RIP.
One last screw you from BYU as they force a B1G rematch in round 2 over in the west regional.
MIDWEST 34
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Northern Kentucky
8) Houston vs. 9) Marquette
@Sacramento
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Auburn vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) Belmont
6) BYU vs. 11) Indiana
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Winthrop
7) Illinois vs. 10) East Tennessee St
EAST 36
@Cleveland
1) Dayton vs. 16) Prairie View A&M/North Carolina Central
8) Providence vs. 9) Florida
@Tampa
4) Louisville vs. 13) Akron
5) West Virginia vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Bradley
6) Michigan vs. 11) Richmond/North Carolina St
@Albany
2) Villanova vs. 15) North Dakota St
7) Virginia vs. 10) Utah St
WEST 34
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Robert Morris/Siena
8) USC vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Vermont
@Cleveland
3) Michigan St vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Iowa vs. 11) Northern Iowa/Wichita St
@Sacramento
2) San Diego St vs. 15) Eastern Washington
7) Colorado vs. 10) Rutgers
SOUTH 32
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Boston U
8) LSU vs. 9) Arizona
@Greensboro
4) Maryland vs. 13) Liberty
5) Butler vs. 12) Cincinnati
@Albany
3) Seton Hall vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Penn St vs. 11) Texas Tech
@Tampa
2) Florida St vs. 15) UALR
7) St Mary's vs. 10) Arizona St
Friday, March 13, 2020
Final SEED LIST
This officially goes unchanged after one final seed scrub from me.
Weird : Stanford dropped out with a loss in a tournament that ended up cancelled. Makes you wonder, in a hypothetical world where the NCAA tournament was back on, if those conference tournaments would actually count. I could actually see the NCAA throwing out all conference tourney results for all teams, inviting all regular season champions and proceeding. If the NCAA does end up releasing a seed list, I'd like to see them go that route.
In that scenario, I'd change:
- SDSU gets their 1 seed back, Dayton back to a 2
- Utah St drops out of the field, replaced by UCLA (the SDSU win served as rocket fuel for its resume)
- UNI probably leaps a seed line or so. UNI getting the autobid back actually bumps Stanford back in the field as a result.
- St Mary's probably loses a seed line to Houston by having their BYU win erased
- the obvious changes at the bottom with the likes of Winthrop, Boston U, etc replaced
- Colorado gets a seed back (PSU drops one amid their horrid non-con SoS)
As is, the previous seed list gets frozen in place.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: Michigan, BYU, Iowa, Penn St
The 7 line: Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, St Mary's
The 8 line: Houston, Providence, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Winthrop, Eastern Washington, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line: Boston U, Northern Kentucky, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Wichita St
Last 4 out:
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Stanford
Xavier
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
Weird : Stanford dropped out with a loss in a tournament that ended up cancelled. Makes you wonder, in a hypothetical world where the NCAA tournament was back on, if those conference tournaments would actually count. I could actually see the NCAA throwing out all conference tourney results for all teams, inviting all regular season champions and proceeding. If the NCAA does end up releasing a seed list, I'd like to see them go that route.
In that scenario, I'd change:
- SDSU gets their 1 seed back, Dayton back to a 2
- Utah St drops out of the field, replaced by UCLA (the SDSU win served as rocket fuel for its resume)
- UNI probably leaps a seed line or so. UNI getting the autobid back actually bumps Stanford back in the field as a result.
- St Mary's probably loses a seed line to Houston by having their BYU win erased
- the obvious changes at the bottom with the likes of Winthrop, Boston U, etc replaced
- Colorado gets a seed back (PSU drops one amid their horrid non-con SoS)
As is, the previous seed list gets frozen in place.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: Michigan, BYU, Iowa, Penn St
The 7 line: Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, St Mary's
The 8 line: Houston, Providence, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Winthrop, Eastern Washington, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line: Boston U, Northern Kentucky, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Wichita St
Last 4 out:
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Stanford
Xavier
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
Thursday, March 12, 2020
3/12 SEED LIST
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: Michigan, BYU, Iowa, Penn St
The 7 line: Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, St Mary's
The 8 line: Houston, Providence, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Winthrop, Eastern Washington, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line: Boston U, Northern Kentucky, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Wichita St
Last 4 out:
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Stanford
Xavier
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: Michigan, BYU, Iowa, Penn St
The 7 line: Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, St Mary's
The 8 line: Houston, Providence, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Winthrop, Eastern Washington, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line: Boston U, Northern Kentucky, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Wichita St
Last 4 out:
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Stanford
Xavier
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
3/11 recap
We'll continue to analyze games under the "everything is normal" theory, although we know they aren't. My guess is we're day-by-day now, and we'll play Thursday. A little different from the NBA where teams travel daily. Every team playing this week is likely already in place, so I could see most tournaments playing things out even if the NCAAs are cancelled early.
Patriot finals:
Boston 64, Colgate 61
ACC 2nd round:
Clemson 69, Miami 64
NC State 73, Pitt 58 - with other bubble action, NC State might be home free now
Notre Dame 80, BC 58
Syracuse 81, UNC 53
Pac-12 1st round:
Oregon St 71, Utah 69
Arizona 77, Washington 70
California 63, Stanford 51 - what a dumb loss
Washington St 82, Colorado 68 - that'll be worth a seed line
B1G 1st round:
Minnesota 74, Northwestern 57
Indiana 89, Nebraska 64 - that should do it for Indiana
Big East 1st round:
St John's 75, Georgetown 62
DePaul 71, Xavier 67 - oh no Xavier. Oh no. I just want to point out I was first on Xavier. Not bragging, but I'm totally bragging.
SEC 1st round:
Georgia 81, Ole Miss 63
Arkansas 86, Vanderbilt 73 - first of probably 3 Arkansas needs
Big 12 1st round:
Oklahoma St 72, Iowa St 71
Kansas St 53, TCU 49
A-10 1st round:
George Mason 77, St Joseph's 70
Fordham 72, George Washington 52
CUSA 1st round:
FAU 66, Old Dominion 56
FIU 85, Rice 76
UAB 74, UTSA 69
Marshall 86, UTEP 78
Sun Belt quarters:
Georgia Southern 81, Georgia St 62
Texas St 85, Appalachian St 68
Big Sky 1st round:
Sacramento St 62, Weber St 54
Southern Utah 75, Idaho 69
Idaho St 64, Northern Arizona 62
Southland 1st round:
Northwestern St 79, Texas A&M-CC 62
Lamar 80, McNeese St 59
MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 92, Delaware St 75
NC A&T 86, Howard 77
MAAC quarters:
Siena 63, Manhattan 49
St Peter's 56, Iona 54
Patriot finals:
Boston 64, Colgate 61
ACC 2nd round:
Clemson 69, Miami 64
NC State 73, Pitt 58 - with other bubble action, NC State might be home free now
Notre Dame 80, BC 58
Syracuse 81, UNC 53
Pac-12 1st round:
Oregon St 71, Utah 69
Arizona 77, Washington 70
California 63, Stanford 51 - what a dumb loss
Washington St 82, Colorado 68 - that'll be worth a seed line
B1G 1st round:
Minnesota 74, Northwestern 57
Indiana 89, Nebraska 64 - that should do it for Indiana
Big East 1st round:
St John's 75, Georgetown 62
DePaul 71, Xavier 67 - oh no Xavier. Oh no. I just want to point out I was first on Xavier. Not bragging, but I'm totally bragging.
SEC 1st round:
Georgia 81, Ole Miss 63
Arkansas 86, Vanderbilt 73 - first of probably 3 Arkansas needs
Big 12 1st round:
Oklahoma St 72, Iowa St 71
Kansas St 53, TCU 49
A-10 1st round:
George Mason 77, St Joseph's 70
Fordham 72, George Washington 52
CUSA 1st round:
FAU 66, Old Dominion 56
FIU 85, Rice 76
UAB 74, UTSA 69
Marshall 86, UTEP 78
Sun Belt quarters:
Georgia Southern 81, Georgia St 62
Texas St 85, Appalachian St 68
Big Sky 1st round:
Sacramento St 62, Weber St 54
Southern Utah 75, Idaho 69
Idaho St 64, Northern Arizona 62
Southland 1st round:
Northwestern St 79, Texas A&M-CC 62
Lamar 80, McNeese St 59
MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 92, Delaware St 75
NC A&T 86, Howard 77
MAAC quarters:
Siena 63, Manhattan 49
St Peter's 56, Iona 54
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
3/10 recap
WCC final:
Gonzaga 84, St Mary's 66
CAA final:
Hofstra 70, Northeastern 61
Horizon final:
Northern Kentucky 71, UIC 62
NEC final:
Robert Morris 77, St Francis(PA) 67
Summit final:
North Dakota St 89, North Dakota 53
ACC 1st round:
Pittsburgh 81, Wake Forest 72
North Carolina 78, Virginia Tech 58
A-East semis:
Hartford 64, Stony Brook 58
Vermont 81, UMBC 74
MAAC 1st round:
Manhattan 61, Fairfield 43
Iona 70, Canisius 60
Niagara 56, Marist 54
MEAC 1st round:
Delaware St 68, UMES 64
Howard 70, South Carolina St 63
SWAC quarters:
Prairie View A&M 82, Alabama A&M 60
Texas Southern 75, Grambling 62
Southern 67, Alabama St 53
Jackson St 69, Alcorn St 52
Gonzaga 84, St Mary's 66
CAA final:
Hofstra 70, Northeastern 61
Horizon final:
Northern Kentucky 71, UIC 62
NEC final:
Robert Morris 77, St Francis(PA) 67
Summit final:
North Dakota St 89, North Dakota 53
ACC 1st round:
Pittsburgh 81, Wake Forest 72
North Carolina 78, Virginia Tech 58
A-East semis:
Hartford 64, Stony Brook 58
Vermont 81, UMBC 74
MAAC 1st round:
Manhattan 61, Fairfield 43
Iona 70, Canisius 60
Niagara 56, Marist 54
MEAC 1st round:
Delaware St 68, UMES 64
Howard 70, South Carolina St 63
SWAC quarters:
Prairie View A&M 82, Alabama A&M 60
Texas Southern 75, Grambling 62
Southern 67, Alabama St 53
Jackson St 69, Alcorn St 52
3/10 SEED LIST
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: Colorado, Michigan, BYU, Iowa
The 7 line: Penn St, Virginia, Illinois, St Mary's
The 8 line: Houston, Providence, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Stanford
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Colgate, Hofstra
The 15 line: UC-Irvine, Winthrop, Eastern Washington, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Northern Kentucky, Arkansas-Little Rock, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Stanford
Last 4 out:
Xavier
Wichita St
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: Colorado, Michigan, BYU, Iowa
The 7 line: Penn St, Virginia, Illinois, St Mary's
The 8 line: Houston, Providence, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Stanford
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Colgate, Hofstra
The 15 line: UC-Irvine, Winthrop, Eastern Washington, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Northern Kentucky, Arkansas-Little Rock, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Stanford
Last 4 out:
Xavier
Wichita St
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
3/9 recap
SoCon final:
East Tennessee St 72, Wofford 58
WCC semis:
Gonzaga 81, San Francisco 77
St Mary's 51, BYU 50
CAA semis:
Hofstra 75, Delaware 61
Northeastern 68, Elon 60
Horizon semis:
UIC 73, Wright St 56 - what
Northern Kentucky 80, Green Bay 69
Summit semis:
North Dakota St 75, Oral Roberts 69
North Dakota 73, IPFW 56
Fun Belt 2nd round:
Appalachian St 70, Coastal Carolina 65
Georgia Southern 82, Louisiana 81
MAC 1st round:
Kent St 86, Eastern Michigan 76
Toledo 76, Western Michigan 73
Ohio 85, Central Michigan 65
Miami(OH) 85, Buffalo 79
East Tennessee St 72, Wofford 58
WCC semis:
Gonzaga 81, San Francisco 77
St Mary's 51, BYU 50
CAA semis:
Hofstra 75, Delaware 61
Northeastern 68, Elon 60
Horizon semis:
UIC 73, Wright St 56 - what
Northern Kentucky 80, Green Bay 69
Summit semis:
North Dakota St 75, Oral Roberts 69
North Dakota 73, IPFW 56
Fun Belt 2nd round:
Appalachian St 70, Coastal Carolina 65
Georgia Southern 82, Louisiana 81
MAC 1st round:
Kent St 86, Eastern Michigan 76
Toledo 76, Western Michigan 73
Ohio 85, Central Michigan 65
Miami(OH) 85, Buffalo 79
Sunday, March 8, 2020
3/9 BRACKET
MIDWEST 34
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
8) LSU vs. 9) Marquette
@Sacramento
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Auburn vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) Bradley
6) BYU vs. 11) Indiana
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Eastern Washington
7) Houston vs. 10) Rutgers
EAST 36
@Cleveland
1) Dayton vs. 16) Arkansas-Little Rock
8) Providence vs. 9) Florida
@Tampa
4) Louisville vs. 13) Akron
5) West Virginia vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Belmont
6) Michigan vs. 11) Richmond/Stanford
@Albany
2) Villanova vs. 15) Wright St
7) Penn St vs. 10) Utah St
WEST 34
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota St
8) USC vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Vermont
@Cleveland
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Colorado vs. 11) North Carolina St/Northern Iowa
@Sacramento
2) San Diego St vs. 15) UC-Irvine
7) Virginia vs. 10) Arizona St
SOUTH 32
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Siena/North Carolina Central
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Arizona
@Greensboro
4) Maryland vs. 13) Liberty
5) Butler vs. 12) Cincinnati
@Albany
3) Seton Hall vs. 14) Colgate
6) Iowa vs. 11) Texas Tech
@Tampa
2) Florida St vs. 15) Winthrop
7) Illinois vs. 10) East Tennessee St
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
8) LSU vs. 9) Marquette
@Sacramento
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Auburn vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) Bradley
6) BYU vs. 11) Indiana
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Eastern Washington
7) Houston vs. 10) Rutgers
EAST 36
@Cleveland
1) Dayton vs. 16) Arkansas-Little Rock
8) Providence vs. 9) Florida
@Tampa
4) Louisville vs. 13) Akron
5) West Virginia vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Belmont
6) Michigan vs. 11) Richmond/Stanford
@Albany
2) Villanova vs. 15) Wright St
7) Penn St vs. 10) Utah St
WEST 34
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota St
8) USC vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Vermont
@Cleveland
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Colorado vs. 11) North Carolina St/Northern Iowa
@Sacramento
2) San Diego St vs. 15) UC-Irvine
7) Virginia vs. 10) Arizona St
SOUTH 32
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Siena/North Carolina Central
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Arizona
@Greensboro
4) Maryland vs. 13) Liberty
5) Butler vs. 12) Cincinnati
@Albany
3) Seton Hall vs. 14) Colgate
6) Iowa vs. 11) Texas Tech
@Tampa
2) Florida St vs. 15) Winthrop
7) Illinois vs. 10) East Tennessee St
3/9 SEED LIST
- Kansas will be #1 overall for the next week, and I'm struggling to come up with scenarios where Baylor loses #2 overall.
