Sunday, March 1, 2015

S-Curve 2/27

Mostly cosmetic changes, but enough seedings changed.

We'll see if Harvard and Valpo force me to revise early Saturday.

The 1 line:  Kentucky (28-0), Virginia (26-1), Duke (25-3), Gonzaga (28-1)
The 2 line:  Villanova (26-2), Wisconsin (25-3), Arizona (25-3), Kansas (22-6)
The 3 line:  Utah (21-5), Maryland (23-5), Iowa St (20-7), Notre Dame (24-5)
The 4 line:  Oklahoma (19-8), Northern Iowa (27-2), Baylor (20-7), Wichita St (25-3)
The 5 line:  North Carolina (19-9), Louisville (22-6), Providence (19-9), Georgetown (18-8)
The 6 line:  Arkansas (23-5), SMU (22-5), Butler (20-8), West Virginia (22-6)
The 7 line:  VCU (21-7), Oklahoma St (16-10), San Diego St (21-6), Xavier (18-11)
The 8 line:  Cincinnati (19-9), Ole Miss (19-9), North Carolina St (17-11), Indiana (19-10)
The 9 line:  Michigan St (19-9), Iowa (18-10), Colorado St (23-5), St John's (19-9)
The 10 line:  Dayton (21-6), Ohio St (20-8), LSU (20-8), Oregon (20-8)
The 11 line:  Georgia (18-9), Texas (17-11), Purdue (19-9), Temple (20-9), Stanford (18-9)
The 12 line:  UCLA (17-12), Pittsburgh (18-10), Stephen F Austin (20-4), Wofford (22-6), Iona (23-6)
The 13 line:  Harvard (17-5), Murray St (23-4), Louisiana Tech (21-7), Eastern Washington (18-7)
The 14 line:  Valparaiso (22-5), William & Mary (16-10), UC-Davis (19-5), Central Michigan (18-5)
The 15 line:  South Dakota St (19-8), High Point (19-7), North Carolina Central (18-6), Albany (20-8)
The 16 line:  New Mexico St (17-10), Texas Southern (15-12), Louisiana-Monroe (15-9), North Florida (16-11), St Francis(NY) (20-9), Bucknell (16-13)

Bubble in:
Xavier
Cincinnati
Ole Miss
North Carolina St
Indiana
Michigan St
Iowa
Colorado St
St John's
Dayton
Ohio St
LSU

Next 4 in:
Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Purdue

Last 4 in:
Temple
Stanford
UCLA
Pittsburgh

Last 4 out:
Miami (18-10)
Tulsa (20-6)
Davidson (19-6)
Texas A&M (19-8)

Next 4 out:
Boise St (19-7)
Illinois (17-11)
Old Dominion (21-6)
BYU (20-8)

Saturday, February 28, 2015

3/1 preview

Michigan St at Wisconsin - obviously this won't hurt MSU, but they're in a position where they sure can use the help
Oregon at Stanford - a deluxe bubble game
Purdue at Ohio St - another deluxe bubble game.  And OSU might need it more

Among those who need to hold:  SMU at UConn and Providence vs. Marquette, for seeding purposes.  Pitt's at Wake, UCLA hosts Washington St

2/28 recap

Signature wins!  Signature wins everywhere!

Big 12:
@Oklahoma 67, TCU 60
@Kansas St 70, Iowa St 69 - K-State's on the bubble, I guess.  I mean...what would YOU do with them?  There's too many signature wins to ignore.  I have no idea what to do with them...or Iowa St for that matter, who will bleed a seed line, and maybe more, with this
@Baylor 78, West Virginia 66
@Texas Tech 63, Oklahoma St 62 - OSU, you're still a lock, but I'd prefer you make my life easier
@Kansas 69, Texas 64

ACC:
Louisville 81, @Florida St 59
@Boston College 79, NC State 63 - what?!?!?!?!  Well I guess they're picking the right games to win, but this is an absolutely horrific loss
@Clemson 70, Georgia Tech 63 (OT)
North Carolina 73, @Miami 64 - this won't hurt Miami, but they're in the position where they need to help themselves
@Virginia 69, Virginia Tech 57
@Duke 73, Syracuse 54

