Monday, February 18, 2019

2/18 recap

Virginia 64, @Virginia Tech 58 - UVa is making it really difficult for any other team to wedge into #2 overall on the S-Curve right now.  VT showing they truly belong on a tier behind of the top ACC teams
@Wisconsin 64, Illinois 58
Kansas St 65, @West Virginia 51 - road wins are never trivial
@Oklahoma St 68, TCU 61 - and this is why road wins are never trivial.  Pretty dumb loss to take, but I think TCU has a bit of wiggle room.  Their schedule is pretty tough though, so they can certainly spend that wiggle room very quickly

Sunday, February 17, 2019

2/18 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Kentucky, Michigan St, North Carolina, Michigan
The 3 line:  Marquette, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, Iowa St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 5 line:  Louisville, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
The 6 line:  Villanova, Maryland, Florida St, Iowa
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Washington
The 8 line:  TCU, Syracuse, St John's, Ole Miss
The 9 line:  Baylor, Wofford, Auburn, Seton Hall
The 10 line:  Ohio St, VCU, Texas, Minnesota
The 11 line:  Central Florida, Arizona St, Oklahoma, North Carolina St, Utah St, Temple
The 12 line:  Davidson, Lipscomb, Belmont, Hofstra
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Vermont, Yale
The 14 line:  Bowling Green, Texas St, Northern Kentucky, UC-Irvine
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, Montana, Missouri St, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, Canisius, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Texas
Minnesota
Central Florida
Arizona St

Last 4 in:
Oklahoma
North Carolina St
Utah St
Temple

Last 4 out:
Florida
Alabama
Clemson
Davidson*
Lipscomb*
Belmont*
Butler

Next 4 out:
Furman
UNC-Greensboro
St Mary's
Indiana

Break it down!:
Big 12 8
B1G 8
ACC 8
SEC 6
Big East 4
AAC 4
Pac-12 2
MAC 2
A-10 2
MWC 2

2/17 recap

Houston 85, @Tulane 50
@Cincinnati 72, Wichita St 62

@Michigan St 62, Ohio St 44

@St John's 71, Villanova 65 - hey now, a signature win
Seton Hall 81, @Creighton 75 - and a not half-bad road win.  Big East creeping slowly towards having 4 teams safely in

2/16 recap

@Kentucky 86, Tennessee 69 - well that's one way to erase the LSU loss.  Probably back to the top 2 seed.  Tennessee is safe on the 1 line for now, don't worry
LSU 83, @Georgia 79 - road wins are never trivial
Auburn 64, @Vandy 53 - as I said, road wins are never trivial
Florida 71, @Alabama 53 - seriously Florida, just go away.  But now that we're here, are they back in the field?
@Ole Miss 75, Mizzou 65
Mississippi St 77, @Arkansas 67

@Duke 94, NC St 78
@Virginia 60, Notre Dame 54
UNC 95, @Wake 57
@Louisville 56, Clemson 55 - that's the signature win Clemson needed to have realistic bubble hopes.  Shame
Florida St 69, @Georgia Tech 47
Virginia Tech 70, @Pitt 64

@Michigan 65, Maryland 52 - a sorely needed win to hang onto the 2 line for Michigan
@Purdue 76, Penn St 64
Iowa 71, @Rutgers 69
@Minnesota 84, Indiana 63
@Nebraska 59, Northwestern 50

@Kansas 78, WVU 53
@Texas Tech 86, Baylor 61
Iowa St 78, @Kansas St 64 - it's so unusual seeing the Big 12 leader have the 4th best resume.  This'll hurt K-State a bit given there's a lot of competition on the 4-7 lines.  Iowa St creeping towards the 3
Oklahoma 71, @TCU 62 - biggest win of the day.  Oklahoma needs to just simply avoid losses at this point (by that I mean they really don't need more signature wins).  They need loss avoidance.  This is a big one
@Texas 69, Oklahoma St 57

Xavier 75, @Providence 61
@Butler 91, DePaul 78

Washington 72, @Washington St 70
Arizona St 98, @Utah 87 - hey now:  an honest-to-goodness quality road win!  This does mean we can cross off Utah probably for good, but hey, ASU!  quality road win!
@Oregon St 72, Oregon 57 - the role of hail-mary 3rd Pac-12 team now belongs to OSU