- Gonzaga doesn't have the resume for the 1 line, really. I would strongly suggest winning out (but it just may be a case of SDSU and Gonzaga swapping lines if it goes down).
- SDSU has the better resume. I believe the committee selects Dayton today. They have the backup of knowing SDSU in Los Angeles might be the better draw anyways. The committee is human. They're not supposed to consider that, but it'll be in the back of their mind.
- The 2-3-4 lines are a mess. #6 (Nova) to #13 (Maryland) are very tightly packed, and expect the order to be closely aligned with Championship Week results.
- From the Committee is Human dept: Outright conferencetitles shouldn't matter, but FSU picking off Louisville's half of the title might actually matter.
- Duke sticking as the last 2 for now. Conviction is low they can hold it without winning the ACCT. Have to imagine the 2 line will be filled up with Big East champ/ACC champ/B1G champ, if the right teams win.
- A really, really good team, with the resume for a 2 seed, will get stuck on the 4 line. It was Maryland, barely over Kentucky, this time (UK bumped up an extra spot with a H2H result on MSU).
- The 5-7 lines are also very tightly packed. I've been adjusting my BYU seed, do they drop with a loss to Gonzaga? They might actually. The lack of depth in their resume is an issue, especially surrounded by a bunch of B1G teams fattened up on Q1 games. I think the eye test comes into play there.
- Two major adjustments in seed with Arizona and Texas Tech. I've believed that NET might matter when it comes to seeding (but not selection). I still think they might overseed teams based on NET, but it's to the point where the resume for both teams required a massive adjustment.
- Providence's seed makes me want to throw up, but it's what I think they'll do.
- I don't feel like dissecting the bubble too much right now. It'll change. It always does. All that matters is if you're in the picture or not. Right now, the picture is East Tennessee St through the last 8 out. I feel relatively confident calling everyone above a lock (don't make me regret it, 9 line).
- I don't see a path forward for the following teams, but they might be able to make it close: Oklahoma St, St John's, Oregon St, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Clemson, Tulsa, UConn, Rhode Island, St Louis. We'll re-evaluate as we go along.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: BYU, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa
The 7 line: Penn St, Virginia, Illinois, Houston
The 8 line: Providence, St Mary's, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Stanford
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Colgate, Hofstra
The 15 line: UC-Irvine, Wright St, Winthrop, Eastern Washington
The 16 line: North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Stanford
Last 4 out:
Xavier
Wichita St
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 6
Pac-12 6
Big 12 5
ACC 5
SEC 4
WCC 3
A-10 2
AAC 2
MWC 2
MVC 2
- Gonzaga doesn't have the resume for the 1 line, really. I would strongly suggest winning out (but it just may be a case of SDSU and Gonzaga swapping lines if it goes down).
- SDSU has the better resume. I believe the committee selects Dayton today. They have the backup of knowing SDSU in Los Angeles might be the better draw anyways. The committee is human. They're not supposed to consider that, but it'll be in the back of their mind.
- The 2-3-4 lines are a mess. #6 (Nova) to #13 (Maryland) are very tightly packed, and expect the order to be closely aligned with Championship Week results.
- From the Committee is Human dept: Outright conferencetitles shouldn't matter, but FSU picking off Louisville's half of the title might actually matter.
- Duke sticking as the last 2 for now. Conviction is low they can hold it without winning the ACCT. Have to imagine the 2 line will be filled up with Big East champ/ACC champ/B1G champ, if the right teams win.
- A really, really good team, with the resume for a 2 seed, will get stuck on the 4 line. It was Maryland, barely over Kentucky, this time (UK bumped up an extra spot with a H2H result on MSU).
- The 5-7 lines are also very tightly packed. I've been adjusting my BYU seed, do they drop with a loss to Gonzaga? They might actually. The lack of depth in their resume is an issue, especially surrounded by a bunch of B1G teams fattened up on Q1 games. I think the eye test comes into play there.
- Two major adjustments in seed with Arizona and Texas Tech. I've believed that NET might matter when it comes to seeding (but not selection). I still think they might overseed teams based on NET, but it's to the point where the resume for both teams required a massive adjustment.
- Providence's seed makes me want to throw up, but it's what I think they'll do.
- I don't feel like dissecting the bubble too much right now. It'll change. It always does. All that matters is if you're in the picture or not. Right now, the picture is East Tennessee St through the last 8 out. I feel relatively confident calling everyone above a lock (don't make me regret it, 9 line).
- I don't see a path forward for the following teams, but they might be able to make it close: Oklahoma St, St John's, Oregon St, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Clemson, Tulsa, UConn, Rhode Island, St Louis. We'll re-evaluate as we go along.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line: San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line: Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line: Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line: Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line: BYU, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa
The 7 line: Penn St, Virginia, Illinois, Houston
The 8 line: Providence, St Mary's, LSU, USC
The 9 line: Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Stanford
The 12 line: Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line: Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line: Belmont, Bradley, Colgate, Hofstra
The 15 line: UC-Irvine, Wright St, Winthrop, Eastern Washington
The 16 line: North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Stanford
Last 4 out:
Xavier
Wichita St
UCLA
*Cincinnati
Purdue
Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin
Texas
Memphis
Arkansas
Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 6
Pac-12 6
Big 12 5
ACC 5
SEC 4
WCC 3
A-10 2
AAC 2
MWC 2
MVC 2
3/8 recap
@Maryland 83, Michigan 70
@Michigan St 80, Ohio St 69
@Illinois 78, Iowa 76 - all these B1G teams playing for seeding. Booooooring
@Minnesota 107, Nebraska 75
@Houston 64, Memphis 57
UConn 80, @Tulane 76
@Wichita St 79, Tulsa 57
MVC finals:
Bradley 80, Valparaiso 66
A-Sun finals:
Liberty 73, Lipscomb 57
Big South finals:
Winthrop 76, Hampton 68
SoCon semis:
East Tennessee St 97, Western Carolina 75
Wofford 72, Chattanooga 70
Patriot semis:
Boston U 64, Bucknell 61
Colgate 89, Lafayette 64
CAA quarters:
Hofstra 61, Drexel 43
Delaware 79, Charleston 67
Elon 68, William & Mary 63
Northeastern 72, Towson 62
Summit quarters:
Oral Roberts 79, Omaha 52
North Dakota 74, South Dakota 71
@Michigan St 80, Ohio St 69
@Illinois 78, Iowa 76 - all these B1G teams playing for seeding. Booooooring
@Minnesota 107, Nebraska 75
@Houston 64, Memphis 57
UConn 80, @Tulane 76
@Wichita St 79, Tulsa 57
MVC finals:
Bradley 80, Valparaiso 66
A-Sun finals:
Liberty 73, Lipscomb 57
Big South finals:
Winthrop 76, Hampton 68
SoCon semis:
East Tennessee St 97, Western Carolina 75
Wofford 72, Chattanooga 70
Patriot semis:
Boston U 64, Bucknell 61
Colgate 89, Lafayette 64
CAA quarters:
Hofstra 61, Drexel 43
Delaware 79, Charleston 67
Elon 68, William & Mary 63
Northeastern 72, Towson 62
Summit quarters:
Oral Roberts 79, Omaha 52
North Dakota 74, South Dakota 71
3/7 recap
No bracket this morning, today's a day for scrubbing
@Dayton 76, George Washington 51
Rhode Island 64, @UMass 63 - road wins are never trivial
@St Louis 72, St Bonaventure 49 - I think StL is dead, but just in case
@Florida St 80, Boston College 62
@Virginia 57, Louisville 54 - harsh, but that might bury UL on the 4 line
@Duke 89, North Carolina 76
@Notre Dame 64, Virginia Tech 56
@Miami 69, Syracuse 65 (OT)
@Cincinnati 64, Temple 63 - good lord that was almost really, really stupid, Cincy
Kansas 66, @Texas Tech 62 - things are officially dicey for TTU now. I would suggest beating Texas just in case
@West Virginia 76, Baylor 64 - signature win. Now, WVU's powerful SoS comes into play and they might get overseeded again
Oklahoma St 81, @Texas 59 - way to erase most of the gains you made the last month. Needs to beat TTU and maybe Kansas too
Oklahoma 78, @TCU 76
@Creighton 77, Seton Hall 60
Villanova 70, @Georgetown 69 - I will say....I'm not sure in what order to have all these Big East teams now
@St John's 88, Marquette 86 - Marquette is trying to test just how close they can get to the bubble from a strong position and still be safe
@Providence 93, DePaul 55
Butler 72, @Xavier 71 - c'mon people join me on the anti-Xavier bandwagon
@Northwestern 80, Penn St 69 - oh no
Wisconsin 60, @Indiana 56
Rutgers 71, @Purdue 68 (OT) - it's still just Purdue, but any road win counts as a massive one for Rutgers. Should be home free
@Harvard 83, Yale 69 - that's the end of that at-large conversation
@Oregon 80, Stanford 67
@Utah 74, Colorado 72 (OT) - thanks for making me look dumb Colorado
@USC 54, UCLA 52
@Oregon St 74, Cal 56
@Arizona St 83, Washington St 74
Washington 69, @Arizona 63 - go figure, Washington
Kentucky 71, @Florida 70 - quality road win, may be worth a seed line
Auburn 85, @Tennessee 63
@Vanderbilt 83, South Carolina 74 - that's one way to kill a bubble resume
@LSU 94, Georgia 64
@Missouri 69, Alabama 50 - and that's another way
@Texas A&M 77, Arkansas 69 - and that's yet another way. I don't see a path forward for any of these teams without going to the final, and even that's dicey
@Mississippi St 69, Ole Miss 44 - MSU survives
MWC finals:
Utah St 59, San Diego St 56 - everyone knows what this does to USU. SDSU still has a better overall resume than Dayton, I think, but I think eye test might take over and send Dayton to the 1 line
OVC finals:
Belmont 76, Murray St 75
WCC quarters:
San Francisco 72, Pacific 54
St Mary's 89, Pepperdine 82 (2OT) - yiiiiiiiiikes
SoCon quarters:
Western Carolina 70, Mercer 56
Wofford 77, Furman 68 - oh no
Chattanooga 78, UNC Greensboro 68 - oh no. Listen up NIT. Furman and UNCG. Put them in your field you cowards
East Tennessee St 70, VMI 57 - a bad, bad day for ETSU. Everyone remaining now represents a bad loss, plus they lose access to another quad 2 win as a seed booster
MVC semis:
Bradley 76, Drake 66
Valparaiso 89, Missouri St 82
NEC semis:
St Francis(PA) 84, Sacred Heart 72
Robert Morris 86, LIU Brooklyn 66
A-East quarters:
Vermont 61, Maine 50
Stony Brook 76, Albany 73
Hartford 89, UMass Lowell 75
UMBC 73, New Hampshire 67
Summit quarters:
North Dakota St 71, Denver 69
IPFW 77, South Dakota St 74
CAA 1st round:
Drexel 66, UNC Wilmington 55
Elon 63, James Madison 61
Fun Belt 1st round:
Louisiana 73, Arkansas St 66
Coastal Carolina 63, UT Arlington 62
@Dayton 76, George Washington 51
Rhode Island 64, @UMass 63 - road wins are never trivial
@St Louis 72, St Bonaventure 49 - I think StL is dead, but just in case
@Florida St 80, Boston College 62
@Virginia 57, Louisville 54 - harsh, but that might bury UL on the 4 line
@Duke 89, North Carolina 76
@Notre Dame 64, Virginia Tech 56
@Miami 69, Syracuse 65 (OT)
@Cincinnati 64, Temple 63 - good lord that was almost really, really stupid, Cincy
Kansas 66, @Texas Tech 62 - things are officially dicey for TTU now. I would suggest beating Texas just in case
@West Virginia 76, Baylor 64 - signature win. Now, WVU's powerful SoS comes into play and they might get overseeded again
Oklahoma St 81, @Texas 59 - way to erase most of the gains you made the last month. Needs to beat TTU and maybe Kansas too
Oklahoma 78, @TCU 76
@Creighton 77, Seton Hall 60
Villanova 70, @Georgetown 69 - I will say....I'm not sure in what order to have all these Big East teams now
@St John's 88, Marquette 86 - Marquette is trying to test just how close they can get to the bubble from a strong position and still be safe
@Providence 93, DePaul 55
Butler 72, @Xavier 71 - c'mon people join me on the anti-Xavier bandwagon
@Northwestern 80, Penn St 69 - oh no
Wisconsin 60, @Indiana 56
Rutgers 71, @Purdue 68 (OT) - it's still just Purdue, but any road win counts as a massive one for Rutgers. Should be home free
@Harvard 83, Yale 69 - that's the end of that at-large conversation
@Oregon 80, Stanford 67
@Utah 74, Colorado 72 (OT) - thanks for making me look dumb Colorado
@USC 54, UCLA 52
@Oregon St 74, Cal 56
@Arizona St 83, Washington St 74
Washington 69, @Arizona 63 - go figure, Washington
Kentucky 71, @Florida 70 - quality road win, may be worth a seed line
Auburn 85, @Tennessee 63
@Vanderbilt 83, South Carolina 74 - that's one way to kill a bubble resume
@LSU 94, Georgia 64
@Missouri 69, Alabama 50 - and that's another way
@Texas A&M 77, Arkansas 69 - and that's yet another way. I don't see a path forward for any of these teams without going to the final, and even that's dicey
@Mississippi St 69, Ole Miss 44 - MSU survives
MWC finals:
Utah St 59, San Diego St 56 - everyone knows what this does to USU. SDSU still has a better overall resume than Dayton, I think, but I think eye test might take over and send Dayton to the 1 line
OVC finals:
Belmont 76, Murray St 75
WCC quarters:
San Francisco 72, Pacific 54
St Mary's 89, Pepperdine 82 (2OT) - yiiiiiiiiikes
SoCon quarters:
Western Carolina 70, Mercer 56
Wofford 77, Furman 68 - oh no
Chattanooga 78, UNC Greensboro 68 - oh no. Listen up NIT. Furman and UNCG. Put them in your field you cowards
East Tennessee St 70, VMI 57 - a bad, bad day for ETSU. Everyone remaining now represents a bad loss, plus they lose access to another quad 2 win as a seed booster
MVC semis:
Bradley 76, Drake 66
Valparaiso 89, Missouri St 82
NEC semis:
St Francis(PA) 84, Sacred Heart 72
Robert Morris 86, LIU Brooklyn 66
A-East quarters:
Vermont 61, Maine 50
Stony Brook 76, Albany 73
Hartford 89, UMass Lowell 75
UMBC 73, New Hampshire 67
Summit quarters:
North Dakota St 71, Denver 69
IPFW 77, South Dakota St 74
CAA 1st round:
Drexel 66, UNC Wilmington 55
Elon 63, James Madison 61
Fun Belt 1st round:
Louisiana 73, Arkansas St 66
Coastal Carolina 63, UT Arlington 62
Friday, March 6, 2020
3/7 SEED LIST
I'm looking in between #16 (Ohio St) and #25 (Penn St ). That's a gaggle of 10 teams that I can't quite figure out the order on. You can put them in almost any order and I wouldn't argue. On further review, I rose Wisky, and dropped Iowa and PSU (SoS issues), but they're all pretty tightly bunched. I think the BTT will solve a lot of these problems.
