Monday, January 18, 2016

1/18 BRACKET

I've written about this a few times, but this is going to be a legitimate problem for the NCAA:  balance. 

In the top 16, I have 4 Big 12 schools, 4 ACC schools, and 4 B1G schools.  By rule, for each conference, the top 4 teams in the top 16 overall must be in different regions.  You can see the bracketing problem here.  In addition, I have only one west coast school (Oregon) in the top 16.  It is simply impossible to bracket these teams fairly as a result.  You have to following the 4 from 1 in 4 regions rule above all else, and this means the brackets will be unequal.

I added up the overall seed of the top 4 teams in each region below:
East 29
Midwest 33
South 36
West 38

If you need context for these numbers, the east would be historically difficult and the west would be historically easy.  However, every attempt I made to fix the inequality in each region ended up violating the 4 from 1 in 4 rule I mentioned above.  This is as balanced as it can get without massively screwing over a conference.

In addition, individual teams get screwed:  Xavier, West Virginia, Purdue, and Duke in the west, and Oregon doesn't even get to play in the west.  And there's more on the sub-regional level.  The entire 4 line is filled with teams forced to go to Denver or Spokane.  It's a mess, and the NCAA will have to face one of two realities:  either ignore geography and piss off fans in order to maintain fairness in the seedings, or ignore overall seedings and create a heavily biased bracket in order to make as many fans as possible happy.

And this is all assuming the play-in games stay on the 11 line.  If they drop to the 12 line, that's a massive problem in itself.

SOUTH
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (15-1) vs. 16) Houston Baptist (7-7)/Texas Southern (5-11)
8) Colorado (13-4) vs. 9) Florida (11-6)
@Spokane
4) Oregon (13-4) vs. 13) UC-Irvine (13-5)
5) Kentucky (13-4) vs. 12) VCU (13-5)
@Providence
3) Virginia (13-4) vs. 14) Northern Illinois (10-3)
6) Butler (13-4) vs. 11) Arkansas-Little Rock (13-1)
@Brooklyn
2) Maryland (16-2) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (11-6)
7) Utah (12-5) vs. 10) Seton Hall (13-4)

WEST
@St Louis
1) Xavier (16-1) vs. 16) Cal St-Bakersfield (10-5)
8) Wichita St (11-5) vs. 9) Valparaiso (13-3)
@Denver
4) Purdue (15-3) vs. 13) James Madison (13-5)
5) USC (15-3) vs. 12) San Diego St (10-6)
@Providence
3) Duke (14-4) vs. 14) Stony Brook (11-4)
6) Arizona (15-3) vs. 11) St Mary's (14-2)
@Raleigh
2) West Virginia (15-2) vs. 15) Belmont (12-6)
7) Indiana (15-3) vs. 10) Oregon St (10-5)

MIDWEST
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (14-2) vs. 16) Bucknell (7-9)/Mount St Mary's 8-11)
8) Michigan (12-5) vs. 9) Monmouth (13-4)
@Spokane
4) Miami (13-3) vs. 13) Princeton (10-4)
5) Dayton (14-3) vs. 12) Chattanooga (14-3)
@Oklahoma City
3) Texas A&M (15-2) vs. 14) UAB (14-3)
6) Pittsburgh (14-2) vs. 11) UCLA (11-7)/Gonzaga (13-4)
@Des Moines
2) Iowa (14-3) vs. 15) Montana (8-6)
7) Baylor (13-3) vs. 10) California (12-6)

EAST
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (16-2) vs. 16) Hampton (9-7)
8) Notre Dame (12-5) vs. 9) George Washington (14-4)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (13-4) vs. 13) IPFW (13-5)
5) Louisville (14-3) vs. 12) Washington (12-5)
@St Louis
3) Michigan St (16-3) vs. 14) Memphis (12-5)
6) Providence (15-3) vs. 11) St Joseph's (14-3)/Clemson (12-6)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (16-2) vs. 15) North Florida (12-6)
7) South Carolina (15-1) vs. 10) Texas (11-6)



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