Monday, January 26, 2015

S-Curve 1/19

The 1 line:  Kentucky (17-0), Virginia (17-0), Villanova (17-1), Duke (15-2)
The 2 line:  Arizona (16-2), Gonzaga (18-1), Wisconsin (16-2), Kansas (14-3)
The 3 line:  Maryland (17-2), Iowa St (13-3), North Carolina (14-4), VCU (15-3)
The 4 line:  Utah (14-3), Wichita St (16-2), West Virginia (15-3), Notre Dame (17-2)
The 5 line:  Texas (13-4), Seton Hall (13-4), Oklahoma (12-5), Louisville (15-3)
The 6 line:  Baylor (13-4), Northern Iowa (16-2), Providence (14-5), SMU (14-4)
The 7 line:  San Diego St (14-4), Arkansas (13-4), Stanford (13-4), Ohio St (14-5)
The 8 line:  Butler (13-6), Dayton (15-2), Oklahoma St (12-5), Indiana (14-4)
The 9 line:  Georgetown (12-5), Cincinnati (12-5), Michigan St (12-6), Iowa (13-5)
The 10 line:  North Carolina St (13-6), George Washington (14-4), Georgia (11-5), Old Dominion (15-2)
The 11 line:  Xavier (12-6), Colorado St (17-2), Miami (12-5), Syracuse (13-5), St John's (12-5), St Mary's (15-3)
The 12 line:  Tulsa (12-5), Buffalo (12-4), Harvard (10-4), Western Kentucky (12-5)
The 13 line:  Northeastern (13-5), Iona (13-6), North Carolina Central (13-5), Cleveland St (11-9)
The 14 line:  Eastern Illinois (12-6), Sam Houston St (13-4), UC-Davis (14-3), Texas Southern (7-10)
The 15 line:  Coastal Carolina (14-4), Louisiana-Monroe (11-6), North Dakota St (12-6), Sacramento St (11-6)
The 16 line:  St Francis(NY) (11-8), Albany (9-7), North Florida (11-9), Mercer (11-9), Seattle (9-8), Colgate (8-11)

Next 4 in:
Old Dominion
Colorado St

Last 4 in:
St John's
St Mary's

Last 4 out:
LSU (13-4)
BYU (13-6)
Washington (13-4)
Pittsburgh (13-5)

Next 4 out:
Wyoming (16-3)
Tennessee (11-5)
Texas A&M (11-5)
Alabama (12-5)

Consideration board:
Temple (12-7)
UConn (9-7)
UCLA (11-7)
Florida (10-7)
TCU (14-3)
Davidson (12-4)
...and it goes on and on from here.  I could easily list another 20 teams.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

1/25 preview

Indiana at Ohio St - all of a sudden, it's Indiana who's the lock and OSU who's in trouble
Duke at St John's - this won't fix St John's conference record, but it'll fix other resume flaws
Seton Hall at Butler - a loss won't hurt either too badly; unless it's part of a longer losing streak
Northern Iowa at Illinois - a non-trivial spot on the road
Louisville at Pittsburgh - perhaps the best chance Pitt has this season of forging into the bubble race
Notre Dame at NC State - UND still has to battle their SoS, so every one of these count
Washington at Utah - U-Dub need to rally back a bit to make it back on the right side of the bubble

Saturday, January 24, 2015

1/24 recap

Conference by conference:

Big 12
@Kansas St 63, Oklahoma St 53 - ok, so we're going to have to deal with K-State pretty soon if this continues.  Their non-con was terrible but if they convert 5-2 into 11-7 in this conference...there's too many quality wins in those 11 to keep them out.  The more interesting immediate debate is OSU, who is now pretty clearly #7 among the 7 teams in this conference that are supposed to be sure-fire tourney teams
@West Virginia 86, TCU 85 (OT) - this has gotta be it for TCU, without a significant rally
Kansas 75, @Texas 62 - a useful game when making the case for a 1 seed
@Texas Tech 78, Iowa St 73 - catastrophic loss for ISU
@Baylor 69, Oklahoma 58 - as I said before, these games where the home teams hold are zero-sum

@Clemson 59, Wake Forest 57
@North Carolina 78, Florida 74
Miami 66, @Syracuse 62 - bubble team beats bubble team on the road.  Significant result

