Sunday, November 19, 2017

11/17 recap

Signature win of the day:
Virginia 76, @VCU 67 - road win that should be Tier 1 by March

assorted results:
@Vanderbilt 79, UNC-Asheville 76 - UNC-A is half decent
North Dakota St 57, @Missouri St 54 - prospective Summit favorite wins on road at prospective MVC favorite
@New Mexico St 75, New Mexico 56
Virginia Tech 103, Washington 79 - neutral site win
Providence 90, St Louis 63 - Provi gets two kind of useful neutral site wins in 2 days

the lolwat result of the day:
Concordia-St Paul 69, @Milwaukee 55 - wat

Oh my god it's a tidal wave of tournaments!:

Bahamas:
Vermont 65, Bradley 64
Northern Kentucky 87, James Madison 78
Iona 80, Weber St 72
Coastal Carolina 83, UTSA 69
Vermont is the best team here and really could use 3 wins

Charleston:
Temple 88, Auburn 74
Old Dominion 62, Indiana St 44
Clemson 78, Hofstra 59
Dayton 79, Ohio 65

Paradise Jam:
Mercer 63, Liberty 48
Drexel 84, Houston 80
Colorado 70, Quinnipiac 69
Drake 77, Wake Forest 74 - boy, Wake sucks

Puerto Rico:
Boise St 82, Illinois St 64
Western Michigan 86, Appalachian St 67
Iowa St 80, Tulsa 78
South Carolina 80, UTEP 56
First round here....looks like the 4 best teams, and the 4 teams closest to bubble relevance, won

Jamaica:
Tulane 80, Colorado St 53
Florida St 67, Fordham 43
Miami(OH) 78, LIU 74

Saturday, November 18, 2017

11/16 recap

Signature win of the day:
Xavier 80, @Wisconsin 70 - likely will end up as a Tier 1 win; you can never have a shortage of those

potent potables:
@St John's 79, Nebraska 56 - we'll need to pay attention to St John's this year, probably
St Louis 77, Virginia Tech 71 - goes down as a solid neutral site win for the A-10 and a minor disaster for Va Tech (that can be recovered from, though)
Providence 77, Washington 70 - another neutral site game, although it feels like UW might not be good enough to make this win matter
Belmont 69, @Middle Tennessee 63 - likely won't impact the bubble, but the OVC favorite goes on the road to beat the CUSA favorite.  Interesting
@Utah 77, Missouri 59 - road loss, so no big deal, but if I were Mizzou, I wouldn't want to give up bubble equity during the non-con in spots like this

Puerto Rico Tip-Off:
Illinois St 69, South Carolina 65 - the one common theme with these tournaments is:  DON'T GET TRAPPED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE BRACKET.  South Carolina did untold amounts of damage to its resume with this.  One bad loss and two bad games upcoming, while the other side of the bracket has quality win chances
Boise St 58, UTEP 56 - this also hurts Boise, by the way.  BSU is a team that needs to stack quality win chances on top of each other, and just had one taken away from them
Iowa St 104, Appalachian St 98
Tulsa 81, Western Michigan 74
Big early tourney for Boise, who needs to pile up quality wins before they step into the MWC

Charleston:
Auburn 83, Indiana St 64
Temple 76, Old Dominion 65
Clemson 81, Ohio 76
Hofstra 72, Dayton 69 - not good for Dayton
Interesting little tournament here, as any loss by anybody could be perceived as a bad loss, but the winner will pick up 3 neutral site wins and get a modest resume boost

11/15 recap

signature wins of the day:
Creighton 92, @Northwestern 88 - not a killer for NU, plenty of quality win chances coming.  Bigger deal is a prospective bubble team adding a road win of note

results of note:
@Seton Hall 84, Indiana 68 - Indiana is not good this year
@UCLA 106, Central Arkansas 101 (OT) - wait, what?
BYU 65, @Princeton 56 - road wins are never trivial
@Maryland 79, Butler 65 - two probable tourney teams, so this result is mostly a non-factor for now

