Sunday, February 23, 2020

2/22 recap

@Dayton 80, Duquesne 70
@Davidson 77, Rhode Island 75 (OT) - not the worst loss in the world to absorb, but it is one nonetheless.  They spent some wiggle room on this one
@St Bonaventure 75, Richmond 71 - same comment here, except Richmond didn't exactly have wiggle room to begin with

@Duke 88, Virginia Tech 64
Florida St 67, @NC State 61 - no harm to NCSU, they got the split this week they needed
@Louisville 72, UNC 55
Virginia 59, @Pitt 56 - still a ways to go, but starting to feel like UVa has freed itself from the bubble
@Syracuse 79, Georgia Tech 72
Clemson 82, @BC 64

@Memphis 60, Houston 59 - at the death, Memphis picks up a signature win that keeps them bubble relevant for now
@Tulsa 79, SMU 57

Kansas 64, @Baylor 61 - don't overthink things; they're both on the 1 line for eternity
@TCU 67, West Virginia 60 (OT) - WVU is starting to spend multiple seed lines now, careening down the board
Texas 70, @Kansas St 59
@Oklahoma St 83, Oklahoma 66 - the Big 12 bubble is weird after TTU.  Starting to think the distance between UT/OU/OSU is smaller than we thought
Texas Tech 87, @Iowa St 57

Villanova 64, @Xavier 55
@Providence 84, Marquette 72 - I have no idea what to do with Providence, but we can't ignore them anymore
@DePaul 74, Georgetown 68 - might be fatal

Michigan 71, @Purdue 63 - mini-rant:  why does the B1G have exactly 1 game scheduled for this Saturday?  They're getting too cute with their conference schedule

UNLV 66, @San Diego St 63 - what a dumb loss.  At home to UNLV?  I'm not sure whether to take them off the 1 line after just one loss though.  Remember my rule of thumb:  everybody gets one

Oregon 73, @Arizona 72 (OT)
UCLA 70, @Colorado 63 - UCLA isn't in the bubble conversation yet, but we're monitoring the situation
@Arizona St 74, Oregon St 73

@Kentucky 65, Florida 59
@Auburn 73, Tennessee 66
@Arkansas 78, Missouri 68
@Texas A&M 87, Mississippi St 75
LSU 86, @South Carolina 80 - road wins are never trivial
Alabama 103, @Ole Miss 78

@Furman 67, Wofford 66
UNC Greensboro 71, @VMI 68
East Tennessee St 80, @Samford 74

@BYU 91, Gonzaga 78 - Gonzaga's paper resume isn't as strong as you think.  But, this loss isn't all that bad either.  I think they win the head-to-head for SDSU for the 1 seed out west, but that's about it
@St Mary's 92, San Diego 63


HenryMuto said...

I can't believe Providence and UCLA are still in the running for a bid after all those horific non conf home losses they had.

I keep seeing people put West Virginia on the 3 seed I don't get it. Should they even be on the 4 line still ?

I thought the committee made a huge mistake giving them a 2 seed to begin with and I think people are still living off that. They have lost 4 out of 5 games since that bracket show 2 weeks ago. 2 were against Kansas and Baylor I get that but you can't lose every game and remain so high.

Bryan Wilson said...

I am perplexed by Rutgers in the current situation. Are they safe? Most places have them as "should be in". Average 9 seed at Bracket Matrix. But that R/N Record...

Hypothetical situation: Rutgers loses both remaining road games (Penn St, Purdue), wins the remaining home game (Maryland), and loses in first round of Big 10 tourney against someone decent. Final record 18-13, with putrid 1-12 R/N record, single win against Nebraska. I would think that has to be a "No", even with the Maryland win. What do you think?

If Rutgers ends up getting in, that will stand as proof that R/N record has basically no sway. I had Rutgers as an 11 seed this morning, even before the loss to Wisconsin.

I agree West Virginia should be lower, I have them as the worst 5 seed right now. 7-7 against this year's Big 12 is not protected seed material.

Andrew said...

Rutgers is in real big trouble. They have to win another R/N game, period, point blank. Somewhere, anywhere. The home wins are strong enough to keep them in now (especially compared to the rest of the bubble), but that won't be sustainable for another couple of weeks.

WVU's profile works a lot better when you don't lose. Very strong SoS numbers usually means you get overseeded, so this drop right now is just adjusting them to where they should've been all along.

ILLSC said...

A10 comments were on point

ILLSC said...

Except Rhode island may have a little wiggle room soon. But richmond is done

ILLSC said...

Also via is like a 9 seed, but they are good

ILLSC said...