Sunday, January 26, 2020

1/27 BRACKET

I am laughing so hard at what I inadvertently did to the midwest region.  Kansas, Duke, Michigan St, Kentucky, Arizona, Ohio St, Michigan.  Have fun with that.

I know the 3-6-11 lines are broken.  Let's take you behind the scenes.  I have 2 B1G and 1 ACC team on the 3 line, and 2 B1G teams on the 6 line.  There are 2 ACC and 2 B1G teams in the play-in games, that have to be on the 11 line.  Avoiding conflict is impossible, some inter-conference matchups had to be possible in the first two rounds.  I sorta kinda found a tolerable solution, but it resulted in Dayton and VCU in the same subregional, so that was a no-go.  And on top of that, BYU and their no Sunday crap was on the 11 line.

So in the end?  I threw the B1G teams and ACC teams against each other in the play-in games.  Accepted that conflict while solving the other ones.  I'm not going to try and solve an impossible bracket problem in January.  Deal with it.

SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Florida
@Tampa
4) Butler vs. 13) North Texas
5) Auburn vs. 12) East Tennessee St
@St Louis
3) Dayton vs. 14) Arkansas-Little Rock
6) Colorado vs. 11) Purdue/Minnesota
@Tampa
2) Florida St vs. 15) Montana
7) Marquette vs. 10) Memphis

EAST 33
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Stanford vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Albany
4) Villanova vs. 13) Vermont
5) LSU vs. 12) Northern Iowa
@Greensboro
3) Maryland vs. 14) William & Mary
6) Wichita St vs. 11) VCU
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Rutgers vs. 10) Oklahoma

WEST 35
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Monmouth
8) Indiana vs. 9) USC
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Stephen F Austin
5) Creighton vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Louisville vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Penn St vs. 11) BYU
@Cleveland
2) West Virginia vs. 15) Wright St
7) Illinois vs. 10) St Mary's

MIDWEST 34
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) North Florida/Texas Southern
8) Ohio St vs. 9) Arkansas
@Sacramento
4) Kentucky vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Iowa vs. 12) Akron
@Cleveland
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Colgate
6) Arizona vs. 11) Virginia Tech/Syracuse
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Austin Peay
7) Houston vs. 10) Michigan

1/27 SEED LIST

Feel like the identity of the 1 line is pretty well set.  Things are sure to change though.  Teams on the 2 line are going to pick up signature wins, due to the way the teams on the 1 line are clustered.  Whoever inevitably wins the Big East, ACC, and B1G are going to come for the 1 line.

The 4 line is kind of a transition line for me.  Feel good about the top 12-15 separating from the pack.  But once you get to the 5-8 lines, you could almost put these teams in any order and I wouldn't complain.

I haven't fully scrubbed this so I'm sure there's probably a couple spots where I've deviated from the data.

You can tell where I threw my hands up and just threw a bunch of B1G teams into the field.  They have 10 in, and I really didn't want to do 12....but who else would've gone in?



The 1 line:  Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Seton Hall, Duke, West Virginia, Florida St
The 3 line:  Maryland, Michigan St, Dayton, Louisville
The 4 line:  Oregon, Butler, Villanova, Kentucky
The 5 line:  Iowa, Auburn, LSU, Creighton
The 6 line:  Colorado, Arizona, Penn St, Wichita St
The 7 line:  Rutgers, Illinois, Marquette, Houston
The 8 line:  Stanford, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana
The 9 line:  USC, Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas
The 10 line:  St Mary's, Memphis, Michigan, Oklahoma
The 11 line:  BYU, VCU, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Syracuse, Minnesota
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, East Tennessee St, Akron, Yale
The 13 line:  North Texas, Stephen F Austin, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line:  William & Mary, UC-Irvine, Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 15 line:  Wright St, Montana, South Dakota St, Austin Peay
The 16 line:  Winthrop, Monmouth, North Florida, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Michigan
Oklahoma
BYU
VCU

Last 4 in:
Virginia Tech
Purdue
Syracuse
Minnesota

Last 4 out:
Alabama
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa*
Rhode Island
Georgetown

Next 4 out:
Richmond
Tennessee
Mississippi St
Arizona St

Break it down!:
B1G 12
Big East 5
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
SEC 5
ACC 5
AAC 3
WCC 3
A-10 2

1/26 recap

@San Diego St 71, UNLV 67

Michigan St 70, @Minnesota 52
Maryland 77, @Indiana 76 - quality road win.  Starting to feel a little confident Maryland and MSU will eventually separate from the pack in conference, give or take an Illinois
Ohio St 71, @Northwestern 59 - ok, so OSU avoids rock bottom at least

@Oregon 96, UCLA 75
@Cal 52, Stanford 50 - not a good loss, even on the road

@Houston 68, South Florida 49
Tulsa 79, @UConn 75 (OT) - Tulsa probably isn't relevant but I'll keep an eye out

Virginia 65, @Wake 63 (OT) - UVa is doing the bare minimum to stay in the bubble conversation

