Sunday, February 9, 2020

Bubble watch: WCC/MWC


Gonzaga (25-1) (11-0) NET 2 SoS 176
Vital signs:  11-1 R/N, non-con SoS 287, avg win 167
5-1 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Arizona, N-Oregon, @St Mary's
Bad losses:  none

Those SoS numbers are really, really not good, so don't lose dumb games, Gonzaga.  (they won't, but the warning stands)

San Diego St (23-0) (13-0) NET 1 SoS 128
Vital signs:  12-0 R/N, non-con SoS 86, avg win 160
4-0 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Creighton, @BYU, N-Iowa
Bad losses:  nah

While there's no signature win over an elite team; the wins are over sufficiently great teams.  Which means they can burn a dumb loss and still be fine for the 1 line.  I don't think there's much that they can do to prevent Baylor and Kansas passing them, though.


BYU (18-7) (8-3) NET 23 SoS 32
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 11, avg win 150
2-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Houston, N-Utah St, St Mary's
Bad losses:  @San Fran isn't great; neither is @Boise

The bad losses aren't bad enough to hurt the resume...they played a ton of high end competition (Kansas, SDSU, etc).  And they beat Houston and Utah St (and Va Tech, but that win has evaporated into thin air).  The strong SoS numbers mean they can absorb a dumb loss if they need to.

St Mary's (19-6) (7-4) NET 39 SoS 80
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 138, avg win 166
2-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  BYU, N-Wisky, Utah St
Bad losses:  Santa Clara, Winthrop

Those 2 home losses in Q3 are just killers.  They did good work in the non-con (Nevada, Arizona St, et al) which gives them some cover.  But they're the most vulnerable of the WCC teams now.

Utah St (17-7) (8-5) NET 49 SoS 99
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 109, avg win 169
2-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-LSU, N-Florida, N-North Texas?
Bad losses:  @UNLV, @Air Force

Two dumb Q3 losses are killer.  Already burned both games with SDSU.  The good news is they have 2 quality wins in the hopper.  They also lost to BYU and St Mary's, which doesn't help.  MWC is better this year, and while no signature win chances remain, they have some road chances coming up that can go down as Q2 wins.  Need to win more than they lose in that category (at minimum).

Quick hits:

MWC is having a rebound year, but Colorado St, Boise St, and Nevada are a tier or two away from any kind of bubble talk.

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