Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Bubble watch: AAC

Houston (14-4) (4-1) NET 34 SoS 92
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 227, 2-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @WSU, N-Washington?
Bad losses:  home to Okla St probably

The non-con SoS is a modest issue.  The AAC is of average strength for them; which means there's some margin of error but not a lot.  Getting @WSU in their back pocket in conference play put them a leg ahead of the bubble for now.

Memphis (14-3) (3-1) NET 26 SoS 77
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 105, 2-2 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-NCSU, @Tennessee?
Bad losses:  home to Georgia probably

The computer metrics should be of help here.  The resume lacks the high-end result you'd need to feel truly safe, though.

Wichita St (15-3) (3-2) NET 31 SoS 82
Vital signs:  3-2 R/N, non-con SoS 155, 1-1 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Memphis, VCU?  Oklahoma?
Bad losses:  @Temple, but that's not all that bad

Kind of in the same boat as the other top two teams here.  In good, but not great, shape.  Kind of a glut of Q2 wins, but we'll have to wait and see if that spike is just a product of the early conference schedule.

I can't make a healthy case for Cincinnati (NET 61) at the moment....just 2 Q2 wins buttressing the resume.  Tulsa may be 12-6 but their computer numbers are sour.  SMU's resume isn't quite there.  Neither is Temple's.

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