Sunday, January 31, 2016

1/31 recap

B1G:
@Iowa 85, Northwestern 71
Maryland 66, @Ohio St 61
@Michigan St 96, Rutgers 62
Wisconsin 63, @Illinois 55

ACC:
@Pittsburgh 90, Virginia Tech 71

Pac-12:
Oregon 91, @Arizona St 74
@Colorado 70, California 62

Big East:
@Villanova 68, St John's 53
@Notre Dame 85, Wake Forest 62

A-10:
George Washington 76, @George Mason 70
@St Bonaventure 84, Richmond 68

AAC:
Temple 70, @South Florida 63
UConn 67, @Central Florida 41

MVC:
Wichita St 78, @Evansville 65 - endgame for UE's chances in march
@Northern Iowa 67, Southern Illinois 58

Saturday, January 30, 2016

1/30 recap

Big 12/SEC challenge thingy:
Oklahoma 77, @LSU 75 - this doesn't hurt LSU, but they're not even on the bubble.  They needed a win to erase their sins and didn't get it
@Kansas 90, Kentucky 84 (OT) - this game will do very little to impact either's seed
@Texas A&M 72, Iowa St 62 - people are finally taking A&M on the 2 line seriously
@Florida 88, West Virginia 71 - Florida had a signature win problem.  They fixed it.  Seeding WVU is going to be tricky, because I've always thought the polls were a bit ahead of their actual value
@Baylor 83, Georgia 73 - probably Georgia's last chance to have a bubble impact this year
@Texas 72, Vanderbilt 58 - see the Georgia comment for Vandy.  Kinda important hold for Texas
@Kansas St 69, Ole Miss 64
@TCU 75, Tennessee 63
@Arkansas 75, Texas Tech 68 (OT) - bracketologists, we're smart, right?  We know what we're doing.  SO STOP PUTTING TTU IN ALL YOUR GODDAMN BRACKETS YOU FUCKING MORONS
Oklahoma St 74, @Auburn 63 - Big 12 won the challenge, and the SEC even got to bench Mizzou and MSU. 

A-10:
@Dayton 59, LaSalle 44
Duquesne 78, @St Louis 67
@St Joseph's 64, Rhode Island 55 - St Joe's is a weird resume to analyze

ACC:
@North Carolina 89, Boston College 62
Virginia 63, @Louisville 47 - UVa with a big signature road win, and are still fighting for the 2 line, at least.  Pretty damaging for UL if they want a protected seed
@NC State 85, Miami 69 - and speaking of damaging, this will likely cost Miami a seed line (given the heavy competition on the 3 and 4 lines)
@Syracuse 60, Georgia Tech 57 - it's looking like Syracuse is in the bubble talk for the long-term
@Florida St 76, Clemson 65 - see, Clemson, this is the problem.  Win at home all you want, but you need something, anything on the road.  You don't need a lot, just a couple.  Like this game.  And you can't get it

AAC:
@SMU 80, Memphis 68
Houston 97, @East Carolina 93 (2OT) - Houston is doing the bare minimum to stay relevant
@Tulsa 62, Tulane 48

Big East:
Xavier 86, @DePaul 65
Providence 73, @Georgetown 69 - I can't imagine GU being a player down the stretch; too many body blows absorbed
@Marquette 75, Butler 69 - ok, now I'm worried about Butler
Seton Hall 75, @Creighton 65 - a very important win.  SHU gets a decent road win to solidify their bubble.  Meanwhile, Creighton is close to critical mass

B1G:
@Indiana 74, Minnesota 68
@Purdue 89, Nebraska 74
Michigan 79, @Penn St 72

CAA:  Hofstra and UNC-W move to 8-2, still co-lead

Horizon:
@Valparaiso 97, Youngstown St 68

MAAC:
@Monmouth 73, St Peter's 57

MW:
New Mexico 88, @Boise St 83 - a very damaging loss
San Diego St 67, @UNLV 52 - it's probably SDSU or bust for the league

Pac-12:
@Arizona 80, Oregon St 63
@USC 98, Washington 88 - no harm to Washington here
@Utah 96, Stanford 74 - while it's no harm to Stanford, they need to stop collecting losses in bulk
@UCLA 83, Washington St 50

SEC:
@South Carolina 78, Alabama 64 - South Carolina is the one team that needed the Big 12 challenge the most, to add a quality win.  So naturally, they were left out.  D'oh
Mississippi St 76, @Missouri 62

SoCon:
Chattanooga 63, @Samford 56 - I think we're going to have to address their at-large candidacy soon

Sun Belt:
@Louisiana-Lafayette 90, Texas-Arlington 75 - UTA has reached bubble endgame
@Arkansas-Little Rock 63, Georgia St 53

WCC:
St Mary's 68, @Pacific 65
@Gonzaga 86, San Francisco 48
@BYU 88, Pepperdine 77

12/9 recap

VCU 79, @Davidson 69 - this is a road win that looks good on the resume thanks to the computers, and now VCU is a legitimate at-large threat

Anyway, that's about all the bubble talk I got for ya.

Ohio beat Kent St at home as well, so we might have a new MAC leader on Monday.
Oakland beats Wright St at home, getting them closer to the lead and putting Valpo back in as the projected conference winner for the time being.

And finally, the Ivy League is finally into their Friday/Saturday routine.  Yale/Columbia on 3-0, Princeton on 2-0.

Friday, January 29, 2016

1/28 recap

Pac-12:
@Arizona St 86, Oregon St 68 - road games are a big ask, but this hurts OSU a bit.  Arizona St really needs to follow this up by beating Oregon to have a real chance
Washington 86, @UCLA 84 - a signature road win!  Washington needed something legit on the profile and got it.  UCLA took a hit, though.  Still safe but the scene is crowded
@USC 81, Washington St 71

ACC:
@Syracuse 81, Notre Dame 66 - SU is going to be an annoying case to figure out.  They're plenty alive now

B1G:
@Maryland 74, Iowa 68 - Maryland finally fills a big hole in their resume and justifies a 2 seed for now.  This doesn't hurt Iowa too badly, it's their first loss among all the giants in the B1G, so they're fine
Michigan St 76, @Northwestern 45 - NU is trying really hard to avoid the bubble altogether
Ohio St 68, @Illinois 63

A-10:
Richmond 98, @George Washington 90 (2OT) - a catastrophic loss for GWU

AAC:
Cincinnati 58, @UConn 57 - a signature road win for Cincy that erases some bad in their profile.  A catastrophic loss for UConn.  Probably a zero-sum situation for the conference as a whole

MAAC:
Monmouth 66, @Quinnipiac 51

Horizon:
@Valparaiso 77, Cleveland St 52

Sun Belt:
@Arkansas-Little Rock 80, Georgia Southern 67
@Louisiana-Monroe 99, Texas-Arlington 88 - UTA is just about off the at-large board now

MVC:
Evansville 85, @Southern Illinois 78 (OT) - well, UE is a clear #2 in the MVC and SIU is off the board

WCC:
@Gonzaga 84, Santa Clara 67
@BYU 87, Loyola Marymount 62

elsewhere:
Summit:  South Dakota St beats Omaha at home.  We're now 3-wide with them and IPFW at the top at 6-2
CAA:  After another matchday, it's UNC-W and Hofstra on 7-2, JMU, W&M and Towson on 6-3, Charleston on 5-4, and the best team in Northeastern at 4-5.  What

Thursday, January 28, 2016

1/27 recap

Big 12:
Baylor 69, @Oklahoma St 65

ACC:
Louisville 91, @Virginia Tech 83
@Clemson 73, Pittsburgh 60 - Clemson continues to linger.  They still need something on the road to support their resume.  It doesn't have to be a lot.  Just a little bit.  Because the home resume is astounding
Georgia Tech 90, @NC State 83

Pac-12:
@Colorado 91, Stanford 75 - not a bad loss in a vacuum, but Stanford's starting to accumulate too many losses
@Utah 73, California 64

Big East:
@Butler 67, DePaul 53
@Seton Hall 79, St John's 60

B1G:
Purdue 68, @Minnesota 64
@Michigan 68, Rutgers 57

SEC:
@Arkansas 74, Texas A&M 71 - first hiccup from A&M, on the road.  First one's free, the next one will cost you a seed line
@Kentucky 88, Missouri 54
@Ole Miss 80, Auburn 63

A-10:
@Dayton 73, St Louis 37
@Rhode Island 79, Fordham 63
@St Joseph's 78, UMass 70

MVC:
@Wichita St 80, Loyola(Chi) 54

AAC:
@East Carolina 64, Temple 61 - just in case you thought Temple was relevant this year
@Houston 81, Tulsa 66 - catastrophic loss for Tulsa's at large chances

MWC:
@UNLV 87, Boise St 77 - catastrophic to Boise's at-large chances

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

1/26 recap

Big 12:
@Oklahoma 91, Texas Tech 67
@West Virginia 70, Kansas St 55
@Texas 71, TCU 54

Big East:
Xavier 75, @Providence 68 - X might be back on the one line, Provi probably doesn't lose a seed line but does lose a realistic chance at the 1 or 2 line.  Needed to validate the Nova win and didn't
@Georgetown 74, Creighton 73 - GU trying to stay alive

ACC:
Virginia 72, @Wake Forest 71 - probably officially endgame for WF's hopes
Florida St 72, @Boston College 62

B1G:
@Wisconsin 82, Indiana 79 (OT) - IU is not safe by any means, but this is the first real mulligan they've had to use

SEC:
@South Carolina 84, Mississippi St 74
@Vanderbilt 60, Florida 59 - Vandy's hanging on to hope.  Florida's computer profile is okay but everything else is kinda meh
@LSU 89, Georgia 85 - Georgia's getting close to endgame here
@Alabama 63, Tennessee 57

AAC:
Memphis 97, @Central Florida 86

MWC:
San Diego St 57, @Nevada 54

elsewhere:
MAC:  Akron beats NIU.  Kent now leads alone

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

1/25 recap

@Iowa St 85, Kansas 72 - at some point, Kansas needs to be off everyone's 1 line.  This isn't like the last couple of years where their SoS was #1 with a bullet.  They're borderline 2/3 right now.  So is Iowa St, probably a 2 now
@Miami 80, Duke 69 - this is the one loss that doesn't hurt Duke.  Except for that Duke is now 4th in the ACC pecking order, which matters when it comes to bracketing these teams together.  Big win for Miami
@Ohio St 66, Penn St 46

miscellany:
Davidson 78, @Richmond 70
conference leaders winning:  Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern

Monday, January 25, 2016

1/25 BRACKET

A lot less shenanigans this week with regards to imbalance and regionals.  Things broke pretty well this time.