Big 10:
@Maryland 66, Michigan 56
Iowa 81, @Penn St 77 (OT) - jesus, Iowa
@Illinois 86, Northwestern 60

Big East:
@St John's 81, Georgetown 70 - GU is in a tight battle on the 4-6 lines, can't afford losses like these; St John's is about to visit the lockbox
Villanova 78, @Xavier 66 - this won't hurt X
Butler 67, @DePaul 53
@Seton Hall 67, Creighton 66

Pac-12:
Arizona 63, @Utah 57- Zona, welcome back to the discussion for a 1 seed
@USC 70, Washington 55

SEC:
@Georgia 68, Missouri 44
@LSU 73, Ole Miss 63 - not the greatest week for Ole Miss.  Still in the field, but gave away some margin for error.  However, by losing to Georgia and LSU, they're really helping the rest of the conference out
@Kentucky 84, Arkansas 67
@Vanderbilt 73, Alabama 66
@South Carolina 81, Mississippi St 68
@Florida 66, Tennessee 49
@Texas A&M 80, Auburn 55

AAC:
Cincinnati 63, @Tulane 47
Tulsa 74, @Memphis 72 (OT) - Tulsa really insists on being as borderline a bubble team as possible, huh?

A-10:
Rhode Island 59, @LaSalle 56
Dayton 59, @VCU 55 - VCU bleeding significant seed lines; Dayton very close to the lockbox
@St Bonaventure 92, Duquesne 75
@UMass 82, Fordham 74
@Davidson 77, George Washington 66 - at some point, I just might put Davidson in my field
Richmond 63, @St Joseph's 57

MVC:
@Wichita St 74, Northern Iowa 60
Indiana St 60, @Bradley 52
Illinois St 69, @Evansville 67 (OT)

MW:
Utah St 74, @Air Force 60
Boise St 56, @San Diego St 46 - signature win!
@UNLV 69, Wyoming 57
@Fresno St 59, New Mexico 55

WCC:
@Santa Clara 71, St Mary's 70 - bye, St Mary's
BYU 73, @Gonzaga 70 - and hellooooooooooooooooooooo BYU!
@Pepperdine 65, Loyola Marymount 49

Small conferences:
- Stephen F Austin 102, @Houston Baptist 87.  And perhaps just as big, Sam Houston St finally messed up and lost on the road at TAMU-CC...SFA's finally got solo possession of the Southland lead
- MAC:  Central Michigan loses, so we're back to a 3-way CMU/BGU/Toledo tie.  2 to play
- Bucknell wins, clinches the Patriot League
- North Florida wins and is your A-Sun champ (FGCU loses again anyways)
- Texas Southern beats Alabama St to get control of the SWAC
- Green Bay wins over Oakland, which is important because they won't have an auto-bid to the NIT
- UC-Irvine loses, and UC-Davis leads by 2 with 2 to play in the Big West
- It was the final day in CAA play, and things got sideways.  UNC-Wilmington and William & Mary tied for the lead...and both lost.  Northeastern and James Madison were one back...and both won.  The result?  4-way tie!  Bill & Mary get the 1 seed and the NIT bid.
- Harvard and Yale win again in the Ivy
- Big Sky:  Montana beats EWU on the road; Sac State back in the lead there, but it's a 3-team race
- Final day in the greatest conference race ever, the Big South.  Charleston Southern beats High Point in 3OT..both finish 13-5 at the top, CSU gets the tiebreaker and NIT bid.  3 teams finish 12-6, one back
- CUSA:  Old Dominion 70, @North Texas 57 in bubble news.  In conference race news, LaTech wins again, and just about has the hammer on this conference race
- SoCon:  Wofford wins again
- The Sun Belt is eventful again - your co-leaders Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern lost, and that means Georgia St pulled even with both.
- Conference undefeateds Murray St and NCCU win
- South Dakota St lost to end up sharing the Summit title with NDSU.  SDSU has the 1 seed though

Missouri Valley conference tournament preview

This is part 1 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about every conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
Wichita St 17-1
Northern Iowa 16-2
Indiana St 11-7
Illinois St 11-7
Evansville 9-9
Loyola(Chi) 8-10
Drake 6-12
Missouri St 5-13
Southern Illinois 4-14
Bradley 3-15

Conference tournament format:  All 10 are heading to a neutral court in St Louis.  Traditional setup.  Played from Thursday March 5 to Sunday March 8.

