Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Bubble watch part 3 (ACC edition)


Virginia (22-1) (11-0) RPI 1 SoS 16
Vital signs:
8-1 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 77
avg RPI win 107
6-1 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Duke, UNC, Clemson, N-URI, etc etc
Bad losses:  none
No need to elaborate on this profile.

Duke (19-4) (7-3) RPI 7 SoS 23
Vital signs:
8-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 17
avg RPI win 111
4-2 vs. Group 1
3-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-Michigan St, @Miami, N-Florida
Bad losses:  @St John's, @BC?
It'll be tough to get a 1 seed if those record against Group 1 and Group 2 keep the same ratio.  All other aspects of the profile are plenty fine, with the probable exception of being just 4-3 in true road games.  They'll need to lift that slightly.

Clemson (19-4) (8-3) RPI 4 SoS 12
Vital signs:
7-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 52
avg RPI win 112
4-4 vs. Group 1
6-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Ohio St, @Florida, UNC, Miami
Bad losses:  N-Temple, but who the hell knows with them these days
This is a very Duke-ish profile, right down to the 4-3 road record.  Solid group of wins.  All the losses are reasonable, give or take an NC State on the road.  No losses outside Group 1.

North Carolina (17-7) (6-5) RPI 11 SoS 4
Vital signs:  7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 6
avg RPI win 102
4-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Tennessee, Clemson, N-Ohio St
Bad losses:  NC State at home perhaps, Wofford!
The damage is probably now done in order to get a 1 seed, but I'd like to point out that they have a staggering 6 (SIX!) Group 1 games still on the schedule.  This profile can change rapidly, so pay attention going forward.


Miami (17-5) (6-4) RPI 18 SoS 44
Vital signs:
9-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 127
avg RPI win 156
3-4 vs. Group 1
3-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-Middle Tennessee in Diamond Head might be the best?
Bad losses:  @Ga Tech
A merely okay non-con that featured a loss to New Mexico St (isn't that bad).  Their best ACC wins so far are Louisville at home, NC State and Va Tech on the road.  Not bad, but by the end of the season, most bubble teams will be able to show those types of wins in their resume.  They'll need to add something more substantial by the end of the year.  Miami wins the Eff You award from the scheduling gods this year, only getting Duke, UVa, UNC, and Clemson once apiece, which really puts pressure to hold the fort in the other games.

Syracuse (16-8) (5-6) RPI 43 SoS 24
Vital signs:
4-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 22
avg RPI win 130
1-4 vs. Group 1
5-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @Louisville, Buffalo?  Va Tech?
Bad losses:  @Wake perhaps, home to Notre Dame, @Ga Tech!
Thank god for that Louisville win, because otherwise the profile is very lean at the moment.  They'll have quality wins chances coming up, and they'll need to cash in a couple.  Good news is the SoS is a boon at the moment, but the non-con wins (Maryland, UConn, Georgetown) aren't holding up well, and a loss at home to Bonaventure stings.

Virginia Tech (16-7) (5-5) RPI 67 SoS 93
Vital signs:
5-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 286
avg RPI win 179
2-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  UNC, N-Washington?
Bad losses:  N-St Louis
Uh oh, that non-con SoS.  That is usually accompanied by a lack of depth of quality wins.  A problem that is fixable in the near future.  The schedule is backloaded with signature win chances everywhere, so buckle in.  This profile isn't close to being complete yet.

Florida St (17-6) (6-5) RPI 41 SoS 70
Vital signs:
7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 299
avg RPI win 162
5-2 vs. Group 1
1-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  UNC, Miami, @Louisville, @Florida
Bad losses:  @Wake, @BC
More non-con SoS madness!  At least they've got something in conference to lean on for the time being, as well as the weird 4-1 vs. Group 1 mark.  This is your garden variety 8/9 seed resume at the moment that can easily swing in either direction.  The schedule is manageable down the stretch, if they win the games they should they'll be fine.

NC State (16-7) (6-4) RPI 63 SoS 71
Vital signs:
3-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 292
avg RPI win 177
4-4 vs. Group 1
0-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  N-Arizona, Duke, Clemson, @UNC
Bad losses:  Greensboro at home, N-UNI
How can someone who plays in the Battle 4 Atlantis have a non-con SoS of 292?  How?  A ridiculous cavalcade of cupcakes.  The good news is that when you have high-end wins this high, you can survive it.  All they honestly really need to do is win the games they're supposed to.  Tougher to do than say, because most of the schedule is traps (roadies at worse teams, home games against fellow bubble teams).

Louisville (16-8) (6-5) RPI 42 SoS 20
Vital signs:  3-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 59
avg RPI win 155
1-6 vs. Group 1
2-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins:  @FSU, um
Bad losses:  none, surprisingly
The classic good bad team.  Beat just about everyone they're supposed to.  Worst losses are Syracuse and FSU at home.  And they beat FSU on the road to balance that out.  So, they just simply need to add quality wins to make the tournament.  There's no other options there.  Road games against bubblers and home games against kings coming up.  So, they must get one, and preferably two or three to be safe.

Everyone else off the board:
Boston College has a non-con SoS approaching 300, and the win over Duke is great, but there's just no depth of wins in their resume.
Notre Dame has fallen off a cliff, which is a shame as the resume early on was good enough.

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