@St Louis 55, Fordham 39

@Creighton 77, Xavier 66

@Northern Iowa 67, Loyola(Chi) 62 (OT)

Saturday, January 25, 2020

1/25 recap

Big 12/SEC contrived matchup series:
Baylor 72, @Florida 61 - more of a tough break for Florida to draw the most unwinnable game
@Kansas 74, Tennessee 68
@West Virginia 74, Missouri 51 - boy, WVU should probably be offended that they got stuck with this game
Kentucky 76, @Texas Tech 74 - a signature road win for a team that could've used one
@Auburn 80, Iowa St 76 - just like WVU, a team here that has to be disappointed with the matchup
LSU 69, @Texas 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Oklahoma 63, Mississippi St 62
Oklahoma St 73, @Texas A&M 62
@Arkansas 78, TCU 67
@Alabama 77, Kansas St 74

B1G:
Illinois 64, @Michigan 62 - huh, so Illinois is a thing this year
@Rutgers 75, Nebraska 72 - could you imagine if Rutgers lost this game?

ACC:
@Florida St 85, Notre Dame 84
@Louisville 80, Clemson 62
@North Carolina 94, Miami 71
@Syracuse 69, Pittsburgh 61
@Boston College 61, Virginia Tech 56 - Syracuse and Va Tech will be two ugly bubble teams by March
@Georgia Tech 64, NC State 58 - and NCSU too.  Oy, ACC, what are you doing this year

Big East:
Villanova 64, @Providence 60
St John's 79, @DePaul 66

Pac-12:
@Arizona St 66, Arizona 65
@Colorado 76, Washington 62 - Washington became irrelevant in a hurry here
USC 75, @Oregon St 55 - road wins are never trivial
@Utah 76, Washington St 64

A-10:
Dayton 87, @Richmond 79 - a legitimate road win, and a precious Q1 chance by the boards for Richmond
VCU 76, @LaSalle 65
@UMass 73, Duquesne 64 - ok, it's the beginning of the end of Duquesne
@Rhode Island 81, St Bonaventure 75

AAC:
SMU 74, @Memphis 70 - what is you doing Memphis
@Wichita St 87, UCF 79

WCC:
@Gonzaga 92, Pacific 59
@San Francisco 83, BYU 82 - it's not a bad loss, but doesn't mean it isn't costly
Santa Clara 65, @San Diego 52 - SC is building up a gaudy record if nothing else
St Mary's 73, @Loyola Marymount 62

elsewhere:
@Stenson 48, Liberty 43 - UNF was a semi-forgivable loss.  This one isn't.  Endgame.

Friday, January 24, 2020

1/24 recap

@Butler 89, Marquette 85 (OT)
@Purdue 70, Wisconsin 51 - man, there's going to be some ugly W-L marks out of this conference

1/23 recap

B1G:
@Indiana 67, Michigan St 63 - the entire top of the Big 10 might wind up on the 4 line
Minnesota 62, @Ohio St 59 - ok, now really worried about what to do with OSU

Pac-12:
@Oregon 79, USC 70 (2OT) - game effort by USC, but this won't hurt them at least
@Colorado 78, Washington St 56
@Utah 67, Washington 66
UCLA 62, @Oregon St 58

AAC:
@Houston 63, UConn 59

WCC:
BYU 74, @Pacific 60
@St Mary's 58, San Francisco 48

elsewhere:
@North Florida 71, Liberty 70 - probably the toughest game on the board for Liberty in conference play, but given how low the conference is, perfection was probably required for at-large relevancy

1/22 recap

B1G:
@Iowa 85, Rutgers 80
Penn St 72, @Michigan 63 - precious, precious road win.  Michigan has time, but they're taking on too many losses in the B1G

ACC:
@Louisville 68, Georgia Tech 64
Syracuse 84, @Notre Dame 82 - by default, it feels like Syracuse will be our ACC bubble team this year
@Virginia Tech 79, UNC 77 (2OT) - VT has to beat the home cupcakes more convincingly if they want to make the tourney
@Pitt 74, BC 72

Big East:
@Seton Hall 73, Providence 64
@Xavier 66, Georgetown 57 - GU starting to absorb too many losses
Creighton 83, @DePaul 68 - road wins are never trivial, and DePaul is now at risk of becoming trivial, yet again

SEC:
@Auburn 80, South Carolina 67
@Mississippi St 77, Arkansas 70 - UA shows they're a tier below the top tier in the SEC
Alabama 77, @Vandy 62

A-10:
@Dayton 86, St Bonaventure 60
@Richmond 75, LaSalle 57
@Rhode Island 77, Duquesne 55 - uh oh Duquesne.  Don't backslide now
@Davidson 71, St Louis 59 - road loss, so somewhat forgivable, but at risk of falling behind the A-10 leaders

AAC:
@Tulsa 80, Memphis 40 - what
Cincinnati 89, @Temple 82 - Cincy has major resume problems, but don't appear to be dead yet

elsewhere:
@Southern Illinois 68, Northern Iowa 66 - I figure UNI can spend a couple more road losses, but be careful