Sunday, February 9, 2020

Bubble watch: Big 12

It's time for another run-through.


Baylor (21-1) (10-0) NET 3 SoS 97
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 182, avg win 118
8-0 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Kansas, Butler, N-Nova, etc etc
Bad losses:  N-Washington is now a mini-disaster

The SoS is rather pedestrian for a usual #1 seed.  Something to keep an eye on, just in case a couple of losses come.

Kansas (19-3) (9-1) NET 1 SoS 1
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, avg win 77
10-3 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, WVU, N-BYU?
Bad losses:  all 3 losses are Q1-A

Can we just take a moment to appreciate this SoS?  Only 3 teams outside the top 100 in NET on the entire thing.  Average win of 77 is insanity.  They do this year in and year out, and have my respect for it.  They even played ETSU and UNCG in the non-con (respect to the SoCon!).  They're 2-3 in games against top-line competition (losing to Baylor, Duke, and Nova).

West Virginia (18-5) (6-4) NET 9 SoS 3
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 5, avg win 89
5-3 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Ohio St, TTU, N-UNI
Bad losses:  @KState and @St John's aren't great

Great SoS numbers, a couple of loose losses on the road prevent a real chance at the 1 line.  Maybe the 2 line too, but the computer numbers are really strong.  Could use a really signature win, and they have 3 more chances in the hopper.


Texas Tech (15-8) (6-4) NET 20 SoS 50
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 178, avg win 166
3-7 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Louisvulle, WVU, @Texas?
Bad losses:  I suppose @TCU

Fun fact:  they've literally played 0 Q3 games.  A mathematical impossibility (that will change).  They've played 6 Q1-A games, and won 2 of them.  That's usually enough for a bubble team, so long as there's no gaping resume holes elsewhere.  And while there's some weak spots (1-3 vs. Q1-B, only 2 true road wins), they're safe...for now.

Oklahoma (15-8) (5-5) NET 48 SoS 46
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 76, avg win 117
3-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  WVU, N-Minnesota?  @Texas?
Bad losses:  @KState, probably

Kind of a junior version of TTU's resume.  Problem is only 1 win over a legit tourney team, which puts pressure down the stretch to pick off another one of those types of wins.  Again, no gaping holes in the resume, but with just 2 true road wins.  Average win is in good shape, though.

Quick hits:

Texas (14-9) (4-6) NET 66 SoS 32 - only 4 wins inside the top 2 quadrants.  One game left with Baylor, and with WVU (both at home)....check back if they win one, just in case

Not sure anyone else is in play.  TCU perhaps, but they're 1-5 on the road and have nothing supporting their home win against TTU on the resume.  The other teams are below .500 overall and have absorbed too many body blows.

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