Thursday, November 15, 2018

11/14 recap

Signature win of the day:
Michigan 73, @Villanova 46 - this should be a win that holds up by March.  This is worth a seed line or two

Quality wins:
@Indiana 96, Marquette 73 - big win over probable tourney team...useful
@Nebraska 80, Seton Hall 57 - I still don't believe in Nebraska so any big win is good in my book
St Mary's 73, @New Mexico St 58 - a quality road win that'll give this team a fighting chance on the bubble this time

Catastrophic losses:
Radford 63, @Notre Dame 60 - it doesn't take much to fall to 13th or so in the ACC pecking order

11/13 recap

Finally getting a few semi-relevant games.  Alas, most went to script, but there's a couple quality wins mixed in here.

@Tennessee 66, Georgia Tech 53
@LSU 85, Memphis 76
Wisconsin 77, @Xavier 68 - tough to say how good X is, but a road win is a road win these days
@Miami 96, Stephen F Austin 58 - just in case you wanted to check in to see how good the Southland favorite is.  Pass on the conference as a whole
@Charleston 66, Rhode Island 55 - URI is down, but Charleston could have a chance to build a semi-legitimate profile out of the Colonial
@Temple 81, Georgia 77
Harvard 74, @UMass 71
Georgetown 88, @Illinois 80
@New Mexico 90, Iona 83

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

11/12 recap

@North Carolina 90, Stanford 72 - Stanford is out here playing a second true road game already.  Interesting gambit
Buffalo 62, @Southern Illinois 53 - now UB has a second quality road win, and now they're really cooking with gas.  Legitimate at-large contenders now.  Sked slows down a bit for them, before more roadies at Syracuse and Marquette.  Even if they lose both, service holds in the rest of the non-con and they're in really good shape
@Belmont 92, Middle Tennessee 73
Oklahoma 87, @UTSA 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Minnesota 78, Utah 69

Most of the other games were simply service holds by better teams at home over worse teams.  Bonaventure lost on the road to Niagara....A-10 is in trouble...Vermont played at Kansas and lost by 16, which is respectable and may be worth something in March (like getting off the 16 line).

Monday, November 12, 2018

11/11 recap

Florida St 80, @Tulane 69 - we continue to see a residual effect of the past couple years....the occasional true road game for the power conference team
@North Dakota St 82, UC Santa Barbara 63 - Summit favorite > Big West favorite
Southern Miss 74, @SMU 64 - not a good loss for SMU's at-large resume
Florida Atlantic 80, @UCF 79 - and this one is downright catastrophic to UCF's resume
Vanderbilt 82, @USC 78 - again, true road wins matter

Sunday, November 11, 2018

11/10 recap

Light day on true impact games, but some notable results in the mid-major ranks:

Charleston 77, @Western Carolina 74 - matters more than you think.  True road win for CAA favorite
@Charlotte 66, Oklahoma St 64
@Xavier 91, Evansville 85
Fairfield 60, @Bucknell 58 - kind of disappointing for the Patriot favorite
@UT-Arlington 74, Northern Iowa 65
@Belmont 100, Illinois St 89
@Murray St 73, Wright St 54 - OVC favorite > Horizon favorite
Idaho St 72, @Boise St 70
Loyola Marymount 61, @UNLV 50 - not an optimal day for the MWC

Saturday, November 10, 2018

11/9 recap

Signature wins:
Buffalo 99, @West Virginia 94 (OT) - Buffalo gets a win that they have sorely missed the past couple of years.  Their profile was always a signature win away from being at-large worthy.  They're there now

@Auburn 88, Washington 66 - this win should have a reasonable amount of value down the road
@Kentucky 71, Southern Illinois 59 - mid-table MVC teams hangs around with UK.  Margin of victory is a thing now, remember
Wichita St 83, @Providence 80 - losing these home games are bad for the resume; this is one way for WSU to crawl back to the bubble discussion
@Iowa St 76, Missouri 59 - we'll see if either teams matters in March
Longwood 63, @Richmond 58 - A-10 is having a really bad start to this year
@St Joseph's 79, Old Dominion 64 - finally, an A-10 team doing something noteworthy.  Critical quality win chance by the boards for ODU
Texas 73, Arkansas 71 (OT)

Dumb losses:
Stony Brook 83, @South Carolina 81
Northeastern 81, @Harvard 71 - that's a bit of a ding for a team that's favored in the Ivy
Furman 60, Loyola(Chi) 58 - wait, what?
UC Irvine 74, @Texas A&M 73
Yale 76, California 59

Road wins are never trivial:
North Carolina 116, @Elon 67
Stanford 72, @UNC Wilmington 59
Oklahoma 91, @UTRGV 76

Friday, November 9, 2018

11/8 recap

Siena 69, @George Washington 61 - yeah, we're scraping the bottom of the barrel if we're leading off with this game.  In fact, there doesn't appear to be any meaningful results here.  Let's skip today, shall we?

Thursday, November 8, 2018

11/7 recap

Light night.

Ohio St 64, @Cincinnati 56 - road wins are never trivial.  Long way to go before we know exactly what this means for the two teams, but for now, a quality road win is in the bank for OSU
Bucknell 88, @St Bonaventure 85 - not a good start to the year for the A-10
@TCU 66, Cal St-Bakersfield 61 - tighter score than it needed to be

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

11/6 recap

And thusly begins the daily recaps.  A short quick bite-size version of last night's results that matter.