EAST
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (18-2) vs. 16) Bucknell (9-9)/Mount St Mary's (9-12)
8) South Carolina (16-2) vs. 9) George Washington (15-4)
@Denver
4) Providence (17-3) vs. 13) Chattanooga (15-3)
5) Baylor (14-4) vs. 12) San Diego St (12-6)
@Providence
3) Maryland (17-3) vs. 14) Stony Brook (13-4)
6) Duke (15-5) vs. 11) Gonzaga (14-5)/UCLA (12-8)
@Raleigh
2) West Virginia (16-3) vs. 15) New Mexico St (12-8)
7) Colorado (14-5) vs. 10) UConn (14-5)

WEST
@Des Moines
1) Iowa (16-3) vs. 16) Hampton (11-7)
8) Texas (12-7) vs. 9) Butler (13-6)
@Spokane
4) Oregon (15-4) vs. 13) Belmont (14-6)
5) Louisville (16-3) vs. 12) UC-Irvine (14-5)
@Brooklyn
3) Virginia (15-4) vs. 14) Yale (10-5)
6) Indiana (17-3) vs. 11) Oregon St (11-6)/St Joseph's (16-3)
@St Louis
2) Kansas (15-3) vs. 15) Wright St (11-8)
7) Utah (14-5) vs. 10) Seton Hall (13-6)

MIDWEST
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (17-3) vs. 16) UNC-Asheville (12-7)
8) Pittsburgh (15-3) vs. 9) Florida (13-6)
@Providence
4) Miami (15-3) vs. 13) James Madison (15-5)
5) Purdue (17-4) vs. 12) VCU (15-5)
@Denver
3) Iowa St (15-4) vs. 14) North Florida (14-6)
6) USC (15-5) vs. 11) St Mary's (16-2)
@St Louis
2) Xavier (17-2) vs. 15) Montana (9-7)
7) Michigan (14-5) vs. 10) Valparaiso (15-4)

SOUTH
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (16-2) vs. 16) Houston Baptist (9-7)/Texas Southern (7-11)
8) Notre Dame (14-5) vs. 9) California (14-6)
@Spokane
4) Dayton (16-3) vs. 13) Kent St (13-5)
5) Kentucky (15-4) vs. 12) Tulsa (13-6)
@Des Moines
3) Michigan St (17-4) vs. 14) UAB (16-3)
6) Arizona (16-4) vs. 11) Arkansas-Little Rock (16-2)
@Oklahoma City
2) Texas A&M (17-2) vs. 15) Omaha (12-7)
7) Wichita St (13-5) vs. 10) Monmouth (15-5)

1/25 S-CURVE

AQ shenanigans:
Horizon:  Wright St is your new leader, having beaten Valpo.  Valpo is on the at-large board
MAAC:  Monmouth is back to being the leader, so the MAAC is back to one bid
A-10:  VCU is still leading and is right on the bubble as an at-large
AAC:  Tulsa now has the lead here

The 1 line:  North Carolina (18-2), Oklahoma (16-2), Villanova (17-3), Iowa (16-3)
The 2 line:  Xavier (17-2), Texas A&M (17-2), West Virginia (16-3), Kansas (15-3)
The 3 line:  Virginia (15-4), Michigan St (17-4), Maryland (17-3), Iowa St (15-4)
The 4 line:  Miami (15-3), Oregon (15-4), Providence (17-3), Dayton (16-3)
The 5 line:  Louisville (16-3), Baylor (14-4), Kentucky (15-4), Purdue (17-4)
The 6 line:  USC (15-5), Arizona (16-4), Duke (15-5), Indiana (17-3)
The 7 line:  Wichita St (13-5), Utah (14-5), Michigan (14-5), Colorado (14-5)
The 8 line:  Texas (12-7), South Carolina (16-2), Pittsburgh (15-3), Notre Dame (14-5)
The 9 line:  California (14-6), George Washington (15-4), Florida (13-6), Butler (13-6)
The 10 line:  Valparaiso (15-4), UConn (14-5), Monmouth (15-5), Seton Hall (13-6)
The 11 line:  St Mary's (16-2), Gonzaga (14-5), Oregon St (11-6), Arkansas-Little Rock (16-2), UCLA (12-8), St Joseph's (16-3)
The 12 line:  VCU (15-5), San Diego St (12-6), Tulsa (13-6), UC-Irvine (14-5)
The 13 line:  Chattanooga (15-3), James Madison (15-5), Kent St (13-5), Belmont (14-6)
The 14 line:  Stony Brook (13-4), Yale (10-5), UAB (16-3), North Florida (14-6)
The 15 line:  Omaha (12-7), Wright St (11-8), Montana (9-7), New Mexico St (12-8)
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville (12-7), Hampton (11-7), Bucknell (9-9), Houston Baptist (9-7), Mount St Mary's (9-12), Texas Southern (7-11)

Next 4 in:
Florida
Butler
Valparaiso***
UConn
Monmouth***
Seton Hall

Last 4 in:
St Mary's***
Gonzaga
Oregon St
Arkansas-Little Rock***
UCLA
St Joseph's

Last 4 out:
VCU***
Cincinnati (15-6)
Clemson (12-7)
Florida St (12-7)
San Diego St***
Stanford (10-7)

Next 4 out:
Washington (13-6)
Texas Tech (12-6)
Syracuse (13-8)
Tulsa***
Temple (11-7)

The consideration board:
Georgetown (12-8)
Vanderbilt (11-8)
Texas-Arlington (13-4)
Ohio St (12-8)
Arizona St (11-9)
LSU (12-7)
UC-Irvine***
Kansas St (12-7)
Boise St (13-5)

The NIT bubble:
Evansville (16-4)
LSU (12-7)
BYU (13-7)
Creighton (14-6)
Virginia Tech (12-8)
Georgia (11-6)

Break it down!
Pac-12 8
ACC 7
B1G 6
Big 12 6
Big East 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
American 2
WCC 2
Horizon 2

Sunday, January 24, 2016

1/24 recap

ACC:
North Carolina 75, @Virginia Tech 70
@Virginia 73, Syracuse 65

Big East:
Providence 82, @Villanova 76 (OT) - a signature road win!  Big for Provi's seed and for Nova too
Marquette 78, @St John's 73

Pac-12:
@Oregon St 85, USC 70 - critical for OSU to keep pace on the bubble.  This dings USC a seed line maybe, but there's a lot of these games USC will have in the future
Utah 80, @Washington 75 (OT) - UW had a luxury of being listed in brackets as a conference leader, but it's gone now and they're probably 10th in the Pac-12 pecking order

Big 12:
@Iowa 83, Purdue 71 - Iowa is really close to the 1 line right now

A-10:
@VCU 84, St Bonaventure 76
Dayton 64, @Fordham 50
St Joseph's 69, @LaSalle 48

AAC:
@Temple 89, SMU 80
@Cincinnati 97, Tulane 75
East Carolina 84, @Memphis 83 - just in case you thought Memphis was creeping on the bubble
@Tulsa 75, Central Florida 60

Horizon:
Valparaiso 71, @Northern Kentucky 46

MAAC:
@Monmouth 83, Marist 72

MVC:
@Indiana St 82, Evansville 65
Southern Illinois 80, @Missouri St 65

Colonial:  let's just review the standings after every game:  JMU, UNC-W, Hofstra on joint 6-2 leading

1/23 recap

Big 12:
Oklahoma 82, @Baylor 72 - a quality road win for OU, and this does matter when it comes to the 1 line now
@Kansas 76, Texas 67
West Virginia 80, @Texas Tech 76 - WHY ARE PEOPLE STILL PUTTING TEXAS TECH IN THEIR BRACKETS STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT
Iowa St 73, @TCU 60
@Kansas St 89, Oklahoma St 73

Pac-12:
@California 74, Arizona 73 - Arizona is pretty clearly behind Oregon and USC now, not sure what others are seeing.  This also keeps Cal a little bit ahead of the bubble
@Oregon 86, UCLA 72 - while this doesn't hurt UCLA, they're starting to compile some losses in quantity...will put pressure on them for the next month or so to win all the must-win games
Colorado 75, @Washington St 70
@Stanford 75, Arizona St 73 - and ASU is probably done

ACC:
@Miami 77, Wake Forest 63
Louisville 75, @Georgia Tech 71 - WF and GT are done here
Duke 88, @NC State 78
@Notre Dame 76, Boston College 49
Pittsburgh 74, @Florida St 72 - a very important road win for Pitt to stabilize the seed, and a devastating loss for the FSU resume

Big East:
@Xavier 84, Seton Hall 76
@Creighton 72, Butler 64 - Creighton is kind of becoming an annoyance - 5-2 in conference.  They're creeping up on the back end of the bubble.  Butler isn't there yet, but 2-5 in conference is untenable

B1G:
@Michigan St 74, Maryland 65 - MSU finally stops the bleeding; I have them settling on the 4 line.  Maryland, this doesn't hurt them too badly, unless you want a 1 seed, in which case it kinda really does hurt
@Indiana 89, Northwestern 57 - NU can't lose games like this and hang on to the back end of the bubble
Michigan 81, @Nebraska 68
Illinois 76, @Minnesota 71 (OT)

SEC:
@Texas A&M 66, Missouri 53
@Kentucky 76, Vanderbilt 57 - no real harm in losing this, but this was Vandy's big chance to erase some earlier sins
@Tennessee 78, South Carolina 69 - USC is not safe, folks
LSU 72, @Alabama 70 - well, it's not a bad road win.  LSU is plenty alive now
@Mississippi St 83, Ole Miss 77 - probably the end for Ole Miss
@Georgia 76, Arkansas 73 (OT)
@Florida 95, Auburn 63

MVC:
@Wichita St 88, Bradley 54

WCC:
Gonzaga 71, @Pacific 61
@Pepperdine 71, BYU 65
@St Mary's 89, Portland 74

MWC:
Boise St 81, @Wyoming 71
@San Diego St 70, Utah St 55 - at this time, all BSU and SDSU can do is win all these games...

Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 68, @Texas-Arlington 62 - well, UALR's at large hopes are well alive now, and UTA is on the brink

non-con:
@UConn 68, Georgetown 62 - a pretty important hold for UConn, and a pretty big blow for GU

Saturday, January 23, 2016

1/22 recap

@George Washington 62, Rhode Island 58 - hold serve
@Wright St 73, Valparaiso 62 - oh no.  Well, let's look at this. WSU is probably Horizon #2, so this was the toughest game of the conference season for Valpo.  Losing 1 game in conference play isn't bad at all, so this is Valpo's mulligan

notables:
Stony Brook > Albany and have established as a clear #1 in A-East
NIU won again in the MAC and inexplicably has the lead
Iona > St Peter's, so that bracket intrusion by Pete yesterday was short-lived

Friday, January 22, 2016

1/22 S-CURVE

AQ shenanigans:
West Coast:  St Mary's takes the outright lead and should occupy that spot for awhile over Gonzaga
A-10:  VCU still leads while being on the edge of the bubble
Pac-12:  Washington's still there
Summit:  South Dakota St probably isn't on the bubble, and is trailing IPFW still
MAAC:  St Peter's to the lead here, and Monmouth back on the at-large board
AAC:  Central Florida is now your leader.  Oy vey
Sun Belt:  UALR has the spot over UTA for now

procedural bumps:
St Mary's from the 11 line to the 10 line
UCLA from the 10 line to the 11 line *these moves accomodate UCLA having to play in the First Four and St Mary's not

The 1 line:  Villanova (17-2), North Carolina (17-2), Oklahoma (15-2), Xavier (16-2)
The 2 line:  Iowa (15-3), Texas A&M (16-2), Kansas (14-3), Maryland (17-2)
The 3 line:  West Virginia (15-3), Virginia (14-4), Iowa St (14-4), Miami (14-3)
The 4 line:  Oregon (14-4), Dayton (15-3), Michigan St (16-4), Purdue (17-3)
The 5 line:  USC (15-4), Louisville (15-3), Arizona (16-3), Baylor (14-3)
The 6 line:  Providence (16-3), Kentucky (14-4), Indiana (16-3), South Carolina (16-1)
The 7 line:  Wichita St (12-5), Duke (14-5), Butler (13-5), Utah (13-5)
The 8 line:  Texas (12-6), Michigan (13-5), Colorado (13-5), Valparaiso (14-3)
The 9 line:  Pittsburgh (14-3), Notre Dame (13-5), George Washington (14-4), Florida (12-6)
The 10 line:  Monmouth (14-5), California (13-6), Seton Hall (13-5), St Mary's (15-2)
The 11 line:  UCLA (12-7), Gonzaga (13-5), St Joseph's (15-3), UConn (13-5), Washington (13-5), VCU (14-5)
The 12 line:  Arkansas-Little Rock (14-2), San Diego St (11-6), Chattanooga (15-3), UC-Irvine (14-5)
The 13 line:  IPFW (14-5), James Madison (14-5), Kent St (12-5), UAB (15-3)
The 14 line:  Princeton (10-4), Stony Brook (12-4), Belmont (13-6), North Florida (13-6)
The 15 line:  Central Florida (10-6), Weber St (10-5), Cal St-Bakersfield (11-5), High Point (10-6)
The 16 line:  Hampton (10-7), Houston Baptist (8-7), St Peter's (8-8), Wagner (11-6), Bucknell (8-9), Texas Southern (6-11)

Next 4 in:
Florida
Monmouth
California
Seton Hall

Last 4 in:
UCLA
St Mary's**
Gonzaga
St Joseph's
UConn

Last 4 out:
Cincinnati
Washington**
Oregon St
Texas-Arlington
VCU**
Arkansas-Little Rock**
Clemson

Next 4 out:
Syracuse
Florida St
Texas Tech
Georgetown

1/21 recap

B1G:
Iowa 90, @Rutgers 76
@Purdue 75, Ohio St 64
Wisconsin 66, @Penn St 60

Pac-12:
Arizona 71, @Stanford 57 - Stanford is slowly starting to approach the bottom part of the bubble race.  Home against ASU coming up might be mandatory
@Oregon 89, USC 81 - expected result; I think the Pac-12 pecking order is Oregon/Arizona/USC for the time being, but it'll change
@California 75, Arizona St 70 - the Pac-12 race is an 11-team race, but Arizona St is about to lose the draft, so to speak
Utah 92, @Washington St 71

SEC:
Kentucky 80, @Arkansas 66

AAC:
@Cincinnati 76, Memphis 72

Sun Belt:
@UT-Arlington 91, Arkansas St 64
Arkansas-Little Rock 77, Texas St 74 (OT)

WCC:
BYU 91, @Loyola Marymount 80
@St Mary's 70, Gonzaga 67 - okay, St Mary's!  We got ourselves a good win and now we can really talk at-large.  Speaking of talking bubble, hi Gonzaga!

catastrophic loss of the day:
@Manhattan 78, Monmouth 71 - Monmouth had a mulligan or two left....and used one up here.  Not much margin of error left.  I'm nervous, because their 6-2 MAAC record extrapolates to 15-5 and 24-8 overall...I don't like their chances at 24-8

CAAWatch!:   JMU and UNC-W take out bottom-feeders.  W&M > Elon.  Those 3 winners are on 5-2.  Hofstra joins them by beating Northeastern.  The team with the best overall resume, Northeastern, is now 4-3 and 5th place.


miscellaneous winners:  Chattanooga, South Dakota St

Thursday, January 21, 2016

1/20 recap

ACC:
@North Carolina 83, Wake Forest 68
Miami 67, @Boston College 53
@Louisville 84, Florida St 65
@Notre Dame 83, Virginia Tech 81

Big East:
Villanova 72, @Seton Hall 71
DePaul 57, @Marquette 56 - just in case you thought MU was lingering on the bubble

Big 12:
Texas 56, @West Virginia 49 - an ugly ugly loss for a team that's trying to get a 2 seed or even a 1.  Texas is in better shape than most people think
@Baylor 79, Kansas St 72 (2OT)

B1G:
Nebraska 72, @Michigan St 71 - what?
@Michigan 74, Minnesota 69

SEC:
Georgia 60, @Missouri 57
Vanderbilt 88, @Tennessee 74

A-10:
@VCU 93, Duquesne 71
@St Louis 96, Davidson 87 - that might be it for Davidson's realistic at-large hopes

MVC:
@Southern Illinois 79, Indiana St 66
Wichita St 74, @Northern Iowa 55

MWC:
@Boise St 94, San Jose St 69

Pac-12:
@Washington 95, Colorado 83
UCLA 82, @Oregon St 73 - OSU starting to get into just a little bit of trouble here

non-con:
Temple 62, LaSalle 49
St Joseph's 75, Penn 60

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

1/19 recap

Big 12:
@Oklahoma St 86, Kansas 67 - Kansas is off the 1 line.  Remember, everyone, their overall profile is not as strong as it has been in previous years.  A clear loss in a situation like this is punishable via a seed line.  As for Oklahoma St, they still have a lot of work to do to, but this at least gets them back on the radar for the time being

Big East:
Georgetown 81, @Xavier 72 - speaking of falling off the 1 line, you just have to hold at home in these situations if you're Xavier.  There's no other way to put it.  Georgetown is another team that was off the bubble and now is within shouting distance, but they need more than this
@Providence 71, Butler 68 - Butler is a clear #4 and Provi is a clear #3 in this conference.  Solvent

B1G:
@Maryland 62, Northwestern 56 (OT) - a golden chance goes begging for NU.  They're going to have to get one or two like this somewhere down the road to have a chance
@Indiana 103, Illinois 69

ACC:
@Virginia 69, Clemson 62 - this doesn't hurt Clemson one bit; three signature wins in a row are enough if - IF - they follow it through with road wins over teams they're supposed to beat.  Virginia ain't one of them
NC State 78, @Pittsburgh 61 - an absolutely pathetic loss by Pitt that will be worth multiple seed lines

SEC:
@Texas A&M 71, LSU 57 - this doesn't really hurt LSU since this is the toughest SEC game on the board and they have other wins, but it just reduces margin of error elsewhere
South Carolina 77, @Ole Miss 74 - this really hurts Ole Miss who needs computer profile help; and USC solidifies their position a bit
@Florida 81, Mississippi St 78
@Auburn 83, Alabama 77 - Bama doesn't have a half-bad profile but can't stop hurting themselves

A-10:
Dayton 85, @St Bonaventure 79 - you're sensing a theme today - fringe bubble teams who couldn't quite play their way into legit bubble talk.  St Bonaventure is one of 'em

AAC:
@SMU 77, Houston 73 - Houston desperately needs profile help, and they let their one big break get away
@UConn 60, Tulane 42 - all UConn can do is beat these cupcakes for now
Tulsa 84, @East Carolina 69 - every road win counts

elsewhere:
MWC:  San Diego St beats Fresno at home, still not completely dead from bubble talk
MVC:  Evansville keeps winning...
MAC:  NIU wins and still leads there

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

1/18 recap

Big 12:
@Iowa St 82, Oklahoma 77 - well that should help erase a couple of sins from ISU recently
Texas Tech 76, @TCU 69 - well hey, at least they beat the one team they're supposed to

ACC:
Syracuse 64, @Duke 62 - this is taken a catastrophic turn.  Duke is plenty safe, but these aren't games you can drop and maintain a protected seed.  Syracuse still has a pulse

B1G:
Purdue 107, @Rutgers 57

MAAC:
@Monmouth 85, Siena 69

Horizon:
Valparaiso 96, @Youngstown St 65

Sun Belt:
@Arkansas St 76, Arkansas-Little Rock 73 - oh no

Monday, January 18, 2016

1/18 BRACKET

I've written about this a few times, but this is going to be a legitimate problem for the NCAA:  balance. 

In the top 16, I have 4 Big 12 schools, 4 ACC schools, and 4 B1G schools.  By rule, for each conference, the top 4 teams in the top 16 overall must be in different regions.  You can see the bracketing problem here.  In addition, I have only one west coast school (Oregon) in the top 16.  It is simply impossible to bracket these teams fairly as a result.  You have to following the 4 from 1 in 4 regions rule above all else, and this means the brackets will be unequal.

I added up the overall seed of the top 4 teams in each region below:
East 29
Midwest 33
South 36
West 38

If you need context for these numbers, the east would be historically difficult and the west would be historically easy.  However, every attempt I made to fix the inequality in each region ended up violating the 4 from 1 in 4 rule I mentioned above.  This is as balanced as it can get without massively screwing over a conference.

In addition, individual teams get screwed:  Xavier, West Virginia, Purdue, and Duke in the west, and Oregon doesn't even get to play in the west.  And there's more on the sub-regional level.  The entire 4 line is filled with teams forced to go to Denver or Spokane.  It's a mess, and the NCAA will have to face one of two realities:  either ignore geography and piss off fans in order to maintain fairness in the seedings, or ignore overall seedings and create a heavily biased bracket in order to make as many fans as possible happy.

And this is all assuming the play-in games stay on the 11 line.  If they drop to the 12 line, that's a massive problem in itself.

