Sunday, January 26, 2020


I am laughing so hard at what I inadvertently did to the midwest region.  Kansas, Duke, Michigan St, Kentucky, Arizona, Ohio St, Michigan.  Have fun with that.

I know the 3-6-11 lines are broken.  Let's take you behind the scenes.  I have 2 B1G and 1 ACC team on the 3 line, and 2 B1G teams on the 6 line.  There are 2 ACC and 2 B1G teams in the play-in games, that have to be on the 11 line.  Avoiding conflict is impossible, some inter-conference matchups had to be possible in the first two rounds.  I sorta kinda found a tolerable solution, but it resulted in Dayton and VCU in the same subregional, so that was a no-go.  And on top of that, BYU and their no Sunday crap was on the 11 line.

So in the end?  I threw the B1G teams and ACC teams against each other in the play-in games.  Accepted that conflict while solving the other ones.  I'm not going to try and solve an impossible bracket problem in January.  Deal with it.

1) Baylor vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Florida
4) Butler vs. 13) North Texas
5) Auburn vs. 12) East Tennessee St
@St Louis
3) Dayton vs. 14) Arkansas-Little Rock
6) Colorado vs. 11) Purdue/Minnesota
2) Florida St vs. 15) Montana
7) Marquette vs. 10) Memphis

1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Stanford vs. 9) Texas Tech
4) Villanova vs. 13) Vermont
5) LSU vs. 12) Northern Iowa
3) Maryland vs. 14) William & Mary
6) Wichita St vs. 11) VCU
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Rutgers vs. 10) Oklahoma

1) San Diego St vs. 16) Monmouth
8) Indiana vs. 9) USC
4) Oregon vs. 13) Stephen F Austin
5) Creighton vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Louisville vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Penn St vs. 11) BYU
2) West Virginia vs. 15) Wright St
7) Illinois vs. 10) St Mary's

1) Kansas vs. 16) North Florida/Texas Southern
8) Ohio St vs. 9) Arkansas
4) Kentucky vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Iowa vs. 12) Akron
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Colgate
6) Arizona vs. 11) Virginia Tech/Syracuse
2) Duke vs. 15) Austin Peay
7) Houston vs. 10) Michigan


Feel like the identity of the 1 line is pretty well set.  Things are sure to change though.  Teams on the 2 line are going to pick up signature wins, due to the way the teams on the 1 line are clustered.  Whoever inevitably wins the Big East, ACC, and B1G are going to come for the 1 line.

The 4 line is kind of a transition line for me.  Feel good about the top 12-15 separating from the pack.  But once you get to the 5-8 lines, you could almost put these teams in any order and I wouldn't complain.

I haven't fully scrubbed this so I'm sure there's probably a couple spots where I've deviated from the data.

You can tell where I threw my hands up and just threw a bunch of B1G teams into the field.  They have 10 in, and I really didn't want to do 12....but who else would've gone in?

The 1 line:  Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Seton Hall, Duke, West Virginia, Florida St
The 3 line:  Maryland, Michigan St, Dayton, Louisville
The 4 line:  Oregon, Butler, Villanova, Kentucky
The 5 line:  Iowa, Auburn, LSU, Creighton
The 6 line:  Colorado, Arizona, Penn St, Wichita St
The 7 line:  Rutgers, Illinois, Marquette, Houston
The 8 line:  Stanford, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana
The 9 line:  USC, Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas
The 10 line:  St Mary's, Memphis, Michigan, Oklahoma
The 11 line:  BYU, VCU, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Syracuse, Minnesota
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, East Tennessee St, Akron, Yale
The 13 line:  North Texas, Stephen F Austin, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line:  William & Mary, UC-Irvine, Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 15 line:  Wright St, Montana, South Dakota St, Austin Peay
The 16 line:  Winthrop, Monmouth, North Florida, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:

Last 4 in:
Virginia Tech

Last 4 out:
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa*
Rhode Island

Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
Arizona St

Break it down!:
B1G 12
Big East 5
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
A-10 2

1/26 recap

@San Diego St 71, UNLV 67

Michigan St 70, @Minnesota 52
Maryland 77, @Indiana 76 - quality road win.  Starting to feel a little confident Maryland and MSU will eventually separate from the pack in conference, give or take an Illinois
Ohio St 71, @Northwestern 59 - ok, so OSU avoids rock bottom at least

@Oregon 96, UCLA 75
@Cal 52, Stanford 50 - not a good loss, even on the road

@Houston 68, South Florida 49
Tulsa 79, @UConn 75 (OT) - Tulsa probably isn't relevant but I'll keep an eye out

Virginia 65, @Wake 63 (OT) - UVa is doing the bare minimum to stay in the bubble conversation

