Sunday, February 25, 2018

2/26 S-CURVE

I got to about the 7 line, and I wanted to throw up.  You can order the next 20 teams in any order you want to.  It's a hot mess, and I blame the SEC, which has like 57 bubble teams right now.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 line:  Duke, Michigan St, North Carolina, Auburn
The 3 line:  Purdue, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
The 4 line:  West Virginia, Ohio St, Gonzaga, Arizona
The 5 line:  Clemson, Rhode Island, Wichita St, Kentucky
The 6 line:  Nevada, Creighton, TCU, Seton Hall
The 7 line:  St Mary's, Miami, Butler, Arkansas
The 8 line:  Florida, Michigan, Houston, Oklahoma
The 9 line:  Texas A&M, Missouri, North Carolina St, Middle Tennessee
The 10 line:  USC, Providence, Alabama, Arizona St
The 11 line:  Florida St, Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Texas, UCLA
The 12 line:  Louisville, Kansas St, New Mexico St, Loyola(Chi), Buffalo
The 13 line:  Charleston, Louisiana, Vermont, South Dakota St
The 14 line:  Rider, Murray St, UNC-Greensboro, Bucknell
The 15 line:  Montana, Northern Kentucky, Penn, Wagner
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville, FGCU, Nicholls St, UC Irvine, Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Next 4 in:
Arizona St
Florida St
Virginia Tech
St Bonaventure

Last 4 in:
Kansas St

Last 4 out:

Next 5 out:
Western Kentucky
Boise St
Mississippi St


HenryMuto said...

Saint Mary's is going to be hard to seed. I don't believe they are a 7 seed in fact I think they are a bubble team. They have that fantastic 27-4 record but where is the beef ?

1 quad 1 win
2 quad 2 wins

2 quad 3 losses

non conf SOS 177, SOS 161

Avg RPI win 187

Thinking 10-11 seed and they better make it to the WCC Finals or they may be on the outside looking in on selection Sunday.

HenryMuto said...

Interesting you have Michigan so low. I see Michigan at the 5 seed line in a lot of brackets.

HenryMuto said...

Wow Middle Tennessee as a 9 seed highest I seen just about anywhere. Most have them as 11 seed. So your saying they can afford a loss and still make it easy. Last year they didn't get that kind of safety with a 12 seed even after winning the conf tournament. I would like to see both MT and Western Kentucky make the dance so I hope MT wins out then they play in the finals and then I hope Western Kentucky wins a close game and both make it.

HenryMuto said...

Wow you have Baylor way out.

HenryMuto said...

It's amazing how high everyone has Duke with only having 3 quad 1 wins (before tonight's game).

It's like is the quad wins matter or not ? Michigan State only 3 total losses but is being held down with only 3 quad 1 wins (and a terrible non conf SOS).

HenryMuto said...

Interesting I just went back and looked at the Feb 11th show time frame Duke was sitting on 4 quad 1 wins when the show began and 2 weeks later they are at 3 quad 1 wins. I wonder what effect that would have had if they had the show yesterday. I expect they pick up a few more so who knows. Just found that interesting.

Andrew said...

I should probably be treating St Mary's closer to Wichita St circa 2017, but I just have no faith in the 7-10 lines right now. That's also why Middle Tennessee gets a bump up.

In many cases, the answers to your queries can be found in non-con SoS. Michigan 270. Middle Tennessee 6. Duke 14.

Baylor has 2 road wins on the year, merely an okay non-con SoS of 131, and an average RPI win of 155. I just can't find a metric or quality to get excited about except for a couple great home wins....which the committee has a history of rejecting when it's your only good resume quality.

HenryMuto said...

Glad to have you back by the way.

I just have no faith in the committee giving MT that high of a seed based on what happened last year. I hope they get it I just doubt it happens. If they win out then maybe we shall see where they stand but they won the C-USA tournament last year and got a 12 seed (I had them as an 11 last year inside the bubble if they had lost yet clearly they would not have made it).

Anyway greatest time of the year.

Down goes Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Those 3 quad wins looking weak now. Still get NC coming up though.

Brent said...

Michigan's nonconference strength of schedule is already built into its other ratings - KenPom (#16), Sagarin (#13), RPI (#23). Each of those suggest a seed of 4-6, certainly not 8. You can't call out non-conference strength of schedule as a separate metric as if it isn't already accounted for in each of those rankings. If someone were ranking purely by record, then overall strength of schedule is clearly relevant but you're double-counting to try to measure it separately, no?