SOUTH
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (15-1) vs. 16) Houston Baptist (7-7)/Texas Southern (5-11)
8) Colorado (13-4) vs. 9) Florida (11-6)
@Spokane
4) Oregon (13-4) vs. 13) UC-Irvine (13-5)
5) Kentucky (13-4) vs. 12) VCU (13-5)
@Providence
3) Virginia (13-4) vs. 14) Northern Illinois (10-3)
6) Butler (13-4) vs. 11) Arkansas-Little Rock (13-1)
@Brooklyn
2) Maryland (16-2) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (11-6)
7) Utah (12-5) vs. 10) Seton Hall (13-4)

WEST
@St Louis
1) Xavier (16-1) vs. 16) Cal St-Bakersfield (10-5)
8) Wichita St (11-5) vs. 9) Valparaiso (13-3)
@Denver
4) Purdue (15-3) vs. 13) James Madison (13-5)
5) USC (15-3) vs. 12) San Diego St (10-6)
@Providence
3) Duke (14-4) vs. 14) Stony Brook (11-4)
6) Arizona (15-3) vs. 11) St Mary's (14-2)
@Raleigh
2) West Virginia (15-2) vs. 15) Belmont (12-6)
7) Indiana (15-3) vs. 10) Oregon St (10-5)

MIDWEST
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (14-2) vs. 16) Bucknell (7-9)/Mount St Mary's 8-11)
8) Michigan (12-5) vs. 9) Monmouth (13-4)
@Spokane
4) Miami (13-3) vs. 13) Princeton (10-4)
5) Dayton (14-3) vs. 12) Chattanooga (14-3)
@Oklahoma City
3) Texas A&M (15-2) vs. 14) UAB (14-3)
6) Pittsburgh (14-2) vs. 11) UCLA (11-7)/Gonzaga (13-4)
@Des Moines
2) Iowa (14-3) vs. 15) Montana (8-6)
7) Baylor (13-3) vs. 10) California (12-6)

EAST
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (16-2) vs. 16) Hampton (9-7)
8) Notre Dame (12-5) vs. 9) George Washington (14-4)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (13-4) vs. 13) IPFW (13-5)
5) Louisville (14-3) vs. 12) Washington (12-5)
@St Louis
3) Michigan St (16-3) vs. 14) Memphis (12-5)
6) Providence (15-3) vs. 11) St Joseph's (14-3)/Clemson (12-6)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (16-2) vs. 15) North Florida (12-6)
7) South Carolina (15-1) vs. 10) Texas (11-6)



1/18 S-CURVE

AQ shenanigans:
West Coast:  St Mary's has the autobid, not Gonzaga
Sun Belt:  UALR has the autobid over UT-Arlington
Pac-12:  Washington still has the autobid for now
MAAC:  Monmouth has taken the lead and the MAAC is back to 1 bid
A-10:  VCU has the autobid now

The 1 line:  Oklahoma (15-1), Villanova (16-2), Kansas (14-2), Xavier (16-1)
The 2 line:  North Carolina (16-2), Iowa (14-3), West Virginia (15-2), Maryland (16-2)
The 3 line:  Michigan St (16-3), Texas A&M (15-2), Virginia (13-4), Duke (14-4)
The 4 line:  Iowa St (13-4), Miami (13-3), Purdue (15-3), Oregon (13-4)
The 5 line:  USC (15-3), Louisville (14-3), Dayton (14-3), Kentucky (13-4)
The 6 line:  Providence (15-3), Arizona (15-3), Pittsburgh (14-2), Butler (13-4)
The 7 line:  Indiana (15-3), Baylor (13-3), South Carolina (15-1), Utah (12-5)
The 8 line:  Colorado (13-4), Michigan (12-5), Wichita St (11-5), Notre Dame (12-5)
The 9 line:  Monmouth (13-4), George Washington (14-4), Florida (11-6), Valparaiso (13-3)
The 10 line:  Texas (11-6), Seton Hall (13-4), California (12-6), Oregon St (10-5)
The 11 line:  Gonzaga (13-4), UCLA (11-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (13-1), St Joseph's (14-3), Clemson (12-6), St Mary's (14-2)
The 12 line:  Washington (12-5), VCU (13-5), San Diego St (10-6), Chattanooga (14-3)
The 13 line:  James Madison (13-5), IPFW (13-5), UC-Irvine (13-5), Princeton (10-4)
The 14 line:  UAB (14-3), Stony Brook (11-4), Memphis (12-5), Northern Illinois (10-3)
The 15 line:  Belmont (12-6), North Florida (12-6), Montana (8-6), UNC-Asheville (11-6)
The 16 line:  Cal St-Bakersfield (10-5), Hampton (9-7), Bucknell (7-9), Houston Baptist (7-7), Mount St Mary's (8-11), Texas Southern (5-11)

Next 4 in:
Texas
Seton Hall
California
Oregon St

Last 4 in:
Gonzaga
UCLA
Arkansas-Little Rock*
St Joseph's
Clemson

Last 4 out:
Cincinnati (13-6)
UConn (12-5)
St Mary's*
Texas Tech (11-5)
Washington*
Texas-Arlington (12-3)

Next 4 out:
Alabama (10-6)
Davidson (10-5)
VCU*
Stanford (9-6)
Arizona St (11-7)

Break it down!:
Pac-12 9
ACC 8
Big 12 6
B1G 6
Big East 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
WCC 2

way-too early NIT projections:
The 1 line:  Cincinnati (13-6), UConn (12-5), Texas Tech (11-5), Texas-Arlington (12-3)
The 2 line:  Alabama (10-6), Davidson (10-5), Stanford (9-6), Arizona St (11-7)
The 3 line:  Ohio St (12-7), Wake Forest (10-7), Tulsa (11-6), Florida St (12-5)
The 4 line:  BYU (12-6), Ole Miss (12-5), St Bonaventure (12-4), Vanderbilt (10-7)
The 5 line:  LSU (11-6), Syracuse (12-7), Boise St (11-5), Georgia Tech (11-7)
The 6 line:  Marquette (12-6), South Dakota St (12-5), Georgia (9-6), Northwestern (15-4)
The 7 line:  William & Mary (10-5), Tennessee (9-8), Kansas St (11-6), Middle Tennessee (10-5)
The 8 line:  Evansville (15-3), Houston (13-4), Hawaii (13-2), Creighton (13-6)

Best available for the Vegas 16/CBI:
Virginia Tech (12-6), Georgetown (11-7), Auburn (8-8), Arkansas (9-8), Penn St (11-8), Wisconsin (10-9), Nebraska (11-8), Rhode Island (11-7), Richmond (10-7), Temple (9-7)

Best available for the CIT:
Northeastern (11-7), Hofstra (11-6), UNC-Wilmington (10-5), Omaha (10-7), Fresno St (10-6), New Mexico (10-8), UNLV (9-8), Utah St (9-6), Akron (12-4), Kent St (11-5), Ohio (9-6), Southern Illinois (16-3), Northern Iowa (9-9), Pepperdine (10-7), Yale (9-5), Oakland (11-7), Green Bay (9-7), Mercer (12-4), Iona (9-8), Siena (11-6), Louisiana Tech (11-5), Marshall (9-9), Albany (13-5), Navy (13-5), Grand Canyon (15-2), Weber St (10-5), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11-3)

1/17 recap

Pac-12:
@Colorado 91, Oregon 87 - home team wins, so it's status quo.  Well, Oregon gets dinged a bit because I thought they were above the bubble fray (and still are)
@Utah 59, Oregon St 53

B1G:
@Wisconsin 77, Michigan St 76 - a catastrophic loss for MSU.  What are they doing?
@Iowa 82, Michigan 71 - Iowa is now the top seed in the B1G.  Wait, what?

AAC:
@Florida St 69, Virginia 62 - there's a real pattern of UVa failing on the road emerging.  They are losing multiple seeding lines now

Big East:
Creighton 91, @DePaul 80

AAC:
SMU 60, @Tulane 45
UConn 69, @Houston 57 - Houston, if you were real, you had to win that one

MVC:
@Wichita St 82, Indiana St 62

Saturday, January 16, 2016

1/16 recap

Big 12:
@Kansas 70, TCU 63
@Oklahoma 70, West Virginia 68 - status quo for everyone here
Iowa St 76, @Kansas St 63
Baylor 63, @Texas Tech 60 - remember when everyone but me pegged TTU as a tournament team?  Good times
@Texas 74, Oklahoma St 69

Big East:
Villanova 55, @Georgetown 50
Xavier 74, @Marquette 66 - a couple of home teams with golden signature win chances by the boards
Seton Hall 81, @Providence 72 - Provi is now clearly a step behind the top 2 in this conference, but on the other hand, SHU is a solid #5
@Butler 78, St John's 58

Pac-12:
@Arizona 90, Washington St 66
Washington 89, @Arizona St 85 - with 742 bubble teams in this conference, road wins like this matter more than you think

ACC:
@North Carolina 67, North Carolina St 55
@Clemson 76, Miami 65 - sloppy loss, resume-wise for Miami.  Clemson encroaching on the fringes of the bubble, legitimately now
Notre Dame 95, @Duke 91 - signature road wins matter
@Pittsburgh 84, Boston College 61
Virginia Tech 78, @Georgia Tech 77 - close to fatal for GT.  VT, um, not sure what's going on here
Syracuse 83, @Wake Forest 55 - Syracuse plays it way off the bubble, then rallies just in time to take Wake off the bubble too.  Neat

B1G:
@Maryland 100, Ohio St 65 - the eye test does not help here
Indiana 70, @Minnesota 63
Nebraska 78, @Illinois 67
Penn St 71, @Northwestern 62 - ugh, exactly the type of terrible loss that kills at-large momentum

SEC:
@Auburn 75, Kentucky 70 - oy, this conference
Texas A&M 79, @Georgia 45 - and A&M is going to have to run away with this conference to get a high seed
@South Carolina 81, Missouri 72
Tennessee 80, @Mississippi St 75
@Vanderbilt 71, Alabama 63
Florida 80, @Ole Miss 71 - a very good look for Florida, but not one for Ole Miss.  There's a pretty nice top 3 forming (USC/A&M/UK) and maybe Florida as a #4, but the picture's getting blurry after that
@LSU 76, Arkansas 74 - the rally ain't dead yet

A-10:
@Davidson 86, UMass 74
@St Joseph's 80, Fordham 55
VCU 94, @Richmond 89 (OT)
@Rhode Island 73, LaSalle 62 - optimal results this day in the A-10
@Duquesne 95, St Bonaventure 88 - well, except this one, Dukes really aren't quite in it yet

AAC:
@Memphis 71, South Florida 56
@Temple 67, Cincinnati 65 (2OT) - oh no

WCC:
@Gonzaga 88, San Diego 52
@Portland 84, BYU 81 - the WCC is in all sorts of trouble here now

MVC:
Loyola(Chi) 51, @Northern Iowa 41 - tire fire alert!

