Friday, February 9, 2018


*Boise St is currently listed as the Mountain West champ, if you're wondering about the machinations of their current seed.  I can't seed them on the 11 line because their presence would mess with the seed of the play-in game winners.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas
The 2 line:  Xavier, Clemson, Auburn, Duke
The 3 line:  Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Michigan St, North Carolina
The 4 line:  Tennessee, Ohio St, West Virginia, Arizona
The 5 line:  Oklahoma, Rhode Island, St Mary's, Miami
The 6 line:  Kentucky, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Florida
The 7 line:  Butler, Texas A&M, Nevada, Creighton
The 8 line:  Louisville, Florida St, TCU, Michigan
The 9 line:  Wichita St, Texas, Alabama, Arizona St
The 10 line:  Missouri, Providence, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee
The 11 line:  North Carolina St, UCLA, Houston, USC, Washington, Syracuse
The 12 line:  Boise St, New Mexico St, Buffalo, Loyola
The 13 line:  Charleston, Louisiana, East Tennessee St, South Dakota St
The 14 line:  Vermont, Rider, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
The 15 line:  Belmont, Wright St, Bucknell, Wagner
The 16 line:  Penn, UNC Asheville, FGCU, Nicholls St, North Carolina A&T, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Next 4 in:
Middle Tennessee***
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Boise St***

Last 4 out:
Virginia Tech
Kansas St
Western Kentucky

Next 4 out:
St Bonaventure
New Mexico St***

Break it down!:
Big 12 6
Big East 6
Pac-12 5
B1G 4


HenryMuto said...

Xavier as a 2 seed ? I can't agree with that at all. If they beat Creighton they will be a lock for a #1 seed on Selection Feb 11th Sunday.

I would say if they did the Feb 11th show tonight X would be a #1 seed for sure but I can't prove it of course.

Kansas has a lot of nice wins but 3/4 home losses including to non tourney teams means X is above them and X might be above Purdue as well.

You may be off the hook if X loses to Creighton or Purdue loses to MSU causing you to put X as a #1 seed before Feb 11th.

X as of today is 100% a #1 seed.

HenryMuto said...

I don't agree with Cincy being #9 on the S-Curve. I can't say your wrong though I have no idea if the real committee screws that up as well because they may be fooled by the great record and the "quad 1/2" wins" which none are over a sure fire NCAA tourney team. I think Cincy is a 4 seed but that is just my opinion. Honestly I have no clue if they NCAA will give them a 2,3 or 4 seed on Feb 11th I want to see most of all how they are ranked on the S Curve. I used to wonder about Ohio State as well if they would have got into the top 16 if they lost to Purdue but now I no longer have to wonder on them.

Again I can't say your rating of Cincy is wrong since I think the committee might do it as well I just don't agree that they should based on NCAA tourney level wins which are basically none.

HenryMuto said...

Will you be posting your updated top 4 seed lines on Feb 11th before the show ?

If you do I will post mine as well before the show just for fun to see how we compare.

Andrew said...

If I have time to post them I'll put something up before the mock. But I don't think much will change.

I can't shake 3 metrics Kansas has in their favor: 9 Group 1 wins (to 6 for X), #1 SoS in the country (#10 for X, which is obviously really good, but it's not #1), and avg RPI win of 81 (which is historically now).

I'm also making the assumption that Kansas has the Big 12 title in tow and Nova has the Big East title. Although I suppose Texas Tech technically owns the B12 lead and X technically owns the Big East lead. So if the committee walks into the room using those standings, then I can see X over Kansas.

But I just think those are 3 metrics that the committee has historically overseeded.

Andrew said...

I wouldn't have a problem with moving Cincy to a spot right in between West Virginia and Arizona, I think. They're up there as a belief that not losing in a very long time earns you a buffer with the selection committee that can't be explained by numbers.

Bryan Wilson said...

The fact is, nobody really knows what will happen with the new metrics being used. It might be totally different and much more computer number based with Sagarin, KenPom, BPI, etc. being used or it could just be the same old nonsense as previous years that we've gotten used to.

Unknown said...

Should computer rankings really be relied on that much? I get that they're more predictive, but they underrate wins. That should be what matters, not putting up a big point differential.

HenryMuto said...

Well too bad the show wasn't today instead of tomorrow as we will never know now. Kansas lost and Xavier won so X is a clear #1 seed now though I am pretty sure if they did the show today X would been a #1 seed today.

HenryMuto said...

Who the hell is the 4th #1 seed ??????????????????

Xavier isn't just a #1 seed they are #3 overall now locked 100% anything else would be absurd.

#1 Virginia
#2 Villanova
#3 Xavier

Those have to be locks otherwise the committee isn't taking today into account.

#4 overall ?????????????????

Kansas loses again
Purdue loses again
Auburn lost their chance Wednesday
Michigan State really ????????????????????

They didn't have a #2 seed worthy profile before today but they really giving it to Purdue after MSU just beat them ? They really giving it to Kansas who has 4 home losses.

HenryMuto said...

DePual 80 @ Providence 63

What the hell is this ?

Andrew said...

Computer rankings should matter when they help us reconcile disagreements between what the eye test tells us and what the traditional resume tells us. They're more useful in 2017 Wichita St situations where we don't have enough data points on a "traditional" resume to properly value them.

Can't wait for tomorrow. This has a chance of being legitimately wild as far as seeding between the 2 and 3 lines go. Some people are going to be way off.

Andrew said...

And fine, Xavier. You can have the 1 line. Jeez. This is going to be a mess. Purdue can keep the 4th 1 seed for now, but I don't like it.

HenryMuto said...

Virginia just lost at home to Va Tech what the hell is this ?

I honestly now have no idea who will be #1 or #2 but it will most likely still be between Nova and Virginia.

#3 should be X

#4 who the hell knows.....honestly if they use resume they can't put Michigan State there but who the hell goes there ?

Maybe they go back to Kansas despite the recent losses because of all the strong wins.

I can't see Purdue at #4 overall now with 2 straight losses.

What seemed like an automatic 1-2-3 overall to start the week has turned into complete chaos.

Purdue went from #1 team in the Big Ten to #3 after 2 games.

HenryMuto said...

My Kentucky team sucks.