Sunday, February 3, 2019

Bubble Watch - Pac-12 fail tracker

Washington (18-4) (9-0) NET 27 SoS 49
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 18, 2-3 vs. Quad 1, 2-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 152
Signature wins:  @Oregon, @Oregon St?  @Colorado?  Jeez
Bad losses:  N-Minnesota, I suppose

Well, at the least, they’re winning the games they’re supposed to.  No real bad losses…but they lost their 4 quality win chances in the non-con.  Best non-con win is San Diego, and we know conference play won’t be bountiful with more quality win chances.  Still, there’s some value in just plain winning.  Their non-con SoS is a weird number.  When you look at the list of opponents…that ranking is a bit fraudulent.  Don’t give that number too much weight.

Arizona St (15-6) (6-3) NET 60 SoS 65
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 46, 3-1 vs. Quad 1, 5-3 vs. Quad 2, avg win 130
Signature wins:  Kansas, N-Mississippi St, N-Utah St?
Bad losses:  Utah, Princeton, @Vandy and Stanford?

They’re the one team in here that actually posted non-con results.  The question is how much they mean when you punt away a few games you shouldn’t have.  MSU is a bigger win that people will realize – having a second signature win to buttress the first one is a nice thing to have, especially when quality win chances are not easily found in conference play.  They had a bad break losing their scheduled game with San Francisco, and as it turns out they only get Washington once in the Pac-12.  There’s a path to at-large selection, especially given their metrics, but it’s not easy.

Arizona (14-8) (5-4) NET 65 SoS 71
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 1-5 vs. Quad 1, 3-3 vs. Quad 2, avg win 164
Signature wins:  N-Iowa St, Oregon St?  @UConn?
Bad losses:  swept by the LA schools

Meh.  A case where they beat the teams they should, but have lost all chances at reasonable signature wins short of ISU.  And they’ll be light on chances to fix that Quad 1 win mark.  This will put immense pressure on their one game in hand with Washington.  An argument can be made, but I’m not feeling particularly motivated to make it.

Oregon St (14-7) (6-3) NET 72 SoS 97
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 215, 1-3 vs. Quad 1, 4-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 165
Signature wins:  @Oregon, N-ODU? N-Penn?  Yikes
Bad losses:  A&M, Kent St

A courtesy listing, as the lack of quality wins and non-con SoS take out their chances pretty quickly.  Already spent a home game against Washington.  Not much hope outside of conference standing, which is really false hope anyways.

Oregon (13-9) (4-5) NET 66 SoS 46
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 68, 2-5 vs. Quad 1, 1-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 167
Signature wins:  N-Syracuse, @Arizona, @Utah?
Bad losses:  UCLA, Texas Southern

Another courtesy listing; at least they have a couple decent wins to lean on if they get hot.

Off the board:
USC doesn’t have much; their only two Quad 1-2 wins are homies against the Arizona schools.  Terrible road record.  Can’t do it.  UCLA’s two Quad 1-2 wins are @Oregon and Arizona.  No terrible losses and a really good SoS, but way too many lost chances at quality wins.  Utah’s avg win is 200.  Colorado’s is 209.  You just can’t make a case for any of these teams.  I had to list the Oregon schools just to have something to kinda write about.  This conference is a disaster.  Arizona St’s two non-con wins are propping up the entire conference right now.

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