A little bit of tinkering elsewhere. The 8 and 9 lines feel weak to me, but teams should win their way into those lines this last week.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Duke
The 3 line: Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line: Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line: Colorado, Auburn, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 6 line: Butler, Iowa, West Virginia, BYU
The 7 line: Penn St, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line: Illinois, St Mary's, Florida, Texas Tech
The 9 line: Indiana, Houston, USC, LSU
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, North Carolina St, Rutgers, Arizona St
The 11 line: Providence, Oklahoma, Richmond, UCLA, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line: Liberty, Tulsa, Stephen F Austin, Yale
The 13 line: Akron, North Texas, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line: Belmont, Hofstra, Bradley, Colgate
The 15 line: UC-Irvine, Wright St, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line: Eastern Washington, Siena, Winthrop, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
UCLA
Northern Iowa
Wichita St
Last 4 out:
Texas
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St
Next 4 out:
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Memphis
Next 4 out:
South Carolina
Mississippi St
Arkansas
Tennessee
(this is my way of saying that even though no one in the SEC bubble is in, someone inevitably will make a run out of this pack)
A little bit of tinkering elsewhere. The 8 and 9 lines feel weak to me, but teams should win their way into those lines this last week.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Duke
The 3 line: Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line: Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line: Colorado, Auburn, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 6 line: Butler, Iowa, West Virginia, BYU
The 7 line: Penn St, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line: Illinois, St Mary's, Florida, Texas Tech
The 9 line: Indiana, Houston, USC, LSU
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, North Carolina St, Rutgers, Arizona St
The 11 line: Providence, Oklahoma, Richmond, UCLA, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line: Liberty, Tulsa, Stephen F Austin, Yale
The 13 line: Akron, North Texas, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line: Belmont, Hofstra, Bradley, Colgate
The 15 line: UC-Irvine, Wright St, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line: Eastern Washington, Siena, Winthrop, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 4 in:
Richmond
UCLA
Northern Iowa
Wichita St
Last 4 out:
Texas
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St
Next 4 out:
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Memphis
Next 4 out:
South Carolina
Mississippi St
Arkansas
Tennessee
(this is my way of saying that even though no one in the SEC bubble is in, someone inevitably will make a run out of this pack)
3/6 recap
Georgia Tech 65, @Clemson 62 - Clemson's bubble resume soared across the sky like a meteor, and gone just like that
@NC State 84, Wake Forest 64
Richmond 73, @Duquesne 62 - road wins are never trivial
@Davidson 75, VCU 65 - they're not even going to make the NIT
MWC semis:
San Diego St 81, Boise St 68
Utah St 89, Wyoming 82 - didn't realize this till now, but Wyoming might've popped Utah St's bubble just by showing up to this game. If nothing else, Utah St's resume could've picked up a quad 2 win against either CSU or Nevada in the semis here. Sure, quad 2 isn't a resume-maker, but every extra quality win matters. They've only got 4 Q1/2 games right now. Instead, Wyoming shows up here and hurts Utah St with its mere presence
MVC quarters:
Drake 77, Northern Iowa 56 - well, I was assuming UNI would be home free. But I thought such a scenario would include a quad 2 loss to, well anybody in the top 4 in the conference. All they had to do was get around the quarterfinal cupcake. And here we are now. With a legitimate mess on our hands
Bradley 64, Southern Illinois 59
Valparaiso 74, Loyola(Chi) 73 (OT) - well, we found the conference tournament that went completely sideways this year. Good God what happened here?
Missouri 78, Indiana St 51 - sure, what the hell
WCC 2nd round:
San Francisco 82, Loyola Marymount 53
Pepperdine 84, Santa Clara 73
OVC semis:
Belmont 60, Eastern Kentucky 60
Murray St 73, Austin Peay 61 - will a better conference please rescue Belmont and Murray from the OVC please
Big South semis:
Winthrop 78, Gardner-Webb 66
Hampton 86, Radford 78 - there's an upset. This conference was probably headed to the 16 line anyways
SoCon 1st round:
VMI 96, Samford 78
Wofford 93, Citadel 76
@NC State 84, Wake Forest 64
Richmond 73, @Duquesne 62 - road wins are never trivial
@Davidson 75, VCU 65 - they're not even going to make the NIT
MWC semis:
San Diego St 81, Boise St 68
Utah St 89, Wyoming 82 - didn't realize this till now, but Wyoming might've popped Utah St's bubble just by showing up to this game. If nothing else, Utah St's resume could've picked up a quad 2 win against either CSU or Nevada in the semis here. Sure, quad 2 isn't a resume-maker, but every extra quality win matters. They've only got 4 Q1/2 games right now. Instead, Wyoming shows up here and hurts Utah St with its mere presence
MVC quarters:
Drake 77, Northern Iowa 56 - well, I was assuming UNI would be home free. But I thought such a scenario would include a quad 2 loss to, well anybody in the top 4 in the conference. All they had to do was get around the quarterfinal cupcake. And here we are now. With a legitimate mess on our hands
Bradley 64, Southern Illinois 59
Valparaiso 74, Loyola(Chi) 73 (OT) - well, we found the conference tournament that went completely sideways this year. Good God what happened here?
Missouri 78, Indiana St 51 - sure, what the hell
WCC 2nd round:
San Francisco 82, Loyola Marymount 53
Pepperdine 84, Santa Clara 73
OVC semis:
Belmont 60, Eastern Kentucky 60
Murray St 73, Austin Peay 61 - will a better conference please rescue Belmont and Murray from the OVC please
Big South semis:
Winthrop 78, Gardner-Webb 66
Hampton 86, Radford 78 - there's an upset. This conference was probably headed to the 16 line anyways
SoCon 1st round:
VMI 96, Samford 78
Wofford 93, Citadel 76
3/6 SEED LIST
A couple conference leaders changes. I can give the Pac-12 to Oregon for now, but Tulsa has to be assigned the AAC lead. A couple changes in 1-bid land too.
I see people putting Dayton on the 1 line. Not sure I'm quote there yet. Dayton does have the SoS advantage. Both losses are very reasonable and don't hurt the resume in the way SDSU's loss does. In the end, Dayton's collection of wins: N-St Mary's, @Richmond, swept URI, and plenty of wins over NIT teams. SDSU has @BYU, N-Creighton, N-Iowa, and swept Utah St. That's a better collection. If Dayton could swap losses between Colorado and any other game on their sked, I think that'd be the difference. SDSU has 3 Q1-A wins. That's gotta hold for now.
I can be swayed though.
There's a bit of scrubbing elsewhere.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Duke
The 3 line: Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line: Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line: Colorado, Auburn, Penn St, Iowa
The 6 line: Wisconsin, Butler, West Virginia, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line: Illinois, St Mary's, Florida, Texas Tech
The 9 line: Indiana, Houston, East Tennessee St, USC
The 10 line: LSU, North Carolina St, Rutgers, Arizona St
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Providence, UCLA, Wichita St
The 12 line: Richmond, Texas, Tulsa, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Eastern Washington, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 6 in:
Oklahoma
Providence
UCLA
Wichita St
Richmond
Texas
Last 6 out:
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Obviously things will change, but right now I feel like this is the group of 12 playing 6 spots on the bubble that belong in a cluster.
I see people putting Dayton on the 1 line. Not sure I'm quote there yet. Dayton does have the SoS advantage. Both losses are very reasonable and don't hurt the resume in the way SDSU's loss does. In the end, Dayton's collection of wins: N-St Mary's, @Richmond, swept URI, and plenty of wins over NIT teams. SDSU has @BYU, N-Creighton, N-Iowa, and swept Utah St. That's a better collection. If Dayton could swap losses between Colorado and any other game on their sked, I think that'd be the difference. SDSU has 3 Q1-A wins. That's gotta hold for now.
I can be swayed though.
There's a bit of scrubbing elsewhere.
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Duke
The 3 line: Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line: Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line: Colorado, Auburn, Penn St, Iowa
The 6 line: Wisconsin, Butler, West Virginia, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line: Illinois, St Mary's, Florida, Texas Tech
The 9 line: Indiana, Houston, East Tennessee St, USC
The 10 line: LSU, North Carolina St, Rutgers, Arizona St
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Providence, UCLA, Wichita St
The 12 line: Richmond, Texas, Tulsa, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Eastern Washington, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Last 6 in:
Oklahoma
Providence
UCLA
Wichita St
Richmond
Texas
Last 6 out:
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Obviously things will change, but right now I feel like this is the group of 12 playing 6 spots on the bubble that belong in a cluster.
3/5 recap
@Oregon 90, Cal 56
@Oregon St 68, Stanford 65 - with a roadie at Oregon left, Stanford might be in real trouble
Washington 90, @Arizona St 83 - just a terrible loss for a bubble team. Losing home games like this is a dagger
@Arizona 83, Washington St 62
@Ohio St 71, Illinois 63 - there's a legit chance it ends up being OSU, not PSU or Iowa or Wisky or Michigan, as the 3rd best B1G team. Somehow
@Michigan 82, Nebraska 58
@UConn 77, Houston 71 - are we sure Houston's safe? I mean, probably yes, I'm out of line. But their best wins are a sweep of WSU, Cincy at home, and @South Carolina. Their non-con SoS is 209, their avg win is 138, .500 on the road. That's *usually* the profile of a bubble team. Now, 8-2 vs. Q2 and no bad losses should be enough. But still.
@Memphis 68, Wichita St 60 - are we sure Wichita's safe? Oklahoma might be their only win over a tournament team. Same concerns with Houston apply here too, except their NET is much worse. Meanwhile, Memphis is still breathing
We need to salute the American. This isn't a bad conference! It's amazing how they're going to get the minimum out of their season though. On paper, this conference should have 3 or 4 bids. In reality, there's a real danger of 1 bid, and no high seeds. The wins and losses in conference have been distributed perfectly for maximum damage. Tulsa, SMU, UConn, and Memphis all won just enough to damage the other teams, without winning enough to be in the at-large picture themselves. This has been a perfect disaster for the conference.
A-Fun semis:
Lipscomb 73, North Florida 71 - there's an upset, and frankly good news for Liberty
Liberty 66, Stetson 62
MWC quarters:
San Diego St 73, Air Force 60
Boise St 67, UNLV 61
Utah St 75, New Mexico 70
Wyoming 74, Nevada 71
Big South quarters:
Winthrop 106, South Carolina Upstate 70
Gardner-Webb 72, UNC Asheville 62
Radford 62, Charleston Southern 48
Hampton 78, Longwood 53
Patriot quarters:
Bucknell 64, American 59 - upset
Boston 69, Navy 63
Lafayette 73, Army 68
Colgate 83, Lehigh 70
OVC quarters:
Eastern Kentucky 58, Tennessee St 48
Austin Peay 76, Eastern Illinois 65
Horizon quarters:
UIC 67, Youngstown St 61
Green Bay 78, Oakland 63
MVC 1st round:
Drake 75, Illinois St 65
Valparaiso 58, Evansville 56
WCC 1st round:
Loyola Marymount 75, San Diego 61
Santa Clara 76, Portland 62
@Oregon St 68, Stanford 65 - with a roadie at Oregon left, Stanford might be in real trouble
Washington 90, @Arizona St 83 - just a terrible loss for a bubble team. Losing home games like this is a dagger
@Arizona 83, Washington St 62
@Ohio St 71, Illinois 63 - there's a legit chance it ends up being OSU, not PSU or Iowa or Wisky or Michigan, as the 3rd best B1G team. Somehow
@Michigan 82, Nebraska 58
@UConn 77, Houston 71 - are we sure Houston's safe? I mean, probably yes, I'm out of line. But their best wins are a sweep of WSU, Cincy at home, and @South Carolina. Their non-con SoS is 209, their avg win is 138, .500 on the road. That's *usually* the profile of a bubble team. Now, 8-2 vs. Q2 and no bad losses should be enough. But still.
