Sunday, February 9, 2020

Bubble watch: others

Northern Iowa (19-3) (10-2) NET 36 SoS 96
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 71, avg win 155
1-1 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Colorado, N-South Carolina, and a bunch of Valley wins
Bad losses:  @SIU, @Illinois St

The road losses are fine, given they're 7-2 in true road games.  They went 2-1 in their 3 power conference game chances (WVU, Colorado, S Carolina), which is huge.  The lack of Q2 games is deceiving - they've got a few more coming in conference play yet.  SIU is 2nd in conference, but their non-con was so bad that they're a Q3 team right now, kind of hurting UNI's resume by accident.

East Tennessee St (18-4) (10-2) NET 44 SoS 94
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 58, avg win 194
2-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @LSU, swept UNCG
Bad losses:  Mercer, ugh

That Q4 loss is terrible, but losing at North Dakota St might hurt worse, just because it keeps them from a more shiny record against Q1/2 teams.  The win at LSU is a profile maker right now, and the non-con SoS was well crafted (with 3 non D-1 teams, though).  This profile has a fighting chance.

Quick hits:

Liberty (21-3) (9-2) NET 59 SoS 311 - the SoS number says it all.  No Q1 wins; 1 Q2 win (Akron).  Nah
Yale (15-5) (5-1) NET 58 SoS 225 - No Q1 wins, just @Clemson in the Q2 ledger.  Harvard is somehow a Q3 loss.  I don't see a viable path forward for them.
Furman (17-5) (10-2) NET 74 SoS 170 - they lack the impact wins they'd need to be in play.
UNC Greensboro (17-6) (9-3) NET 64 SoS 154 - they kinda don't, as they have @Georgetown on the resume to play with.  Plus, beat Furman on the road.  Alas, swept by ETSU, so it'll be near impossible to get the extra quality wins they need to be in play.
Stephen F Austin (18-3) (12-1) NET 85 SoS 336 - oof, that SoS.  What really hurts?  The non-con SoS was 131.  The Southland is that bad.  To me, the losses at Rutgers and Alabama are forgivable since they binked the Duke win.  But there's one ugly Q4 loss.  If that remains the only one all the way to Selection Sunday?  Let's revisit them then.

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