Sunday, February 3, 2019


The 1 line:  Duke (19-2), Virginia (20-1), Tennessee (19-1), Michigan (20-2)
The 2 line:  Michigan St (18-4), Kansas (17-5), Kentucky (18-3), North Carolina (17-4)
The 3 line:  Gonzaga (21-2), Marquette (19-3), Houston (21-1), Louisville (16-6)
The 4 line:  Nevada (21-1), Virginia Tech (18-3), Purdue (16-6), Villanova (18-4)
The 5 line:  Wisconsin (16-6), Texas Tech (17-5), Maryland (17-6), Iowa St (17-5)
The 6 line:  Iowa (17-5), Mississippi St (16-5), LSU (17-4), Florida St (16-5)
The 7 line:  Syracuse (16-6), Kansas St (16-5), Cincinnati (19-3), TCU (15-6)
The 8 line:  Buffalo (18-3), Washington (18-4), Auburn (14-6), Oklahoma (15-7)
The 9 line:  Ohio St (14-7), Baylor (15-6), Minnesota (16-6), St John's (16-6)
The 10 line:  Ole Miss (14-7), Seton Hall (13-9), Indiana (13-9), Arizona St (15-6)
The 11 line:  Texas (12-10), Alabama (13-8), Butler (13-10), North Carolina St (16-6), Temple (16-6), Wofford (16-4)
The 12 line:  Lipscomb (16-4), Davidson (15-5), Hofstra (18-4), New Mexico St (17-4)
The 13 line:  Georgia St (15-6), Bowling Green (13-6), Old Dominion (18-6), Vermont (16-5)
The 14 line:  Princeton (10-5), UC Irvine (18-5), Northern Kentucky (16-6), Loyola(Chi) (13-9)
The 15 line:  South Dakota St (18-6), Jacksonville St (14-7), Bucknell (14-8), Montana (13-6)
The 16 line:  Radford (13-7), Rider (12-9), Sam Houston St (11-8), Robert Morris (10-11), Prairie View A&M (9-11), Norfolk St (10-10)

Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Arizona St

Last 4 in:
North Carolina St

Last 4 out:
Central Florida

Next 4 out:
Utah St
UNC Greensboro
San Francisco

Break it down!:
B1G 9
Big 12 8
Big East 5
Pac-12 2


HenryMuto said...

How is Kansas ahead of Kentucky ? Kansas has 2 more losses and was beat H2H by Kentucky (I know at home but still). Kansas is like 5-4 since the big injury which the NCAA would take into account. No way Kansas would be ahead of Kentucky on the seed line in my view if they did the brackets today. I get Kansas has all those quad 1 wins but how many came before the injury plus they have that dreadful loss to WVU way worse than losing to Seton Hall on neutral court. Plus 5 losses vs 3 has to count for something plus losing H2H.

HenryMuto said...

Good news I just found out the NCAA will do a top 16 reveal show this Saturday according to Andy Katz so we will see who is right on Kentucky vs Kansas if both win out until then.

Really can't wait to see it this year with the new NET used.

Andrew said...

I'm looking at non con SoS of 1 and avg NET win in the 60s (which is historically low). Betting on the previous tendencies of the committee on that one.

HenryMuto said...

Michigan State loses again. I had Kentucky above Michigan State before this loss but I will admit that I could see someone else having MSU higher though I didn't agree but this loss for sure knocks them below Kentucky.

Kentucky will be no lower than 6th overall seed come Saturday show and has a real shot now to be in the Louisville region if they are a #2 seed.

Andrew said...

I wonder if the top #2 seed will get their geographic preference. Might depend on where Gonzaga lands on the S-Curve. UNC got shipped west last year as the top #2 seed for balance.

Bryan Wilson said...

I did some tinkering with my formula for my computer seeding and, true to what you told me last week, the closest I could get it to matching your S-line and the current Bracket Matrix involved completely nuking SOS. It now has virtually no influence in the formula. It has some implicit influence because I still weight G1 and G2 performance, both in % and # of wins.

As to the discussion regarding Mich St and Kentucky, here are my top 16 currently through Tuesday's games:
1: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina,
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Michigan, Michigan State,
3: Louisville, Purdue, Kansas, Virginia Tech,
4: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Marquette, Villanova

Nevada and Houston hide on the 5 line. Marquette is getting punished a little because my system is not super high on their power level and expects them to lose some conference games (starting with yesterday). Same with Michigan.

Mich st was ahead of Kentucky before that loss by a tiny margin.