Sunday, February 25, 2018

2/26 lesser tournament projections

This will likely be the only in-depth look we take at these tourney projections this year.  We'll do a couple NIT ones close to Selection Sunday once the autobid picture is a bit clearer.


In reality, the cutline usually happens around the projected 6 line (10 or so automatic bids per year).

The 1 line:  Syracuse, Marquette, Georgia, Utah
The 2 line:  Western Kentucky, Baylor, Nebraska, Boise St
The 3 line:  Mississippi St, Penn St, Oklahoma St, Washington
The 4 line:  Temple, Oregon, Notre Dame, Northeastern
The 5 line:  Old Dominion, Maryland, South Carolina, Colorado
The 6 line:  Stanford, LSU, Davidson, Toledo
The 7 line:  BYU, Boston College, SMU, Tulsa
The 8 line:  Indiana, Central Florida, Fresno St, Southern Illinois

The quick and dirty bracket (yeah I know I piled all the Pac-12 teams into a single bracket, I don't care)
1) Syracuse vs. 8) Indiana
4) Northeastern vs. 5) Old Dominion
3) Penn St vs. 6) Toledo
2) Western Kentucky vs. 7) Boston College

1) Georgia vs. 8) Central Florida
4) Temple vs. 5) South Carolina
3) Mississippi St vs. 6) Davidson
2) Baylor vs. 7) SMU

1) Marquette vs. 8) Southern Illinois
4) Notre Dame vs. 5) Maryland
3) Oklahoma St vs. 6) LSU
2) Nebraska vs. 7) Tulsa

1) Utah vs. 8) Fresno St
4) Oregon vs. 5) Colorado
3) Washington vs. 6) Stanford
2) Boise St vs. 7) BYU

TAKE NOTE.  Now we're into the nether regions of projections.  CBI and CIT.  Truth is, plainly, we don't know what teams want to play in these and what teams don't.  Therefore, I am making the following assumption in these projections:  everyone will play.  I will make the projections assuming everyone who is eligible is in.

Now, many of these teams will not play, so there will be plenty of spots left for teams who do want to play.  These projections are a way of me identifying the teams who will definitely have spots available and will likely be able to dictate road/home terms during these tourneys.

CBI projections:

Georgetown vs. Hofstra
Canisius vs. VCU

Memphis vs. Belmont
Willam & Mary vs. East Tennessee St

South Dakota vs. Illinois St
Wright St vs. Ball St

Wyoming vs. Utah Valley
San Diego St vs. UC-Santa Barbara

CIT projections:

UMBC vs. Colgate
Albany vs. Harvard
Marshall vs. Austin Peay
St Francis (PA) vs. Radford

Lipscomb vs. Georgia St
Georgia Southern vs. Furman
Wofford vs. Iona
North Carolina A&T vs. Texas-Arlington

Bradley vs. St Louis
Drake vs. Western Michigan
Stephen F Austin vs. UNLV
New Mexico vs. SE Louisiana

San Francisco vs. Weber St
Idaho vs. UC Davis
Grand Canyon vs. Northern Colorado
San Diego vs. Eastern Washington

Other teams in good shape for getting a chance to play:  Eastern Michigan, Towson, Seattle, Texas-San Antonio, UAB, Mercer, IPFW, NIagara, Portland St, Jacksonville St, Tennessee TEch, Cal St-Fullerton, Hawaii, Hartford, Winthrop, UIC, Oakland, Mount St Mary's, Navy, Lehigh, Sam Houston St, Lamar

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