Sunday, January 19, 2020

Bubble watch: Big East


Seton Hall (14-4) (6-0) NET 12 SoS 24
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 95, 6-3 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Butler, Maryland, Marquette
Bad losses:  @Iowa St?

A lot of quality wins, and road wins (3 road wins in Q1-B).  I do wonder about their upside as a top 2 seed, though.  The depth of wins isn't quite as good as you'd think.

Villanova (14-3) (4-1) NET 17 SoS 20
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 61, 2-3 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Kansas, @Creighton
Bad losses:  none outside Q1-A

Only thing the resume is missing is quality win depth.  There's time for that.

Butler (15-3) (3-2) NET 7 SoS 60
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 147, 2-3 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Stanford, N-Purdue, Creighton?
Bad losses:  @DePaul?

7-0 in Q2 is underrated solid work.


Marquette (13-5) (3-3) NET 30 SoS 37
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 109, 3-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Villanova, N-USC, @Georgetown?
Bad losses:  Providence

They've lost their 4 Q1-A games; that keeps them out of the lockbox for now.  Everything else is more or less in order here.

Creighton (13-5) (3-3) NET 33 SoS 35
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 4-5 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-TTU, Marquette, @Xavier?
Bad losses:  @Georgetown?

Your standard bubble-plus resume.  Done enough to be comfortably in, but nowhere near enough to be safe yet.

Georgetown (12-7) (2-3) NET 52 SoS 23
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 1-4 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SMU? Creighton or N-Texas?
Bad losses:  UNCG at home?  @Providence

They're going to need better quality wins to have a real chance.  Pretty open and shut bubble case.

DePaul (12-5) (1-4) NET 51 SoS 115
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 276, 4-2 vs. Q1, 0-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Butler, @Iowa, TTU
Bad losses:  Buffalo, Provi

DePaul makes the bubble watch.  What a time to be alive.  They've got SoS problems, though.  The good news is that their 4 Q1 wins all appear to be legit, so there's a good framework of a resume they can build on.

Xavier (12-6) (1-4) NET 68 SoS 38
St John's (12-7) (1-5) NET 76 SoS 100
Providence (11-8) (4-2) NET 80 SoS 49

Here's the rest of the conference.  St John's has downballot problems (2 signature wins in WVU and N-Arizona followed up by a large volume of meh losses and a bad non-con SoS).  But I generally lump all 3 in the category of unlikely...but possible.  They have a chance to build an at-large resume, but there's work to do in a fairly deep conference.

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