@UCF 79, Memphis 72
Temple 70, @USF 69

Gonzaga 79, @San Diego 67 - conspiracy theory time!  Remember the committee rankings, and their bracket?  Their west regional was soft compared to the other regionals.  Part of that is the weakest 1 seed being Gonzaga.  Well what if Gonzaga was seeded as the best 2nd seed instead?  That would fix the problem.  I'm not saying, but I'm just saying
BYU 70, @Loyola Marymount 62
San Francisco 68, @Portland 63 (OT)
@St Mary's 72, Pepperdine 65
Nevada 82, @Wyoming 49
Utah St 76, @Air Force 62
Fresno St 81, @New Mexico 73
VCU 69, @Dayton 68 - this is just about as good a win as is available in the conference right now
@Furman 96, VMI 62
@Wofford 80, UNC Greensboro 50 - this definitively solves the SoCon bubble situation.  Wofford most definitely in play, everyone else just about done
Lipscomb 83, @Kennesaw St 67
@UNC Wilmington 87, Hofstra 79 - this case is dead
Belmont 93, @Tennessee Tech 65

Friday, February 15, 2019

2/16 S-CURVE

I don't know; you tell me what to do with the bubble.  The good news is that it will naturally constrict over the next month, but that's a motley group of teams in and around the bubble right now.  It's not hard to see why that's the case; the 5-7 lines are very strong IMO.  They're vacuuming up all the wins, leading to a strong middle of the field but a weak back end.

The 1 line:  Duke, Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan
The 3 line:  Marquette, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, LSU, Louisville, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas St, Villanova
The 6 line:  Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida St, Iowa
The 7 line:  TCU, Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Buffalo
The 8 line:  Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor, St John's
The 9 line:  Washington, Wofford, Ohio St, Auburn
The 10 line:  Seton Hall, VCU, Minnesota, Texas
The 11 line:  Alabama, Arizona St, Lipscomb, North Carolina St
The 12 line:  Central Florida, Utah St, Oklahoma, Indiana, Belmont, Davidson
The 13 line:  Hofstra, New Mexico St, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC-Irvine, Loyola(Chi), Texas St
The 15 line:  Northern Kentucky, South Dakota St, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Canisius, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Texas
Alabama
Arizona St
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Central Florida
Utah St
Oklahoma
Indiana

Last 4 out:
Butler
Clemson
Florida
Temple

Next 4 out:
Furman
UNC-Greensboro
Nebraska
St Mary's

Break it down!:
B1G 9
ACC 8
Big 12 8
SEC 7
Big East 4
AAC 3
Pac-12 2
A-10 2
MWC 2

2/15 recap

Buffalo 88, @Toledo 82 - a quality road win, and it helps alleviate any potential disaster scenario where UB misses the tourney entirely
@Davidson 80, St Joe's 72

2/14 recap

Illinois 63, @Ohio St 56 - luckily, given the current state of the bubble, OSU is still a couple dumb losses away from true trouble.  But given how strong the 5-6-7 lines are, their seed ceiling keeps getting lowered

@Utah 83, Arizona 76 - is Utah the 3rd best team in the Pac-12?  Yikes

Houston 71, @UConn 63

Gonzaga 73, @Loyola Marymount 60
BYU 88, @San Diego 82
@San Francisco 89, Pepperdine 77
St Mary's 66, @Santa Clara 55 - so who is the 2nd best team in the WCC?  I'm not sure the answer matters, but based on the computer numbers, both BYU and St Mary's can at least make hail mary-like claims to a spot on the bubble.  I can't imagine either will matter by mid-March, but they're lurking

@Wofford 95, VMI 84
@East Tennessee St 91, Citadel 83
@Furman 57, UNC Greensboro 57 - UNCG needed this one to get into realistic at-large range; a quality road win would've done it.  As is, looks like both these teams are solid NIT teams right now but are running out of time to add quality wins to their resume.  Might be Wofford or bust for the SoCon at-large picture.  I really don't want that to be true, though

Hofstra 99, @Charleston 95 - this should put the CAA on ice.  I don't think they'll get there, but I wouldn't object to some Hofstra bubble talk.  Northeastern also won, and is in legitimate NIT at-large bid talk
Belmont 77, @Tennessee St 66 - Murray St keeps pace with Belmont, beating Austin Peay.  We're headed for another Belmont/Murray St showdown in a conference final, and Belmont has reasonable at-large hopes if they lose that.  Murray St probably doesn't, and is probably on the NIT bubble