Sunday, February 9, 2020

Bubble watch: SEC


Auburn (21-2) (8-2) NET 15 SoS 27
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 38, avg win 113
4-2 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Arky?  Kentucky, LSU
Bad losses:  @Alabama, even though it's Q1

Therein you see Auburn's problems...need more signature wins.  Not saying in-conference wins don't matter, but the lack of high-end non-conference results may keep them off the 2 line (and the 1 line).  We'll see.  Richmond and St Louis were good wins, but won't be enough on their own.

LSU (17-6) (8-2) NET 27 SoS 10
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 10, avg win 124
3-4 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-URI, @Texas?  @Tennessee?
Bad losses:  @Vandy

Really great SoS numbers, but having more or less split all their good non-con games leaves them in a bit of a hole.  The kind of resume that's easily in the tournament and can absorb damage, but with really limited seed upside.

Kentucky (18-5) (8-2) NET 21 SoS 76
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 154, avg win 132
5-2 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Louisville, N-MSU, @TTU
Bad losses:  Evansville LOL

They'd be in a really good spot if they just had 1 terrible loss erased, and did a better job of avoiding cupcakes and dinging the SoS pretty significantly.  4-2 in Q1-A games.  They left themselves a smaller margin of error than most teams towards getting a protected seed, but they're on track to overcome it.


Florida (14-9) (6-4) NET 47 SoS 37
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 31, avg win 123
2-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn, N-Xavier, Alabama?
Bad losses:  @Mizzou, @Ole Miss?

Good SoS numbers.  One Auburn win away from having no true signature wins, with many chances.  Your standard bubble resume.  And 2 with Kentucky and 1 with LSU still coming.

Mississippi St (15-8) (6-4) NET 41 SoS 45
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 101, avg win 148
1-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Florida, Arkansas?  Tennessee?
Bad losses:  La Tech, N-NMSU

They need to stack quality wins, and in a hurry.  However, they're done with Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and LSU for the season.  Big trouble.

Arkansas (16-7) (4-6) NET 38 SoS 23
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 19, avg win 128
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Alabama?  @Indiana?
Bad losses:  South Carolina, @WKU?

Strong SoS but some smoke and mirrors there as it's built on cupcake avoidance and a staggering amount of Q3 home games.

Alabama (13-10) (5-5) NET 42 SoS 20
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 33, avg win 121
1-5 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn,....Richmond?
Bad losses:  Penn, N-UNC counts I guess

Token listing because of the NET ranking.

Quick hits:

South Carolina (14-9) (6-4) NET 76 SoS 68 - 3 Q1 wins...2 Q4 losses.  Can't take them too seriously yet.
Tennessee (13-10) (5-5) NET 67 SoS 41 - good SoS numbers, just too many losses against good competition.

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