Sun Belt:
@South Alabama 88, Texas-Arlington 85 (OT) - and the first real mistake from UTA

Horizon:
@Valparaiso 85, Green Bay 70

MWC:
San Diego St 56, @Boise St 53 - in the battle of the only 2 teams with a sniff of the bubble, the worse team wins on the road.  Good job good effort, Mountain West

notables:
CAA:  Northeastern won...top of the conference is still crowded.  JMU beats Hofstra on the road
Summit:  IPFW beats Omaha on the road.  And the opening is squandered for South Dakota St as NDSU beats them.  IPFW and Omaha joint lead
Sun Belt:  Georgia St lost at home, so they're slowly clearing the stage for the other two, at least
MWC:  elsewhere, Wyoming beats UNM on the road, Utah St beats Colorado St on the road, and who knows what's going on here
SoCon:  Chattanooga beats ETSU
CUSA:  LaTech lost yet again, UAB wins and is the clear favorite

1/15 recap

@Dayton 77, George Washington 70 - a golden chance to get an at-large elixir by the boards for GW....Dayton in very, very good shape
Monmouth 110, @Iona 102 - an important signature win for Monmouth, the toughest conference game on paper is safely navigated past

Akron lost on the road to Toledo, the MAC is starting to become a bit of a mess
Evansville beats Illinois St on the road, still isn't relevant

Friday, January 15, 2016

1/14 recap

B1G:
Iowa 76, @Michigan St 59 - huh, this Iowa thing seems to actually be real.  who knew

Pac-12:
@Arizona 99, Washington 67
@Arizona St 84, Washington St 73
Oregon 77, @Utah 59 - if I was forced to guess, the top tier of the Pac-12 is now Arizona/Oregon/USC in some order, with Utah a solid 4th and everyone in a jumbled mess behind it
@Stanford 77, California 71

ACC:
@Louisville 59, Pittsburgh 41 - no biggie for Pitt, good stabilizing win for UL that establishes themselves at the bottom end of the UNC/Duke/UVa/Miami tier

WCC:
BYU 69, @Gonzaga 68 - Gonzaga isn't in the lockbox, folks
@St Mary's 78, Pacific 62

AAC:
@Tulsa 60, UConn 51 - less margin of error available for UConn than you think

Sun Belt:
@Arkansas-Little Rock 81, Appalachian St 55
Texas-Arlington 90, Troy 63

Horizon:
@Valparaiso 68, Milwaukee 56

elsewhere:
Chattanooga wins in the SoCon
CAAWatch:  Northeastern lost on the road to JMU (making that at-large hail mary scenario more hail maryish).  W&M and Hofstra are now on point at 4-1
CUSA:  LaTech lost again, and UAB might be the only legit team left here
Summit:  South Dakota St beats IPFW at home (not a trivial win)

Thursday, January 14, 2016

1/13 recap

Big 12:
Oklahoma 74, @Oklahoma St 72
@Baylor 82, TCU 54

Big East:
@Villanova 83, Marquette 68
Georgetown 93, @St John's 73 - GU is probably still dead, but this was mandatory to stay alive

Pac-12:
@Colorado 71, Oregon St 54
USC 89, @UCLA 75 - USC has more or less broken away from the bubble pack

ACC:
@Clemson 68, Duke 63 - well, there you have it, Clemson is a legit bubble team now.  And for the ACC, they're giving up a lot of ground collectively on the S-Curve
@Syracuse 62, Boston College 40
@Virginia Tech 93, Wake Forest 91 - I know it's a road game, but darnit Wake, you were just beginning to sniff the bubble
@Notre Dame 72, Georgia Tech 64 - neither team in exactly great shape here
Florida St 85, @North Carolina St 78 - and it's tough to see either team mattering

B1G:
@Purdue 74, Penn St 57
@Ohio St 94, Rutgers 68

SEC:
@Alabama 73, South Carolina 50 - that should stop the USC bandwagon from careening out of control.  Still a bubble team, I think
@Georgia 81, Tennessee 72
@LSU 90, Ole Miss 81 - well give LSU credit, they're maintaining their pulse now.  Bigger news is trying to figure out what to do with Ole Miss

A-10:
@VCU 88, Fordham 54
St Joseph's 87, @George Mason 73
@Richmond 83, LaSalle 61 - status quo in the A-10 is good news
@St Bonaventure 69, Rhode Island 64 - yeah, URI is dead, but now SBU has a chance here

AAC:
SMU 79, @East Carolina 55
@Cincinnati 70, Houston 59 - Houston had their chance to prove they're real and....nope.  Probably ideal result for AAC, to just let Cincy and UConn build whatever resume they can and everyone else dies off
@Memphis 67, Temple 65 - it's tough to find an at-large road for either of these teams

MVC:
@Indiana St 74, Northern Iowa 60 - jesus christ, UNI
Wichita St 78, @Missouri St 62

MWC:
San Diego St 69, @Colorado St 62
Boise St 74, @Nevada 67 - it's probably good news for the MWC if SDSU and Boise run and hide from the rest...so these road wins are big

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

1/12 recap

Big 12:
@West Virginia 74, Kansas 63 - WVU with a signature win, and nearing the lockbox.  Kansas does not have the profile they typically have, and are less secure on the 1 line than you think
@Texas 94, Iowa St 81 (OT) - ISU is losing the draft of the top 3 lines right now
@Kansas St 83, Texas Tech 70 - hey, all you idiots putting TTU in your bracket:  Stop.

Big East:
@Xavier 84, DePaul 64
Providence 50, @Creighton 48 - near disaster for Provi, and almost nearly Creighton getting themselves into the bubble conversation

ACC:
@Virginia 66, Miami 58 - neither team gets a major movement either way from this one

B1G:
@Michigan 70, Maryland 63 - UM gets themselves a signature win
@Northwestern 70, Wisconsin 65 - NW, staying relevant
@Nebraska 84, Minnesota 59

SEC:
@Kentucky 80, Mississippi St 74
@Texas A&M 71, Florida 68 - UF will need to bink a signature win in SEC play at some point; this just wasn't it
Arkansas 94, @Missouri 61
@Vanderbilt 75, Auburn 57

A-10:
George Washington 81, @UMass 70 - road wins are road wins
@Dayton 80, Davidson 74 - this was Davidson's best chance to erase earlier sins

MAC:  Akron loses at CMU, NIU wins to stay undefeated
MVC:  SIU and Evansville win and have gaudy records, but aren't bubble-worthy yet
MWC:  the mid-table of this conference is a mess.  New Mexico loses at UNLV

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

1/11 recap

Just about everyone took the day off.

MAAC:
Monmouth 86, @Fairfield 74

elsewhere:
Chattanooga won on the road at Wofford...Bucknell to 5-0 in the Patriot...aaaand that's about it

Monday, January 11, 2016

1/11 BRACKET

One dynamic emerging:  the lack of western teams at the top.  Why is this important?

Say you're #8 overall on the S-Curve.  As the worst 2 seed, you get last choice of regional, which is almost guaranteed to be the west.  Look at UNC having to go west.  Meanwhile, Miami at #9 overall (1st 3 seed), they get to stay east.

Also this matters for the top conferences.  Look at Iowa and Iowa St.  They are the 3rd best teams in their conferences, but they have to go west at the top 2 teams are blocking their preferred regionals.  In the end, a team that finishes 3rd in their conference is a real threat to be forced out west because of conference conflicts.

MIDWEST
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (13-1) vs. 16) Sam Houston St (5-7)/Bryant (5-11)
8) George Washington (13-3) vs. 9) Colorado (11-4)
@Spokane
4) Texas A&M (13-2) vs. 13) UAB (12-3)
5) Oregon (12-3) vs. 12) Boise St (10-4)
@Denver
3) Providence (14-2) vs. 14) Houston (13-2)
6) Louisville (13-3) vs. 11) Washington (11-4)
@Raleigh
2) Duke (13-2) vs. 15) Tennessee Tech (10-5)
7) Indiana (14-3) vs. 10) Seton Hall (12-4)

WEST
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (14-2) vs. 16) Bucknell (6-8)
8) Florida (10-5) vs. 9) Monmouth (11-4)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (12-3) vs. 13) Northern Illinois (9-2)
5) Pittsburgh (13-1) vs. 12) St Bonaventure (11-3)
@St Louis
3) Iowa (12-3) vs. 14) Omaha (10-6)
6) Butler (12-4) vs. 11) Texas (9-6)/Ole Miss (12-3)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (15-2) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (10-5)
7) Utah (11-4) vs. 10) UConn (11-4)

EAST
@Des Moines
1) Michigan St (16-1) vs. 16) Wofford (5-9)
8) Wichita St (9-5) vs. 9) Oregon St (10-3)
@Spokane
4) West Virginia (14-1) vs. 13) Stony Brook (9-4)
5) Arizona (13-3) vs. 12) UC-Irvine (11-5)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (13-1) vs. 14) North Florida (10-6)
6) South Carolina (14-0) vs. 11) Arkansas-Little Rock (12-2)
@St Louis
2) Xavier (14-1) vs. 15) Montana (6-6)
7) USC (14-3) vs. 10) Michigan (11-4)

SOUTH
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (13-1) vs. 16) Jackson St (6-8)/Hampton (7-7)
8) California (12-5) vs. 9) Valparaiso (11-3)
@Providence
4) Virginia (12-3) vs. 13) Princeton (10-4)
5) Purdue (14-2) vs. 12) William & Mary (9-4)
@Providence
3) Kentucky (12-3) vs. 14) Iona (9-6)
6) Dayton (12-3) vs. 11) Baylor (11-3)/Texas-Arlington (11-2)
@Brooklyn
2) Maryland (15-1) vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield (8-5)
7) Gonzaga (12-3) vs. 10) UCLA (11-6)

1/11 S-CURVE

Current AQ shenanigans, based on current standings:
Houston has the AAC bid, not UConn or Cincy
Wofford has the SoCon bid, not Chattanooga
Omaha has the Summit bid, not South Dakota St
St Bonaventure has the A-10 bid
Washington has the Pac-12 bid
Iona has the MAAC bid, not Monmouth