@Memphis 68, Wichita St 60 - are we sure Wichita's safe? Oklahoma might be their only win over a tournament team. Same concerns with Houston apply here too, except their NET is much worse. Meanwhile, Memphis is still breathing
We need to salute the American. This isn't a bad conference! It's amazing how they're going to get the minimum out of their season though. On paper, this conference should have 3 or 4 bids. In reality, there's a real danger of 1 bid, and no high seeds. The wins and losses in conference have been distributed perfectly for maximum damage. Tulsa, SMU, UConn, and Memphis all won just enough to damage the other teams, without winning enough to be in the at-large picture themselves. This has been a perfect disaster for the conference.
A-Fun semis:
Lipscomb 73, North Florida 71 - there's an upset, and frankly good news for Liberty
Liberty 66, Stetson 62
MWC quarters:
San Diego St 73, Air Force 60
Boise St 67, UNLV 61
Utah St 75, New Mexico 70
Wyoming 74, Nevada 71
Big South quarters:
Winthrop 106, South Carolina Upstate 70
Gardner-Webb 72, UNC Asheville 62
Radford 62, Charleston Southern 48
Hampton 78, Longwood 53
Patriot quarters:
Bucknell 64, American 59 - upset
Boston 69, Navy 63
Lafayette 73, Army 68
Colgate 83, Lehigh 70
OVC quarters:
Eastern Kentucky 58, Tennessee St 48
Austin Peay 76, Eastern Illinois 65
Horizon quarters:
UIC 67, Youngstown St 61
Green Bay 78, Oakland 63
MVC 1st round:
Drake 75, Illinois St 65
Valparaiso 58, Evansville 56
WCC 1st round:
Loyola Marymount 75, San Diego 61
Santa Clara 76, Portland 62
Thursday, March 5, 2020
3/5 SEED LIST
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Duke, Villanova
The 3 line: Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line: Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line: Colorado, Auburn, Penn St, Iowa
The 6 line: Wisconsin, Butler, West Virginia, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line: Illinois, Houston, St Mary's, Florida
The 9 line: Texas Tech, LSU, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Oklahoma, Wichita St, Providence
The 12 line: UCLA, Stanford, Texas, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Providence
*UCLA
Stanford
Texas
Last 4 out:
Xavier
Utah St
Rhode Island
Purdue
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Duke, Villanova
The 3 line: Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line: Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line: Colorado, Auburn, Penn St, Iowa
The 6 line: Wisconsin, Butler, West Virginia, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line: Illinois, Houston, St Mary's, Florida
The 9 line: Texas Tech, LSU, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line: East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St, Rutgers
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Oklahoma, Wichita St, Providence
The 12 line: UCLA, Stanford, Texas, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Providence
*UCLA
Stanford
Texas
Last 4 out:
Xavier
Utah St
Rhode Island
Purdue
3/4 recap
@Kansas 75, TCU 66
@Oklahoma St 69, Kansas St 63
Dayton 84, @Rhode Island 57 - the very rare game where I think margin of victory is going to matter for the bubble cause
St Louis 69, @George Mason 57
Florida St 73, @Notre Dame 71 - endgame for UND
Virginia 46, @Miami 44 - credit where it's due: UVa has done a great job of keeping their nose clean this last month
@Virginia Tech 70, Clemson 58 - well there went that thought about Clemson
@Georgia Tech 73, Pitt 57
Villanova 79, @Seton Hall 77 - very likely a game that might swing who winds up on the 2 line. Signature road win here
@Creighton 91, Georgetown 76
@Providence 80, Xavier 74 - I think Xavier is in real, real trouble. And I really hate Providence. Hate hate hate
@Butler 77, St John's 55
Texas A&M 78, @Auburn 75 - literally the entire country can't wait to pick against Auburn in a 5-12 game in two weeks
Florida 68, @Georgia 54 - road wins are never trivial
@Arkansas 99, LSU 90 - good for you, Arkansas. You need much more than this
@Ole Miss 75, Missouri 67
@Wisconsin 63, Northwestern 48
@Indiana 72, Minnesota 67
@UCF 61, SMU 58
Tulsa 61, @Temple 51
Mountain West 1st round:
Air Force 77, Fresno St 70
New Mexico 79, San Jose St 66
Wyoming 80, Colorado St 74 - might be a NIT bubble burster for CSU
NEC quarters:
Sacred Heart 61, Mt St Mary's 59
LIU 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 72
St Francis(PA) 87, Bryant 61
Robert Morris 59, St Francis(NY) 58 - service holds in the NEC
OVC 1st round:
Tennessee St 74, Morehead St 67
Eastern Illinois 67, Jacksonville St 61
@Oklahoma St 69, Kansas St 63
Dayton 84, @Rhode Island 57 - the very rare game where I think margin of victory is going to matter for the bubble cause
St Louis 69, @George Mason 57
Florida St 73, @Notre Dame 71 - endgame for UND
Virginia 46, @Miami 44 - credit where it's due: UVa has done a great job of keeping their nose clean this last month
@Virginia Tech 70, Clemson 58 - well there went that thought about Clemson
@Georgia Tech 73, Pitt 57
Villanova 79, @Seton Hall 77 - very likely a game that might swing who winds up on the 2 line. Signature road win here
@Creighton 91, Georgetown 76
@Providence 80, Xavier 74 - I think Xavier is in real, real trouble. And I really hate Providence. Hate hate hate
@Butler 77, St John's 55
Texas A&M 78, @Auburn 75 - literally the entire country can't wait to pick against Auburn in a 5-12 game in two weeks
Florida 68, @Georgia 54 - road wins are never trivial
@Arkansas 99, LSU 90 - good for you, Arkansas. You need much more than this
@Ole Miss 75, Missouri 67
@Wisconsin 63, Northwestern 48
@Indiana 72, Minnesota 67
@UCF 61, SMU 58
Tulsa 61, @Temple 51
Mountain West 1st round:
Air Force 77, Fresno St 70
New Mexico 79, San Jose St 66
Wyoming 80, Colorado St 74 - might be a NIT bubble burster for CSU
NEC quarters:
Sacred Heart 61, Mt St Mary's 59
LIU 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 72
St Francis(PA) 87, Bryant 61
Robert Morris 59, St Francis(NY) 58 - service holds in the NEC
OVC 1st round:
Tennessee St 74, Morehead St 67
Eastern Illinois 67, Jacksonville St 61
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
3/3 recap
@Rutgers 78, Maryland 67 - I still want to see a road win from Rutgers just to be sure, but this will alleviate some pressure
Michigan St 79, @Penn St 71 - MSU now clearly separating and have a strong likelihood of sneaking onto the 4 line, IMO
Purdue 77, @Iowa 68 - ah, crap, we have to take Purdue seriously now. Remember, this is just step 1 of several they need
Texas 52, @Oklahoma 51 - the plot thickens on the bubble. Now I'm really, really taking Texas seriously
West Virginia 77, @Iowa St 71
Tennessee 81, @Kentucky 73 - PUT EVERYONE ON THE 3 LINE
@South Carolina 83, Mississippi St 71
Vanderbilt 87, @Alabama 79 - that's a bubble-ending loss
Syracuse 84, @Boston College 71
@DePaul 69, Marquette 68 - that'll cost a seed line, maybe
Cincinnati 79, @South Florida 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Richmond 80, Davidson 63
Duquesne 80, @VCU 77 (OT)
Stephen F Austin 77, @Abilene Christian 72
A-Fun quarters:
Stetson 82, North Alabama 72
Liberty 55, NJIT 49
North Florida 91, Jacksonville 88
Lipscomb 68, FGCU 63 - service holds up and down the line in the A-Fun
Big South 1st round:
Charleston Southern 81, Presbyterian 64
UNC Asheville 72, Campbell 68
South Carolina Upstate 69, High Point 59
Horizon 1st round:
Oakland 80, Cleveland St 59
Youngstown St 63, Milwaukee 57
UIC 93, IUPUI 59
Patriot 1st round:
Lehigh 78, Loyola(MD) 75
Bucknell 65, Holy Cross 62
Michigan St 79, @Penn St 71 - MSU now clearly separating and have a strong likelihood of sneaking onto the 4 line, IMO
Purdue 77, @Iowa 68 - ah, crap, we have to take Purdue seriously now. Remember, this is just step 1 of several they need
Texas 52, @Oklahoma 51 - the plot thickens on the bubble. Now I'm really, really taking Texas seriously
West Virginia 77, @Iowa St 71
Tennessee 81, @Kentucky 73 - PUT EVERYONE ON THE 3 LINE
@South Carolina 83, Mississippi St 71
Vanderbilt 87, @Alabama 79 - that's a bubble-ending loss
Syracuse 84, @Boston College 71
@DePaul 69, Marquette 68 - that'll cost a seed line, maybe
Cincinnati 79, @South Florida 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Richmond 80, Davidson 63
Duquesne 80, @VCU 77 (OT)
Stephen F Austin 77, @Abilene Christian 72
A-Fun quarters:
Stetson 82, North Alabama 72
Liberty 55, NJIT 49
North Florida 91, Jacksonville 88
Lipscomb 68, FGCU 63 - service holds up and down the line in the A-Fun
Big South 1st round:
Charleston Southern 81, Presbyterian 64
UNC Asheville 72, Campbell 68
South Carolina Upstate 69, High Point 59
Horizon 1st round:
Oakland 80, Cleveland St 59
Youngstown St 63, Milwaukee 57
UIC 93, IUPUI 59
Patriot 1st round:
Lehigh 78, Loyola(MD) 75
Bucknell 65, Holy Cross 62
Monday, March 2, 2020
3/2 recap
We're probably not doing conference tourney previews. We'll just handle results as they roll in.
@Duke 88, NC State 69 - if you split a season series with Duke, you're doing ok. Just don't lose to Wake now ok. A Q2 win for Duke, which might matter more than you think.
@Baylor 71, Texas Tech 68 (OT) - man, now what for TTU. Kansas still to go, and a very probable chance of another bubble team in their 1st game in the conference tourney. Can they survive 18-14 with their resume?
@Duke 88, NC State 69 - if you split a season series with Duke, you're doing ok. Just don't lose to Wake now ok. A Q2 win for Duke, which might matter more than you think.
@Baylor 71, Texas Tech 68 (OT) - man, now what for TTU. Kansas still to go, and a very probable chance of another bubble team in their 1st game in the conference tourney. Can they survive 18-14 with their resume?
3/2 BRACKET
Hey, BYU didn't fuck anything up this time.
A little imbalance in the regions, but there's no clean way to get any closer without starting to touch the 2 line. So I left it as is.
MIDWEST 32
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
8) Illinois vs. 9) Florida
@Cleveland
4) Louisville vs. 13) Yale
5) Penn St vs. 12) Stanford/Xavier
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Belmont
6) Butler vs. 11) Northern Iowa
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) Colgate
7) BYU vs. 10) USC
EAST 34
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Siena
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Vermont
5) Iowa vs. 12) Liberty
@Albany
3) Villanova vs. 14) Hofstra
6) West Virginia vs. 11) Richmond
@Cleveland
2) Dayton vs. 15) Wright St
7) Marquette vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST 36
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Montana
8) LSU vs. 9) Arizona St
@Tampa
4) Michigan St vs. 13) Akron
5) Colorado vs. 12) Rutgers/Providence
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Wichita St
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Arkansas-Little Rock
7) Arizona vs. 10) Oklahoma
SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Radford/North Carolina A&T
8) Houston vs. 9) Indiana
@Sacramento
4) Auburn vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@Tampa
3) Florida St vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Michigan vs. 11) UCLA
@Greensboro
2) Maryland vs. 15) North Dakota St
7) Virginia vs. 10) East Tennessee St
A little imbalance in the regions, but there's no clean way to get any closer without starting to touch the 2 line. So I left it as is.
MIDWEST 32
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
8) Illinois vs. 9) Florida
@Cleveland
4) Louisville vs. 13) Yale
5) Penn St vs. 12) Stanford/Xavier
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Belmont
6) Butler vs. 11) Northern Iowa
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) Colgate
7) BYU vs. 10) USC
EAST 34
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Siena
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Vermont
5) Iowa vs. 12) Liberty
@Albany
3) Villanova vs. 14) Hofstra
6) West Virginia vs. 11) Richmond
@Cleveland
2) Dayton vs. 15) Wright St
7) Marquette vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST 36
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Montana
8) LSU vs. 9) Arizona St
@Tampa
4) Michigan St vs. 13) Akron
5) Colorado vs. 12) Rutgers/Providence
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Wichita St
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Arkansas-Little Rock
7) Arizona vs. 10) Oklahoma
SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Radford/North Carolina A&T
8) Houston vs. 9) Indiana
@Sacramento
4) Auburn vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@Tampa
3) Florida St vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Michigan vs. 11) UCLA
@Greensboro
2) Maryland vs. 15) North Dakota St
7) Virginia vs. 10) East Tennessee St
Sunday, March 1, 2020
3/2 SEED LIST
Scrub a dub dub
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Maryland, Duke
The 3 line: Florida St, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky
The 4 line: Louisville, Michigan St, Oregon, Auburn
The 5 line: Penn St, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio St
The 6 line: Butler, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Marquette, Arizona
The 8 line: Illinois, Houston, LSU, St Mary's
The 9 line: Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line: Oklahoma, East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Wichita St, UCLA
The 12 line: Rutgers, Stanford, Xavier, Providence, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Next 4 in:
*East Tennessee St
USC
North Carolina St
*Northern Iowa
Richmond
Wichita St
Last 4 in:
Rutgers
Stanford
Xavier
*UCLA
Providence
Last 4 out:
Rhode Island
Utah St
Texas
Cincinnati
Next 4 out:
Purdue
Mississippi St
Alabama
Clemson
Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 7
Pac-12 7
Big 12 5
ACC 5
SEC 4
WCC 3
AAC 2
A-10 2
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Maryland, Duke
The 3 line: Florida St, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky
The 4 line: Louisville, Michigan St, Oregon, Auburn
The 5 line: Penn St, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio St
The 6 line: Butler, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Marquette, Arizona
The 8 line: Illinois, Houston, LSU, St Mary's
The 9 line: Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line: Oklahoma, East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Wichita St, UCLA
The 12 line: Rutgers, Stanford, Xavier, Providence, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Next 4 in:
*East Tennessee St
USC
North Carolina St
*Northern Iowa
Richmond
Wichita St
Last 4 in:
Rutgers
Stanford
Xavier
*UCLA
Providence
Last 4 out:
Rhode Island
Utah St
Texas
Cincinnati
Next 4 out:
Purdue
Mississippi St
Alabama
Clemson
Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 7
Pac-12 7
Big 12 5
ACC 5
SEC 4
WCC 3
AAC 2
A-10 2
3/1 recap
@St John's 91, Creighton 71 - oh for christ's sake Creighton
Xavier 66, @Georgetown 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Louisville 68, Virginia Tech 52
@Ohio St 77, Michigan 63
@Illinois 67, Indiana 66
@Wisconsin 71, Minnesota 69 - man, Minnesota...
