Sunday, March 17, 2019

FINAL NIT projections

The 1 line:  UNC Greensboro, Alabama, TCU, Indiana
The 2 line:  Furman, Texas, North Carolina St, Creighton
The 3 line:  Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line:  Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line:  Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line:  Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, Hofstra
The 7 line:  Harvard, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line:  Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St

Last 4 in:  BYU, Utah, Oregon St, Toledo,
Last 4 out:  East Tennessee St, Wichita St, San Francisco, Fresno St






1) UNC Greensboro vs. 8) Campbell
4) Nebraska vs. 5) Arkansas
3) Georgetown vs. 6) Hofstra
2) North Carolina St vs. 7) Wright St

1) Alabama vs. 8) Norfolk St
4) Davidson vs. 5) Providence
3) Clemson vs. 6) Toledo
2) Furman vs. 7) Harvard

1) Indiana vs. 8) St Francis(PA)
4) Xavier vs. 5) Dayton
3) Lipscomb vs. 6) Utah
2) Texas vs. 7) South Dakota St

1) TCU vs. 8) Sam Houston St
4) Colorado vs. 5) BYU
3) Memphis vs. 6) Oregon St
2) Creighton vs. 7) Loyola(Chi)

FINAL SEED LIST

The 1 line:  Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line:  Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line:  Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Iowa St, Auburn, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line:  Mississippi St, Marquette, Buffalo, Maryland
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Minnesota
The 9 line:  Oklahoma, Baylor, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line:  UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line:  VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line:  Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  St Louis, Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St
The 14 line:  UC Irvine, Vermont, Bradley, Yale
The 15 line:  Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

My official final bubble is 5 teams playing 3 spots.

Last 3 in:
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana

Last 2 out:
Temple
Belmont

FINAL BRACKET

Balance became an issue.  Had to send Tennessee west.

EAST 35
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/Prairie View A&M
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Florida
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Auburn vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Bradley
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) St Mary's
@Hartford
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) UCF

WEST 35
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/North Carolina Central
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Louis
5) Villanova vs. 12) Oregon
@Jacksonville
3) Florida St vs. 14) Yale
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Columbus
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa

MIDWEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Minnesota vs. 9) Baylor
@San Jose
4) Kansas vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) Arizona St

SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Iona
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Liberty
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Indiana
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington

3/17 recap

B1G finals:
Michigan St 65, Michigan 60

SEC finals:
Auburn 84, Tennessee 64 - Auburn gains a seed line late.  Let's see if the committee cares.  Gonzaga to the 1 line

AAC finals:
Cincinnati 69, Houston 57 - well, that settled the 2 line debate for Houston

Ivy finals:
Yale 97, Harvard 85

A-10 finals:
St Louis 55, St Bonaventure 53

Fun Belt finals:
Georgia St 73, UT Arlington 64

3/17 AM BRACKET

EAST 36
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/North Carolina Central
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Oklahoma
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Bonaventure
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Indiana
@Hartford
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Washington

WEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Auburn vs. 11) St Mary's
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) Montana
7) Nevada vs. 10) Iowa

MIDWEST 32
@Columbus
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Iona
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Minnesota
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Villanova vs. 12) Liberty
@Jacksonville
3) Florida St vs. 14) Harvard
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Louisville vs. 10) UCF

SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Baylor vs. 9) Florida
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Oregon
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Bradley
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Arizona St

Saturday, March 16, 2019

3/17 AM SEED LIST

Moving Duke to #2 overall.  I wouldn't argue with anyone who moves them to #1 overall, and their #2 SoS is sterling.  Just feel like Virginia kept a cleaner sheet throughout the year.

Gonzaga/UNC/Tennessee/Kentucky can go in almost any order.  Gonzaga's SoS hung tough all year - 52 overall.  I think I move Tennessee to 3rd as they kept the cleanest sheet all year (no losses outside Q1a).

This is an unusual case where we have a lot of feedback within the top 6 teams.  Duke swept Virginia; Gonzaga beat Duke but lost to Tennessee/UNC; Tennessee took 2 of 3 off of UK; UNC took 2 of 3 off of Duke , Kentucky beat UNC.  That's an incredible amount of feedback, and it also instructs us to one inevitable problem:  someone's gonna get seeded right behind a team they beat, and there's no way to avoid that.  With that in mind, I think the committee gives the West to UNC, knowing Gonzaga can be the 2 in the west.  But boy, I don't feel very confident about this call.

People think Michigan St can be on the 1 line...don't see it.  They're closed out of the feedback loop I mentioned above, and a couple sloppy losses doom them.  I've been debating Houston vs. Michigan and have changed my mind a few times already.  I reserve the right to change my mind again.