The 1 line:  Kansas (13-1), Oklahoma (13-1), Michigan St (16-1), Villanova (14-2)
The 2 line:  Xavier (14-1), Maryland (15-1), North Carolina (15-2), Duke (13-2)
The 3 line:  Miami (13-1), Providence (14-2), Iowa (12-3), Kentucky (12-3)
The 4 line:  Iowa St (12-3), Virginia (12-3), West Virginia (14-1), Texas A&M (13-2)
The 5 line:  Oregon (12-3), Arizona (13-3), Purdue (14-2), Pittsburgh (13-1)
The 6 line:  Louisville (13-3), Butler (12-4), South Carolina (14-0), Dayton (12-3)
The 7 line:  USC (14-3), Indiana (14-3), Utah (11-4), Gonzaga (12-3)
The 8 line:  California (12-5), Florida (10-5), Wichita St (9-5), George Washington (13-3)
The 9 line:  Oregon St (10-3), Monmouth (11-4), Colorado (11-4), Valparaiso (11-3)
The 10 line:  Seton Hall (12-4), UConn (11-4), UCLA (11-6), Michigan (11-4)
The 11 line:  Baylor (11-3), Texas (9-6), Ole Miss (12-3), Texas-Arlington (11-2), Arkansas-Little Rock (12-2), Washington (11-4)
The 12 line:  William & Mary (9-4), Boise St (10-4), St Bonaventure (11-3), UC-Irvine (11-5)
The 13 line:  Northern Illinois (9-2), Princeton (10-4), Stony Brook (9-4), UAB (12-3)
The 14 line:  Houston (13-2), Omaha (10-6), Iona (9-6), North Florida (10-6)
The 15 line:  Tennessee Tech (10-5), Montana (6-6), UNC-Asheville (10-5), Cal St-Bakersfield (8-5)
The 16 line:  Wofford (5-9), Bucknell (6-8), Sam Houston St (5-7), Jackson St (6-8), Hampton (7-7), Bryant (5-11)

Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
UConn
UCLA
Michigan

Last 4 in:
Baylor
Texas
Ole Miss
Texas-Arlington

Last 4 out:
Cincinnati (12-5)
Arkansas-Little Rock*
St Joseph's (12-3)
Wake Forest (10-5)
Ohio St (11-6)

Next 4 out:
St Mary's (13-2)
Georgia Tech (11-5)
Texas Tech (11-3)
Arizona St (10-6)

The consideration board:
Marquette (12-4)
Notre Dame (10-5)
Washington*
Stanford (8-6)
Syracuse (10-7)
Alabama (9-5)
Davidson (9-4)
VCU (11-5)
Tulsa (10-6)
South Dakota St (11-4)
LSU (9-6)
Vanderbilt (8-7)
Northwestern (14-3)

Break it down!
Pac-12 9
Big 12 6
ACC 6
B1G 6
Big East 5
SEC 5
A-10 3
AAC 2
Sun Belt 2
MAAC 2

1/10 recap

B1G:
Michigan St 92, @Penn St 65
@Illinois 84, Purdue 70 - 3 seeds win this type of road game, Purdue
@Indiana 85, Ohio St 60 - at least Indiana is solidifying their positioning

Pac-12:
@Oregon 71, Stanford 58

Big East:
Villanova 60, @Butler 55 - Villanova sending statements everywhere.  They're in contention for the 1 line.  Are they ahead of Xavier now?  Xavier are computer profile monsters.  Right now, Nova is a healthy 2.  As for Butler....slipping back in the pack towards the 6 line.

ACC:
@Clemson 66, Louisville 62 - UL, oh no
@Wake Forest 77, NC State 74 - well, NCSU is dead...is Wake alive?  They need much more but don't dismiss them yet

AAC:
@SMU 88, Central Florida 73
Cincinnati 54, @South Florida 51
Tulsa 81, @Tulane 67

A-10:
@St Joseph's 72, Rhode Island 67 - disappointing year from URI
VCU 72, @St Louis 56

Horizon:
Valparaiso 92, @Detroit 74

Sunday, January 10, 2016

1/9 recap

A-10:
@LaSalle 61, Dayton 57 - ugly loss, LaSalle is not good.  This is not the spot where you want to use the road mulligan
St Bonaventure 88, @UMass 77 - Bonaventure...not quite on the at-large radar yet, but in play
@Davidson 81, George Mason 75
@George Washington 91, Duquesne 64

ACC:
@Georgia Tech 68, Virginia 64 - so, um Virginia has a problem dropping road games they shouldn't.  That's going to cause some seeding issues in March.  Keep an eye out for this trend
North Carolina 84, @Syracuse 73
@Miami 72, Florida St 59
@Duke 82, Virginia Tech 58
Pittsburgh 86, @Notre Dame 82 - UND in bubble trouble; the bigger story is Pitt starting to really solidify themselves in the lockbox

AAC:
@UConn 81, Memphis 78 - the computer numbers are ugly but all UConn can do is win at this point
@Temple 78, East Carolina 60

Big 12:
Kansas 69, @Texas Tech 59 - ok, everyone needs to cool it on TTU, okay?
@Oklahoma 86, Kansas St 76
Baylor 94, @Iowa St 89 - Baylor was the one team in the conference in computer profile trouble, and this solves a lot.  A big story for ISU here as well, because they've lost the lead draft of Kansas/Oklahoma and that could be worth a couple seeding lines
@West Virginia 77, Oklahoma St 60
@TCU 58, Texas 57 - when you're a bubble team, you can't spend road games like this.  Need to win the gimmies on the road

Big East:
@Georgetown 74, DePaul 63
Creighton 82, @Seton Hall 67 - pretty bad for SHU.  Is Creighton in play for the bubble yet?  I'll need more than this, but it's a start
@Marquette 81, St Johns 75

B1G:
Maryland 63, @Wisconsin 60
Northwestern 77, @Minnesota 52 - the computer profile is an issue, but any road win is a good win

CAA:  William & Mary beats Northeastern, and everyone has a loss in conference now.  This could be a fun race to watch

MAAC:
@Monmouth 88, Quinnipiac 74 - Iona also won, and is getting annoying for leading the conference over Monmouth

MVC:
Wichita St 83, @Southern Illinois 58
@Northern Iowa 77, Drake 44

MW:
Colorado St 85, @San Jose St 84
@Wyoming 59, UNLV 57
@New Mexico 77, Utah St 59
@Boise St 81, Fresno St 70

Pac-12:
@USC 103, Arizona 101 (4OT) - Zona is just throwing away seed lines right now
Washington 99, @Washington St 95 (OT)
@UCLA 81, Arizona St 74
@Oregon St 77, California 71 - it's becoming more and more difficult to analyze the middle of this conference.  Everyone seems the same, profile wise.  And Arizona is slipping to the middle here.  Any predictions on this conference are moot, because it's all going to change by March

SEC:
Kentucky 77, @Alabama 61
Texas A&M 92, @Tennessee 88 - A&M is a solid #2 here
@South Carolina 69, Vanderbilt 65 - Vandy's collapse is complete, just about
@Florida 68, LSU 62 - no big deal for LSU to lose this road game after their big results last week, but they'll eventually need more
@Ole Miss 72, Georgia 71 - Ole Miss starting to pull away as a solid #3 in this conference

SoCon:  Chattanooga lost on the road, so those remote at-large hopes dwindled further

Sun Belt:
@Arkansas-Little Rock 58, Louisiana-Monroe 57

WCC:
@Pepperdine 67, St Marys 64 - tough ask, but St Mary's has to walk a fine line given its SoS and road/home splits.  Not the worst road loss, though
@Gonzaga 85, Portland 74
@BYU 102, San Francisco 92

Saturday, January 9, 2016

1/8 recap

Horizon:
Valparaiso 84, @Oakland 67 - this was supposed to be one of the trickiest spots for Valpo on the Horizon schedule, so good here

Pac-12:
Utah 56, @Colorado 54 - a pretty good road win, and for Utah, it's big to stay a step ahead of the bubble morass in the conference

In the MAC:  Akron won at home, but Kent St lost at home to Buffalo.

Friday, January 8, 2016

1/8 S-CURVE

Preface to the bracket:  starting today, I project the current leader in the conference standings as the autobid winner for the conference.  This leads to the following oddities in the bracket:
-Houston has the AAC autobid, not UConn or Cincy
-Green Bay has the Horizon autobid, not Valpo
-St Mary's has the WCC autobid, not Gonzaga
-UTA has the Sun Belt autobid instead of UALR
-Iona has the MAAC autobid, not Monmouth
-Omaha has the Summit autobid, not South Dakota St
-also, San Diego St has the MWC autobid as of now

This is an unusual time for the update, but wanted to fix a few things and introduce the conference standing rule for the rest of the year.  No bracket today.

The 1 line:  Kansas (12-1), Oklahoma (12-1), Michigan St (15-1), Xavier (14-1)
The 2 line:  North Carolina (14-2), Villanova (13-2), Maryland (14-1), Virginia (12-2)
The 3 line:  Iowa St (12-2), Duke (13-2), Miami (12-1), Providence (14-2)
The 4 line:  Iowa (12-3), Purdue (14-2), Kentucky (11-3), Louisville (13-2)
The 5 line:  Dayton (12-2), Arizona (13-2), West Virginia (13-1), Texas A&M (12-2)
The 6 line:  Butler (12-3), Oregon (11-3), Pittsburgh (12-1), Utah (10-4)
The 7 line:  South Carolina (13-0), Indiana (13-3), California (12-4), USC (13-3)
The 8 line:  George Washington (12-3), Colorado (11-3), Gonzaga (11-3), Michigan (11-4)
The 9 line:  Oregon St (9-3), Texas (9-5), Seton Hall (12-3), Wichita St (8-5)
The 10 line:  Monmouth (10-4), Ole Miss (11-3), Texas-Arlington (11-2), Ohio St (11-5)
The 11 line:  Florida (9-5), Valparaiso (9-3), Arizona St (10-5), UCLA (10-6), Arkansas-Little Rock (11-1), St Mary's (13-1)
The 12 line:  San Diego St (8-6), Chattanooga (11-2), Northeastern (10-5), Green Bay (8-5)
The 13 line:  UC-Irvine (10-5), Kent St (9-4), Omaha (9-6), Houston (13-2)
The 14 line:  Stony Brook (8-4), Yale (8-5), UAB (11-3), Iona (8-6)
The 15 line:  Tennessee Tech (9-5), North Florida (9-6), High Point (8-4), New Mexico St (8-7)
The 16 line:  Montana (5-6), Sam Houston St (4-7), Bucknell (5-8), Hampton (6-7), Mount St Mary's (6-10), Jackson St (5-8)

Next 4 in:
Monmouth
Ole Miss
Texas-Arlington*
Ohio St
Florida

Last 4 in:
Valparaiso
Arizona St
St Joseph's
Arkansas-Little Rock

Last 4 out:
UConn (10-4)
Cincinnati (11-5)
St Joseph's (11-3)
Notre Dame (10-4)

