Saturday, December 31, 2016

11/28 S-CURVE

It's still pretty early for this.

The 1 line:  Villanova (6-0), Kentucky (6-0), North Carolina (6-0), Kansas (5-1)
The 2 line:  Duke (6-1), Xavier (6-0), Virginia (6-0), Arizona (5-1)
The 3 line:  Baylor (6-0), Indiana (4-1), Gonzaga (6-0), UCLA (7-0)
The 4 line:  Creighton (6-0), Louisville (4-1), Purdue (5-1), Iowa St (5-1)
The 5 line:  Michigan St (4-3), South Carolina (6-0), Butler (6-0), Wisconsin (5-2)
The 6 line:  St Mary's (5-0), Michigan (5-1), West Virginia (4-1), Cincinnati (5-1)
The 7 line:  Dayton (4-2), Florida (6-1), Oregon (4-2), Texas A&M (4-2)
The 8 line:  Oklahoma (4-1), Rhode Island (5-1), Wichita St (5-2), Notre Dame (6-0)
The 9 line:  Michigan (5-1), Maryland (6-0), San Diego St (2-1), USC (6-0)
The 10 line:  Florida St (5-1), Syracuse (4-1), California (4-1), VCU (5-1)
The 11 line:  Pittsburgh (5-1), Seton Hall (4-2), Virginia Tech (5-1), Auburn (4-1), Ohio St (6-0)
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa (2-2), SMU (4-2), Valparaiso (5-1), Chattanooga (3-2), Iona (3-2)
The 13 line:  Middle Tennesse (5-1), Akron (5-1), UNC-Wilmington (4-1), Arkansas St (5-1)
The 14 line:  North Dakota St (3-2), Texas Southern (4-2), Tennessee St (5-0), Columbia (3-2)
The 15 line:  Vermont (5-2), Eastern Washington (4-2), Hawaii (3-3), New Mexico St (4-2)
The 16 line:  Stephen F Austin (1-1), Bucknell (5-2), FGCU (3-3), Long Island (4-1), Winthrop (2-2), North Carolina Central (3-2)

Next 4 in:
VCU
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
Virginia Tech

Last 4 in:
Auburn
Ohio St
Northern Iowa
SMU

Last 4 out:
Colorado
Texas
Providence
Marquette

Next 4 out:
Houston
Northwestern
Oklahoma St
Georgia

Thursday, December 8, 2016

12/7 recap

@Kentucky 87, Valparaiso 63 - this doesn't hurt Valpo any
@North Carolina 83, Davidson 74 - this doesn't hurt Davidson any
@Gonzaga 98, Washington 71 - yawn
Creighton 77, @Nebraska 62 - remember, road wins matter, even when you're the superior team
@Colorado 68, Xavier 66 - and this is why road wins matte.  You can easily lose games to competent teams on the road.  No real harm for Xavier, except for the theoretical chance at a 1 seed
@Indiana St 72, Butler 71 - this road loss might be a bit dicier, as Indiana St is a level down from Colorado or Nebraska.  Butler should be fine as they built up a fine resume to this point, though
George Mason 85, @Penn St 66 - and then there's road wins like this that just prove that Penn St is irrelevant
Harvard 74, @Boston College 66
@Pittsburgh 84, Buffalo 79
Georgia Tech 76, @VCU 73 (OT) - VCU is likely not gonna be doing much this year
George Washington 66, @Temple 63 - Temple lost to New Hampshire, GWU, and UMass, and beat WVU and FSU.  What is going on here
@SMU 74, TCU 59
@Grand Canyon 76, San Diego St 72 - what in the world, SDSU?
Seton Hall 60, California 57 - this should be a quality neutral site win, useful for the resume

Mid-major junction:
North Dakota 74, @North Dakota St 56 - reminder:  the Summit is down this year
@Tulsa 70, Illinois St 68
@Northern Iowa 86, South Dakota St 58 - things are really wide open for Fort Wayne in the Summit this year
Loyola(Chi) 77, Wright St 64 - looks bad for the Horizon, good for the Valley
UAB 84, @Stephen F Austin 73 - I'm now fully out on the Southland, just slot them in Dayton already

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

12/6 recap

Duke 84, Florida 74 - no real change in either team's profile
Purdue 97, Arizona St 64 - does count as a neutral site win
Villanova 89, LaSalle 79 - also counts as a neutral site win
@Notre Dame 87, Fort Wayne 72
@Arkansas 84, Houston 72 - road win is a tough ask, but Houston needs the profile help
@Rhode Island 51, Old Dominion 39
St Bonaventure 81, @Hofstra 75
@Utah 87, Utah Valley 80
@Michigan 53, Texas 50

Catastrophic loss of the year:
Florida Atlantic 79, @Ohio St 77 (OT)

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

12/5 recap

@UConn 52, Syracuse 50 - UConn is still in major trouble, but at least they dragged Syracuse into major trouble with them

...and that's about it for major impact games.  Not a lot else going on here.

Monday, December 5, 2016

12/4 recap

Marquette 89, @Georgia 79 - remember, road wins always matter
Florida St 67, George Washington 48 - so do neutral site wins, kinda
@Charleston 76, Davidson 61 - this is why road wins matter, not getting them looks worse than it actually is
@Georgetown 77, lona 74 - man oh man...

Sunday, December 4, 2016

12/3 recap

UCLA 97, @Kentucky 92 - in the game of Bracketology, road wins are king.  Road wins over good teams are gold.  Signature road wins over probable 1 seeds are magic elixirs that practically guarantee inclusion in the field, even if they collapse.  The focus for UCLA now turns to seeding
@Villanova 88, St Joseph's 57
@Kansas 89, Stanford 74
West Virginia 66, @Virginia 57 - hey, speaking of signature road wins...
@Baylor 76, Xavier 61 - but on the other hand, it's okay if you don't get the signature road win.  You'll be fine
Gonzaga 69, Arizona 62 - neutral site win, if you're scoring at home.  I've talked about the mid-major signature win effect plenty already, so you know what this meant
@Creighton 82, Akron 70
Louisville 79, @Grand Canyon 70 - curious spot for a true road game, but hey, it worked
@Wisconsin 90, Oklahoma 70
@Providence 63, Rhode Island 60 - no single loss for URI is a sin...but they were all swing games, which means they have to swing your way once in awhile.  And they aren't
Wake Forest 75, @Richmond 67 - road win
@Ole Miss 85, Memphis 77 - lesson:  Memphis isn't good
@Tennessee 81, Georgia Tech 58
Omaha 98, @Iowa 89 - that's it for Iowa this year
Illinois 64, VCU 46
@Wyoming 81, Northern Iowa 73 - and that's it for UNI this year
@Loyola(Chi) 65, San Diego St 59 - and who knows what the hell to do with the Mountain West now; UNM lost to Illinois St too.  Maybe it's Nevada now, who knows
Wichita St 82, @Colorado St 67
New Orleans 70, @Washington St 54 - ahahahaha
@Minnesota 56, Vanderbilt 52
USC 91, BYU 84
@TCU 77, Arkansas St 54
Auburn 74, @UAB 70 - road win!
@Maryland 71, Oklahoma St 70
Colorado 76, @Portland 63 - road win

Saturday, December 3, 2016

12/2 recap

Duquesne 64, @Pittsburgh 55 - man, Pitt had momentum, a road win, and threw away a lot of their progress in this game
@SMU 49, Cal St-Bakersfield 43 - CSUB is a competent team, but still, this is unnerving for SMU
@Texas 77, Alabama 68 - I love how these two schools schedule on a Friday instead of a college football Saturday.  Savvy