Saturday, February 17, 2018

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Hey, you know what's a good idea during the most important part of basketball season?

Leaving the country and getting cut off from the internets for a full week.

The blog will fall silent for a week.  Bracketball returns on February 24 with what likely will be an insane amount of catching up.

Friday, February 16, 2018

2/17 S-CURVE

WTF point #1:  1 line, #4 overall
I'll cede to the committee and put Auburn over Kansas.  I'm not convinced that'll hold through March, but I'll give it to them for now.

WTF point #2:  4 line, #16 overall
It doesn't feel right having one of those Big 12 teams there, and there's just no good candidates to work with.  So we'll give Gonzaga a bone here.

WTF point #3:  5 line, #20 overall
I stared at this one forever.  I have no idea.  There's literally no one who deserves that spot.  No one.  When in doubt, go with the committee overseeding a team whose conference has manipulated the RPI numbers the best.

WTF point #4:  6 line, #24 overall
Ok I'll admit, two big jumps for SEC teams here.  Same reasoning as before - as teams fall apart above them, I'm going to err on the side of the committee throwing a bone to the conference with strong SoS numbers.  It also helps that the Big East's next best teams are showing some pretty significant flaws at the moment.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Auburn
The 2 line:  Kansas, Duke, Texas Tech, Purdue
The 3 line:  Michigan St, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Clemson
The 4 line:  Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio St, Gonzaga
The 5 line:  West Virginia, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas A&M
The 6 line:  St Mary's, Miami, Nevada, Alabama
The 7 line:  Missouri, Kentucky, Creighton, Florida
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Butler, Houston, Florida St
The 9 line:  Wichita St, Providence, Arizona St, TCU
The 10 line:  Michigan, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Arkansas
The 11 line:  Middle Tennessee, North Carolina St, UCLA, Kansas St, USC
The 12 line:  Texas, St Bonaventure, New Mexico St, Buffalo, Loyola
The 13 line:  Charleston, Vermont, Louisiana, South Dakota St
The 14 line:  East Tennessee St, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, Montana
The 15 line:  Canisius, Bucknell, Wright St, Wagner
The 16 line:  Harvard, Winthrop, FGCU, Nicholls St, Savannah St, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Next 4 in:
Virginia Tech
Arkansas
North Carolina St
UCLA

Last 4 in:
Kansas St
USC
Texas
St Bonaventure

Last 4 out:
Baylor
Marquette
Syracuse
Penn St

Next 4 out:
Boise St
Western Kentucky
Utah
Temple

Break it down!
ACC 9
SEC 8
Big 12 7
Big East 6
Pac-12 4
B1G 4
AAC 3
A-10 2
WCC 2

2/16 recap

@St Bonaventure 77, Rhode Island 74 - there's the one that gets Bonaventure back in bubble range.  Don't pretend that this is a magic elixir win, though.  It's still just a home hold, albeit a group 1 win.  Work remains.

@Wright St 69, Northern Kentucky 67 - WSU is even in the standings, with tiebreaker in hand.  And for some reason I care about a conference currently submerged in the 20s in the CRPI

Penn and Harvard won, go to dual 8-1s to lead the Ivy.

2/15 recap

@Houston 67, Cincinnati 62 - signature wins are a great way to get off the bubble.  NOW what do you do with Cincy's seed?  So much of it was contingent on keeping their nose clean....for now, my rule of 1 applies.  Everyone gets one.
@Wichita St 93, Temple 86 - it's running-the-table time for Temple

@Wisconsin 57, Purdue 53 - here's your dumb loss of the day...
@Penn St 79, Ohio St 56 - although this is pretty dumb too.  Penn St and Nebraska can have a pillow fight to see who is the more relevant bubble team.  I have a bad feeling one of them will get there by March

@Gonzaga 76, Loyola Marymount 46
@San Francisco 70, St Mary's 63 - everyone gets one.
BYU 75, @Pepperdine 70

Arizona 77, @Arizona St 70 - this is really helpful to Zona's seed, more than you think
Utah 70, @Washington 58 - I wish some of these bubble teams would make up their damn mind if they're any good or not
@USC 72, Oregon 70
@Washington St 73, Colorado 69
@UCLA 75, Oregon St 68

Middle Tennessee 72, @Southern Miss 62
Western Kentucky 102, @North Texas 94 (OT) - we play on in CUSA.  MT up one on WKU (with Old Dominion 1 back, with no real at-large profile to work with.  This is becoming fascinating to watch to see if ODU gets in the way of these two now)

