Pressure point 1: #1 overall. Virginia has surpassed Villanova. It doesn't really matter long-term, but still.
Pressure point 2: #4 overall, 1 line. I'm going to say the Big 12 champ will leap an ACC non-champ, most other things being equal. Kansas has better resume depth at the moment over Duke.
Pressure point 3: #7 overall, 2 line. Clemson/Auburn/Oklahoma range. There's some different angles the committee can tackle this from. I'm going to lean towards Auburn's road record and OU's win over Kansas as differentiating them from Clemson for the time being.
Pressure point 4: #10 overall, 3 line. I do think the committee does like to reward dominant teams in relevant conferences, and I think Cincy and Zona both get a resume bump as a reward.
Pressure point 5: #14 overall, 4 line. Things get weird behind Tennessee. Flaws start to become noticeable. I can be talked in or out of the order of the next few teams here. One sneaky fact: TTU's non-con SoS is rallying a bit. So is WVU's. So let's be a little gentler on their seed for the time being.
Pressure point 6: #25 overall, 7 line. This is where we start to see the bubble slowly creep in. A few teams mostly safe but with plausible paths to miss the NCAA tourney. URI and Nevada escape this group and move up to the 6 line. This is where non-con SoS starts to matter ('sup, Creighton). Gonzaga is in a weird spot where their conference is shredding up their SoS numbers. They should be fine, I think.
Pressure point 7: #30 overall, 8 line. Every single legitimate business at-large contender can at least flop down 1 Group 1 on the table for their at-large resume. Except Wichita and Boise. This situation should resolve itself in due time for Wichita, but still.
Pressure point 8: #37 overall, 10 line. This is where the true bubble starts. Teams with legitimate flaws. You can argue for almost any order of teams you want to here.
Pressure point 9: #40 overall, 10 line. NC State's non-con SoS? Yikes. But I can't ignore the signature wins either. Sigh.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas
The 2 line: Duke, Xavier, Auburn, Oklahoma
The 3 line: Clemson, Arizona, Cincinnati, North Carolina
The 4 line: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Kentucky, West Virginia
The 5 line: Michigan St, Ohio St, Seton Hall, Florida
The 6 line: Rhode Island, Miami, TCU, Nevada
The 7 line: St Mary's, Gonzaga, Butler, Louisville
The 8 line: Creighton, Wichita St, Arizona St, Arkansas
The 9 line: Michigan, Texas, Florida St, Alabama
The 10 line: Texas A&M, Providence, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Houston, Washington
The 12 line: Boise St, Syracuse, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: William & Mary, Vermont, South Dakota St, East Tennessee St
The 14 line: Louisiana, UC Santa Barbara, Rider, Belmont
The 15 line: Montana, Wagner, Wright St, Bucknell
The 16 line: Penn, Radford, FGCU, New Orleans, Savannah St, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
North Carolina St
Last 4 in:
Last 4 out:
Next 4 out:
Break it down!:
Big 12 6
Big East 6
Preliminary NIT projections:
The 3 line: St Bonaventure, Temple, South Carolina, BYU
The 4 line: Nebraska, Utah, Central Florida, Mississippi St
The 5 line: Wyoming, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma St
The 6 line: Memphis, Toledo
---the NIT bubble traditionally falls around this spot (middle of 6 line)
Power programs with bursting bubbles: Colorado, Boston College, Iowa St, Stanford, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn St
Your way-too-early CBI projections:
Charleston vs. Old Dominion
Northeastern vs. VCU
Furman vs. Georgia St
Bradley vs. Ball St
Murray St vs. Southern Illinois
Northern Kentucky vs. Missouri St
Fresno St vs. UC Davis
South Dakota vs. Utah Valley
Other teams in clear range of the CBI/CIT: Illinois St, Davidson, Hofstra, Towson, San Diego, Grand Canyon, UAB, Marshall, UNC Greensboro, Wofford, Canisius, Iona, Georgia Southern, UNC Asheville, Oakland, Lipscomb, Stephen F Austin