Friday, February 16, 2018

2/17 S-CURVE

WTF point #1:  1 line, #4 overall
I'll cede to the committee and put Auburn over Kansas.  I'm not convinced that'll hold through March, but I'll give it to them for now.

WTF point #2:  4 line, #16 overall
It doesn't feel right having one of those Big 12 teams there, and there's just no good candidates to work with.  So we'll give Gonzaga a bone here.

WTF point #3:  5 line, #20 overall
I stared at this one forever.  I have no idea.  There's literally no one who deserves that spot.  No one.  When in doubt, go with the committee overseeding a team whose conference has manipulated the RPI numbers the best.

WTF point #4:  6 line, #24 overall
Ok I'll admit, two big jumps for SEC teams here.  Same reasoning as before - as teams fall apart above them, I'm going to err on the side of the committee throwing a bone to the conference with strong SoS numbers.  It also helps that the Big East's next best teams are showing some pretty significant flaws at the moment.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Auburn
The 2 line:  Kansas, Duke, Texas Tech, Purdue
The 3 line:  Michigan St, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Clemson
The 4 line:  Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio St, Gonzaga
The 5 line:  West Virginia, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas A&M
The 6 line:  St Mary's, Miami, Nevada, Alabama
The 7 line:  Missouri, Kentucky, Creighton, Florida
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Butler, Houston, Florida St
The 9 line:  Wichita St, Providence, Arizona St, TCU
The 10 line:  Michigan, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Arkansas
The 11 line:  Middle Tennessee, North Carolina St, UCLA, Kansas St, USC
The 12 line:  Texas, St Bonaventure, New Mexico St, Buffalo, Loyola
The 13 line:  Charleston, Vermont, Louisiana, South Dakota St
The 14 line:  East Tennessee St, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, Montana
The 15 line:  Canisius, Bucknell, Wright St, Wagner
The 16 line:  Harvard, Winthrop, FGCU, Nicholls St, Savannah St, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Next 4 in:
Virginia Tech
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Kansas St
St Bonaventure

Last 4 out:
Penn St

Next 4 out:
Boise St
Western Kentucky

Break it down!
Big 12 7
Big East 6
Pac-12 4
B1G 4
A-10 2


HenryMuto said...

Hard to believe Kansas can lose all those home games and some to non tournament teams and be that high it's as if the committee didn't even care much about those losses and only looks at wins.

Kansas on the court isn't as good as the seed they are given they are a 4 seed at best with the type of team they are. They are ripe for an upset if they fall to the 3 or 4 line but that won't happen hopefully Bucknell is the 15 seed to their 2 as Bucknell is way better then their resume would suggest top 9 players back from a team that was pretty good last year.

Glad to see you didn't over react to Ohio State's loss I see others dropping them to the 5 line which makes no sense I mean they were the freaking underdog at Penn State who isn't a bad team not sure why they struggled early this year but my god they are pretty good when I watch them.

HenryMuto said...

Cincy back to back losses still best win is against Houston at home...........Still never could understand committee giving this team a 2 seed with zero quality ncaa level tourney wins.