@Purdue 67, Iowa 63 - I'd prefer Iowa not give these types of games away to make my job easier
@Penn St 79, Rutgers 51
@Minnesota 79, Illinois 71 - I din't think UI is surviving this bubble season all the way to March.  Neither might Minnesota
@Nebraska 79, Michigan St 77 - ok, now it's time to officially worry about Izzo making the tourney
Wisconsin 69, @Michigan 64 (OT) - wasn't mandatory for UM, but this would've solved a lot of problems

Big East
@Xavier 89, DePaul 76 - good
Georgetown 95, @Marquette 85 (OT)

@Oregon 82, UCLA 64 - honestly still not sure what to do with Oregon yet
@Oregon St 59, USC 55 - and Oregon St too
@Colorado 90, Washington St 58
Arizona 73, @California 50
@Stanford 89, Arizona St 70

Kentucky 58, @South Carolina 43
Texas A&M 67, @Tennessee 61 - road wins are gold; time to really start thinking about A&M in the field of 68
Arkansas 61, @Missouri 60 - hey, a road win!
Georgia 72, @Mississippi St 66
LSU 79, @Vanderbilt 75 (OT) - hey, another road win!
@Ole Miss 72, Florida 71 - but not here
@Alabama 57, Auburn 55

@George Washington 74, Duquesne 59
@Dayton 63, Richmond 60
Davidson 80, @George Mason 73 (OT)

Tulsa 66, East Carolina 64
@SMU 80, Houston 59
Memphis 57, @Tulane 55

Boise St 77, @Air Force 68
@Wyoming 63, New Mexico 62 (OT) - important home hold
@UNLV 79, Utah St 77 (OT)
@Colorado St 79, San Diego St 73 - significant, significant result for CSU

@Indiana St 72, Loyola(Chi) 61 - the end of Loyola's bubble contention; meanwhile ISU is 6-2 in the MVC but nowhere near the NIT.  Awkward
@Evansville 75, Southern Illinois 66 - which means I guess it's up to UE to save the conference's NIT hopes

@San Diego 77, BYU 74 - catastrophic loss for BYU, and it feels like they're about to lose the draft of the bubble
@Gonzaga 91, Pacific 60
St Mary's 74, @Portland 64
@Santa Clara 60, Pepperdine 57 - yeah, this 4-team race in the WCC is really a 2-team one

@UAB 81, Old Dominion 68 - okay, time to panic for ODU.  The resume can't absorb too many more of these
- The race in CUSA is getting weird, so we need to break this out.  Easy stuff first:  WKU is still the only undefeated team after beating UTSA, and UTEP lost at Marshall and is definitely off the pace now.  Right now it's:  WKU 7-0, LaTech and UAB on 6-1, MTSU on 5-2, and ODU and UTEP on 4-3.  The 4-team breakaway is not including the 4 teams I thought it would, and UAB and MTSU (especially UAB) having bad resumes are going to wreck ODU in particular right now

Other conferences
- Over in the MAC, Akron won at WMU, Kent won at Ball St, Ohio upset Buffalo at home, Toledo held over BGU at home.  All of this now means that Kent is your new solo leader at 5-1.  This will change, and often.
- In the Ivy, we're already down to 2 undefeateds after 2 matchdays.  Yale on 2-0; Princeton on 1-0.  This is because Dartmouth, on the road, bounced Harvard.
- In the Colonial, William & Mary holds over Northeastern at home, and we've got a 3-way tie there among these two teams and UNC-Wilmington now.
- After another day in the Big South, 3 way tie at 6-2, and 4 more teams are on 5-3.  Funtime!
- The Northeast is tightening up; RMU beats St Francis(NY) on the road, and those two and Bryant are joint leaders on 6-2
- all of a sudden, it's a 2 game lead in the loss column for Murray St in the OVC
- North Florida beats Lipscomb on the road to assume control of the A-Sun
- Stephen F Austin 79, @Sam Houston St 68, so guess who controls the Southland
- Texas Southern loses at UAPB.  A lot of my seeding of them assumed a perfect run in the SWAC.  For now...they did beat K-State, so I have no idea what to do
- everyone in the Summit's got 2 losses already.  Not good
- New Mexico St leads the WAC again
- you tell me who the best team in the Sun Belt is.  Because I have no idea.  Ga Southern leads on 6-2 for now

1/24 preview

Just the notable games listed:

In the meat grinder of the Big 12:  Oklahoma St at K-State, Kansas at Texas, TCU at WVU, Iowa St at TTU, Oklahoma at Baylor

DePaul at Xavier - will someone just end this DePaul fad already?
Texas A&M at Tennessee - both teams lurking a bit off the bubble pace, winner gets closer.  A lot of the rest of the SEC is in action too, but in mostly bubble vs. non-bubble matchups
Miami at Syracuse - gigantic bubble battle
Michigan St at Nebraska - must win for MSU
Wisconsin at Michigan - well, here's Michigan's back door into the bubble discussion
San Diego St at Colorado St - I can't stress how important this is to CSU

Lots of hold-serve games...Iowa at Purdue, Georgetown at Marquette, Illinois at Minnesota, Arkansas at Missouri, Georgia at Mississippi St, New Mexico at Wyoming, Old Dominion at UAB, Davidson at George Mason, St Mary's at Portland among the more critical of them.