@Utah Valley 86, New Mexico St 79 - this was going to be the toughest ask for NMSU in conference play.  That's likely the at-large bid by the boards

A-Fun:  FGCU finally loses in conference play, and may cost them a chance to get out of the 16 line
AEast:  Vermont moves to 12-0 and has essentially ended this race
Big Sky:  Montana's first loss comes to Eastern Washington.  Weber St moves 1.5 back with 5 to play
CAA:  Charleston remains one up on Northeastern, as those 2 have finally separated from the rest

Thursday, February 15, 2018

2/14 recap

@Providence 76, Villanova 71 - hey, a signature win for a bubble team!
@Xavier 102, Seton Hall 90
St John's 77, @DePaul 76

Kansas St 82, @Oklahoma St 72 - well okay, road win!  A pretty big deal here for KSU's resume

@Auburn 76, Kentucky 66
@Vanderbilt 81, Mississippi St 80
Georgia 72, @Florida 69 (OT) - this comes on the heels of just about everyone moving on from Georgia as a viable at-large team.  Now we have to pay attention to them again, so annoying

@Florida St 81, Clemson 79 - home signature win!  These wins aren't magic elixirs, FSU still has to hold the line, but it's a big one for now.  Bigger deal at the moment for me is what this does to the 3 lines and 4 lines.  Clemson's in a weird spot
@Duke 74, Virginia Tech 52
NC State 74, @Syracuse 70 - in a bubble v bubble battle, road wins are precious, and home losses are devastating.  Syracuse off the cutline for now

@Michigan 74, Iowa 59
@Indiana 78, Illinois 68 - NIT bubble action!

Nevada 77, @Boise St 72 - this is a big deal to Nevada's seed line...and Boise's at-large hopes, which are very much in peril with a signature win chance by the boards
@San Diego St 87, Wyoming 77 - NIT bubble action!

@UCF 72, South Florida 57
Memphis 70, @SMU 67 - a surprising slide for SMU, and they're done and dusted here

@Loyola 80, Valpo 71 - Loyola just about has the MVC won, so we'll reintroduce them to the at-large board, only because a 6-loss team from the #8 conference would get at-large consideration in general

2/13 recap

Virginia 59, @Miami 50
Boston College 81, @Pitt 58 - is BC in bubble play? No.

Michigan St 87, @Minnesota 57
@Nebraska 70, Maryland 66 - I think we have to put Nebraska on the bubble, just on sheer principle of being 11-4 in a power conference.  This is so weird
@Rutgers 67, Northwestern 58 (OT)

@Texas Tech 88, Oklahoma 78 - okay, seeding Tech is starting to get really annoying.  They have flaws that prevent them from being on the 1 line, but does a Big 12 champ miss the 1 line?  We have a paradox incoming.
Kansas 83, @Iowa St 77 - for the love of god, KU, run the table.  You'll get a 1 seed that way and make my life easier

@Rhode Island 84, Richmond 67 - 5 to go for URI
St Bonaventure 79, @LaSalle 68

@Tennessee 70, South Carolina 67
@Missouri 62, Texas A&M 58 - A&M did good work as of late, so they can easily afford one road loss.  But they're still under .500 in the SEC, they should aim to erase that.  Another decent win for Mizzou; I'm leaning in on most of these SEC bubble teams right now
Arkansas 75, @Ole Miss 64 - road wins are never trivial
@Alabama 80, LSU 65

Georgetown 87, @Butler 73 - what the hell is Georgetown doing?  They're starting to ruin everything for the conference.  This'll be worth a seed line next month

MACwatch:  Toledo and Buffalo both win, both continue on at 11-2

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

2/12 recap

@North Carolina 83, Notre Dame 66
@West Virginia 82, TCU 66
Baylor 74, @Texas 73 (2OT) - I see Baylor starting to invade some bubble talk.  I'm ok with this, but let's be careful out there

@Savannah St 108, NC A&T 106 - SSU is now 2 clear for the lead in the MEAC, 5 to play
Grambling 78, @Texas Southern 55 - usually the SWAC waits until their conference tournament to screw up everyone's projections with non-eligible teams, but here we are, with an ineligible Grambling now leading the conference on its own.

@UNC Greensboro 74, East Tennessee St 56 - finally a SoCon loss for ETSU, and it's game on in the conference, 1.5 ahead of UNCG with 4 to play