@Stanford 72, Colorado 64 - well here we go. Pac-12 starting to figure out the formula to maximize at-large bids
@Houston 68, Cincinnati 55
Wichita St 66, @SMU 62 - road wins are never trivial, and this one makes me feel a bit easier about putting WSU in the field
St Louis 72, @Rhode Island 62 - uh oh. URI spending a lot of the goodwill it had built up in previous weeks
Xavier 66, @Georgetown 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Louisville 68, Virginia Tech 52
@Ohio St 77, Michigan 63
@Illinois 67, Indiana 66
@Wisconsin 71, Minnesota 69 - man, Minnesota...
@Stanford 72, Colorado 64 - well here we go. Pac-12 starting to figure out the formula to maximize at-large bids
@Houston 68, Cincinnati 55
Wichita St 66, @SMU 62 - road wins are never trivial, and this one makes me feel a bit easier about putting WSU in the field
St Louis 72, @Rhode Island 62 - uh oh. URI spending a lot of the goodwill it had built up in previous weeks
Bubble watch: the rest
East Tennessee St (24-4) (16-2) NET 41 SoS 131
Vital signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 203
1-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @LSU, @UNCG, Furman?
Bad losses: Mercer
Put this team in the tournament, jerks.
Liberty (25-4) (13-3) NET 64 SoS 319
Vital signs: 13-4 R/N, non-con SoS 223, avg win 259
0-1 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Akron
Bad losses: @Lipscomb, @Stetson are Q4
A courtesy listing, given their record. That SoS is a non-starter. No true quality wins.
Stephen F Austin (23-3) (17-1) NET 79 SoS 339
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 189, avg win 272
1-2 vs. Q1, 0-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Duke
Bad losses: TAMU-CC
See Liberty....but instead they binked a roadie at Duke. Makes all the difference. It's still a big ask. They played 21 Q4 games. 2 Q3 games. Oof. The SoS is just too terrible. If they had a second win to point do beyond Duke, I'd love their chances. It wouldn't even have to be a Q1 win, just a Q2 win or game. They did lose at Rutgers and Bama. Needed a couple more chances.
NIT watch:
Akron (20-7) (12-4) NET 76 SoS 95 - if they lose the regular season to Bowling Green in the MAC, they'll be in range of the NIT. But with no Q1/2 wins, they're not viable.
Furman (22-6) (15-3) NET 65 SoS 155 - a couple Q2 wins in conference play, but a very plain non-con makes the case a bit dicey. True borderline case for the NIT
UNC Greensboro (21-8) (13-5) NET 78 SoS 127 - they have road wins at Georgetown and Vermont to add some spice to this resume, and did win at Furman...but dropped a couple more road games in conference play. This is a case where I could see them leapfrog Furman for a NIT at-large bid. Frankly, they should both be in though.
Yale (20-6) (10-2) NET 62 SoS 237 - if they lose the Ivy regular season to Harvard, there's an outside case here. Win at Clemson is gaining steam, but it's about all they have on the resume.
Vital signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 203
1-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @LSU, @UNCG, Furman?
Bad losses: Mercer
Put this team in the tournament, jerks.
Liberty (25-4) (13-3) NET 64 SoS 319
Vital signs: 13-4 R/N, non-con SoS 223, avg win 259
0-1 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Akron
Bad losses: @Lipscomb, @Stetson are Q4
A courtesy listing, given their record. That SoS is a non-starter. No true quality wins.
Stephen F Austin (23-3) (17-1) NET 79 SoS 339
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 189, avg win 272
1-2 vs. Q1, 0-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Duke
Bad losses: TAMU-CC
See Liberty....but instead they binked a roadie at Duke. Makes all the difference. It's still a big ask. They played 21 Q4 games. 2 Q3 games. Oof. The SoS is just too terrible. If they had a second win to point do beyond Duke, I'd love their chances. It wouldn't even have to be a Q1 win, just a Q2 win or game. They did lose at Rutgers and Bama. Needed a couple more chances.
NIT watch:
Akron (20-7) (12-4) NET 76 SoS 95 - if they lose the regular season to Bowling Green in the MAC, they'll be in range of the NIT. But with no Q1/2 wins, they're not viable.
Furman (22-6) (15-3) NET 65 SoS 155 - a couple Q2 wins in conference play, but a very plain non-con makes the case a bit dicey. True borderline case for the NIT
UNC Greensboro (21-8) (13-5) NET 78 SoS 127 - they have road wins at Georgetown and Vermont to add some spice to this resume, and did win at Furman...but dropped a couple more road games in conference play. This is a case where I could see them leapfrog Furman for a NIT at-large bid. Frankly, they should both be in though.
Yale (20-6) (10-2) NET 62 SoS 237 - if they lose the Ivy regular season to Harvard, there's an outside case here. Win at Clemson is gaining steam, but it's about all they have on the resume.
Bubble watch: MVC/MWC/WCC
Lockbox:
Gonzaga (29-2) (15-1) NET 2 SoS 136
Vital signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 282, avg win 160
5-2 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, @Arizona, N-Oregon
Bad losses: none
Hilariously, their non-con SoS might be the one thing that knocks them off the 1 line. Seriously, 282 is a number we usually see serve as a disqualifier for the 1 line. The dirty secret of their schedule is that they absorbed a lot of home cupcakes, and all the good teams they played went in the tank (except the ones they ran into in Atlantis).
San Diego St (27-1) (17-1) NET 4 SoS 106
Vital signs: 14-0 R/N, non-con SoS 140, avg win 154
4-0 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Creighton, @BYU, N-Iowa
Bad losses: UNLV
Reminder that the regular season is over for the MWC, so at most SDSU can take one dumb loss. I'm not feeling great about the contenders for their spot...I don't think Dayton can catch them, the ACC is being dumb, Maryland is losing...this is close to becoming a lock for them.
BYU (23-7) (13-3) NET 10 SoS 35
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 9, avg win 144
3-4 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Gonzaga, @Houston, N-Utah St
Bad losses: @San Fran? @Boise?
Since they're out of regular season games, we can lock them in. A good solid collection of Q1/2 wins. And some of their Q1 losses were to elite teams (Kansas, SDSU, Gonzaga), so the penalty isn't as severe as one might assume. They're safe.
Bubble:
St Mary's (23-7) (11-5) NET 31 SoS 59
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 95, avg win 162
3-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, N-Wisky, N-ASU
Bad losses: Santa Clara, Winthrop
Two ugly home losses in Q3 keep them from the lockbox. Considering their 4 Q1 losses are all inside the NET Top 10, they're better off than you think. They won enough against a reasonably good non-con schedule, so I think they're home free. Just want to see them avoid a dumb loss first.
Northern Iowa (23-5) (14-4) NET 37 SoS 118
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 136, avg win 164
1-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Colorado, N-S Carolina
Bad losses: @SIU, @Illinois St
@Colorado is a trump card that they can use...not sure if it's enough. 5 wins inside the top 2 quads isn't great, but they lacked overall opportunities. 8-4 in true road games...is that good enough to forgive 2 dumb Q3 road losses? It's right on the edge.
Utah St (21-8) (12-6) NET 38 SoS 119
Vital signs: 8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 178
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-LSU, N-Florida, N-North Texas?
Bad losses: @AFA, @New Mexico
They're below .500 in true road games at 4-6. That might be the death knell. 6-4 would've looked so much better, and would've removed a couple marginal losses. They took a couple too many, it would appear.
NIT Watch:
Pacific (21-9) (11-5) NET 106 SoS 186 - they're your 4th place WCC team, and they beat St Mary's, but that's about it. Don't really see them as NIT viable. Maybe San Francisco gets a look instead, but I'm guessing the number of postseason teams in the WCC ends at 3.
Nevada (19-11) (12-6) NET 88 SoS 103 - there's a bunch of MWC teams clustered close together, resume-wise. UNLV, Colorado St, Boise St are all next to each other in the standings. I'm not sure I can make the case for any of them to go to the NIT, but if someone does, I very hesitantly lean towards Nevada. I don't have much conviction, though.
Loyola(Chi) (20-10) (13-5) NET 98 SoS 169 - if this is the 2nd best resume in the MVC, no one from the MVC is going to the NIT.
Gonzaga (29-2) (15-1) NET 2 SoS 136
Vital signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 282, avg win 160
5-2 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, @Arizona, N-Oregon
Bad losses: none
Hilariously, their non-con SoS might be the one thing that knocks them off the 1 line. Seriously, 282 is a number we usually see serve as a disqualifier for the 1 line. The dirty secret of their schedule is that they absorbed a lot of home cupcakes, and all the good teams they played went in the tank (except the ones they ran into in Atlantis).
San Diego St (27-1) (17-1) NET 4 SoS 106
Vital signs: 14-0 R/N, non-con SoS 140, avg win 154
4-0 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Creighton, @BYU, N-Iowa
Bad losses: UNLV
Reminder that the regular season is over for the MWC, so at most SDSU can take one dumb loss. I'm not feeling great about the contenders for their spot...I don't think Dayton can catch them, the ACC is being dumb, Maryland is losing...this is close to becoming a lock for them.
BYU (23-7) (13-3) NET 10 SoS 35
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 9, avg win 144
3-4 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Gonzaga, @Houston, N-Utah St
Bad losses: @San Fran? @Boise?
Since they're out of regular season games, we can lock them in. A good solid collection of Q1/2 wins. And some of their Q1 losses were to elite teams (Kansas, SDSU, Gonzaga), so the penalty isn't as severe as one might assume. They're safe.
Bubble:
St Mary's (23-7) (11-5) NET 31 SoS 59
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 95, avg win 162
3-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, N-Wisky, N-ASU
Bad losses: Santa Clara, Winthrop
Two ugly home losses in Q3 keep them from the lockbox. Considering their 4 Q1 losses are all inside the NET Top 10, they're better off than you think. They won enough against a reasonably good non-con schedule, so I think they're home free. Just want to see them avoid a dumb loss first.
Northern Iowa (23-5) (14-4) NET 37 SoS 118
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 136, avg win 164
1-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Colorado, N-S Carolina
Bad losses: @SIU, @Illinois St
@Colorado is a trump card that they can use...not sure if it's enough. 5 wins inside the top 2 quads isn't great, but they lacked overall opportunities. 8-4 in true road games...is that good enough to forgive 2 dumb Q3 road losses? It's right on the edge.
Utah St (21-8) (12-6) NET 38 SoS 119
Vital signs: 8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 178
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-LSU, N-Florida, N-North Texas?
Bad losses: @AFA, @New Mexico
They're below .500 in true road games at 4-6. That might be the death knell. 6-4 would've looked so much better, and would've removed a couple marginal losses. They took a couple too many, it would appear.
NIT Watch:
Pacific (21-9) (11-5) NET 106 SoS 186 - they're your 4th place WCC team, and they beat St Mary's, but that's about it. Don't really see them as NIT viable. Maybe San Francisco gets a look instead, but I'm guessing the number of postseason teams in the WCC ends at 3.
Nevada (19-11) (12-6) NET 88 SoS 103 - there's a bunch of MWC teams clustered close together, resume-wise. UNLV, Colorado St, Boise St are all next to each other in the standings. I'm not sure I can make the case for any of them to go to the NIT, but if someone does, I very hesitantly lean towards Nevada. I don't have much conviction, though.
Loyola(Chi) (20-10) (13-5) NET 98 SoS 169 - if this is the 2nd best resume in the MVC, no one from the MVC is going to the NIT.
Bubble watch: A-10/AAC
Again, lumping these 2 conferences together oughta get AAC fans riled up again.
Lockbox:
Dayton (27-2) (16-0) NET 3 SoS 25
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 33, avg win 138
4-2 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-St Mary's, @Richmond, @VCU
Bad losses: none
I don't think they have a strong enough collection of wins to make it to the 1 line. I think.
Bubble:
Houston (22-7) (12-4) NET 22 SoS 78
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 221, avg win 139
2-4 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept WSU, Cincy? @South Carolina?
Bad losses: Okla St?
Not a lock. See the non-con SoS, the general lack of signature wins. However, without a truly catastrophic loss, I think they'll be fine. But there's still time to absorb a couple more losses.
Rhode Island (20-8) (12-4) NET 43 SoS 70
Vital signs: 8-6 R/N, non-con SoS 42, avg win 154
1-5 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @VCU, Bama, Providence?
Bad losses: @Brown, St Louis?
With their season sweep of VCU evaporating into not much resume help, it's closer to the bubble than you think. I think they should be safe still, but I'm having a tricky time figuring out just how valuable these decent Q2 home wins are.
Wichita St (22-7) (10-6) NET 47 SoS 81
Vital signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 136, avg win 145
2-4 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Oklahoma, @UConn and @Okla St?
Bad losses: @Temple
Oklahoma at home might very well represent their only win over a tourney team. That is a major resume hole. Okay SoS numbers and road numbers, and no one part of this profile sticks out as unassailable. I would highly suggest handling your business next week, because a volume of losses would be a problem that this resume isn't designed to overcome.
Cincinnati (18-10) (11-5) NET 53 SoS 9
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 26 avg win 119
2-6 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Houston, swept WSU, Memphis?
Bad losses: Colgate, UCF, N-Bowling Green, @Tulane
4 Q3 losses is a problem. The SoS numbers are well inflated by scheduling the right mid-majors (Vermont, Colgate, BGU). Problem is they sure lost to a bunch of them. I don't know how much those Houston/WSU wins will matter, but they sure better hope they mean everything. How high they end up rated will likely cause a trickle down effect to Cincy's bubble hopes.
