NIT projections:
Remember the bottom 10 or so teams eventually get cut off for automatic qualifiers. This is a mostly uninspiring group at the moment, frankly.
The 1 line: UConn (15-6), George Washington (16-5), Florida St (14-7), Stanford (10-9)
The 2 line: Oregon St (11-8), Wisconsin (13-9), Georgetown (13-9), LSU (13-8)
The 3 line: Texas Tech (12-8), Tulsa (14-7), BYU (15-7), Ohio St (14-9)
The 4 line: Arizona St (12-10), Vanderbilt (12-9), Texas-Arlington (13-6), Kansas St (13-8)
The 5 line: William & Mary (13-6), Georgia (11-8), Boise St (13-8), Evansville (17-5)
The 6 line: Virginia Tech (12-10), Creighton (14-8), Arkansas (11-10), Alabama (11-9)
The 7 line: Rhode Island (12-9), Northwestern (15-8), Marquette (15-7), Princeton (11-5)
The 8 line: Middle Tennessee (13-6), IPFW (16-6), Memphis (13-8), Kent St (14-6)
Bracket:
1) UConn (15-6) vs. 8) Kent St (14-6)
4) Vanderbilt (12-9) vs. 5) Virginia Tech (12-10)
3) Ohio St (14-9) vs. 6) Rhode Island (12-9)
2) Georgetown (13-9) vs. 7) Princeton (11-5)
1) George Washington (16-5) vs. 8) IPFW (16-6)
4) William & Mary (13-6) vs. 5) Georgia (11-8)
3) BYU (15-7) vs. 6) Boise St (13-8)
2) Oregon St (11-8) vs. 7) Marquette (15-7)
1) Florida St (14-7) vs. 8) Middle Tennessee (13-6)
4) Arizona St (12-10) vs. 5) Alabama (11-9)
3) Texas Tech (12-8) vs. 6) Creighton (14-8)
2) LSU (13-8) vs. 7) Northwestern (15-8)
1) Stanford (10-9) vs. 8) Memphis (13-8)
4) Texas-Arlington (13-6) vs. 5) Kansas St (13-8)
3) Tulsa (14-7) vs. 6) Evansville (17-5)
2) Wisconsin (13-9) vs. 7) Arkansas (11-10)
The Vegas 16 projections:
Again, remember that Vegas begins their own postseason tournament this year. A 16 team bracket, every game at a neutral site in Vegas. This is very wild speculation about who will show up. Take these not with a grain of salt but an entire salt factory. My guess is we see upper and high majors take spots in these tournaments as a preference to the CBI where you pay to host. I think Vegas will get first pick of many of the best teams available, since the neutral site format along with the quick nature of the tournament (the entire thing will take place over about 5 days) will attract many teams who would otherwise pass on the CBI and CIT.
Matchups wouldn't be geography-based for obvious reasons, so a listing of the 16 teams I have in this spot:
Hawaii (14-3)
Georgia Tech (12-9)
North Carolina St (12-10)
Oklahoma St (11-10)
Nebraska (12-10)
Ole Miss (13-8)
Houston (15-6)
Richmond (11-9)
Pepperdine (13-8)
New Mexico (13-8)
Fresno St (12-7)
Louisiana Tech (14-5)
Duquesne (14-7)
Southern Illinois (18-5)
Northern Iowa (11-11)
Grand Canyon (18-3)
CBI projections:
The CBI are going to lose teams to Vegas, I think. It just makes more economical sense for teams to go to Vegas. Hence, these projections are really a crapshoot.
As always, take a grain of salt with these projections. I am not attempting to guess which teams would decline a bid at this point. My goal is to highlight the types of teams who are best available for the CBI, and to give fans an idea of the types of opponents they might face in the tournament. Again, I repeat: I AM MAKING NO ATTEMPTS TO GUESS WHICH TEAMS WOULD DECLINE A CBI/CIT BID. If I see concrete evidence a team would decline a bid, then I won't project them.
Siena (15-7) at James Madison (15-7)
Fordham (11-8) at Buffalo (11-9)
Louisiana-Lafayette (9-8) at Central Florida (10-9)
Charleston (12-8) at Old Dominion (12-10)
Tennessee St (13-6) at Ohio (12-7)
Oakland (14-8) at Indiana St (11-10)
UNLV (11-9) at San Francisco (11-10)
North Dakota St (12-8) at Nevada (11-8)
CIT projections:
These are a bit more of a known quantity. They'll focus on the small majors and the Vegas tournament won't affect them too badly. The CBI will lose more teams to Vegas than the CIT.
As always, take a grain of salt with these projections. I am not attempting to guess which teams would decline a bid at this point. My goal is to highlight the types of teams who are best available for the CIT, and to give fans an idea of the types of opponents they might face in the tournament. Again, I repeat: I AM MAKING NO ATTEMPTS TO GUESS WHICH TEAMS WOULD DECLINE A CBI/CIT BID. If I see concrete evidence a team would decline a bid, then I won't project them.
Navy (14-7) at Marshall (11-11)
Albany (16-6) at Iona (11-9)
Fairleigh Dickinson (10-10) at Vermont (12-10)
Columbia (13-6) at NJIT (11-11)
High Point (11-7) at UNC-Wilmington (14-5)
Winthrop (13-6) at Towson (14-7)
Furman (11-10) at Georgia St (10-7)
Southern (12-7) at Mercer (14-6)
Tennessee Tech (14-7) at Illinois St (11-11)
Central Michigan (9-9) at Milwaukee (13-7)
Morehead St (11-9) at Wright St (11-10)
Northern Illinois (12-5) at Omaha (13-8)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-4) at Houston Baptist (10-7)
Denver (11-11) at Utah St (9-9)
Weber St (12-6) at Colorado St (10-9)
Idaho (11-9) at Cal St-Bakersfield (12-7)
Best teams available left out of my postseason projections. Traditionally, the true postseason bubble falls somewhere in between half of these teams.
New Hampshire, Jacksonville, FGCU, Coastal Carolina, Radford, UC-Riverside, Elon, Northeastern, UTEP, FIU, Western Kentucky, Green Bay, Cornell, Fairfield, Ball St, Bowling Green, Toledo, South Carolina St, Murray St, Eastern Kentucky, Boston, Army, East Tennessee St, Samford, Incarnate Word, Sam Houston St, IUPUI
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