Stephen F Austin at Sam Houston St - for control of the Southland
Akron at Western Michigan - probably the best MAC game of the day
Louisiana-Lafayette at Georgia St - this looked a lot juicier in November

Friday, January 23, 2015

1/23 recap

VCU 63, @St Louis 61
@Green Bay 51, Valparaiso 50
Cleveland St holds at home over Detroit, Monmouth to 7-2 in the MAAC


1/23 preview

Only 6 games, but a couple non-trivial ones:

VCU at St Louis - not the easiest road spot
Valparaiso at Green Bay - here's 2 of your tri-leaders in the Horizon, at 5-1.  Cleveland St hosting Detroit tonight also

1/22 recap

The "What the **** is going on" result of the night:
DePaul 64, @Seton Hall 60 - DePaul goes on the road, and wins and is 5-2 in the Big East.  WHAT?!?!?!?!?!?

Significant results:
@Providence 69, Xavier 66 (OT) - gotta hold serve at home in the conference.  Provi at 5-2 and might be establishing itself as Big East #2
@Arkansas 93, Alabama 91 (OT) - kinda feels like 'Bama is not going to be able to keep pace in the SEC bubble race
@Miami 65, NC State 60 - in bubble battles, home teams winning means status quo for now
Arizona 89, @Stanford 82 - quality road win, no real harm to Stanford
Indiana 89, @Maryland 70 - it might be tough to ask Maryland to stay in the race for a top 3 seed for the rest of the year.  Meanwhile, Indiana trending upwards and at 5-1 in the B1G, are giving themselves lots of cushion
@Gonzaga 68, St Mary's 47 - road loss, so no biggie.  But getting the return game might be mandatory

Catastrophic losses, CUSA edition:
@Middle Tennessee 68, Old Dominion 58 (OT) - all of a sudden, that at-large bid for ODU is slipping away.  Further, I talked about that 4 team round-robin at the top of the CUSA standings...this is ODU's 2nd loss outside of that round robin.  They're in big big trouble now
@North Texas 73, Louisiana Tech 66 - and meanwhile, LaTech did itself no favors either
@Western Kentucky 71, UTEP 66 (OT) - and the other preseason fave, UTEP, loses as well.  Meanwhile, WKU gets a game within the round-robin and now has clear control of CUSA.  Which is a disaster for CUSA because they're ahead of 3 teams with better at-large profiles

Catastrophic losses, other division:
@Oregon St 66, UCLA 55 - I'm not sure at what point we have to start taking OSU seriously, but I'm not there yet
Arizona St 79, @California 44 - drive a stake in them already

Holding serve:
@Temple 73, South Florida 48
Notre Dame 85, @Virginia Tech 60
@UConn 67, Central Florida 60
George Washington 79, @Fordham 59
Ohio St 69, @Northwestern 67
@Rhode Island 59, LaSalle 47
@Virginia 57, Georgia Tech 28
Washington 52, @Colorado 50
@Oregon 75, USC 67

- Iona 78, @Rider 68 - road win for control of the MAAC
- With losses by Coastal Carolina and High Point on the road, everyone in the Big South has already absorbed 2 losses.  This might end up being one of the best conference races in the country
- Albany goes to 6-0 and is the last undefeated in AEast, as Vermont loses
- After a full day in the SoCon, Chattanooga and Wofford are joint 6-1 leaders
- Northeastern beats JMU and leads the Colonial by a full game
- Murray St 77, @Eastern Illinois 62, for control of the OVC
- Eastern Washington is still trapped a half game behind Sacramento St in the Big Sky
- Pepperdine lost on the road at San Fran; I don't think they can turn the 3-team breakaway in the WCC into a 4-team breakaway
- UC Davis loses at Hawaii; still has control of the Big West by a half-game.  But several good teams lurk, and this might be my 2nd favorite conference race behind the Big South