Sunday, February 24, 2019

2/23 recap

@VCU 85, George Washington 57
@Dayton 70, St Louis 62

Duke 75, @Syracuse 65
Virginia 64, @Louisville 52 - it's going to be really tough to move UVa out of the top 2 overall right now.  They can probably spend multiple losses and still be okay
@North Carolina 77, Florida St 59 - UNC solidifying as a 2 seed; FSU probably will straddle the 4/5 edge from here on in
Virginia Tech 67, @Notre Dame 59
@Clemson 76, BC 66

@North Florida 75, Liberty 70 - catastrophic loss for Lipscomb, who needs Liberty to be as strong as possible to maintain any at-large hope.  Contrast the A-Sun at-large candidate with the SoCon one.  SoCon is having a big season, top 10 conference.  A-Fun isn't good, at all, behind the top two.  Wofford will benefit, Lipscomb will be punished

@Houston 71, USF 59
@Temple 84, Tulsa 73
Memphis 88, @Wichita St 85

@Texas Tech 91, Kansas 62 - goddammit Kansas.  Back to the 3 line you go.  Bigger news is TTU adding a key piece to their resume, easier to justify them on the 3 line now
@TCU 75, Iowa St 72 - TCU was slipping a little too close to the bubble; this should mitigate any concern
@Kansas St 85, Oklahoma St 46
@Oklahoma 69, Texas 67 - UT's 12th loss.  The raw accumulation of losses is a problem, but in this current bubble climate, I have to imagine both teams are safe at the moment
@Baylor 82, WVU 75

@Marquette 76, Providence 58
@Creighton 82, Georgetown 69 - bubble teams win these games sometimes.  Georgetown doesn't appear ready for that yet
@St John's 78, Seton Hall 70 - in a bubble vs. bubble battle, when the home team wins, I usually consider it status quo for both teams going forward.  Won't change either's outlook after this one

Purdue 75, @Nebraska 72
Wisconsin 69, @Northwestern 64
@Maryland 72, Ohio St 62 - it's a tough ask, but OSU probably needs to do something of substance in the next couple of weeks, just in case

James Madison 104, @Hofstra 99 - shame that the CAA has been a non-factor nationally this season

@Nevada 74, Fresno St 68
Utah St 78, @Boise St 71 (OT)

@Belmont 97, SIUE 75 - can we talk again about how Belmont and Murray St play only once this year?  Someone fire whoever is in charge of the OVC
@Murray St 103, SEMO 67

Oregon St 67, @USC 62 - let's go ahead and confront this real truth:  Oregon St is the 3rd best team in the Pac-12, and has a bubble case.  Remember, they have both ASU and Washington left, so they've got a legitimate business chance to improve this resume.  Not dead!
Utah 92, @Washington St 79
@UCLA 90, Oregon 83 - on the other hand, this is probably the end of Oregon's chances.  Although they have the same schedule OSU does
@Washington 64, Colorado 55

@Kentucky 80, Auburn 53 - UK acting like a 1 seed
@LSU 82, Tennessee 80 (OT) - hey, remember a couple weeks ago when I said LSU was overrated?
@Ole Miss 72, Georgia 71
@Florida 64, Missouri 60
@Alabama 68, Vandy 61
@Mississippi St 76, South Carolina 61 - okay, we can probably safely discard USC now

Wofford 72, @Furman 64 - probably the end of Furman's hopes.  All at-large hopes are on Wofford now...and if you ask me, they've done enough.  They do have 2 road cupcakes to go, but if they handle them...they better be in no matter what.  Running the table in the #10 conference, 7 Q1/Q2 wins.  I don't care, put them in the damn field no matter what

@Gonzaga 102, BYU 68
St Mary's 66, @San Diego 46 - I guess St Mary's is alive on the bubble, but I'm not seeing much of a case.  They do have a Gonzaga game in hand next week, so it's not impossible
@Santa Clara 68, San Francisco 65 - ok, now it's really, really over


HenryMuto said...

I think Lipscomb is very happy that Liberty lost. I think they would rather take their chances playing at home in the championship game than hope they lose a road game to Liberty then the committee takes them. For Lipscomb to get a home Conf final game now all they need is to win their final 2 games and have North Florida win or FGCU lose and they lock up #1 seed via the NET ranking (or North Florida better record than FGCU)

HenryMuto said...

I would like to see Wofford win their final 2 Southern games and then win the first game in their conf tournament which should lock them up (up to 19th in the NET!) would still even have had a good RPI mark of 27 if that was still in place.

So with 19th in the NET and winning next 3 games this would likely put them in the Semi's against Furman again where I would now be rooting for Wofford to lose so we get 2 Southern teams in.

I would have really liked to have seen Wofford pick up either the Oklahoma or Miss State games earlier in the year but it didn't happen.

Still if they win out until Semi-s then lose to Furman it be great to get 2 teams in the Southern they really deserve 2 teams in but the committee will never take anyone besides Wofford.

HenryMuto said...

I think Kentucky moved past Tennessee for 4th #1 seed but Tennessee will get a chance to get that back next weekend when they host the Travis-less Wildcats. What I really want to see is Kentucky get past either Duke or Virginia to get the South but it looks unlikely.

If I was sure the committee would give Kentucky a #2 seed in the South I would take that over #1 seed in the MW.

Really needed Louisville to beat Virginia yesterday.

Kentucky I think can still get #1 in the MW if they lose to Tennessee then LSU wins the #1 seed in conf tournament then Kentucky would face off with Tennessee in the Semi-s and if they beat them there that should put Kentucky back to #1 in the MW.

We all know the stupid committee does not account for the SEC final so it might help Kentucky to be 2/3 seed in the SEC tournament and get to play 1 of Tenn/LSU in Semi-'s rather than playing Miss State or South Carolina.

Bryan Wilson said...

My model thinks Wofford should still be fine for at-large losing 2 more games (1 of last 2 and once in the conference tourney) but that would eat up all of their equity. Losing the last 2 regular season games and somewhere in the conference tourney would put them on the cut line and it could go either way.

HenryMuto said...

The problem with losing 1 of the last 2 regular season games is they are against very bad teams. If they had lost to Furman then they should have been fine.

Also I don't trust the committee so I rather they not lose 1 of the last 2 and then go ahead and lose in the semis or finals to get a 2nd Southern team in assuming it is against 1 of Furman, UNCG or ETSU.

HenryMuto said...

Michigan State upsets Michigan on the road. Didn't see that coming with no Ward.

Andrew said...

One important thing to remember. CNET for the SoCon is 10. Conference is strong this year. This isn't a typical mid major candidate who's trying to survive a bad conference. Furman/ETSU/UNCG have propped Wofford up. I think they're home free with wins over 2 cupcakes.