Thursday, November 16, 2017

11/14 recap

Signature wins of the day:
Duke 88, Michigan St 81 - truth of the matter is, these wins mean less than you think.  Both teams have treasure troves of signature win chances coming, so the impact of this will be diminished over time.  Still, it's a useful chip to have, but only if one of them is competing for a spot on the 1 line, or both are ranked near each other.  Head-to-head doesn't seem to impact the committee that much
Kansas 65, Kentucky 61 - same deal here, especially with an improved SEC.  These chances aren't as critical to UK anymore

wins of note:
Purdue 86, @Marquette 71 - if you learn anything from this blog, it's that road wins are never trivial

losses of note:
@Arizona St 90, San Diego St 68 - score is concerning, too.  MWC contenders shouldn't be blown out by Pac-12 also-rans....even on the road
Eastern Washington 67, @Stanford 61 - so, that's a terrible loss

interesting results:
Monmouth 80, @Lehigh 72 - ok, maybe Monmouth might still be good
Liberty 79, @Wake Forest 66 - good god, Wake

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

11/13 recap

win of the day:
Minnesota 86, @Providence 74 - our first signature road win?  Road win over a probable tourney team, likely a Tier 1 victory come March.  That's a signature win

wins of note:
Middle Tennessee 72, @Murray St 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Nevada 88, Rhode Island 81 - good matchup of conference favorites.  The home team winning probably means nothing significant to either's resume.  Well, maybe this hurts URI more than you'd think; the A-10 is struggling as a whole so far

catastrophic losses:
Jacksonville St 94, @Richmond 61 - ok, so I think we've established Richmond is not good this year
Montana 83, @Pittsburgh 78 - Pitt probably wasn't going to survive the ACC, but it's always nice to mentally check off a team this early for my purposes
Milwaukee 74, @Iowa St 56

not as hurtful as you think:
@Belmont 69, Vanderbilt 60 - good on Vandy for playing a true road game; this isn't going to hurt them as much as you'd think.  A better SEC will give them chances to rebound, and the committee will forgive the occasional road loss like this

trivial results:
Wichita St pounded CAA favorite Charleston....St Mary's over New Mexico St....USC over NDSU....Notre Dame over Mt St Mary's.  A motley collection of decent-to-good mid-majors go down.  MEAC favorite Morgan St did win on the road at South Florida.  FGCU beat Siena on the road, they might be semi-good.  Old Dominion beat James Madison on the road.  One of the MAC favorites, Western Michigan, lost on the road at South Carolina.  Wyoming beat Oregon St, whoop-de-doo.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

11/12 recap

Get used to the slower pace of the blog updates, at least for the first couple months.

@Kentucky 73, Vermont 69 - if nothing else, it helps cement Vermont's status on the 13 line assuming they eventually get through the A-East
@Washington St 86, Texas Southern 84 (OT) - everyone's favorite SWAC team showing well
@Arkansas 101, Bucknell 73 - along the same veins of mid-major stars, Bucknell hasn't shown as well through two games so far

lol of the day:  Le Tourneau 99, @Northwestern St 84

...not much else on this day.  Plenty of name teams played, they all had service holds at home over relative cupcakes.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

11/11 recap

Notre Dame 72, @DePaul 58 - only notable in that it goes down as a true road win

terrible non D-1 loss of the day:  Ouachita Baptist 81, @Little Rock 79

...there's not a lot going on here today.  Most teams played yesterday, so you're not going to find any results of impact.  FGCU beats Illinois St at home...that's what, the 2nd most impactful score of the day?  Pass.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

11/10 recap

Thus begins the daily recaps on the blog.  A quick reminder to what we do with these:

1) We don't bother mentioning cupcake wins, unless they're notable for some reason.  Duke beating East Bumfuck St isn't notable enough for me to waste the time during typing these things.
2) We pay much more attention to bubble teams and try to feature wins that will matter in March.
3) Remember home wins are diminished and road wins are gold.
4) When the time is appropriate, we'll pay attention to all conference races.
5) During these first couple months, these recaps are all about identifying which teams matter and which don't.

So with that, notable Day 1 results.

