Friday, February 15, 2019

2/16 S-CURVE

I don't know; you tell me what to do with the bubble.  The good news is that it will naturally constrict over the next month, but that's a motley group of teams in and around the bubble right now.  It's not hard to see why that's the case; the 5-7 lines are very strong IMO.  They're vacuuming up all the wins, leading to a strong middle of the field but a weak back end.

The 1 line:  Duke, Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan
The 3 line:  Marquette, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, LSU, Louisville, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas St, Villanova
The 6 line:  Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida St, Iowa
The 7 line:  TCU, Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Buffalo
The 8 line:  Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor, St John's
The 9 line:  Washington, Wofford, Ohio St, Auburn
The 10 line:  Seton Hall, VCU, Minnesota, Texas
The 11 line:  Alabama, Arizona St, Lipscomb, North Carolina St
The 12 line:  Central Florida, Utah St, Oklahoma, Indiana, Belmont, Davidson
The 13 line:  Hofstra, New Mexico St, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC-Irvine, Loyola(Chi), Texas St
The 15 line:  Northern Kentucky, South Dakota St, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Canisius, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Arizona St
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Central Florida
Utah St

Last 4 out:

Next 4 out:
St Mary's

Break it down!:
B1G 9
Big 12 8
Big East 4
Pac-12 2
A-10 2


HenryMuto said...

How the can Michigan State move from #8 overall to #5 overall because Kentucky lost on a buzzer beater at home to a top 4 seed LSU team and has 4 losses after a 10 game winning streak and won at Mississippi State compared to a Michigan State team that had just lost 3 in a row before winning at Wisconsin and home vs Minnesota. Michigan State has a home loss to Indiana and a road loss to Illinois and 5 total losses.

This is wrong but I have no way to prove it. The committee would not shoot MSU up from 8 to 5 because Kentucky lost 1 game to a top 20 team even if at home. The whole picture has Kentucky still ahead of Michigan State. Losing at home to Indiana is worse than anything Kentucky has done. Losing at Illinois worse than anything Kentucky has done. Kentucky has better top level win vs NC.

I see too many "bracket experts" move MSU to 5 over Kentucky this week. The committee isn't jumping them from 8 to 5 over Kentucky based on a 2 point loss at home on blown call.

Kentucky is still 5 today. If they lose tonight then that changes things.

HenryMuto said...

This guy gets it (The #2 ranked bracket expert). He still has Kentucky at 5 and rightfully so.

Andrew said...

Just to troll Kentucky fans. It's the best.

But I do think LSU is a bit overrated. Even I felt like I was putting them up too high where they are right now on the 4 line. So I do think it's a worse loss.

MSU just has too many Quad 1 wins at this point to ignore. And don't focus on the 3 spots, focus on the gaps between the four teams on the 2 line. I had them pretty razor thin going into this week, so it wouldn't take much for a team to make a major jump. Losses by the teams ahead of them was good enough for me.