@St Louis 55, Fordham 39

@Creighton 77, Xavier 66

@Northern Iowa 67, Loyola(Chi) 62 (OT)

Saturday, January 25, 2020

1/25 recap

Big 12/SEC contrived matchup series:
Baylor 72, @Florida 61 - more of a tough break for Florida to draw the most unwinnable game
@Kansas 74, Tennessee 68
@West Virginia 74, Missouri 51 - boy, WVU should probably be offended that they got stuck with this game
Kentucky 76, @Texas Tech 74 - a signature road win for a team that could've used one
@Auburn 80, Iowa St 76 - just like WVU, a team here that has to be disappointed with the matchup
LSU 69, @Texas 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Oklahoma 63, Mississippi St 62
Oklahoma St 73, @Texas A&M 62
@Arkansas 78, TCU 67
@Alabama 77, Kansas St 74

Illinois 64, @Michigan 62 - huh, so Illinois is a thing this year
@Rutgers 75, Nebraska 72 - could you imagine if Rutgers lost this game?

@Florida St 85, Notre Dame 84
@Louisville 80, Clemson 62
@North Carolina 94, Miami 71
@Syracuse 69, Pittsburgh 61
@Boston College 61, Virginia Tech 56 - Syracuse and Va Tech will be two ugly bubble teams by March
@Georgia Tech 64, NC State 58 - and NCSU too.  Oy, ACC, what are you doing this year

Big East:
Villanova 64, @Providence 60
St John's 79, @DePaul 66

@Arizona St 66, Arizona 65
@Colorado 76, Washington 62 - Washington became irrelevant in a hurry here
USC 75, @Oregon St 55 - road wins are never trivial
@Utah 76, Washington St 64

Dayton 87, @Richmond 79 - a legitimate road win, and a precious Q1 chance by the boards for Richmond
VCU 76, @LaSalle 65
@UMass 73, Duquesne 64 - ok, it's the beginning of the end of Duquesne
@Rhode Island 81, St Bonaventure 75

SMU 74, @Memphis 70 - what is you doing Memphis
@Wichita St 87, UCF 79

@Gonzaga 92, Pacific 59
@San Francisco 83, BYU 82 - it's not a bad loss, but doesn't mean it isn't costly
Santa Clara 65, @San Diego 52 - SC is building up a gaudy record if nothing else
St Mary's 73, @Loyola Marymount 62

@Stenson 48, Liberty 43 - UNF was a semi-forgivable loss.  This one isn't.  Endgame.

Friday, January 24, 2020

1/24 recap

@Butler 89, Marquette 85 (OT)
@Purdue 70, Wisconsin 51 - man, there's going to be some ugly W-L marks out of this conference

1/23 recap

@Indiana 67, Michigan St 63 - the entire top of the Big 10 might wind up on the 4 line
Minnesota 62, @Ohio St 59 - ok, now really worried about what to do with OSU

@Oregon 79, USC 70 (2OT) - game effort by USC, but this won't hurt them at least
@Colorado 78, Washington St 56
@Utah 67, Washington 66
UCLA 62, @Oregon St 58

@Houston 63, UConn 59

BYU 74, @Pacific 60
@St Mary's 58, San Francisco 48

@North Florida 71, Liberty 70 - probably the toughest game on the board for Liberty in conference play, but given how low the conference is, perfection was probably required for at-large relevancy

1/22 recap

@Iowa 85, Rutgers 80
Penn St 72, @Michigan 63 - precious, precious road win.  Michigan has time, but they're taking on too many losses in the B1G

@Louisville 68, Georgia Tech 64
Syracuse 84, @Notre Dame 82 - by default, it feels like Syracuse will be our ACC bubble team this year
@Virginia Tech 79, UNC 77 (2OT) - VT has to beat the home cupcakes more convincingly if they want to make the tourney
@Pitt 74, BC 72

Big East:
@Seton Hall 73, Providence 64
@Xavier 66, Georgetown 57 - GU starting to absorb too many losses
Creighton 83, @DePaul 68 - road wins are never trivial, and DePaul is now at risk of becoming trivial, yet again

@Auburn 80, South Carolina 67
@Mississippi St 77, Arkansas 70 - UA shows they're a tier below the top tier in the SEC
Alabama 77, @Vandy 62

@Dayton 86, St Bonaventure 60
@Richmond 75, LaSalle 57
@Rhode Island 77, Duquesne 55 - uh oh Duquesne.  Don't backslide now
@Davidson 71, St Louis 59 - road loss, so somewhat forgivable, but at risk of falling behind the A-10 leaders

@Tulsa 80, Memphis 40 - what
Cincinnati 89, @Temple 82 - Cincy has major resume problems, but don't appear to be dead yet

@Southern Illinois 68, Northern Iowa 66 - I figure UNI can spend a couple more road losses, but be careful