Richmond (22-7) (12-4) NET 48 SoS 93
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 100, avg win 168
3-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Wisky, @URI, VCU?
Bad losses: N-Radford, @St Bona?
Only 4 wins in the top 2 quads isn't the greatest mark. 8-3 in true road games is. I would highly suggest keeping your nose clean against non-tourney teams the rest of the way. That might be enough, given there's at least the 2 solid legit Q1 wins on the board above.
Memphis (20-9) (9-7) NET 60 SoS 89
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 162, avg win 162
2-4 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Houston, Cincy, N-NCSU
Bad losses: USF, Georgia, SMU all at home
Well, they have Houston and Wichita left. So there's time yet. But this isn't a tournament team right now.
NIT watch:
Tulsa (20-9) (12-4) NET 83 SoS 171 - non-con SoS in the 330s. That's a non-starter for this resume.
SMU (19-9) (9-7) NET 81 SoS 133 - non-con SoS in the 310s. That's a non-starter for this resume.
UConn (17-12) (8-8) NET 61 SoS 69 - just too many losses to have any kind of chance.
St Louis (20-8) (10-6) NET 66 SoS 84 - a couple decent road wins, a couple dumb losses. In other words, your quintessential NIT resume.
VCU (18-11) (8-8) NET 56 SoS 56 - good lord did the bottom drop out here. Home wins over LSU and Richmond, but too many losses to be bubble relevant.
Duquesne (20-8) (10-6) NET 96 SoS 134 - poor SoS numbers, 5 losses in Q3/4. Despite being 5-3 in the top 2 quads...this is a NIT bubble team.
Davidson (15-13) (9-7) NET 71 SoS 116 - gets a quick glance because of the NET, but probably not viable for the NIT.
St Bonaventure (17-11) (10-6) NET 115 SoS 115 - their resume looks better than NET 115. But probably not a NIT team either.
Lockbox:
Dayton (27-2) (16-0) NET 3 SoS 25
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 33, avg win 138
4-2 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-St Mary's, @Richmond, @VCU
Bad losses: none
I don't think they have a strong enough collection of wins to make it to the 1 line. I think.
Bubble:
Houston (22-7) (12-4) NET 22 SoS 78
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 221, avg win 139
2-4 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept WSU, Cincy? @South Carolina?
Bad losses: Okla St?
Not a lock. See the non-con SoS, the general lack of signature wins. However, without a truly catastrophic loss, I think they'll be fine. But there's still time to absorb a couple more losses.
Rhode Island (20-8) (12-4) NET 43 SoS 70
Vital signs: 8-6 R/N, non-con SoS 42, avg win 154
1-5 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @VCU, Bama, Providence?
Bad losses: @Brown, St Louis?
With their season sweep of VCU evaporating into not much resume help, it's closer to the bubble than you think. I think they should be safe still, but I'm having a tricky time figuring out just how valuable these decent Q2 home wins are.
Wichita St (22-7) (10-6) NET 47 SoS 81
Vital signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 136, avg win 145
2-4 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Oklahoma, @UConn and @Okla St?
Bad losses: @Temple
Oklahoma at home might very well represent their only win over a tourney team. That is a major resume hole. Okay SoS numbers and road numbers, and no one part of this profile sticks out as unassailable. I would highly suggest handling your business next week, because a volume of losses would be a problem that this resume isn't designed to overcome.
Cincinnati (18-10) (11-5) NET 53 SoS 9
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 26 avg win 119
2-6 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Houston, swept WSU, Memphis?
Bad losses: Colgate, UCF, N-Bowling Green, @Tulane
4 Q3 losses is a problem. The SoS numbers are well inflated by scheduling the right mid-majors (Vermont, Colgate, BGU). Problem is they sure lost to a bunch of them. I don't know how much those Houston/WSU wins will matter, but they sure better hope they mean everything. How high they end up rated will likely cause a trickle down effect to Cincy's bubble hopes.
Richmond (22-7) (12-4) NET 48 SoS 93
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 100, avg win 168
3-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Wisky, @URI, VCU?
Bad losses: N-Radford, @St Bona?
Only 4 wins in the top 2 quads isn't the greatest mark. 8-3 in true road games is. I would highly suggest keeping your nose clean against non-tourney teams the rest of the way. That might be enough, given there's at least the 2 solid legit Q1 wins on the board above.
Memphis (20-9) (9-7) NET 60 SoS 89
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 162, avg win 162
2-4 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Houston, Cincy, N-NCSU
Bad losses: USF, Georgia, SMU all at home
Well, they have Houston and Wichita left. So there's time yet. But this isn't a tournament team right now.
NIT watch:
Tulsa (20-9) (12-4) NET 83 SoS 171 - non-con SoS in the 330s. That's a non-starter for this resume.
SMU (19-9) (9-7) NET 81 SoS 133 - non-con SoS in the 310s. That's a non-starter for this resume.
UConn (17-12) (8-8) NET 61 SoS 69 - just too many losses to have any kind of chance.
St Louis (20-8) (10-6) NET 66 SoS 84 - a couple decent road wins, a couple dumb losses. In other words, your quintessential NIT resume.
VCU (18-11) (8-8) NET 56 SoS 56 - good lord did the bottom drop out here. Home wins over LSU and Richmond, but too many losses to be bubble relevant.
Duquesne (20-8) (10-6) NET 96 SoS 134 - poor SoS numbers, 5 losses in Q3/4. Despite being 5-3 in the top 2 quads...this is a NIT bubble team.
Davidson (15-13) (9-7) NET 71 SoS 116 - gets a quick glance because of the NET, but probably not viable for the NIT.
St Bonaventure (17-11) (10-6) NET 115 SoS 115 - their resume looks better than NET 115. But probably not a NIT team either.
Bubble watch: Big 12
Lockbox:
Kansas (25-3) (15-1) NET 1 SoS 1
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, avg win 74
11-3 vs. Q1, 8-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Dayton, @Baylor, Colorado, swept WVU, etc etc
Bad losses: none
The news isn't that they're #1 overall, it's that I believe they can spend multiple losses and still be #1 overall.
Baylor (25-3) (14-2) NET 5 SoS 74
Vital signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 193, avg win 108
10-1 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Kansas, N-Nova, Zone, @TTU, etc etc
Bad losses: @TCU, N-Washington
Can a 1 seed have those 2 bad losses on the docket? We're about to find out, because the rest of the resume is sterling.
West Virginia (19-10) (7-9) NET 21 SoS 2
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 4, avg win 94
5-7 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Ohio St, TTU, N-UNI
Bad losses: @Kansas St, @TCU
They're safe from the bubble because of that SoS and enough significant non-con results. But they are bleeding a lot of seed lines right now.
Bubble:
Texas Tech (18-11) (9-7) NET 23 SoS 88
Vital signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 175, avg win 159
3-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Louisville, WVU, @Texas?
Bad losses: @TCU
Some troubling marks in the SoS and average win mark mean no lockbox yet, despite the shiny NET. Potential alarming situation: their last 2 games are Baylor and Kansas. If they slide to 18-14, there's gonna be some worrying.
Oklahoma (18-11) (8-8) NET 42 SoS 32
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 59, avg win 107
5-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept WVU, TTU, @Texas?
Bad losses: @K-State, @IaSt
3-8 in true road games is disconcerting. But they have a decent chunk of quality wins (or at least enough of them) to probably miss the tourney at this point. They have 2 games they really should win this week. I highly suggest winning both to avoid drama.
Texas (18-11) (8-8) NET 58 SoS 39
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 112, avg win 133
4-7 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Purdue, @TTU, WVU
Bad losses: @IaSt and N-G'town are the worst
I'm not sure there's enough here, but it's not an unreasonable resume. Decent numbers everywhere, a couple good honest wins, no horrifying losses. Worse resumes have gone farther.
NIT watch:
TCU (15-13) (7-9) NET 92 SoS 62
Oklahoma St (15-14) (5-11) NET 68 SoS 25 - both teams seems like classic NIT bubble teams to me.
Kansas (25-3) (15-1) NET 1 SoS 1
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, avg win 74
11-3 vs. Q1, 8-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Dayton, @Baylor, Colorado, swept WVU, etc etc
Bad losses: none
The news isn't that they're #1 overall, it's that I believe they can spend multiple losses and still be #1 overall.
Baylor (25-3) (14-2) NET 5 SoS 74
Vital signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 193, avg win 108
10-1 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Kansas, N-Nova, Zone, @TTU, etc etc
Bad losses: @TCU, N-Washington
Can a 1 seed have those 2 bad losses on the docket? We're about to find out, because the rest of the resume is sterling.
West Virginia (19-10) (7-9) NET 21 SoS 2
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 4, avg win 94
5-7 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Ohio St, TTU, N-UNI
Bad losses: @Kansas St, @TCU
They're safe from the bubble because of that SoS and enough significant non-con results. But they are bleeding a lot of seed lines right now.
Bubble:
Texas Tech (18-11) (9-7) NET 23 SoS 88
Vital signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 175, avg win 159
3-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Louisville, WVU, @Texas?
Bad losses: @TCU
Some troubling marks in the SoS and average win mark mean no lockbox yet, despite the shiny NET. Potential alarming situation: their last 2 games are Baylor and Kansas. If they slide to 18-14, there's gonna be some worrying.
Oklahoma (18-11) (8-8) NET 42 SoS 32
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 59, avg win 107
5-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept WVU, TTU, @Texas?
Bad losses: @K-State, @IaSt
3-8 in true road games is disconcerting. But they have a decent chunk of quality wins (or at least enough of them) to probably miss the tourney at this point. They have 2 games they really should win this week. I highly suggest winning both to avoid drama.
Texas (18-11) (8-8) NET 58 SoS 39
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 112, avg win 133
4-7 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Purdue, @TTU, WVU
Bad losses: @IaSt and N-G'town are the worst
I'm not sure there's enough here, but it's not an unreasonable resume. Decent numbers everywhere, a couple good honest wins, no horrifying losses. Worse resumes have gone farther.
NIT watch:
TCU (15-13) (7-9) NET 92 SoS 62
Oklahoma St (15-14) (5-11) NET 68 SoS 25 - both teams seems like classic NIT bubble teams to me.
Bubble watch: Pac-12
Lockbox:
Oregon (22-7) (11-5) NET 18 SoS 6
Vital signs: 7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 17, avg win 94
7-5 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept Zona, N-SHU, @Michigan
Bad losses: N-UNC, @Wazzu
I can be talked into any line between 2 and 5.
Colorado (21-8) (10-6) NET 20 SoS 12
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 32, avg win 109
7-4 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Dayton, Oregon, @USC
Bad losses: @Cal, UCLA and OSU at home?
A good solid resume with a couple home losses too many to be a 3 seed or greater. I can be talked into the 4 line here.
Bubble:
Arizona (19-10) (9-7) NET 11 SoS 5
Vital signs: 7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 18, avg win 120
3-8 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Colorado...@Stanford? @Washington? USC?
Bad losses: UCLA at home I suppose
I can't believe a team with a NET this good isn't a lock yet. But I mean...what's their 2nd best win? After the Colorado win, their only wins over tourney teams might be home wins over USC/ASU/New Mexico St/South Dakota St. It's not an impressive group of quality wins. However, with so many of their other metrics in order, I can't imagine them missing. But they have the Washington schools at home, which means they're 2 dumb losses away from real trouble.
Arizona St (19-10) (10-6) NET 50 SoS 11
Vital signs: 7-8 R/N, non-con SoS 56, avg win 117
5-8 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Zona, @Stanford, Oregon
Bad losses: @Wazzu is the only dumb one
Your stock bubble resume. A decent collection of quality wins, but behind the backdrop of a lot of opportunities that make you wonder if they lost 1 or 2 too many. I'm coming around to being ok with them in the field.
USC (21-9) (10-7) NET 39 SoS 58
Vital signs: 8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 152, avg win 132
5-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Zona, N-LSU, @UCLA
Bad losses: Temple, @Utah?
Another stock bubble resume. Throw them in the bucket with ASU.
UCLA (18-11) (12-5) NET 75 SoS 56
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 209, avg win 117
6-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept Arizona and Colorado (!)
Bad losses: Cal St-Fullerton, Hofstra, @Wazzu
They lead the Pac-12. What a time to be alive. Non-con SoS is a problem, as is non-con performance (they went 6-6 with no Q1 or Q2 wins). Swept two quality teams, but after that and a home win over ASU, no other wins over tourney teams. I just can't imagine this team in right now.
Stanford (19-9) (8-7) NET 30 SoS 103
Vital signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 213, avg win 156
4-5 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Oregon, N-Oklahoma, @UCLA?
Bad losses: @Cal, OSU
The ultimate test of NET. SoS numbers are poor. A couple good wins, a couple bad losses, an otherwise unremarkable resume. But the NET is shiny. Who knows what they'll do.
NIT watch:
Utah (15-14) (6-11) NET 87 SoS 40 - beat BYU and Kentucky so they have a chance here.
Oregon St (15-13) (5-11) NET 72 SoS 106 - probably not, but 4 Q1 wins are worth noting.
Oregon (22-7) (11-5) NET 18 SoS 6
Vital signs: 7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 17, avg win 94
7-5 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept Zona, N-SHU, @Michigan
Bad losses: N-UNC, @Wazzu
I can be talked into any line between 2 and 5.
Colorado (21-8) (10-6) NET 20 SoS 12
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 32, avg win 109
7-4 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Dayton, Oregon, @USC
Bad losses: @Cal, UCLA and OSU at home?
A good solid resume with a couple home losses too many to be a 3 seed or greater. I can be talked into the 4 line here.
Bubble:
Arizona (19-10) (9-7) NET 11 SoS 5
Vital signs: 7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 18, avg win 120
3-8 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Colorado...@Stanford? @Washington? USC?
Bad losses: UCLA at home I suppose
I can't believe a team with a NET this good isn't a lock yet. But I mean...what's their 2nd best win? After the Colorado win, their only wins over tourney teams might be home wins over USC/ASU/New Mexico St/South Dakota St. It's not an impressive group of quality wins. However, with so many of their other metrics in order, I can't imagine them missing. But they have the Washington schools at home, which means they're 2 dumb losses away from real trouble.