Next 4 out:
Stanford (8-5)
St Mary's*
Baylor (10-3)
Texas Tech (11-2)
Georgia Tech (10-5)

The consideration board:  South Dakota St, LSU, Alabama, Northern Iowa, Davidson, Wake Forest

Break it down!:
(this will be the weirdest Break It Down in Bracketball history)
Pac-12 9
B1G 7
ACC 6
Big 12 5
Big East 5
SEC 5
A-10 2
Horizon 2
West Coast 2
Sun Belt 2
MAAC 2
---
American 1
Mountain West 1
MVC 1

1/7 recap

ACC:
Louisville 77, @NC State 72 - a golden signature win chance off the board for NCSU
Notre Dame 82, @Boston College 54

B1G:
@Michigan St 79, Illinois 54
@Purdue 87, Michigan 70

Pac-12:
@UCLA 87, Arizona 84 - a signature win for UCLA, and an even bigger mess in the Pac-12.  Maybe we just put 8 of their teams on the 8-9 lines and call it a day
@USC 75, Arizona St 65 - at this point, home wins are basically service holds for the home team and no real harm for the road team (unless there's a bunch of losses like that)

AAC:
@SMU 59, Cincinnati 57 - probably too much to ask of Cincy on the road, but the American is another step closer to 1-bid armageddon

SEC:
@Ole Miss 74, Alabama 66 - bubble battle

WCC:
St Mary's 73, @Loyola Marymount 48
@BYU 97, Santa Clara 61

CAA:
Charleston > Hofstra
Northeastern and William & Mary handle the bottomfeeders
Elon > James Madison
Towson > UNCW
Northeastern is the only undefeated CAA team left at 3-0

Summit:
@IUPUI 74, South Dakota St 67 - the at-large chances were slim, but alive.  This might be a dagger.  Plus NDSU lost at home as well to Omaha, so they might be the real threats now

Sun Belt:
UT-Arlington 71, @Appalachian St 67
@Arkansas-Little Rock 77, Louisiana-Lafayette 57

CUSA:  LaTech loses at home to ODU.  Figures that well after ODU plays it way out of bubble conversation, they beat the league leaders on the road.  MTSU beats UTEP at home...probably your 2nd and 3rd best CUSA teams...well maybe throw UAB in there, who also won.  Bottom line is that CUSA is a mess where the bottom half is actively hurting the top half with their poorness, and no one can establish themselves as the favorite on the top half.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

A quick look at conference RPI

Now, as a preface, remember:  teams get bids, not conferences.  However, the strength of a conference can help support a bid (or hurt it).  It's useful to see the conference RPI because it gives a quick snapshot of if conference play can generally help or hurt a team.  Let's look at the standings and see if we can get ahead of some trends.

I've broken these down into tiers based on the raw values of the RPI, which I'll list.

Tier 1:
1) Big 12  .5991
2) Pac-12  .5913

These two have separated just a little bit from the other power conferences.  The Big 12 has a ridiculous 4 teams currently inside the Top 10 RPI and 6 inside the top 25.  This is a big help to Baylor.  They have a pretty poor non-con SoS but will make it all up.  Texas Tech is the other notable.  They have a top 10 SoS right now despite their signature win probably being UALR or South Dakota St.  They completely avoided sub-250 teams, and completely gamed the system.  And now, conference play will support them.

The Pac-12 might only have one lock in Arizona, but there are a total of 9 teams with an RPI between 14 and 49 right now.  Plus UCLA in the 70s.  Bottom line is that with no bad teams in the conference, several will make the tournament.  We just don't know who yet.

Tier 2:
3) Big East  .5819
4) ACC  .5802

They'll both get half their teams in the field of 68, give or take one.

Tier 3:
5) SEC  .5676
6) B1G  .5627

The big story is the B1G being this far down, essentially even with the SEC.  Problems are that they have a few deadweights and a few relatively weak bubble teams.  There will be enough quality wins available for the B1G to get a 5th and maybe a 6th team, but it's tough to envision anything more.  The SEC is rallying back a bit, they've finally caught one of the conferences typically in the top 5.

Tier 4:
7) A-10  .5427

The usual spot for the A-10.  They'll be in line with recent years.

Tier 5:
8) AAC  .5254
9) CAA .5223

Problems for the AAC.  Even though they're 8th, their raw numbers have them closer to 12th than 8th.  Multiple bids will be an issue because they have exactly 1 Top 70 RPI team:  SMU.

The CAA is the first outlier.  Without a true bubble team, they have several teams that built good records against okay competition.  This will result in a high seed for their champion, but I can't find an at-large resume to rally around at the moment.

Tier 6:
10) Summit  .5130
11) Mountain West  .5121
12) Big West  .5052
13) MAC  .5019
14) MVC  .5008

Big problems for the MWC and MVC.  They're not supposed to be slumming it down here.  The threat of 1 bid is real for these conferences.  The Summit is a big surprise, and I wish I could explain why.  They have avoided having a truly awful team, but outside of South Dakota St there's not a lot of strength here.  The Big West is here again thanks to some brutal SoSs, and the MAC is in line with recent years.

Tier 7:
15) Horizon  .4901
16) West Coast  .4852
17) SoCon  .4836
18) Sun Belt  .4805
19) Ivy  .4785
20) MAAC  .4758
21) CUSA  .4716

Even bigger problems for the WCC.  Sun Belt has UTA and UALR; MAAC has Monmouth.  Those are the 3 at-large resumes to look out for from the bottom half of these standings.  Both conferences are down, but they're closer to 15th than 23rd.  So both conferences will hurt those teams, but not more so than we're usually accustomed to.

The big lesson?  Teams in conferences from 8th on back aren't really in great shape.  Good news for the A-10 perhaps.  The MWC, MVC, and WCC are having catastrophically bad seasons so far.  And the AAC needs SMU to start providing quality wins to the rest of the conference.

If South Dakota St can dominate the Summit, they might have a shot.  If someone dominates the CAA (which I highly doubt because there are several good teams), they'd have a shot also.  UTA, UALR, and Monmouth more or less have to dominate to stay in favorable position.

1/6 recap

B1G:
@Maryland 88, Rutgers 63
Ohio St 65, @Northwestern 56 - a better road win than you think, and a potentially fatal blow to NW's chances

Big 12:
@Iowa St 76, Texas Tech 69

ACC:
Duke 91, @Wake Forest 75
@Pittsburgh 89, Georgia Tech 84

Big East:
Xavier 74, @St John's 66
@Villanova 72, Seton Hall 63

SEC:
Texas A&M 61, @Mississippi St 60 - near disaster for A&M
@Georgia 77, Missouri 59
@Tennessee 83, Florida 69 - a minor ding against UF, but road games are tough

Pac-12:
@Oregon 68, California 65 - no harm no foul to Cal for a close road loss
Stanford 78, @Oregon St 72 - road wins are one way to emerge from the absolute mess that is the middle of the conference...and home losses are one way to slip to the back of the pack

A-10:
@Dayton 93, UMass 63
@St Louis 65, George Washington 62 - I have no idea what GW is doing, but this is a rather marginal loss
St Bonaventure 77, @George Mason 58
@Davidson 77, Duquesne 66

MVC:
@Wichita St 67, Evansville 64
@Missouri St 59, Northern Iowa 58 - catastrophic doesn't even begin to describe this loss
*note:  I refuse to take Southern Illinois seriously as an at-large candidate

MW:
@Colorado St 66, UNLV 65 - and both teams are fringe NIT teams
@San Diego St 77, San Jose St 62
@Fresno St 85, Nevada 63

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

1/5 recap

Big 12:
@Baylor 79, Oklahoma St 62
@Texas 60, Kansas St 57

Big East:
Marquette 65, @Providence 64 - a catastrophic loss for Providence.  1 seeds don't lose this type of game.  Marquette is back in the middle of the bubble talk, and the Big East can absolutely support a bid for a 6th team
Butler 77, @DePaul 72
@Creighton 79, Georgetown 66 - it's getting late early for GU's bubble chances

ACC:
Clemson 74, @Syracuse 73 (OT) - a really bad loss, and Syracuse is now on the brink

SEC:
@LSU 85, Kentucky 67 - LSU has erased a lot of sins in the past week and have fought back to the bubble.  Work left to do, still
South Carolina 81, @Auburn 69 - I kinda wish USC would lose real quick here so we can avoid that feeling that they're frauds
@Arkansas 90, Vanderbilt 85 (OT) - what's going on with Vandy?  From tourney team to nowhere near the bubble, and fast

B1G:
@Iowa 77, Nebraska 66
@Indiana 59, Wisconsin 58 - a hold of service which Indiana needs to solidify a position
@Penn St 86, Minnesota 77

AAC:
Temple 55, @UConn 53 - a terrible, no good loss for UConn, who isn't the lock people think
@Tulsa 55, East Carolina 43
@Houston 63, Tulane 45 - well, Houston still has that gaudy record

A-10:
@Rhode Island 77, Richmond 65 - two teams just barely close enough to the bubble to matter for the time being
VCU 85, @St Joseph's 82 - a pretty bad loss for a St Joe's team who's been sneaking up on the bubble.  Gotta hold in spots like these.  VCU still has work to do, by the way

MW:
Boise St 76, @Utah St 61 - well, if Boise can establish itself as top dog in the MW, they'll have a fighting chance at an at-large

Notables:
Chattanooga over Mercer in the SoCon (probably not an at-large team, but building a reasonable profile
Akron wins at Buffalo, Kent wins at WMU in the MAC
non-con cupcake winners:  Memphis

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

1/4 recap

Big 12:
@Kansas 109, Oklahoma 106 - largely unimportant on the grand scale; both are on the 1 line for now and pecking order will be determined by later games
West Virginia 95, @TCU 87 - road wins are never trivail

ACC:
@Virginia Tech 70, Virginia 68 - talk about a catastrophic loss, it's going to take a lot of good against the upper division to erase this one.  This is the type of loss that costs someone the 1 line
North Carolina 106, @Florida St 90

MAAC:
@Monmouth 81, Canisius 66
Iona maintains pole position at 4-0 in the conference

elsewhere:
In the SWAC, Southern had the best non-con of them all, so naturally they're now 0-2 in conference play

Monday, January 4, 2016

1/4 BRACKET

There's a lot going on here, so read after the bracket.

