 1/20, part 4

Head west.

Pac-12


Lockbox


Arizona (18-0) (5-0) RPI 3 SoS 26
Vital signs:  6-0 R/N, non-con SoS 33, 4-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-0 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  @SDSU, N-Duke, @UCLA, @Michigan
Bad losses:  nope
Pretty obvious #1 resume in the country.

Colorado (15-4) (4-2) RPI 19 SoS 13
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  Kansas, Oregon, Harvard
Bad losses:  @Washington, probably
All their signature wins are at home.  So at some point, they should want to add a couple road wins over at least bubble teams to really elevate their seed.

UCLA (14-4) (3-2) RPI 30 SoS 30
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 106, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  @Colorado, Arizona St?
Bad losses:  @Utah
The non-con SoS isn't bad by any means, but it didn't produce a signature win, so the work has to be done in conference play.  The marginal loss to Utah gave back a lot of progress.

Bubble


Oregon (13-4) (1-4) RPI 25 SoS 21
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 53, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  BYU, N-Georgetown, N-Illinois
Bad losses:  @Oregon St?  home to Stanford?
Big slide as of late for this game, and when you peek into the profile, they might actually be missing a win over a tournament team.  They've got work to do.

California (14-4) (5-0) RPI 32 SoS 57
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  @Oregon, @Stanford, N-Arkansas
Bad losses:  @UCSB, but not really
@Oregon is the win that elevates the profile from true bubble to just inside the bubble.  Continue to do work, Cal.

Arizona St (13-5) (2-3) RPI 60 SoS 96
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 183, 0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  lolno.  Marquette or @UNLV?
Bad losses:  Washington, N-Miami
This is not a good resume, period.

Stanford (12-5) (3-2) RPI 55 SoS 46
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 78, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  @Oregon, @UConn
Bad losses:  @Oregon St
However, this team has 2 road wins to lean on in case of emergency.

NIT watch


Utah (14-4) (3-3) RPI 133 SoS 254 - winless on the road, 4th easiest non-con in the country; however they did beat UCLA and BYU, so we'll monitor

EIEIO watch


Oregon St (10-7) (2-3) RPI 105 SoS 83
Washington (11-8) (3-3) RPI 86 SoS 60


Nope


Washington St (8-10) (1-5) RPI 133 SoS 37
USC (8-9) (0-5) RPI 102 SoS 32

Mountain West


Lockbox


San Diego St (14-1) (5-0) RPI 14 SoS 66
Vital signs:  7-0 R/N, non-con SoS 65, 2-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-1 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  @Kansas, N-Creighton, Boise St?
Bad losses:  none
Quantity may not be there.  Quality is.  They're contenders for the 1 line.  Deal with it.

Bubble


New Mexico (13-4) (4-1) RPI 47 SoS 58
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  Cincy, @NMSU?, N-Marquette?
Bad losses:  UNLV, NMSU?
They didn't master the computer profile like they did last year.  As a clear #2 in the MW, should be fine, though.

Boise St (11-5) (3-2) RPI 52 SoS 50
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  Utah St and Utah? 
Bad losses:  Wyoming?
There's nothing even approaching a quality win here.  Season basically boils down to 4 chances against SDSU and UNM

NIT watch


Utah St (11-5) (2-3) RPI 93 SoS 142 - lack of quality wins is the issue here too
Wyoming (9-6) (2-2) RPI 96 SoS 87
UNLV (11-7) (2-3) RPI 116 SoS 110

EIEIO watch


Nevada (9-9) (4-1) RPI 132 SoS 93
Colorado St (10-7) (3-3) RPI 159 SoS 153

Nope


Air Force (7-8) (3-3) RPI 221 SoS 206
Fresno St (6-11) (1-5) RPI 135 SoS 18
San Jose St (4-12) (0-6) RPI 264 SoS 182

West Coast


Lockbox


Gonzaga (15-3) (6-1) RPI 20 SoS 59
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 58, 0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  St Marys, N-Arkansas, um...
Bad losses:  @Portland?
You see the issue here - a startling lack of quality wins.  They're not out of the woods yet.

Bubble


St Mary's (13-5) (4-2) RPI 51 SoS 64
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 91, 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-1 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  @Boise St, sweep of Pacific?  North Dakota St
Bad losses:  Santa Clara, N-George Mason, @Hawaii?
Not much good outside of one win to say about this one.

BYU (12-7) (5-2) RPI 40 SoS 14
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 4, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins:  N-Texas, N-Utah St, @Stanford
Bad losses:  @Loyola Marymount, @Utah?  @Pepperdine?
That great SoS keeps them alive for now, and they juuuust did enough against it to have a chance.  They've got to stop losing marginal road games, though.

EIEIO watch


San Francisco (10-8) (5-3) RPI 103 SoS 72
Pepperdine (11-8) (5-3) RPI 119 SoS 136
Portland (11-8) (3-4) RPI 150 SoS 137
Pacific (9-7) (1-5) RPI 82 SoS 79

Nope


Santa Clara (8-11) (3-5) RPI 192 SoS 144
San Diego (9-9) (2-5) RPI 191 SoS 221
Loyola Marymount (9-10) (2-6) RPI 172 SoS 149

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