Arizona St (19-10) (10-6) NET 50 SoS 11
Vital signs: 7-8 R/N, non-con SoS 56, avg win 117
5-8 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Zona, @Stanford, Oregon
Bad losses: @Wazzu is the only dumb one
Your stock bubble resume. A decent collection of quality wins, but behind the backdrop of a lot of opportunities that make you wonder if they lost 1 or 2 too many. I'm coming around to being ok with them in the field.
USC (21-9) (10-7) NET 39 SoS 58
Vital signs: 8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 152, avg win 132
5-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Zona, N-LSU, @UCLA
Bad losses: Temple, @Utah?
Another stock bubble resume. Throw them in the bucket with ASU.
UCLA (18-11) (12-5) NET 75 SoS 56
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 209, avg win 117
6-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept Arizona and Colorado (!)
Bad losses: Cal St-Fullerton, Hofstra, @Wazzu
They lead the Pac-12. What a time to be alive. Non-con SoS is a problem, as is non-con performance (they went 6-6 with no Q1 or Q2 wins). Swept two quality teams, but after that and a home win over ASU, no other wins over tourney teams. I just can't imagine this team in right now.
Stanford (19-9) (8-7) NET 30 SoS 103
Vital signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 213, avg win 156
4-5 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Oregon, N-Oklahoma, @UCLA?
Bad losses: @Cal, OSU
The ultimate test of NET. SoS numbers are poor. A couple good wins, a couple bad losses, an otherwise unremarkable resume. But the NET is shiny. Who knows what they'll do.
NIT watch:
Utah (15-14) (6-11) NET 87 SoS 40 - beat BYU and Kentucky so they have a chance here.
Oregon St (15-13) (5-11) NET 72 SoS 106 - probably not, but 4 Q1 wins are worth noting.
Bubble watch: SEC
Lockbox:
Kentucky (24-5) (14-2) NET 14 SoS 80
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 161, avg win 117
7-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-MSU, Louisville, @TTU
Bad losses: Evansville lol. Also N-Utah
Marginal SoS numbers, but a strong group of Q1 wins. I'm more inclined to subscribe to the "everybody gets one" thought when it comes to that Evansville loss. I think the eye test moves them to the 2 line, if they hold serve.
Auburn (24-5) (11-5) NET 28 SoS 23
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 22, avg win 104
4-3 vs. Q1, 9-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kentucky, N-Richmond? LSU
Bad losses: @Mizzou and @Georgia are Q2-A, but I suppose they count
A shockingly light resume given the record and SoS. There's not a lot of impact wins here. They'll need help in seeding from the eye test...and I don't think they're going to get it. They feel destined for the 4 line in a western regional. Doesn't that just seem perfect for this resume?
Bubble:
LSU (20-9) (11-5) NET 32 SoS 13
Vital signs: 6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 8, avg win 117
4-7 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-URI, @Texas, Florida
Bad losses: @Vandy
Strong SoS numbers. Naturally, they lost almost all of their significant non-con games though. So there's not a lot of meat on the bones. Just to be safe, don't lose out.
Florida (18-11) (10-6) NET 33 SoS 34
Vital signs: 7-8 R/N, non-con SoS 18, avg win 113
4-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Auburn, N-Provi, N-Xavier
Bad losses: @Mizzou and @Ole Miss technically don't count, but still
3-7 true road record isn't great...they could use one more real quality win to feel safe. They still have Kentucky in the hopper, and I don't think the resume is good enough to automatically feel safe absorbing a loss there.
Mississippi St (19-10) (10-6) NET 52 SoS 59
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 99, avg win 130
2-6 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Florida, swept Arkansas? Bama?
Bad losses: La Tech, N-NMSU counts as a Q3, weirdly
The resume gives the impression they just haven't done enough. Needed maybe one more Q1 win to help balance out their numbers a bit better. True borderline case. No real path to resume improvement in the next week.
South Carolina (17-12) (9-7) NET 63 SoS 65
Vital signs: 6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 96, avg win 138
4-7 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kentucky, @UVa, @Arkansas?
Bad losses: Stetson, Boston U
Nominally listed at this point, with a couple key wins in pocket.
Alabama (16-13) (8-8) NET 40 SoS 17
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 45, avg win 112
1-7 vs. Q1, 7-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Auburn, LSU, Richmond
Bad losses: Penn, A&M
Really, honestly, just listed because of the NET (and I suppose 7 Q2 wins). Plenty of home wins (but a couple dumb home losses), and all the losses you'd expect. Pass.
Arkansas (18-11) (6-10) NET 46 SoS 31
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 10, avg win 122
2-6 vs. Q1, 3-5 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Bama, @Indiana
Bad losses: @WKU, @Mizzou?
3rd straight team with a very, very marginal resume.
NIT watch:
Tennessee (16-13) (8-8) NET 67 SoS 33 - I have to cut off the SEC bubble somewhere. UT's more or less on the level of the 3 teams above, but without the NET or signature wins in tow.
Georgia (14-14) (5-11) NET 84 SoS 29 - probably shouldn't make the NIT, but we've seen dumber selections before.
Kentucky (24-5) (14-2) NET 14 SoS 80
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 161, avg win 117
7-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-MSU, Louisville, @TTU
Bad losses: Evansville lol. Also N-Utah
Marginal SoS numbers, but a strong group of Q1 wins. I'm more inclined to subscribe to the "everybody gets one" thought when it comes to that Evansville loss. I think the eye test moves them to the 2 line, if they hold serve.
Auburn (24-5) (11-5) NET 28 SoS 23
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 22, avg win 104
4-3 vs. Q1, 9-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kentucky, N-Richmond? LSU
Bad losses: @Mizzou and @Georgia are Q2-A, but I suppose they count
A shockingly light resume given the record and SoS. There's not a lot of impact wins here. They'll need help in seeding from the eye test...and I don't think they're going to get it. They feel destined for the 4 line in a western regional. Doesn't that just seem perfect for this resume?
Bubble:
LSU (20-9) (11-5) NET 32 SoS 13
Vital signs: 6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 8, avg win 117
4-7 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-URI, @Texas, Florida
Bad losses: @Vandy
Strong SoS numbers. Naturally, they lost almost all of their significant non-con games though. So there's not a lot of meat on the bones. Just to be safe, don't lose out.
Florida (18-11) (10-6) NET 33 SoS 34
Vital signs: 7-8 R/N, non-con SoS 18, avg win 113
4-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Auburn, N-Provi, N-Xavier
Bad losses: @Mizzou and @Ole Miss technically don't count, but still
3-7 true road record isn't great...they could use one more real quality win to feel safe. They still have Kentucky in the hopper, and I don't think the resume is good enough to automatically feel safe absorbing a loss there.
Mississippi St (19-10) (10-6) NET 52 SoS 59
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 99, avg win 130
2-6 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Florida, swept Arkansas? Bama?
Bad losses: La Tech, N-NMSU counts as a Q3, weirdly
The resume gives the impression they just haven't done enough. Needed maybe one more Q1 win to help balance out their numbers a bit better. True borderline case. No real path to resume improvement in the next week.
South Carolina (17-12) (9-7) NET 63 SoS 65
Vital signs: 6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 96, avg win 138
4-7 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kentucky, @UVa, @Arkansas?
Bad losses: Stetson, Boston U
Nominally listed at this point, with a couple key wins in pocket.
Alabama (16-13) (8-8) NET 40 SoS 17
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 45, avg win 112
1-7 vs. Q1, 7-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Auburn, LSU, Richmond
Bad losses: Penn, A&M
Really, honestly, just listed because of the NET (and I suppose 7 Q2 wins). Plenty of home wins (but a couple dumb home losses), and all the losses you'd expect. Pass.
Arkansas (18-11) (6-10) NET 46 SoS 31
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 10, avg win 122
2-6 vs. Q1, 3-5 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Bama, @Indiana
Bad losses: @WKU, @Mizzou?
3rd straight team with a very, very marginal resume.
NIT watch:
Tennessee (16-13) (8-8) NET 67 SoS 33 - I have to cut off the SEC bubble somewhere. UT's more or less on the level of the 3 teams above, but without the NET or signature wins in tow.
Georgia (14-14) (5-11) NET 84 SoS 29 - probably shouldn't make the NIT, but we've seen dumber selections before.
Bubble watch: Big East
Lockbox:
Seton Hall (21-7) (13-3) NET 13 SoS 16
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 62, avg win 98
10-5 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Maryland, @Nova, swept BU/MU
Bad losses: @Iowa St
Probably a loss or two too many for the 1 line, but I'm finding it harder and harder to find teams to bump SHU down to the 3 line.
Villanova (22-7) (11-5) NET 16 SoS 4
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 38, avg win 100
7-6 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kansas, @Creighton, Butler
Bad losses: Providence at home?
They are 2-6 within Q1-A. This limits seed upside, but all the metrics are in great shape otherwise. Just feels like a 3 seed, can't quite make the argument for the 2 line at the moment. I think. I can be swayed on this though.
Creighton (21-6) (11-4) NET 8 SoS 24
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 129, avg win 100
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, @Nova, N-TTU
Bad losses: all inside Q1...@G'town?
Bad loss avoidance matters....signature road wins matter...they're in the middle of the 2 line discussion.
Butler (20-9) (8-8) NET 19 SoS 52
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 225, avg win 117
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, Nova, Marquette
Bad losses: G'town, @DePaul?
The non-con is more hurt by cupcakes, they at least beat Stanford and Purdue. So with that last concern off the board, I'll go ahead and lock them up.
Bubble:
Marquette (18-10) (8-8) NET 25 SoS 3
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 73, avg win 116
5-9 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Nova, Butler, @Xavier
Bad losses: swept by Provi?
They are 0-8 against Q1-A. That keeps them from the lockbox for now, just in case. But 5 Q1 wins should be enough to hold on. Just don't collapse.
Xavier (18-10) (7-8) NET 45 SoS 14
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 67, avg win 110
2-9 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, Cinci and Provi at home?
Bad losses: @Wake
Provi, Cincy, @St John's. Take your pick. One of those is Xavier's 2nd best win of the year. So many metrics are in favor of Xavier right now, but that's one potentially fatal flaw. A home game with Butler is in the hopper, and boy oh boy do they need that.
Providence (17-12) (10-6) NET 44 SoS 7
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 128, avg win 99
7-8 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, SHU, @Nova, @Butler, swept Marquette...
Bad losses: N-LBSU, N-Charleston, Penn, @Northwestern
Goodness gracious, this is a busy resume. Very strong SoS. 7 Q1 wins! 3 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss! The average win is below 100! But it's below 100 because they blew 4 cupcakes who would've dragged that average way down. I guess they have to go if they have that many signature wins (5 Q1-A wins!), but good god. This resume is drunk.
Georgetown (15-13) (5-10) NET 59 SoS 21
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 58, avg win 134
4-10 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, N-Texas, @Okla St?
Bad losses: technically UNCG is a Q3 loss, which is bullshit
A courtesy listing at this point, as they have games with Creighton and Nova in the hopper.
NIT watch:
St John's (14-14) (3-12) NET 74 SoS 46 - beat Zona and WVU, so a reasonable chance at the NIT.
Seton Hall (21-7) (13-3) NET 13 SoS 16
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 62, avg win 98
10-5 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Maryland, @Nova, swept BU/MU
Bad losses: @Iowa St
Probably a loss or two too many for the 1 line, but I'm finding it harder and harder to find teams to bump SHU down to the 3 line.
Villanova (22-7) (11-5) NET 16 SoS 4
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 38, avg win 100
7-6 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kansas, @Creighton, Butler
Bad losses: Providence at home?
They are 2-6 within Q1-A. This limits seed upside, but all the metrics are in great shape otherwise. Just feels like a 3 seed, can't quite make the argument for the 2 line at the moment. I think. I can be swayed on this though.
Creighton (21-6) (11-4) NET 8 SoS 24
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 129, avg win 100
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, @Nova, N-TTU
Bad losses: all inside Q1...@G'town?
Bad loss avoidance matters....signature road wins matter...they're in the middle of the 2 line discussion.
Butler (20-9) (8-8) NET 19 SoS 52
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 225, avg win 117
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, Nova, Marquette
Bad losses: G'town, @DePaul?
The non-con is more hurt by cupcakes, they at least beat Stanford and Purdue. So with that last concern off the board, I'll go ahead and lock them up.
Bubble:
Marquette (18-10) (8-8) NET 25 SoS 3
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 73, avg win 116
5-9 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Nova, Butler, @Xavier
Bad losses: swept by Provi?
They are 0-8 against Q1-A. That keeps them from the lockbox for now, just in case. But 5 Q1 wins should be enough to hold on. Just don't collapse.
Xavier (18-10) (7-8) NET 45 SoS 14
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 67, avg win 110
2-9 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, Cinci and Provi at home?
Bad losses: @Wake
Provi, Cincy, @St John's. Take your pick. One of those is Xavier's 2nd best win of the year. So many metrics are in favor of Xavier right now, but that's one potentially fatal flaw. A home game with Butler is in the hopper, and boy oh boy do they need that.
Providence (17-12) (10-6) NET 44 SoS 7
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 128, avg win 99
7-8 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, SHU, @Nova, @Butler, swept Marquette...
Bad losses: N-LBSU, N-Charleston, Penn, @Northwestern
Goodness gracious, this is a busy resume. Very strong SoS. 7 Q1 wins! 3 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss! The average win is below 100! But it's below 100 because they blew 4 cupcakes who would've dragged that average way down. I guess they have to go if they have that many signature wins (5 Q1-A wins!), but good god. This resume is drunk.
Georgetown (15-13) (5-10) NET 59 SoS 21
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 58, avg win 134
4-10 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, N-Texas, @Okla St?
Bad losses: technically UNCG is a Q3 loss, which is bullshit
A courtesy listing at this point, as they have games with Creighton and Nova in the hopper.
NIT watch:
St John's (14-14) (3-12) NET 74 SoS 46 - beat Zona and WVU, so a reasonable chance at the NIT.
Bubble watch: ACC
Lockbox:
Florida St (24-5) (14-4) NET 12 SoS 36
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 103, avg win 105
5-4 vs. Q1, 8-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept L'ville, @Florida, N-Purdue?