Catastrophic loss of the day:  Niagara 77, @St Bonaventure 75 - that's going to look pretty terrible for a probable bubble team in March

lolwat score of the day:  Indiana St 90, @Indiana 69 - wat

Impact results:
UCLA 63, Georgia Tech 60 - neutral site wins have some value
Georgia Southern 85, @Wake Forest 83 - could be catastrohpic, but Wake will have chances to recover
Texas A&M 88, West Virginia 65 - both are likely tourney teams, so eventually this result will be minimized by other key results, but still.  Big positive sign for the SEC on day 1
@Missouri 74, Iowa St 59 - again, SEC just winning these games is a big deal


Interesting results:
Delaware 76, @Richmond 63 - another building block for the Colonial's conference RPI, which has been really good in previous years
@North Carolina 86, Northern Iowa 69 - perhaps interesting to those who assume UNI is at their strength of previous years; they're not
@Navy 71, Pittsburgh 62 - not quite as bad as you'd think since this was a true road game for Pitt
Lamar 74, @Tulsa 67 - on the one hand, Lamar is the rare competent Southland team and Tulsa is bad.  On the other hand...it's the Southland, for cripes' sake
@Alabama 72, Memphis 70
UC Riverside 74, California 66
@Monmouth 79, Bucknell 78 - Bucknell is supposed to be an elite mid-major this year...this is a very harmful loss for at-large chances, which might've existed coming into the year

Thursday, November 9, 2017

11/10 S-CURVE

Maybe I'll do a bracket, but this S-Curve should suffice.  Some tweaks made from the offseason bracket.

Quick conference-by-conference thoughts.

ACC - I have them with 8 teams....seems about right.  I don't see potential to max out to double-digit teams this year, but the conference has a high floor.  Plenty of quality win chances to go around.
B1G - I see a beefy middle of the conference, I expect the top 7-8 teams to be solid in the non-con and build up good resumes.  This leads to plenty of quality win chances for bubble teams in March.
Big 12 - The round-robin schedule hurts this conference just a little bit, as I see the bottom few teams dragging down the league.  They should get their usual number of bids.
SEC - The big story to me last year was the work this conference did OOC.  Much better SoS numbers across the board, and now the talent on the teams are starting to catch up.  Not sure if a 3rd team behind UK and UF can rise very high in the S-Curve, but this might be the year they get back to 5 or 6 teams in the NCAAs.
Pac-12 - Ew.
Big East - They've got some problems establishing a second big-time program behind Nova....it's slowly catching up to them in seeding.
AAC - Very curious to see their seeds in March.  They've been disrespected in previous years, now we'll see how much Wichita changes the math.  I've seeded them conservatively for now, because I'm not completely sold the AAC hate will go away yet.


The 1 line:  Duke, Kansas, Arizona, Villanova
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida
The 3 line:  Notre Dame, West Virginia, USC, Wichita St
The 4 line:  Xavier, Purdue, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
The 5 line:  Northwestern, Minnesota, Miami, Louisville
The 6 line:  Baylor, Seton Hall, UCLA, St Mary's
The 7 line:  Texas, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Rhode Island
The 8 line:  Oregon, Alabama, TCU, Providence
The 9 line:  Florida St, Missouri, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 10 line:  Creighton, Nevada, Michigan, Stanford
The 11 line:  Texas A&M, Maryland, Arkansas, Central Florida, Butler, Virginia
The 12 line:  Northern Iowa, Oakland, Texas-Arlington, Charleston
The 13 line:  Middle Tennessee, Bucknell, Vermont, Western Michigan
The 14 line:  Iona, Harvard, New Mexico St, Murray St
The 15 line:  FGCU, South Dakota St, Long Beach St, Furman
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville, Idaho, St Francis(PA), Stephen F Austin, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Michigan
Stanford
Texas A&M
Maryland

Last 4 in:
Arkansas
Central Florida
Butler
Virginia

Last 4 out:
SMU
San Diego St
VCU
Vanderbilt

Next 4 out:
UConn
Iowa
Boise St
Wake Forest

Break it down!
ACC 8
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
SEC 6
Pac-12 5
AAC 3
A-10 2
WCC 2