Monday, January 20, 2020

Bubble watch: A-10

Dayton (16-2) (5-0) NET 5 SoS 48
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 27, 3-2 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-St Mary's, N-VT, @St Louis?
Bad losses:  none

The bad news is there's no win that holds up as truly signature, that can compare against other contenders for a 1 or 2 seed.  They'll need to lean on the metrics.  Good news is the A-10 is strong enough this year to support those arguments.

Duquesne (15-2) (5-0) NET 55 SoS 260
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 283, 0-0 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  St Louis, N-Indiana St??
Bad losses:  N-UAB, N-Marshall

The problems are glaring in this resume.  Indiana St is the only Q2 game in the non-con, and they are teetering on the edge.  2 Q3 losses.  Good news is they'll get a handful of quality win chances, but they need to win them.  A gaudy record is NOT enough on its own.  Beware.

VCU (13-5) (3-2) NET 45 SoS 68
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 135, 1-3 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  LSU, @Charleston?
Bad losses:  URI at home?

Their SoS is a little weighed down by cupcakes.  They did play tough non-con games.  Problem is they lose to Purdue and WSU and Tennessee.  Needed a 2nd quality win to pair with LSU to feel more comfortable.  One home game with Dayton in hand, they need that or a handful of Q2 wins in conference play.

Richmond (14-4) (4-1) NET 56 SoS 95
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 2-2 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Wisky, @URI?
Bad losses:  N-Radford

5 true road wins is no trivial matter.  And they at least have one non-con win to lean on.  Work to do, but this at-large case is doable.

St Louis (13-4) (3-2) NET 54 SoS 46
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 98, 1-4 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Richmond, @KState?
Bad losses:  none

Kind of a classic resume where they win all the easy games and lose all the tough ones.

Rhode Island (12-5) (4-1) NET 61 SoS 52
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 1-3 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Alabama, @VCU
Bad losses:  @Brown

Kind of just barely on the edge of viable at the moment.  Enough quality win chances in the A-10 to make this resume more attractive though.

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