Bad losses: @Pitt, @Clemson?
A merely okay non-con results page, and a down ACC means the 1 line is probably out of play. And maybe the 2 line, but the ACCT will be a factor in that.
Louisville (23-6) (14-4) NET 9 SoS 27
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 27, avg win 122
4-5 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Duke, Michigan, @NC State?
Bad losses: @Ga Tech, @Clemson?
2 or 3 line, and I can't see them being higher or lower.
Duke (23-6) (13-5) NET 6 SoS 25
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 7, avg win 108
4-4 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Kansas, @MSU, FSU
Bad losses: @Wake, SFA, @Clemson?
That Wake loss is the one that's gonna hurt. That's a Q2 loss, and they probably have too much damage to make it to the 1 line. That said, there's 3 really signature wins on the board. On the other hand, those might be the only 3 teams they beat that will actually make the NCAAs. A lack of depth of signature wins could be worth a seed line or two.
Bubble:
Virginia (21-7) (13-5) NET 51 SoS 76
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 212, avg win 124
4-3 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Duke, FSU, N-Arizona St?
Bad losses: @BC, Syracuse and South Carolina at home
The bad NET and SoS numbers keep this resume from the lockbox for now. But I can't imagine them missing at this point. Especially because UL is still on the sked and that'll be a house money game.
North Carolina St (18-11) (9-9) NET 54 SoS 74
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 142
4-4 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Duke, Wisky, @Virginia
Bad losses: GT, UNC, @BC
3 Q3 losses is a problem; the rest of the resume reads like a typical bubble resume. With their SoS numbers in order this time around, I give them a fighting chance, so long as they avoid a dumb loss.
Clemson (15-13) (9-9) NET 73 SoS 38
Vital signs: 4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 174, avg win 135
3-6 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Duke, Louisville, FSU
Bad losses: Miami, VT, Yale, South Carolina, @Wake, @GT, @Minny?
This is an aggressive listing, since every metric but one is not good enough. But that signature win category. If they can keep a clean sheet in their final week, we'll have to take a longer look.
NIT watch:
Notre Dame (18-11) (9-9) NET 57 SoS 127 - non-con SoS in the 300s. Average win of 169. Best win is @Syracuse. Just can't make a case. Last chance saloon with a game at home vs. FSU coming.
Syracuse (16-13) (9-9) NET 70 SoS 50 - 2-7 vs. Q1, with a couple Q3 losses and middling SoS numbers. I don't see a path forward.
Georgia Tech (14-14) (9-9) NET 77 SoS 31 - seems to be good enough for a NIT bid if they can stay at .500.
Virginia Tech (15-13) (6-11) NET 85 SoS 114 - VT on the other hand, is not.
Florida St (24-5) (14-4) NET 12 SoS 36
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 103, avg win 105
5-4 vs. Q1, 8-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: swept L'ville, @Florida, N-Purdue?
Bad losses: @Pitt, @Clemson?
A merely okay non-con results page, and a down ACC means the 1 line is probably out of play. And maybe the 2 line, but the ACCT will be a factor in that.
Louisville (23-6) (14-4) NET 9 SoS 27
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 27, avg win 122
4-5 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Duke, Michigan, @NC State?
Bad losses: @Ga Tech, @Clemson?
2 or 3 line, and I can't see them being higher or lower.
Duke (23-6) (13-5) NET 6 SoS 25
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 7, avg win 108
4-4 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Kansas, @MSU, FSU
Bad losses: @Wake, SFA, @Clemson?
That Wake loss is the one that's gonna hurt. That's a Q2 loss, and they probably have too much damage to make it to the 1 line. That said, there's 3 really signature wins on the board. On the other hand, those might be the only 3 teams they beat that will actually make the NCAAs. A lack of depth of signature wins could be worth a seed line or two.
Bubble:
Virginia (21-7) (13-5) NET 51 SoS 76
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 212, avg win 124
4-3 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Duke, FSU, N-Arizona St?
Bad losses: @BC, Syracuse and South Carolina at home
The bad NET and SoS numbers keep this resume from the lockbox for now. But I can't imagine them missing at this point. Especially because UL is still on the sked and that'll be a house money game.
North Carolina St (18-11) (9-9) NET 54 SoS 74
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 142
4-4 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Duke, Wisky, @Virginia
Bad losses: GT, UNC, @BC
3 Q3 losses is a problem; the rest of the resume reads like a typical bubble resume. With their SoS numbers in order this time around, I give them a fighting chance, so long as they avoid a dumb loss.
Clemson (15-13) (9-9) NET 73 SoS 38
Vital signs: 4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 174, avg win 135
3-6 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Duke, Louisville, FSU
Bad losses: Miami, VT, Yale, South Carolina, @Wake, @GT, @Minny?
This is an aggressive listing, since every metric but one is not good enough. But that signature win category. If they can keep a clean sheet in their final week, we'll have to take a longer look.
NIT watch:
Notre Dame (18-11) (9-9) NET 57 SoS 127 - non-con SoS in the 300s. Average win of 169. Best win is @Syracuse. Just can't make a case. Last chance saloon with a game at home vs. FSU coming.
Syracuse (16-13) (9-9) NET 70 SoS 50 - 2-7 vs. Q1, with a couple Q3 losses and middling SoS numbers. I don't see a path forward.
Georgia Tech (14-14) (9-9) NET 77 SoS 31 - seems to be good enough for a NIT bid if they can stay at .500.
Virginia Tech (15-13) (6-11) NET 85 SoS 114 - VT on the other hand, is not.
Bubble watch: B1G
Lockbox:
Maryland (23-6) (13-5) NET 15 SoS 39
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 71, avg win 107
7-6 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @MSU, N-Marquette, @Illinois is Q1-A?
Bad losses: all are Q1-A
Their record within Q1-A is 3-6. That probably means the 1 line is out of play, but it's tough to imagine a B1G champ this year not on at least the 2 line. Probably a couple wins away from locking that up.
Michigan St (20-9) (12-6) NET 7 SoS 42
Vital signs: 9-6 R/N, non-con SoS 60, avg win 115
7-8 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, @Maryland, @Illinois is Q1-A?
Bad losses: N-Va Tech
Pretty standard good resume. Beating just about everyone at home, losing a majority of the toughest road games in conference. 4 line? 5 line? Either is reasonable.
Iowa (20-9) (11-7) NET 29 SoS 80
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 215, avg win 109
8-7 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Maryland, N-TTU, Ohio St
Bad losses: DePaul, @Nebraska
The schedule means they'll be a half-step behind the top of the conference.
Penn St (21-8) (11-7) NET 26 SoS 330
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 330, avg win 120
7-6 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @MSU, Maryland, @Michigan
Bad losses: N-Ole Miss
That schedule might very well cost PSU a seed line. Be warned. All their other metrics are more or less in line with other 5 and 6 seeds, but that SoS number. Yikes
Michigan (18-10) (9-8) NET 24 SoS 54
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 137, avg win 119
7-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: MSU, N-Gonzaga, Creighton
Bad losses: none, really
They might have an uncomfortable number of losses for a 6 or 7 seed, but it feels like they're tracking in that direction.
Wisconsin (18-10) (11-6) NET 27 SoS 19
Vital signs: 5-9 R/N, non-con SoS 37, avg win 106
8-8 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: MSU, Maryland, @OSU and UM
Bad losses: N-New Mexico
5-4 vs. Q1-A. So they can easily survive a bunch more losses. Quality wins up and down the board, good SoS numbers. Will be seeded higher than people think, IMO.
Ohio St (19-9) (9-8) NET 17 SoS 67
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 101, avg win 134
5-8 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Kentucky, Maryland, Nova
Bad losses: I suppose Minnesota at home
I suppose it's possible they lose 4 in a row, but let's go ahead and lock them up anyways. The average win number is pretty darn low for a B1G team this year, given the conference strength. So the seed might take a hit there.
Bubble:
Illinois (18-9) (11-6) NET 36 SoS 94
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 252, avg win 139
5-7 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Michigan, @PSU, @Wisky
Bad losses: Miami, N-Mizzou
Holding back on a lock, as the SoS numbers are not great and the average win mark is down. However, 6-5 in road games, with a few quality road wins in there, is an encouraging sign for candidacy.
Rutgers (17-11) (9-9) NET 35 SoS 43
Vital signs: 1-10 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 136
3-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Seton Hall, PSU, Wisky
Bad losses: N-St Bonaventure, @Pitt
1-8 true road record. That's a major problem. Sure, many of those are Q1-A games....but you gotta win one of them. Just one. Their one road win is Nebraska. Their SoS numbers and Seton Hall win is more likely to save them than not, but this is gonna be close.
Indiana (18-10) (8-9) NET 55 SoS 53
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 78, avg win 125
6-8 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: FSU, MSU, PSU
Bad losses: Arkansas at home probably
Only 2 true road wins is a problem, but at least 1 is a half-decent Minny team. Basically, they win their home games (with a couple bad exceptions), and they lose their road games (with a couple expected exceptions. The SoS numbers are good enough, the NET number isn't, but it isn't clear that number actually matters. I'd suggest a couple more wins to get home free.
Purdue (15-14) (8-10) NET 34 SoS 48
Vital signs: 4-10 R/N, non-con SoS 83, avg win 127
4-11 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: MSU, Wisky, Iowa
Bad losses: @Nebraska, Texas at home?
At some point, you just absorb too many losses. If they can't beat Iowa on the road, they'll end up with 16 losses if they're in the at-large pool. That's just probably too many. If they had a road win better than Indiana, I'd be more optimistic.
NIT watch:
Minnesota (13-14) (7-10) NET 49 SoS 40 - under .500, 2-8 true road record. Probably safe to dismiss at this point. Road games left at Wisky and Indiana, so I'm not sure they can actually make it. All the other B1G bubble teams have a win over a top-4ish projected seed. Minny does not.
Maryland (23-6) (13-5) NET 15 SoS 39
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 71, avg win 107
7-6 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @MSU, N-Marquette, @Illinois is Q1-A?
Bad losses: all are Q1-A
Their record within Q1-A is 3-6. That probably means the 1 line is out of play, but it's tough to imagine a B1G champ this year not on at least the 2 line. Probably a couple wins away from locking that up.
Michigan St (20-9) (12-6) NET 7 SoS 42
Vital signs: 9-6 R/N, non-con SoS 60, avg win 115
7-8 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, @Maryland, @Illinois is Q1-A?
Bad losses: N-Va Tech
Pretty standard good resume. Beating just about everyone at home, losing a majority of the toughest road games in conference. 4 line? 5 line? Either is reasonable.
Iowa (20-9) (11-7) NET 29 SoS 80
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 215, avg win 109
8-7 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Maryland, N-TTU, Ohio St
Bad losses: DePaul, @Nebraska
The schedule means they'll be a half-step behind the top of the conference.
Penn St (21-8) (11-7) NET 26 SoS 330
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 330, avg win 120
7-6 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @MSU, Maryland, @Michigan
Bad losses: N-Ole Miss
That schedule might very well cost PSU a seed line. Be warned. All their other metrics are more or less in line with other 5 and 6 seeds, but that SoS number. Yikes
Michigan (18-10) (9-8) NET 24 SoS 54
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 137, avg win 119
7-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: MSU, N-Gonzaga, Creighton
Bad losses: none, really
They might have an uncomfortable number of losses for a 6 or 7 seed, but it feels like they're tracking in that direction.
Wisconsin (18-10) (11-6) NET 27 SoS 19
Vital signs: 5-9 R/N, non-con SoS 37, avg win 106
8-8 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: MSU, Maryland, @OSU and UM
Bad losses: N-New Mexico
5-4 vs. Q1-A. So they can easily survive a bunch more losses. Quality wins up and down the board, good SoS numbers. Will be seeded higher than people think, IMO.
Ohio St (19-9) (9-8) NET 17 SoS 67
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 101, avg win 134
5-8 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Kentucky, Maryland, Nova
Bad losses: I suppose Minnesota at home
I suppose it's possible they lose 4 in a row, but let's go ahead and lock them up anyways. The average win number is pretty darn low for a B1G team this year, given the conference strength. So the seed might take a hit there.
Bubble:
Illinois (18-9) (11-6) NET 36 SoS 94
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 252, avg win 139
5-7 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Michigan, @PSU, @Wisky
Bad losses: Miami, N-Mizzou
Holding back on a lock, as the SoS numbers are not great and the average win mark is down. However, 6-5 in road games, with a few quality road wins in there, is an encouraging sign for candidacy.
Rutgers (17-11) (9-9) NET 35 SoS 43
Vital signs: 1-10 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 136
3-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Seton Hall, PSU, Wisky
Bad losses: N-St Bonaventure, @Pitt
1-8 true road record. That's a major problem. Sure, many of those are Q1-A games....but you gotta win one of them. Just one. Their one road win is Nebraska. Their SoS numbers and Seton Hall win is more likely to save them than not, but this is gonna be close.
Indiana (18-10) (8-9) NET 55 SoS 53
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 78, avg win 125
6-8 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: FSU, MSU, PSU
Bad losses: Arkansas at home probably
Only 2 true road wins is a problem, but at least 1 is a half-decent Minny team. Basically, they win their home games (with a couple bad exceptions), and they lose their road games (with a couple expected exceptions. The SoS numbers are good enough, the NET number isn't, but it isn't clear that number actually matters. I'd suggest a couple more wins to get home free.
Purdue (15-14) (8-10) NET 34 SoS 48
Vital signs: 4-10 R/N, non-con SoS 83, avg win 127
4-11 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: MSU, Wisky, Iowa
Bad losses: @Nebraska, Texas at home?
At some point, you just absorb too many losses. If they can't beat Iowa on the road, they'll end up with 16 losses if they're in the at-large pool. That's just probably too many. If they had a road win better than Indiana, I'd be more optimistic.
NIT watch:
Minnesota (13-14) (7-10) NET 49 SoS 40 - under .500, 2-8 true road record. Probably safe to dismiss at this point. Road games left at Wisky and Indiana, so I'm not sure they can actually make it. All the other B1G bubble teams have a win over a top-4ish projected seed. Minny does not.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)