Friday, February 22, 2019

2/23 S-CURVE

I don't know, you tell me what the hell to do with the bubble.

I'm putting Buffalo back in as MAC leader instead of Bowling Green.  Want to maximize the bubble pain this time around.

Almost took Tennessee off the 1 line.  Resume doesn't hold up, but their schedule picks up steam soon, so I'll wait and see.

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan St, Kansas
The 3 line:  Michigan, Houston, Marquette, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, Florida St, LSU, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Louisville, Maryland
The 6 line:  Kansas St, Mississippi St, Villanova, Iowa
The 7 line:  Virginia Tech, Buffalo, Washington, Ole Miss
The 8 line:  Auburn, Cincinnati, Baylor, Syracuse
The 9 line:  St John's, Texas, TCU, Wofford
The 10 line:  Ohio St, VCU, Oklahoma, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  Arizona St, Minnesota, Florida, Temple
The 12 line:  Alabama, Central Florida, North Carolina St, Utah St, Belmont, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Hofstra, Liberty, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC Irvine, South Dakota St, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  Texas St, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, Canisius, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Arizona St

Last 4 in:
Central Florida
North Carolina St
Utah St

Last 4 out:

Next 4 out:
St Mary's
UNC Greensboro

Bubble inception:
South Carolina
San Francisco
Oregon St
South Florida
East Tennessee St


HenryMuto said...

How do you have Michigan on the 3 line ? Kansas has great wins no doubt but most of those came with Azubuike and Vick who are no longer there. Azubuike we know is not coming back so I think you have to discount some of those huge wins. Michigan has only 3 losses to Kansas 6 I just don't see how Michigan is below Kansas. They were #6 overall by the committee 2 weeks ago and Kansas was #10. I highly doubt Kansas moved past them in 2 weeks.

It is Michigan State that could be the one Kansas passes if anyone on the 2 line because of Ward injury. We will see what happens this weekend some huge games that will affect the top 2 lines.

Tennessee at LSU (LSU without Waters though)
Auburn at Kentucky (Kentucky without Travis is going to hurt more than people know this is a real danger spot)
Kansas at Texas Tech
Michigan State at Michigan

Just huge games all around.

Would like to see Kentucky get ahead of Tennessee and Virginia to get #1 in South but I don't see it possible without sweeping rest of games and getting to SEC Final. Would been hard to start with but near impossible without Travis especially at Tennessee.

I wonder which is better Kentucky as #2 seed in South or #1 in Midwest. I think I would prefer #2 in South as long as Duke was not #1.

I don't see anyone beating a healthy Duke team in the tournament.

HenryMuto said...

How is Nevada still that high ? They have 0 quad 1 wins. Committee had them at #14 overall before the SDST loss that has to drop them at least to back of the 4 line if not 5 line.

Andrew said...

Make no mistake, Michigan has the resume of a borderline 1 seed. It just happens that there's 9 teams in that top tier for me.

I just don't know about Kansas. I know the personnel situation, but I just can't shake some of their numbers. #1 SoS. Average NET win in the 60s. That is one of the most ridiculous numbers I've ever seen. Even the average RPI win is 64. I've never seen a number that low. I just find it impossible to leave that team on the 3 line. There also may be a bit of projection in there - I expect Kansas to grab a part of the Big 12 title, and I have a feeling natural bias will cause the committee to put their conference champ on the 2 line.

I thought about dropping Nevada a bit, and really, I probably will once the teams right behind them add another signature win or two. I just don't feel comfortable with teams 14-20 right now, moving them up.

Andrew said...

Don't discount the chance of Kentucky as the 2 in the west. It's possible if the race for the #4 overall spot is close between Kentucky and Gonzaga, they'll stick both over there.

Also would help with balance in the bracket. Remember last year, they sent UNC out west as the #5 overall seed to help keep balance within all 4 regionals. We're going to have the same problem this year with a lack of western teams.

Bryan Wilson said...

Agree about Nevada, if you look at a blind resume comparison of Nevada vs. Buffalo, I think you actually side with Buffalo on that one as the better resume. Their team sheets look very similar except for Buffalo has 4 Q1 games instead of Nevada with more Q2 games. Buffalo with the higher NET ranking. The MAC is better than the MWC. I don't know what Nevada has going for it any more besides recency bias and a (currently) higher AP poll ranking.

Andrew said...

I'm betting poll rankings will matter for Nevada. When a team has only but a few relevant data points (read: no Q1 games), I think they'll pay more attention to things like public perception.

HenryMuto said...

Kansas getting smashed down 25 at half at Texas Tech should take care of your thoughts of giving them a 2 seed anymore.

Kentucky should move ahead of Tennessee for the 4th #1 seed as of today with LSU win without Waters over Tennessee. They just do not have the quad 1 wins Kentucky does.

Assuming Tennessee wins at home vs Kentucky I think it comes down to the SEC tournament for the #1 seed.