MIDWEST
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (12-0) vs. 16) Hampton (5-7)/Wagner (6-5)
8) California (12-3) vs. 9) Pittsburgh (11-1)
@Spokane
4) Louisville (12-2) vs. 13) Northeastern (9-5)
5) Dayton (11-2) vs. 12) Alabama (9-3)
@Providence
3) Duke (12-2) vs. 14) Stony Brook (7-4)
6) Indiana (12-3) vs. 11) Texas (8-5)
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova (12-2) vs. 15) Idaho (8-5)
7) George Washington (12-2) vs. 10) Valparaiso (9-3)

EAST
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (12-1) vs. 16) Army (9-4)
8) Monmouth (9-4) vs. 9) UT-Arlington (10-2)
@Spokane
4) Purdue (13-2) vs. 13) Chattanooga (10-2)
5) West Virginia (12-1) vs. 12) St Joseph's (11-2)
@Des Moines
3) Iowa St (11-2) vs. 14) Kent St (8-4)
6) Oregon (10-3) vs. 11) Arkansas-Little Rock (10-1)/Notre Dame (9-4)
@Des Moines
2) Xavier (13-1) vs. 15) Tennessee Tech (8-5)
7) South Carolina (12-0) vs. 10) Arizona St (10-4)

WEST
@St Louis
1) Kansas (11-1) vs. 16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (7-3)
8) Gonzaga (11-3) vs. 9) Colorado (11-3)
@Denver
4) Miami (12-1) vs. 13) Louisiana Tech (10-2)
5) Texas A&M (11-2) vs. 12) Oregon St (9-2)
@Brooklyn
3) Providence (14-1) vs. 14) Yale (7-5)
6) USC (12-3) vs. 11) Syracuse (10-5)/Baylor (9-3)
@Providence
2) Maryland (13-1) vs. 15) High Point (8-4)
7) Seton Hall (12-2) vs. 10) Florida (9-4)

SOUTH
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (14-1) vs. 16) Cal St-Bakersfield (7-5)/Southern (5-6)
8) UConn (10-3) vs. 9) Wichita St (7-5)
@Denver
4) Arizona (13-1) vs. 13) San Diego St (7-6)
5) Iowa (11-3) vs. 12) South Dakota St (11-3)
@Oklahoma City
3) Kentucky (11-2) vs. 14) UC-Irvine (9-5)
6) Butler (11-3) vs. 11) Cincinnati (11-4)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (13-2) vs. 15) North Florida (8-6)
7) Utah (10-4) vs. 10) Michigan (11-3)


1) Right now, the Spokane and Denver sites will take the 4 lowest protected seeds (all 4 seeds).  There is truly an east coast bias in the brackets this year.  No west-coast team has higher than a 4 seed.  This means it's more critical than ever for the east coast teams contending for a top-3 seed to get as high as possible to avoid a cross-country trip.
2) The chain reaction to all this is that a lot of teams are going to have to take a long road trip.  The 4-5-12-13 seeds are just going to have to travel a bunch, there's no way around it.
3) To further this thought, the play-in game winners...aren't traveling across the country.  Those games get a bump to the 11 line in this bracket, and the committee will have to get creative if this situation stays as is.
4) The Pac-12 is an interesting conference right now.  Highest seed is a 4 seed in Arizona, but they have 8 teams in this bracket.  A lot of them are middling seeds, and a lot of them are traveling a bunch.

Break it down!:
Pac-12 8
ACC 8
Big 12 6
B1G 6
SEC 5
Big East 5
A-10 3
AAC 2
Sun Belt 2
MVC, MWC, WCC 1

1/4 S-CURVE

Just getting this up for now, bracket later today.

The 1 line:  Oklahoma (12-0), Michigan St (14-1), Kansas (11-1), Virginia (12-1)
The 2 line:  Xavier (13-1), North Carolina (13-2), Villanova (12-2), Maryland (13-1)
The 3 line:  Providence (14-1), Kentucky (11-2), Duke (12-2), Iowa St (11-2)
The 4 line:  Arizona (13-1), Miami (12-1), Purdue (13-2), Louisville (12-2)
The 5 line:  Dayton (11-2), Iowa (11-3), Texas A&M (11-2), West Virginia (12-1)
The 6 line:  Butler (11-3), Oregon (10-3), Indiana (12-3), USC (12-3)
The 7 line:  South Carolina (12-0), Seton Hall (12-2), George Washington (12-2), Utah (10-4)
The 8 line:  Gonzaga (11-3), California (12-3), UConn (10-3), Monmouth (9-4)
The 9 line:  Pittsburgh (11-1), Colorado (11-3), Wichita St (7-5), UT-Arlington (10-2)
The 10 line:  Arizona St (10-4), Michigan (11-3), Valparaiso (9-3), Florida (9-4)
The 11 line:  Cincinnati (11-4), Texas (8-5), St Joseph's (11-2), Oregon St (9-2)
The 12 line:  Alabama (9-3), Syracuse (10-5), Baylor (9-3), Arkansas-Little Rock (10-1), Notre Dame (9-4), South Dakota St (11-3)
The 13 line:  San Diego St (7-6), Louisiana Tech (10-2), Northeastern (9-5), Chattanooga (10-2)
The 14 line:  UC-Irvine (9-5), Kent St (8-4), Stony Brook (7-4), Yale (7-5)
The 15 line:  North Florida (8-6), Tennessee Tech (8-5), High Point (8-4), Idaho (8-5)
The 16 line:  Army (9-4), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (7-3), Cal St-Bakersfield (7-5), Southern (5-6), Hampton (5-7), Wagner (6-5)

Next 4 in:
Texas
St Joseph's
Oregon St
Alabama

Last 4 in:
Syracuse
Baylor
Arkansas-Little Rock
Notre Dame

Last 4 out:
Northern Iowa (8-6)
Ohio St (10-5)
Texas Tech (11-1)
UCLA (9-6)

Next 4 out:
St Mary's (12-1)
Northwestern (13-2)
Wake Forest (9-4)
Ole Miss (10-3)

1/3 recap

Pac-12:
Arizona 94, @Arizona St 82
@California 71, Utah 58 - well, Cal is stabilizing a little bit as a tournament team
@Washington St 85, UCLA 78 - not a good look for UCLA, getting swept at the Washingtons
@Washington 87, USC 85
@Oregon St 70, Oregon 57
Colorado 56, @Stanford 55 - not a trivial road win for Colorado

B1G:
@Ohio St 75, Illinois 73

ACC:
@Louisville 65, Wake Forest 57

A-10:
@George Washington 69, Fordham 63
MVC:
Wichita St 85, @Bradley 58

elsewhere:
In the Summit, NDSU and SDSU win
In CUSA, UAB wins over MTSU

Sunday, January 3, 2016

1/2 recap

B1G:
Michigan St 69, @Minnesota 61
Maryland 72, @Northwestern 59 - one of the few chances at a signature win already off the boards for NW
Iowa 70, @Purdue 63 - Iowa?  really?  okay then, time to take them legitimately
@Michigan 79, Penn St 56
@Wisconsin 79, Rutgers 57
Indiana 79, @Nebraska 69

ACC:
@Virginia 77, Notre Dame 66
@North Carolina 86, Georgia Tech 78
@Miami 64, Syracuse 51 - I think Syracuse might be in trouble now
Duke 81, Boston College 64
@Clemson 84, Florida St 75
@Virginia Tech 73, NC State 68 (OT) - early black mark for NCSU

Big East:
@Xavier 88, Butler 69 - not panicking over Butler yet, and a key win for X
@Providence 83, St John's 65
Villanova 85, @Creighton 71
@Seton Hall 78, DePaul 74
@Georgetown 80, Marquette 70

Big 12:
@Kansas 102, Baylor 74
@Oklahoma 87, Iowa St 83 - won't budge either team much when the home team held, but Oklahoma has the inside track on the 1 line over Kansas for the time being
West Virginia 87, @Kansas St 83 (2OT)
@Texas Tech 82, Texas 74 - not good, Texas
@Oklahoma St 69, TCU 48

SEC:
@Kentucky 83, Ole Miss 61
@Texas A&M 92, Arkansas 69
@Auburn 83, Tennessee 77
@Florida 77, Georgia 63
LSU 90, @Vanderbilt 82 - finally, LSU does something, just in time to hurt a probable bubble team while not helping their case enough.  Wonderful

AAC:
@SMU 72, South Florida 58
@Cincinnati 76, Tulsa 57 - Tulsa probably isn't a tournament team now
Houston 77, @Temple 50
UConn 75, Tulane 67

A-10:
St Joseph's 77, @Richmond 73
Dayton 66, @Duquesne 58
@Rhode Island 85, St Louis 57
@VCU 71, George Mason 47
@St Bonaventure 97, Davidson 85 - Davidson is close to done

MVC:
@Southern Illinois 75, Northern Iowa 73 - well, UNI's destiny is going to be the controversial at-large profile, it appears

WCC:
BYU 81, @Pacific 67
@St Mary's 79, San Diego 46
Gonzaga 102, @San Francisco 94 (OT)

MWC:
@Boise St 84, Colorado St 80 - CSU is done
San Diego St 70, @Utah St 67

elsewhere:
CAA:  JMU wins on the road, W&M beats Charleston at home, Northeastern wins on the road, Hofstra wins on the road
Horizon:  Valpo wins
Sun Belt:  UALR wins on the road, UTA also wins
CUSA:  LaTech wins

non-con:
@South Carolina 86, Memphis 76
cupcake winners:  Alabama, Pitt, Akron

Saturday, January 2, 2016

1/1 recap

Pac-12:
@Stanford 70, Utah 68 (OT) - an important home hold if Stanford is going to be a bubble player this year, and a loss that's kinda harmful if you're gunning for a protected seed
@Washington 96, UCLA 93 (2OT) - um, the same applies here too
USC 90, @Washington St 77 - one road team handled their business, at least
@California 79, Colorado 65 - won't hurt Colorado too badly or help Cal too much

notables:  South Dakota St wins in the Summit....they're really high in the CRPI, so keep an eye out for them if anything significant happens in the standings in this conference

Friday, January 1, 2016

12/31 recap

Big East:
@Villanova 95, Xavier 64 - margin of victory might matter when it comes to the 1 line, maybe.  Either way, a statement for Nova at least
Providence 81, @Butler 73 - quality road wins are gold
Creighton 80, @St John's 70

MVC:
@Wichita St 67, Drake 47

WCC:
Gonzaga 79, @Santa Clara 77
@St Mary's 85, BYU 74 - the best-case scenario for the WCC probably now involves St Mary's breaking away with Gonzaga and leaving BYU behind

notables:
Over in the CAA, JMU lost at home to Charleston in an early bellweather game for the conference.  Northeastern and Hofstra win...They're high up on the CRPI, so we'll be paying more attention to the CAA than normal