Friday, February 22, 2019

Bubble watch: Big East


Marquette (22-4) (11-2) NET 19 SoS 42
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 97, 8-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, avg win 123
Signature wins:  Wisky, N-Louisville, Nova
Bad losses:  @Indiana probably, St John’s?

Ton of high-end wins in the non-con (add KSU and Buffalo to that list above).  They are weighted down a bit by a few cupcakes, which will cost them any reasonable hope at the 1 line, and maybe even the 2 line.  Otherwise, no nits to pick with this resume.

Villanova (20-7) (11-3) NET 27 SoS 17
Vital signs:  9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 4-5 vs. Q1, 9-2 vs. Q2, avg win 114
Signature wins:  N-FSU, @Butler, St John’s?
Bad losses:  @Penn, Furman?

For a name team, that’s sure a marginal list of quality wins.  They’re not in danger or anything, but boy that’s flimsy.


St John’s (19-8) (7-7) NET 49 SoS 61
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 209, 6-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, avg win 151
Signature wins:  swept Marquette, Nova, N-VCU
Bad losses:  DePaul, Provi, G’town?

Tough to ignore 6 Q1 wins and 3 high-end wins.  Also tough to ignore a modest SoS and other modest metrics, plus a couple meh losses.  They should be fine (the road/neutral record should have some value) though.  They’re out of chances for impact wins, which is fine; they just need to keep their nose clean anyways.

Seton Hall (16-10) (7-7) NET 64 SoS 51
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 3-6 vs. Q1, 8-1 vs. Q2, avg win 113
Signature wins:  N-Kentucky, @Maryland, St John’s?
Bad losses:  St Louis, Xavier, DePaul

3 Q3 losses are very damaging at this point, and they’ve got an honorary Q3 loss at DePaul as well.  This resume is made entirely by two signature wins in the non-con.  They matter, but the marginal results elsewhere matter too.  Naturally, their final two home games are Marquette and Villanova.  Can they lose both and be safe?  It’d be dicey.  In fact, the schedule is unfavorable in terms of potential wins, going 2-2 would be good work.

Butler (15-12) (6-8) NET 50 SoS 21
Vital signs:  4-9 R/N, non-con SoS 63, 2-7 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2, avg win 115
Signature wins:  N-Florida, Ole Miss, St John’s
Bad losses:  @St Louis, @Xavier?  N-Indiana

It’s getting tougher and tougher to support the resume.  2-7 true road record.  Pretty good SoS numbers, missed most chances at signature wins though.  It’s an underwhelming mark.  They need quality wins and have one chance left, at Nova.  I’m not optimistic.

Georgetown (16-10) (6-7) NET 69 SoS 75
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 234, 4-4 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2, avg win 148
Signature wins:  Nova, @St John’s, @Butler
Bad losses:  N-LMU, SMU, @Xavier?

They’ve done just enough to squeak onto the board, but there’s not a lot of heft in the resume behind the Nova win.  They still have Marquette on the road in a last ditch effort to make a run at the bubble.

Xavier (14-13) (6-8) NET 89 SoS 56
Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 148, 2-8 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, avg win 139
Signature wins:  @SHU, @Provi, Butler?
Bad losses:  N-SDSU, DePaul, @Mizzou

Providence (15-12) (5-9) NET 73 SoS 55
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 164, 2-6 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2, avg win 151
Signature wins:  @Texas, swept St John's, SHU
Bad losses:  Xavier, UMass, @DePaul

Creighton (13-13) (5-9) NET 56 SoS 14
Vital signs:  6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 3-9 vs. Q1, 3-4 vs. Q2, avg win 125
Signature wins:  N-Clemson, Butler, @Georgetown?
Bad losses:  @Xavier

I list the last 3 as safeguards.  Long road for any of them to have a real chance, but in this bubble climate, they still have to be listed.

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