Bracket:
1) Wichita St vs. 8/9) Missouri St/Southern Illinois
4) Illinois St vs. 5) Evansville
2) Northern Iowa vs. 7/10) Drake/Bradly
3) Indiana St vs. 6) Loyola(Chi)

The stakes:
Not a lot, frankly.  Well, some for UNI and Wichita, who are playing for seeding.  Right now, they could go anywhere from 4 to 7 based on your resume preferences.  Absorbing a loss before the title game would probably be worth two seeding lines.  If they meet in the finals, assume the winner will get a higher seed, and pencil them into the 4-7 range.

Everyone else is beyond reach of the NIT.  Your 3 seed, Indiana St, is under .500 against D-1 teams, at 14-15.  They need to reach the finals just to be NIT-eligible, and even then, they are way too far off the pace.  So is Illinois St, with the caveat that an upset win over Wichita might blip the NIT's radar.  The problem is such a win would only be their second top 100 win.

So pencil Illinois St, Evansville in for a CBI/CIT, if they want to play.  Indiana St would likely have the same option, although the CIT requires a .500 record.  Loyola is over .500 for the season, and should probably receive an invite as well.  The bottom 4 have been truly well and awful this year.

Friday, February 27, 2015

2/28 preview

Impact games.  Impact games everywhere!

Georgetown at St John's - G'town is playing for seeding, St John's isn't safe yet
Northern Iowa at Wichita St - this will help sort out the 4 line
North Carolina at Miami - signature win chance for a team in a conference that is bleeding signature wins right now to bubble teams
Villanova at Xavier - while X isn't safe, this is still a house money chance for them
Dayton at VCU - chance for Dayton to visit the lockbox, VCU is down to a 7 seed and could easily lose more seeding lines
Ole Miss at LSU - Ole Miss is still probably okay with a loss, but it removes most of their remaining margin of error.  Big game for LSU itself, of course
West Virginia at Baylor - typical Big 12 game
Arkansas at Kentucky - big implications for Arkansas' seed
High Point at Charleston Southern - HPU wins the Big South with a win, a loss brings all sorts of ties into play, including CSU
Texas at Kansas - it's almost not fair to call this mandatory for Texas, but it kinda is
Montana at Eastern Washington - both are part of a 4-way logjam at the top of the Big Sky
Texas Southern at Alabama St - for the SWAC lead with 2 to play
George Washington at Davidson - probably too late for GWU, now's the time for Davidson though
Tulsa at Memphis - not a trivial game for Tulsa
Boise St at San Diego St - all the wins to stay on the bubble, it's all building towards this moment for Boise
Arizona at Utah - Utah can almost lock itself on the 3 line with a win (I think the 2 line might be beyond them).  For 'Zona, it's their last best chance at a signature win to state their 1 seed case, because it seems like they're a half-step behind the Nova/Wisky/Gonzaga tier right now
BYU at Gonzaga - it's the season for BYU

On top of this, several conferences end season play.  And a myriad of other bubble teams in must-hold situation.  TOO MANY GAMES

2/27 recap

- Valparaiso 56, @Cleveland St 53 - Valpo wins the Horizon
- Iona wins yet again and seems very solid to make the 12 line
- Harvard loses on the road at Cornell, and Yale beating Princeton means Harvard and Yale are square on 9-2.  3 to play

2/27 preview

Game of the year in the Horizon:  12-3 Valparaiso at 11-4 Cleveland St.  Finale.  A Valpo win clinches the Horizon.  A Cleveland St win ties the two at 12-4...and then Oakland plays at Green Bay on Saturday, both of those teams are 11-4.  So we would have a 3-way tie atop the Horizon.  As best I can tell, Cleveland St would win a 3-way CSU/Valpo/GB tiebreaker for the 1 seed, and if Oakland won, as best as I can tell, the tiebreaker would go so deep between Oakland and Cleveland St that it would depend on the finish of the bottom 3 teams in the conference.

tl;dr pray Valpo wins or we have a tiebreaker mess on our hands

On Ivy Friday, Harvard at Cornell and Princeton at Yale

Iona's already clinched the MAAC, they have Manhattan at home