I almost put Kansas on the 3 line, but I think the committee eye tests them down to the 4 line.  No arguments if they move up, though.

I almost moved Villanova higher.  13 Q2 wins!  But the Big East was such a Q2 factory.  They had 8 wins alone in Q2b, and I almost have to admit their 13 Q2 win total is a bit of a byproduct of the arbitrary cutoffs.  I think the 5 line is fair for them.  As for Va Tech, I almost pulled the trigger to move them down to a 6.  I think there's a legit argument there.  That's another case where I think the eye test will be used.

I did some seed scrubbing in the lower lines, but those are much less interesting to write about.  To the bubble we go.

I dunno, I'm staring at Indiana's wins, and every other bubble team's wins, and I'm having a tougher time thinking they'll be left out.  Same kinda vibe I have with Texas.  I'm looking at the TCU/Ohio St/Belmont/Temple gaggle and seeing the same generic problem of lack of impact wins.  I'm going with the compromise solution for now (Indiana in, Texas out), but man, I'm waffling.

We've seen 15-loss teams sneak in (but they're usually something like 19-15).  Does 17-15 make it?  16-16 probably can't.

I'm also moving up Creighton a bit to hedge my bet.  Don't see them making it but I see a lot of similar characteristics to bubble teams in their profile.

It's brutal that I keep slipping these SoCon teams further down but there's so much traffic still on the bubble this late.  Brutal for Furman, who I had in like 2 days ago.  A-10 and Pac-12 poachings cost 2 spots, then the executive call on Indiana.

The PIG has moved up to the 11 line, which is a big BIG BIG deal.  The way it had been lined up, one of them would've had to be sent to San Jose.  Not so now.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, North Carolina
The 2 line:  Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line:  Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line:  Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line:  Mississippi St, Iowa St, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line:  Marquette, Buffalo, Auburn, Maryland
The 7 line:  Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line:  Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor
The 9 line:  Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line:  UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line:  VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line:  Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St, St Bonaventure
The 14 line:  UC Irvine, Harvard, Vermont, Bradley
The 15 line:  Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line:  Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

Next 4 in:
Iowa
Arizona St
Washington
VCU

Last 4 in:
St John's
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana

Last 4 out:
Temple
Belmont
Furman
Texas

Next 4 out:
North Carolina St
UNC Greensboro
Creighton
Alabama

NIT lines:
The 1 line:  Temple, Belmont, Furman, Texas
The 2 line:  North Carolina St, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Alabama
The 3 line:  Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line:  Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line:  Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line:  Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
The 7 line:  Hofstra, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line:  Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St

Last 4 in:  Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
Last 4 out:  Wichita St, San Francisco, South Carolina, Fresno St
Next 4 out:  Butler, St Louis, South Florida, Utah Valley

3/16 recap

ACC finals:
Duke 73, Florida St 63

SEC semis:
Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78 - god, what a mess the 1 line is now.  Thoughts coming very soon
Auburn 65, Florida 62

B1G semis:
Michigan St 67, Wisconsin 55 - it's all window dressing at this point for all B1G teams, they're locked into seeds IMO
Michigan 76, Minnesota 49

AAC semis:
Houston 61, Memphis 58
Cincinnati 66, Wichita St 63 - 2 very important service holds means the committee is freed up tomorrow to do some extra bracketing.  Thank God

Big East finals:
Villanova 74, Seton Hall 72

Big 12 finals:
Iowa St 78, Kansas 66 - KU's seed is going to be fascinating

Pac-12 finals:
Oregon 68, Washington 48

MWC finals:
Utah St 64, San Diego St 57

A-10 semis:
St Bonaventure 68, Rhode Island 51
St Louis 67, Davidson 44 - oh god, what happened to the A-10 tournament.  This is a tire fire of a final

MAC finals:
Buffalo 87, Bowling Green 73 - one day, my dream of a multi-bid MAC will come to fruition

AEast finals:
Vermont 66, UMBC 49

CUSA finals:
Old Dominion 62, Western Kentucky 56

Southland finals:
Abilene Christian 77, New Orleans 60

WAC finals:
New Mexico St 89, Grand Canyon 57

MEAC finals:
North Carolina Central 50, Norfolk St 47

SWAC finals:
Prairie View A&M 92, Texas Southern 86

Big Sky finals:
Montana 68, Eastern Washington 62

Big West finals:
UC Irvine 92, Cal St Fullerton 64

Ivy semis:
Harvard 66, Penn 58
Yale 83, Princeton 77

Fun Belt semis:
Georgia St 59, Texas St 46
UT Arlington 67, Georgia Southern 58