Sunday, February 9, 2020

Bubble watch: ACC


Louisville (21-3) (12-1) NET 7 SoS 24
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 53, avg win 127
3-3 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Duke, @NCSU?  Michigan?  uh
Bad losses:  all are Q1-A

A profile that is getting damaged because of the ACC's failures.  All of a sudden, just 7 wins inside the top 2 quads, which may block them from the 1 line.  Depth of quality wins could be an issue on that front.  Otherwise, the metrics suggest an easy placement on the 2 or 3 line, give or take.

Duke (20-3) (10-2) NET 6 SoS 23
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 7, avg win 111
3-1 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kansas, @Michigan St, @Syracuse?
Bad losses:  SFA, @Clemson?

Same problem as Louisville, but!  A couple extra road wins, an extra signature win, so in slightly better shape.  Duke vs. Louisville, higher a tight argument right now.

Florida St (20-3) (10-2) NET 14 SoS 56
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 96, avg win 117
3-2 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Louisville, N-Purdue, @Florida
Bad losses:  @Pitt?

More of the same.  In slightly better shape with quantity of Q1/Q2 wins, SoS numbers lag a half-step behind.


Virginia (15-7) (7-5) NET 51 SoS 49
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 164, avg win 141
2-3 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  FSU, @Syracuse?  N-ASU?
Bad losses:  @BC, South Carolina, Syracuse and NCSU?

By default, they're the next ACC team listed.  .500 against the top 2 quads, with that SoS number, probably isn't enough.  Problem is, ACC isn't offering any quality win chances outside of the few chances against elite teams.  Home games left in the hopper with UL and Duke; probably need 1 of them to be safe.

North Carolina St (15-8) (6-6) NET 62 SoS 83
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 60, avg win 156
2-2 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @UVa, @UNCG?  Wisky?
Bad losses:  UNC, Ga Tech

I'm not feeling it.  But they have FSU and a home-and-home with Duke left.

Syracuse (14-9) (7-5) NET 65 SoS 174
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 174, avg win 157
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @UVa?  @Notre Dame?
Bad losses:  VT, Notre Dame

Nominally listed, 4-2 in true road games gives them half a chance on the bubble.  Roadies left with FSU and UL, so the resume can be saved.

Quick hits:

Notre Dame (14-8) (5-6) NET 56 SoS 146 - seems alright on the top level - NET in the 50s.  But their non-con SoS is in the 300s, their average NET win is 190, and their only Q1 win is @Syracuse.  Need multiple signature wins.
Pittsburgh (15-9) (6-7) NET 78 SoS 76 - actually have 2 quality wins (FSU, Rutgers) in the hopper.  Also a Q4 loss and bad SoS numbers.  And the scheduling gods have killed them (done with Duke and Louisville after 1 loss, only 1 game with FSU).
Virginia Tech (14-10) (5-8) NET 79 SoS 167 - non-con SoS in the 300s, so the margin of error was small to begin with.

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