Sunday, February 9, 2020

Bubble watch: B1G


Maryland (19-4) (9-3) NET 8 SoS 9
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 56, avg win 106
7-4 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Marquette, @Illinois, Ohio St, et al
Bad losses:  all are Q1-A

Under .500 on the road, no true signature signature win, just means they won't be on the 1 line.  2 line in play, but not the easiest road to get there.

Michigan St (16-8) (8-5) NET 13 SoS 55
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 74, avg win 124
3-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SHU, @Minny, Rutgers
Bad losses:  N-Va Tech?

See Maryland comment, only their resume is a half-step behind Maryland's.


Penn St (18-5) (8-4) NET 19 SoS 119
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 332, avg win 127
6-3 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, @MSU, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-Ole Miss, probably

I refuse to lock in a team with that non-con SoS.  It's going to cost them a seed line and maybe more.  Period.

Illinois (15-7) (8-4) NET 33 SoS 61
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 246, avg win 138
5-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Purdue, @Michigan, @Wisky
Bad losses:  Miami

Another team with legit SoS problems.  Only played 2 non-con games in the top 2 quads, and lost both.  That will severely limit upside, although road wins are one good way to masking that problem.

Iowa (17-7) (8-5) NET 28 SoS 86
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 195, avg win 121
6-5 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-TTU, Maryland, Rutgers
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, DePaul?

The non-con SoS, at least it's a little better than above.  But they have 3 Q1 wins in the non-con (Cincy/Syracuse/ISU) that make the difference.  This team has the most potential to skyrocket in seed.

Rutgers (16-7) (8-5) NET 29 SoS 45
Vital signs:  1-7 R/N, non-con SoS 47, avg win 138
3-5 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  SHU, Penn St, Purdue
Bad losses:  N-St Bonaventure

Um, 1 true road win, and does Nebraska really count?  They need to fix this at some point.  None of the chances are easy, but they'll be in some peril without at least 1.

Purdue (14-10) (7-6) NET 26 SoS 49
Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 46, avg win 126
4-7 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, Iowa, N-VCU
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, Texas?

The first test case where we see the balance between a power conference and the number of losses its median members absorb.  10 losses is a lot already, but 7 of them are in Q1-A.  1-7 within that subcategory.  Obviously, more chances abound so this problem will go away, one way or the other.

Wisconsin (14-10) (7-6) NET 37 SoS 2
Vital signs:  3-9 R/N, non-con SoS 15, avg win 113
7-7 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, MSU, @Penn St, etc
Bad losses:  N-New Mexico

7 Q1 wins and that SoS is tough to ignore, even with 10 losses already.  Therefore, in better shape than Purdue.

Ohio St (15-8) (5-7) NET 17 SoS 54
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 148
4-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kentucky, @Michigan, Nova
Bad losses:  Wisky and Minny?

There's no killer loss on the board (none below Q2-A).  This gives them the cushion they needed to use while they slumped.  Should be fine long-term.

Michigan (14-9) (5-7) NET 31 SoS 37
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 99, avg win 132
6-8 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Gonzaga, MSU, Creighton
Bad losses:  Illinois at home is the worst

All losses are either Q1, or 1 loss at the tippy top of Q2-A.  This gives them the cushion they need - if they can stay within reaching distance of .500 against Q1, they'll be in the single digits of seed.

Indiana (15-8) (5-7) NET 61 SoS 47
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 66, avg win 142
3-7 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, FSU, Ohio St
Bad losses:  Arkansas?

No bad losses, but only 1 true road win.  I suggest getting more.  That NET would suggest to me they're pretty vulnerable.

Minnesota (12-11) (6-7) NET 40 SoS 21
Vital signs:  2-9 R/N, non-con SoS 90, avg win 108
3-10 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept OSU, Penn St, Michigan, Wisky
Bad losses:  DePaul?

At some point, winning percentage matters.  And so does a 1-8 true road record.

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