Monday, February 5, 2018

Bubble watch part 2 (Big 10 fail tracker edition)



Purdue (23-2) (12-0) RPI 8 SoS 52
Vital signs:
9-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 82
avg RPI win 130
6-2 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-Arizona, N-Butler, Louisville
Bad losses:  I suppose N-WKU
The B1G will cost them a chance at the #1 overall seed by definition.  Note the general lack of depth in their quality wins and the average RPI win.  Can't get there with those numbers.  In a stupid development, they play MSU only once this year.  One final note:  that loss in the Battle 4 Atlantis to Tennessee (that trapped them in the losers bracket) doesn't look so bad anymore.

Michigan St (22-3) (10-2) RPI 21 SoS 91
Vital signs:
8-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 237
avg RPI win 158
2-3 vs. Group 1
4-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-UNC, and, uh
Bad losses:  I guess Michigan at home?
Ouch, that non-con SoS looky dicey.  The PK80 gave them UNC, but UConn and DePaul have provided no nutritional value to the resume, and Notre Dame has tanked.  Add it all up and Michigan St is in unusual SoS territory.  Plus they lost their only game against Ohio St, and their only game against Michigan.  They only get Purdue once.  The SoS Gods are unleashing their fury at this time this year, this might be the unluckiest schedule top-to-bottom in the country.  It's almost as if the karma gods are trying to punish this school for something that happened.  As is they're fine because of the R/N record, but they're going to be stuck in service hold mode for the rest of the year.

Ohio St (20-5) (11-1) RPI 20 SoS 35
Vital signs:
6-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 34
avg RPI win 132
2-4 vs. Group 1
6-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  Michigan St, Michigan
Bad losses:  Penn St at home
The resume of a solid tournament team.  They've mostly won the games they should and lost the games they should, with a flip flip of the Michigan St and Penn St results.  They only get Purdue 1x this year, naturally (boy the scheduling gods punished this conference this year).  Two chances at signature road wins (PU and UM) remain.


Michigan (18-6) (8-4) RPI 30 SoS 62
Vital signs:
5-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 232
avg RPI win 162
2-5 vs. Group 1
2-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Texas, @Michigan St
Bad losses:  N-LSU?
When you go to Maui and get LSU, VCU in a down year, and Chaminade.  Oof.  And UCLA and Texas and UNC?  How is this 232 overall in the non-con SoS?  The cupcakes hurt more than usual.  Right now they're in a very scary spot - marginal resume with little chance of an impact win coming up.  Massive home game with OSU down the road.

Should be out:

Nebraska (17-8) (8-4) RPI 58 SoS 94 - only one Group 1 win (Michigan), only one Group 2 win (@Northwestern), and a non-con SoS of 262.  And they're done with every team in legit NCAA contention, with just a home game against Maryland left to really make an impact.  It's going to take something special to get there.
Maryland (15-9) (5-7) RPI 55 SoS 38 - non-con SoS approaching 200, only 1 win in either the first two groups (albeit against Butler).  They do have some bullets left to add to that number (4 in total), but I wouldn't be optimistic

I'm not even sure others warrant mentioning right now.  Presented without comment, I give you the non-con SoS ranking of other select teams in the conference:
Penn St 258
Minnesota 219
Indiana 185
Northwestern 234
Iowa 231
Wisconsin 109
Illinois 164
Rutgers 333

Holy mother of God!

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