Kansas 92, Michigan St 87
Duke 118, Kentucky 84 - truth is, all 4 of these teams will have so many big games that I'm not going to make a big deal about these results, for now.  Could be useful in jumping up or down a seed line in March, but all these teams are expected around the top couple of lines

@Nevada 86, BYU 70 - one mystery with the new metrics will be how home wins over quality opponents will be handled.  Will they be marginalized?
North Carolina 78, @Wofford 67 - this goes in the book as a true road win, which matters
@Florida St 81, Florida 60
@Washington 73, WKU 55
Louisiana Tech 71, @Wichita St 58 - time to recalibrate Wichita's expectations this year
Texas Southern 72, @Baylor 69 - oof

interesting mid-major scores of the night:
@Buffalo 82, St Francis(PA) 67 - MAC favorite > NEC favorite
@UCF 84, Rider 70 - AAC at large contender > MAAC favorite
@South Dakota St 79, Grand Canyon 74 - Summit favorite > WAC favorite
@New Mexico St 73, North Dakota St 56

quick hits:
Worries for the A-10?  George Washington and George Mason lose home games to Penn and Stony Brook...Arizona St needed 2OT to beat CS-Fullerton at home...UMBC gets curb stomped on the road at Marquette; back to reality there

Friday, November 2, 2018

Preseason bracket breakdown

Let's chat briefly about the preseason bracket I put up.

Everyone says it these days:  teams get bids, not conferences.  True.  However, schedule is increasing in importance, and your conference has a lot to do with your schedule.  Therefore, every year, I always instruct the reader to do the following with my preseason bracket:  don't pay attention to where specific teams are seeded.  I'm bound to be off on some of them.  I know I will.

What do I think you need to pay attention to?  How well a conference is represented, and seeded, in the bracket.  My opinion on the strength of a conference will be represented by the seedings.  These opinions matter because the conferences will shape a significant portion of everyone's at-large profile.  Therefore I wouldn't worry about where your specific team is seeded; look more at your overall conference position.

With that in mind, let's whip around conference by conference:

ACC:  I have 9 teams in.  Seeds of 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, and 12.  I feel like with 3 top tier teams who are vulnerable, I expect many teams in the middle of the conference to pick off signature wins.  A typical year for the conference awaits.

B1G:  7 teams in.  I expect a rebound year.  I have a typical distribution (a 2 seed, a couple 4 seeds, and the rest scattered throughout the bracket).  I expect the identify of teams 4-7 to be very fluid throughout the year.

SEC:  7 teams in.  Like the B1G, I have a pretty even distribution of teams throughout the bracket, and I also expect the middle of this conference to be in a very fluid state.

Big 10:  6 teams in.  Might be the strongest conference top to bottom.  It's just so tough to put 70% of your conference in the field, though.  I expect the teams that do make it to be solidly in, though.  Looking back to last year's bubble, I expect this year's bubble teams to be in a bit stronger position overall.

Big East:  5 teams in.  I'm not quite sure what to do with them.  I found trouble identifying a second team I feel really good about getting a very high seed.  Will there be enough signature win chances in the conference?  They could easily slide down to 4 teams if things break the wrong way.

Pac-12:  4 teams in.  I don't trust this conference.  At all.

A-10:  2 teams in.  Champ on the 8 line.  Pretty standard year.

MWC:  2 teams in.  Nevada up to the 5 line.  This should be the year the conference rallies a bit.  I still don't think the bottom half is strong enough; Nevada's computer profile will get tanked a bit.

WCC:  1 team in.  St Mary's falls into the abyss; Gonzaga is alone.  BYU could make it close.

MVC:  1 team in.  Strong computer numbers last year; I expect it to continue this year.  Think they can get a second team close to the field.

everyone else:  Western Kentucky is my official bandwagon pick for at-large bid candidacy this year.  You can also talk me into Charleston, if the CAA has a good year, and Buffalo.

Preseason S-CURVE

A more full detail breakdown is coming soon, but wanted to get the official preseason stuff up for posterity.

The 1 line:  Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Kentucky, Michigan St, Villanova, West Virginia
The 3 line:  North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Kansas St
The 4 line:  Syracuse, Auburn, Michigan, Purdue
The 5 line:  Cincinnati, Florida St, Nevada, Florida
The 6 line:  Virginia Tech, Indiana, Marquette, UCLA
The 7 line:  Texas, Butler, Clemson, LSU
The 8 line:  Loyola(Chi), Wisconsin, TCU, St Louis
The 9 line:  Washington, North Carolina St, Iowa St, St John's
The 10 line:  Central Florida, San Diego St, Western Kentucky, Arizona
The 11 line:  Mississippi St, Nebraska, St Joseph's, Temple
The 12 line:  Providence, Miami, Minnesota, Alabama, Charleston, Buffalo
The 13 line:  Harvard, Iona, South Dakota St, New Mexico St
The 14 line:  Georgia St, Murray St, UC-Santa Barbara, Wofford
The 15 line:  Vermont, Wright St, Bucknell, Lipscomb
The 16 line:  Montana, Radford, Stephen F Austin, St Francis (PA), North Carolina Central, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Mississippi St
St Joseph's

Last 4 in:

Last 4 out:
Illinois St
New Mexico

Next 4 out:
Wichita St

Break it down!:
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 5
Pac-12 4
A-10 2